lecture 2: elasticity, control on prices & production given to the emba 8400 class classroom...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lecture 2: Elasticity, Control on Prices & Production
Given to theGiven to theEMBA 8400 ClassEMBA 8400 Class
Classroom South #608Classroom South #608January 6, 2007January 6, 2007
Dr. Rajeev DhawanDr. Rajeev DhawanDirectorDirector
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Chapter 5
Elasticity
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Elasticity & Its Application Evaluating questions like-
– Banana Republic store manager/headquarters needs to decide on sale on jeans vs. sale on shirts
– Rain destroys strawberry crop, prices go . Does it benefit growers ?
– Why don’t you ever see sale or discounts on pure milk but see it on orange juice ?
These can be answered with the concept of elasticity (or responsiveness of buyers & sellers to changes in market conditions)
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Elasticity
Price elasticity of demand: a measure of how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of that good
P rice e las tic ity o f d em an d =P ercen tag e ch an g e in q u an tity d em an d ed
P ercen tag e ch an g e in p rice
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Continued.. Two types of demand:
– Elastic – responds a lot e.g. luxury cars ( luxuries)– Inelastic – not much change e.g. milk, certain food
items, gasoline ( necessities) Preferences: Luxuries vs. Necessities Availability of close substitutes: Elastic
– Butter & margarine; cars, booze Time horizon:
– Gasoline – necessity in short run– Substitute long run (electric cars, walk, bike)
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Elasticity
Inelastic Demand– Quantity demanded does not respond strongly
to price changes.– Price elasticity of demand is < one.
Elastic Demand– Quantity demanded responds strongly to
changes in price.– Price elasticity of demand is > one.
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Demand Curves
Question: Can I tell from the graphical shape of the demand curve what kind of elasticity the curve has?
Answer: Yes, but not all the time.
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Perfectly Inelastic Demand
Elasticity = 0
$5
4
Quantity
Demand
1000
1. Anincreasein price . . .
2. . . . leaves the quantity demanded unchanged.
Price
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 100
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Inelastic Demand
Elasticity < 1
Quantity0
$5
90
Demand1. A 22%increasein price . . .
Price
2. . . . leads to an 11% decrease in quantity demanded.
4
100
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 90
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Unit Elastic Demand
Elasticity = 1
Quantity0
$5
80
1. A 22%increasein price . . .
Price
2. . . . leads to a 22% decrease in quantity demanded.
4
100
Demand
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 80
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Elastic Demand
Elasticity > 1
Quantity0
$5
50
1. A 22%increasein price . . .
Price
2. . . . leads to a 67% decrease in quantity demanded.
4
100
Demand
3. . . . revenue goes from $4 x 100 to $5 x 50
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Perfectly Elastic Demand
Elasticity = Infinity
Quantity0
Price
$4 Demand
2. At exactly $4,consumers willbuy any quantity.
1. At any priceabove $4, quantitydemanded is zero.
3. At a price below $4,quantity demanded is infinite.
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Relationship Between Total Revenue (Sales) & Elasticity
Total Revenue = Price x Qty Sold = P x Qty If demand is elastic, then a price decrease
increases revenue If demand is inelastic, then a price increase
increases revenueExample class to contribute
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Box Shows the 50% Drop of New Paying Customers for the May & August 2004 Conference Caused by the Latest Price Hike
Conference Date Attendance New Paying % of Total
Feb’ 01 72 6 8%
May’ 01 66 10 15%
Aug’ 01 101 31 31%
Nov’ 01 163 49 30%
Feb’ 02 189 28 15%
May’ 02 160 42 26%
Aug’ 02 195 62 32%
Nov’ 02 169 44 26%
Feb’ 03 260 55 21%
May’ 03 196 37 19%
Aug’ 03 220 43 20%
Nov’ 03 222 40 18%
Feb’ 04 238 48 20%
May’ 04 201 25 12%
Aug’ 04 211 23 11%
1st Price Hike
2nd Price Hike
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Applications of Supply, Demand & Elasticity
Can good news for farmers be bad news for farmers?
Wheat is inelastic: Bumper crop bad news
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Increase In Supply In Market For Wheat
Quantity ofWheat
0
Price ofWheat
3. . . . and a proportionately smallerincrease in quantity sold. As a result,revenue falls from $300 to $220.
Demand
S1 S2
2. . . . leadsto a large fallin price . . .
1. When demand is inelastic,an increase in supply . . .
2
110
$3
100
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Chapter 6
Controls on Prices
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Controls on Prices Price Ceiling (e.g. rent control)
– A legal maximum on the price at which a good can be sold.
– If the price ceiling is set below the equilibrium price, it leads to a shortage.
Price Floor (e.g. minimum wage)– A legal minimum on the price at which a good
can be sold.– If the price ceiling is set above the equilibrium
price, it leads to a surplus.
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Price Ceiling:
Pints0
Beer
Demand
Supply
2 PriceceilingShortage
75
Quantitysupplied
125
Quantitydemanded
Equilibriumprice
$3
…Rent Control TooBeer Shortage
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Price Floor: Beer Surplus
Quantity ofBeer
0
Price ofBeer
Demand
Supply
Quantitysupplied
Quantitydemanded
Equilibriumprice
$3
$4Pricefloor
Surplus
75 125
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Article: Too Many Cars, WSJ; by: Paul Ingrassia
Overcapacity is the biggest problem for any automobile company in the world GM buys Daewoo Motor, Fiat Auto, Saab Ford motor owns Mazda, Land Rover Daimler Chrysler is riding to rescue Mitsubishi Oldsmobile and Chrysler’s Plymouth, are the first major automobile
companies in 40 years
Why do ailing automobile companies who decry overcapacity keep ailing car companies?
• National pride plays a big role• More brands mean more dealerships mean more sales.• But this also means more costs and complexity in business operations.
In reality, overcapacity is not really a problem.One man’s overcapacity is other’s bargain.Thus, lower priced leases and generous rebates abound in today’s
car market.
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Chapter 2
Production
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Production
What is production?– The activity by which we convert inputs (labor,
land & capital) into goods and services
What limits production?– Inputs (resources)– TechnologyGovernment interference
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Circular Flow Diagram
Spending
Goods andservicesbought
Goodsand servicessold
Labor, land,and capital
Income
= Flow of inputs and outputs
= Flow of dollars
Factors ofproduction
Wages, rent,and profit
FIRMS•Produce and sellgoods and services
•Hire and use factorsof production
•Buy and consumegoods and services
•Own and sell factorsof production
HOUSEHOLDS
•Households sell•Firms buy
MARKETSFOR
FACTORS OF PRODUCTION
•Firms sell•Households buy
MARKETSFOR
GOODS AND SERVICES
Circular Flow Diagram
Revenue
= Flow of inputs and outputs
= Flow of dollars
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Production Possibilities Frontier
Definition: the amount of goods a firm or society can produce given a fixed amount of land, labor and other inputs.
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Production Possibilities Frontier
b
d .
a
c
4,000
E
Quantity of
Beer Produced
2,000
700
2,100
750
3,000
1,000
Quantity ofPretzels
Produced
A
1,000
300
B
0
D
2,200
600
C
Productionpossibilitiesfrontier
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Production Function I
Production Function
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10
Input
Y
Y (Production) = F (Inputs)Y (Production) = F (Inputs)Input Y MP0 0
1.001 1
1.002 2
1.003 3
1.004 4
1.005 5 Marginal Product (MP) = ∆ Output / ∆Input
Y = IY = I
Marginal Product: it is the increase in output that arises from an additional unit of input.
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Production Function II
Production Function
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 2 4 6 8 10
Input
Y
Y = IY = I22Input Y MP0 0
1.001 1
3.002 4
5.003 9
7.004 16
9.005 25 Marginal Product (MP) = ∆ Output / ∆Input
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Production Function III
Production Function
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 2 4 6 8 10
Input
Y
Y = Y = √I√IInput Y MP0 0
1.001 1
0.412 1.4
0.323 1.7
0.274 2
0.245 2.2 Marginal Product (MP) = ∆ Output / ∆Input
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Returns to Scale Returns to Scale: the property of the production function
that when you double your inputs, your output either doubles, more than doubles, or less than doubles.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
DRS
CRS
IRS
MP MP ↑ ↑ IRS IRSMP MP ↓ ↓ DRS DRS
Y=IY=I
Y=IY=I22
Y = √IY = √I
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Article: Japanese Auto Giants Accelerate Shift to U.S. WSJ; by: Shirouzu, Zaun
For Japanese auto giants Toyota, Honda, Nissan, what American consumers want is becoming more important than the wish lists of consumers in Japan’s shrinking market
The Japanese are accelerating their shift away from their home market, which they see headed for long-term decline
Simple Math: With the market shrinking back home, even boosting your share of the pie might not mean higher sales and profit for Japanese– Weak yen helps Japanese car makers– Japanese companies don't have pension and health-care
costs – Customization for high demand products– Quality takes a back seat?
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Automobile Industry
Economic Analysis of
General Motors – Light Truck Sector
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Strengths
General Motors is currently a dominant force in the North American light truck market.
Strong history and brand name
Limited competition from foreign firms in the past
Owns GMAC Financing, so can offer financing incentives
Global automotive sales leader since 1931
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Strengths
8.6 million cars and trucks sold in 2002
15% of global vehicle market
Controls almost a third of the US market
2002 U.S. industry sales records for total trucks and SUVs, 2003 may be the 3rd in a row of increased market share in US
341,000 employees, 32 countries
Vehicles sold in over 190 countries
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Figure 1. Number of Employees
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Chrysler
Daihatsu
Ford
Fuji (Subaru)
GM
Honda
Isuzu
Mazda
Nissan
Suzuki
Toyota
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2003 Market Share of U.S. Retail Light Truck Sales
26%
31%
19%
9%
3%
6%
0%
1%
5% Company
Ford
GM
Daimler/Chrysler
Toyota
Nissan
Honda
Isuzu
Mazda
Other
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Weaknesses GM’s productivity at 24 labor hrs/vehicle
is the second lowest
GM has huge pension liabilities; $1900 per vehicle (retiree pension and health care)
Along with other US manufacturers Health care costs for all employees vs. overseas mfg with national health
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Opportunities
Efficiency improvements through flexible manufacturing techniques, benchmarking Toyota to reduce costs
Product differentiation through options, like body styles, power packages, chassis.
Lead in Environment and Safety - Experimental fuel hybrid that is more advanced than Honda and Toyota
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Industry Costs
Emissions, fuel efficiency, safety, performance, and technology
Vehicle updates lead to increased design, production, testing, marketing, and advertising costs
Steel as input cost
Pension costs
Product liability lawsuits
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Economies of Scale
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Macroeconomic Factors
Key macroeconomics factors that influence new truck demand :
Consumer income
Unemployment level
Personal income growth
Inflation and interest rates
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Current GDP growth
Recession
Current Trade Deficit- FE Rates (U$, ¥)
Monetary & Fiscal Policy
Extraneous forces - OPEC oil prices
Labor Unions (UAW, etc)
Other Macroeconomics Factors
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Comparative Efficiency of US & Japanese Automakers: A Stochastic Frontier
Production Function Approach
Rajeev Dhawan & Marvin LiebermanRCB & The Anderson School at UCLA
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Figure 3a. Capital Stock per Worker (Japan)
0
50
100
150
200
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Th
ou
san
ds
of
1982
do
lla
rs
Daihatsu
Fuji (Subaru)
Honda
Isuzu
Mazda
Nissan
Suzuki
Toyota
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Figure 3b. Capital Stock per Worker (US)
0
50
100
150
200
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Th
ou
san
ds
of
1982
do
lla
rs
Chrysler
Ford
GM
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Figure 4. Cumulative Output of Vehicles
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Chrysler
Daihatsu
Ford
Fuji (Subaru)
GM
Honda
Isuzu
Mazda
Nissan
Suzuki
Toyota
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Figure 5. WIP/Sales Ratio
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Chrysler
Daihatsu
Ford
Fuji (Subaru)
GM
Honda
Isuzu
Mazda
Nissan
Suzuki
Toyota
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Figure 6. Average Vehicle Output per Plant
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Chrysler
Daihatsu
Ford
Fuji (Subaru)
GM
Honda
Isuzu
Mazda
Nissan
Suzuki
Toyota
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Figure 7. Value-added/Sales (Vertical Integration)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Chrysler Daihatsu Ford Fuji (Subaru)
GM Honda Isuzu Mazda
Nissan Suzuki Toyota
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Table 1A. Comparison of OLS and SFPF Estimates
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Observations from technical efficiency scatter plot (Japanese producers):
Technical efficiency increased 50% from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s. Little growth in subsequent years, even a decline.
Toyota has the highest technical efficiency (A close second is Honda). Toyota’s lead in technical efficiency is smaller than its lead in labor productivity.
A number of the Japanese producers have historical performance that is well below the efficiency frontier.
Efficiency estimates fluctuate with business cycle.
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Observations from technical efficiency scatter plot (US producers):
GM’s efficiency is slightly above the Japanese level in the mid-1960s. By the 1990s, GM’s efficiency falls below that of all Japanese producers except Fuji and Mazda.
Chrysler’s efficiency falls sharply in the late 1970s but recovers strongly in the 1980s. Ford also shows strong improvement in the 1980s. Both Chrysler and Ford have efficiency levels comparable to the Japanese average in the late 1980s and 1990s.
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Conclusion Get away from firm-size issue and focus on cutting
inventory (WIP) costs via flexible plants and JIT inventory methods i.e. suppliers
Increase speed of new product introduction to market - benchmark Toyota
Make cars that people in cities want not when you go Pheasant hunting in South Dakota!