lecture 12: archival research. paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under...

Lecture 12: Archival Research

Paradoxical Effects of Supportive Audiences on Performance Under Pressure:

The Home Field Disadvantage in Sports Championships

Baumeister and Steinhilber (1984)

Research Question

The heightened self-attention caused by the prospect of imminent success may ironically hamper the performance that is supposed to bring about that very success. (p. 86)

Two possibilities– Attention to the self is distracting– Attention to the self interferes with automatic

processes

World Series Winners (1924-1982) Note: Excludes 10 Sweeps

38.51610Game 7

40.82920Last Game

60.239591 And 2

Home %VisitorHomeGames

Winners

NBA Championship and Semifinal Results (1967-1982)

38.585Game 7

46.32219Last Game

70.1491151-4

Home %VisitorHomeGames

Winners

Outcome of Game 6 in World Series (One Team will have 3 Wins and the Other Team will

have 2 Wins)

37.5106Home Can Clinch

72.7616Home Must Win

Home %VisitorHomePressure

Winners

Free-Throw Performances in NBA Championships (1967-1982)

73%72%Scoring %

Last Game:

74%69%Scoring %

Games 1-4:

VisitorHome

Basic Characteristics of Archival Research

Analysis of Existing Information Requires a Translation of Existing Records into IVs

and DVs– Standard Measurement Concerns – Reliability and Validity

Subject to all of the standard threats to internal validity and the standards concerns over non-experimental research.

Often we think of archival analysis as the use of existing research archives…

Survey Archives

Descriptive Information External Validity is often Maximized R. B. Cattell: “I have always felt justifiably

suspicious of theory built much ahead of data”

Very low cost Disadvantages: Often S-Data with limited

measurement options.

The 2005 Youth Risk Behavior The 2005 Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBSS):Survey (YRBSS):

Download: http://www.cdc.gov/HealthyYouth/yrbs/data/index.htm

Focus of the Survey

Behaviors that contribute to unintentional injuries and maladaptive health habits among youth. Including:– ATOD– Sexual behaviors– Unhealthy dietary behaviors– Inadequate physical activity

Leading Causes of Death Among Persons Aged 10 – 24 Years in the United States, 2003

Suicide11%

Motor Vehicle Crashes

31%

Other Unintentional

Injuries14%

Other Causes29%

Homicide15%

Leading Causes of Death Among Persons Aged 25 Years and Older in the United States, 2003

Cancer23%

Cardiovascular Disease

38%

Diabetes3%

Other Causes36%

Characteristics of the Survey

9th – 12th grade students Probability sample of schools Anonymous, self-administered questionnaires

that are completed in one class period (45 minutes)

Usually collected during the Spring

2005 Survey

National probability sample of public and private schools

Total sample size = 13,917 School-level response rate = 78%

– 159 out of 203 schools

Student-level response rate = 86%– 13,917 out of 16,262 students

Response Rates and Sample Sizes National YRBS, 1991 – 2005

13,91715,21413,60115,34916,26210,90416,29612,272Sample size

86%

78%

2005

83%83%86%87%86%90%90%Student response rate

81%75%77%79%70%78%75%School response rate

2003200119991997199519931991

Copyright restrictions may apply.

Rubinstein, S. et al. JAMA 2000;283:1569.

Trend in BMI of Miss America Pageant Winners from 1922 to 1999

ATOD use

* Had at least one drink of alcohol on ≥ 1 days during their life** W, H > B

National Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2005

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Lifetime Alcohol Use,* by Sex and

Race/Ethnicity,** 2005

73.874.3 74.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Female Male White Black Hispanic

Percen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Lifetime Alcohol Use,* 1991 – 2005

National Youth Risk Behavior Surveys, 1991 – 2005

* Had at least one drink of alcohol on ≥ 1 days during their life1 Significant linear decrease and quadratic change, P < .05

81.6

80.9

80.4

79.1

81.0

74.31

74.9

78.2

0 20 40 60 80 100

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Current Alcohol Use,* by Sex and


* Had at least one drink of alcohol on 1 of the 30 days preceding the survey** W, H > B


43.843.3 42.8

0

20

40

60

80

100


Percen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Current Alcohol Use,* 1991 – 2005

* Had at least 1 drink of alcohol on 1 of the 30 days preceding the survey1 Significant linear decrease and quadratic change, P < .05


50.8

48.0

51.6

50.8

50.0

43.31

44.9

47.1

0 20 40 60

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Episodic Heavy Drinking,* by Sex**

and Race/Ethnicity,*** 2005

* Had 5 drinks of alcohol in a row (i.e., within a couple of hours) on 1 of the 30 days preceding the survey ** M > F*** W > H > B


27.529.9

11.1

25.325.5

23.5

0

10

20

30

40


Per

cen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Episodic Heavy Drinking,* 1991 –

2005

* Had 5 drinks of alcohol in a row (i.e., within a couple of hours) on 1 of the 30 days preceding the survey1 Significant linear decrease and quadratic change, P < .05


31.3

30.0

32.6

33.4

31.5

25.51

28.3

29.9

-5 5 15 25 35

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

* Other than a few sips** M > F*** B, H > W

Percentage of High School Students Who Drank Alcohol for the First Time Before Age 13 Years,* by Sex** and Race/Ethnicity,*** 2005


29.2

23.7

27.929.8

25.6

22.0

0

10

20

30


Per

cen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Drank Alcohol for the First Time Before Age 13 Years,* 1991 – 2005

* Other than a few sips1 Significant linear decrease and quadratic change, P < .05


32.7

32.9

32.4

31.1

32.2

25.61

27.8

29.1

0 20 40

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Lifetime Marijuana Use,* by Sex**

and Race/Ethnicity,*** 2005

* Used marijuana one or more times during their life** M > F*** H > W


40.938.0 40.7 42.638.4

35.9

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Lifetime Marijuana Use,* 1991 – 2005

* Used marijuana one or more times during their life1 Significant linear increase and quadratic change, P < .05


31.3

32.8

42.4

47.1

47.2

38.41

40.2

42.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Lifetime Inhalant Use,* by Sex** and Race/Ethnicity,*** 2005

* Sniffed glue, breathed the contents of aerosol spray cans, or inhaled any paints or sprays to get high one or more times during their life** F > M*** W, H > B


11.3

13.4

6.8

13.012.4 13.5

0

5

10

15

20

25


Per

cen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Reported Lifetime Inhalant Use,* 1995 – 2005


* Sniffed glue, breathed the contents of aerosol spray cans, or inhaled any paints or sprays to get high one or more times during their life1 Significant linear decrease and quadratic change, P < .05

20.3

16.0

14.6

12.41

12.1

14.7

0 10 20 30

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Sexual Behavior

Percentage of High School Students Who Ever Had Sexual Intercourse, by Sex and

Race/Ethnicity,* 2005

* B > H > W


47.943.0

67.6

51.045.7

46.8

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Ever Had Sexual Intercourse, 1991 – 2005

1 Significant linear decrease, P < .05


54.1

53.0

53.1

48.4

49.9

46.81

46.7

45.6

0 20 40 60

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Percentage of High School Students Who Had First Sexual Intercourse Before Age 13 Years, by Sex* and


* M > F** B > H > W


8.8

4.0

16.5

7.36.2

3.7

0

5

10

15

20


Per

cen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Had First Sexual Intercourse Before Age 13 Years,

1991 – 2005

1 Significant linear decrease, P < .05


10.2

9.2

8.9

7.2

8.3

6.21

7.4

6.6

0 5 10 15

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Percentage of High School Students Who Were Currently Sexually Active,* by Sex and


* Had sexual intercourse with ≥ 1 persons during the 3 months preceding the survey** B > W, H


33.3 32.0

47.4

35.033.9 34.6

0

10

20

30

40

50


Per

cen

t

Percentage of High School Students Who Were Currently Sexually Active,* 1991 – 2005


* Had sexual intercourse with ≥ 1 persons during the 3 months preceding the survey1 Significant linear decrease, P < .05

37.5

37.5

37.9

34.8

36.3

33.91

34.3

33.4

0 10 20 30 40 50

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percent

Percentage of High School Students Who Were Taught in School about AIDS or HIV infection, by Sex and

Race/Ethnicity,* 2005

* W > B, H


87.2 89.486.3 84.7

87.9 88.5

0

20

40

60

80

100


Per

cen

t

Physical Activity

Percentage of High School Students Who Met Currently Recommended Levels of Physical Activity,* by Sex** and

Race/Ethnicity,*** 200543.8

38.7

29.5

32.9

35.8

27.8

0

10

20

30

40


Per

cen

t

* Were physically active doing any kind of physical activity that increased their heart rate and made them breathe hard some of the time for a total of at least 60 minutes/day on ≥ 5 of the 7 days preceding the survey** M > F*** W > B, H


Percentage of High School Students Who Played Video or Computer Games or Used a Computer for ≥ 3 Hours/Day,* by Sex** and Race/Ethnicity,*** 2005

27.4

19.6

25.2

19.821.1

14.8

0

10

20

30


Per

cen

t

* On an average school day, for something that is not school work ** M > F*** B > W, H


Percentage of High School Students Who Watched ≥ 3 Hours/Day of Television,* by Sex and Race/Ethnicity,** 2005

* On an average school day** B > H > W


38.0

29.2

64.1

45.8

36.337.2

0

20

40

60


Pe

rce

nt

Temperature and Aggression(e.g., Anderson, 1987, 1989; Anderson &

Anderson, 1996; Bushman, Wang, & Anderson, 2005)

Shakespeare…from Anderson (1989)

I pray thee good Mercutio, let’s retire;

The day is hot, the Capulets, abroad,

And, if we meet, we shall not ‘scape a brawl,

For now these hot days, is the mad blood stirring.

--Romeo & Juliet

Some Approaches to the Issue

Negative Affect Escape: NA instigates competing tendencies of Aggression or Escape. At low to moderate levels of NA Aggression whereas at high levels of NA Escape.

Simple NA Model: Heat NA Aggression Cognitive Neoassociation Model: Uncomfortable

conditions prime aggressive thoughts which increase the motive to aggress

Some Basic Findings from Archival Studies

Temper and Temperature on the Diamond: The Heat-Aggression Relationship in Major League Baseball

Source: Reifman, Larrick, & Fein (1991)

Details

Random sample of games from the 1986 (n=215), 1987 (n=304), and 1988 (n=307) MLB seasons.

For each selected game: Recorded the number of players hit by pitch (HBP) and the high temperature in home city on that day.

Control Variables: walks, wild pitches, passed balls, home runs, and attendance.

Results

r between temperature and HBP: .11 Effect held controlling for other variables. Also found the same effect in the 1962

season (r = .10) Results support an association between

temperature and aggression. Effect size? Consider that there are over

2,000 games during one full season of MLB.

The Number of Batters Hit by Pitchers Increases with Temperature

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

70 70 -79 80-89 90 +

Temperature

HB

P p

er G

ame

lecture 12: archival research. paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under...

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