lecture 10 demography, family planning and the one child policy

8/6/2019 Lecture 10 Demography, Family Planning and the One Child Policy

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Lecture 10

Demography, Family Planning and the OneChild Policy


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Demography in Traditional Societies

In traditional societies population growth rates are low(about 0.4% per year)

Between 1400 and 1850, China grew from 72 million to412 million (1/3 of worlds population)

This is despite birth rates in developing countries(including China) are high (30 to 40 per 1000) eachwomen had, on average, 6 children but so are deathrates (20 to 40 per 1000) . so population is in aprecarious balance

China was in same demographic pattern through 1949 birth rates still very high but civil war and famineand poor sanitation kept death rates high In 1952, population of China was 552 million (from 1850 to 1950

growth rate was 0.03% -- lower than previous 500 years)


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Demographic Transition

Phase I Nutrition and sanitation improves, health

of the population improves death rates

decline (and infants mortality falls) Birth rates do not fall right away

Therefore: population accelerates up to

3% per year


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Figure VII-1: Crude Birth and Death Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

VitalRatesper100

Births

Deaths

Hi birth rates; low death rates

hi population growth rates


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

VitalRatesper100

Births

Deaths

Disruption from the Great

Leap


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Demographic Transition

Phase II Population explosion does not last forever

In countries that are growing anddeveloping, birth rates begin to decline.

What causes birth rates to decline:

Families adjust to higher survival rates Adjust their family target rate


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How is target rate decided?

Economics of Children

Two sets of benefits and costs:

Pre-modern

After growth starts


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Risk and Information

Behavioral Determinants

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6

Risk Costly Selfish Consump. Effort Risk

Information (+) (-) Averse

C1

Assymetric Information

C2Incentive Problems

(Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection)

C4 Demand for Insurance

Preferences, Environmentand Fertility Behavior in Rural

ChinaEnvironment:

Risk and costlypoor information Preferences


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Children as tools of economic:

we will see that many of the benefits of children are particularly great forparents in agrarian developing countries because material and behavioral

determinants have created an economic environment in which families:

demand labor for their on-farm activities

lack credit

demand insurance because of the riskiness of agriculture in theabsence of insurance markets

children are able to play a role in allowing the family to access the thingsthey demand: labor, insurance, and credit.


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Cost B fitsofChil :

Costs:

E i

M t r

F , l t i , lt r; il r ; ti

I li it

C il r l t l f r i ti ( llt r)

Deciding on the target: given the decision making

environment, count up the costs and benefits


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Benefits:

Laborsource of income: children become family

members (have full incentives to work hard and are not subject

to moral hazard problems like hired labor). In other words,having children produce a superior form of labor. Less likely

to leave the job, even if punish. Children can do many thingsin the household, including housework and helping to raise

other children.

Insurance: Children take care of parents when they are old.

Skilled laborsource of income + insurance: Can get a joboutside of the farm that increases productivity and can lead tocovarying income source.


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Be ef t

Boys more valued than girls if the tradition is for malechildren to marry in the village and female children to marry

outside of the householdkeep thechild that has acomparativeadvantage i agriculture(themale) si ceagriculture is the i dustry that thefamilyhas theresources for

(i.e., land).

Girls are valuable as a source of insurancethereforemakethe i surancemoreeffective: marry themout ofthevillage(aftertheyhavebeenanon-farmoroff-farm laborer) Valueofgirl seenbybridepriceordowry Girls areusually taken

careofby thefamilies thoughpoorest ofpooroftendopractice(female) i fanticide.

Lots of children needed in highly risky environments: Benefitscouldbe lost to sickness ordeathofchild.


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The anomaly: Fertility should be higher with higher incomes because the costs are more

easily born FALSE in almost every case

Explanation by Becker:

Couple maximize: a.) number of children; b.) child quality; c.) conventional

goods and services. Couples have constraints on their time and incomes (have a

budget contraint). Fall in fertility can be shown to fall as incomes rise by sayingthat the cost of children rise, especially because the opportunity cost of parents

time goes up. Given the cost of child quantity rises, the family opts to invest in

quality and spends more money on a decreasing number of children.

Other factors reinforce Beckerss arguments: As incomes rise, the things that

children are used for: labor on the farm; insurance; are less important

Others: claim taste and preference for children change .. maybe .. but, also may

be that these other changes influence the preferences


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Targets in times of Growth and

Development As family income rises and savings rise Capital in agriculture replaces labor

Living in cities with job or at least onespouse with a job ...

Govt pension and social security andinsurance market

***** Children are not needed (as much)

target falls


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0

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60

1953

1956

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1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

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1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

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2001

VitalRatesp

er100

Births

Deaths

Falling birth rates; leveling off

death rates population

growth rates finally fall


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As fertility falls after long time,

population growth rates finally fall Populationgrowth ratesafter long times

in Europe finallyfall to zero

Asian countrieshave fallenfaster

China falling,too 0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Germany Japan China,

1950s

China,

now

Question: how did Chinas rate fall so

far, so fast


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Structural Determinants--Urban

Urban

Better Health for Children (reduce target

fertility)

Rise is in employment (why?)

Pension plans (why?)

Womens education (why?)

Womens employment (why?)


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Structural Determinants--Rural

Rural

Better Health for Children (reduce target

fertility)

Commune systems welfare system (why?)

How about:

Education men/women (why not?)

Off farm employment or pensions (why not?)


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

VitalRatesp

er100

Births

Deaths

No precedent for fall in the

1970s and early 1980s ..

If other countries never experienced such a

rapid fall in fertility, what is the role of policy?


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One Child Policy not yet

Until mid-1970sStart and Stop:

1953: contraceptive information/services on

voluntary basis

Great Leap Forward: Mao says Chinas

people are its greatest assets, personally

rejects family planning

1962-64: pilot family planning educationprogram in urban areas

Cultural Revolution (stop again)

Interesting: fall in 1960s not policy!


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Background for One Child Policy

Early 1970s: later marriages / longer spacingbetween births / fewer children [how? Through urban work units party ideology

pressure ]

Started the fall, but no change except reduced thirdchild births (and above) i.e., still no one child policy

Mid-1970s: worried about baby boom echo in

early 1990s see population out of control intypical China-style, set out on radical,unprecedented policy road


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The policy

Most desirable family size is ONE

Array of sanctions and penalties (only a few rewards)

Close monitoring apply for birth permit

Controversy in China fluctuations in strictness

Strict times: mandatory IUDs for women with one child; sterlizationfor couples with two children; abortions for unauthorized pregancies

Less strict times: great pressure come night after night after night dont allow 2nd child into child care or pre-school will notguarantee 2nd child job

Big penalties for out-of-plan births (sometimes up to 1 years salary /

income

Great plunge in birth rates


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One does not mean One

Exceptions for minorities

In all but suburban areas, exceptions: one boy or two child

one child wait 5 years another child

one child pay for more

CONS QU NC S

Exceptions caused China to miss their goal of keeping population tounder 1.2 billion by 2000 they hit 1.2 billion in 1995,

But still progress in limiting population growth China is now set tostop growing by about 2030 at 1.6 billion .

Total fertility: 1.33


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Consequences

Gender consequences:

In normal country: 106 boys to 100 girls

China, 1930s: 120 boys to 100 girls (femaleinfanticide)

In 1960s/1970s: 108 to 100

1980s: 111 to 100

In some areas / remote rural areas: 130 to 100


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Where are the missing girls?

As in traditional China, especially in remote areas, couldbe female infanticide [some, but not main reason]

Families do not register girls [census officials do notbelieve this is so but of course they want to believe

there results probably not main reason] Selected abortions probably main reason

Ultimate consequences: bachelor problem risingpremium for bride prices may lead to illegalimmigration or even banditry


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Why are boys better?

Compare costs and benefits of boys versusgirls:

Why traditionally does family give land to boys

and marry girls out of village?[what is pattern in hunting and gathering

societies?]

What is role of girl in family livelihood strategy?

Worthless? If so, why not more femaleinfanticide?

Girls are valuable boys are more valuable


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Figure VII-2: Dependency Rates

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1982 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Total

Young

Old

total

young

elderly

This

means

that

proportion

of working

age

population

that is

between

15 and 64

will be71%

good or

bad for

growth?

What happens after 2010? Dependency ratio goes up?


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Consequences of dependency

ratios

When dependency ratios low, grow fast fastgrowth is necessary because:

As dependency growth rises, growth will slow why? Extra time and effort spent in caring forelderly elderly do not save/they dissave [this is one of reason for Japans slow down]

[how has US cushioned impact?]

[policy consequence: need to plan for social security NOW!


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Conclusions

Demography powerful force

China has tampered with population more than anynation in the history of the world not clear what theeffects have been some (certainly), but economicfactors have done most made coming demographycrisis more severe!

Policies to deal with consequences: Nothing can do about bachelor problem Start social security system

Implement health insurance in rural areas

Relax One Child Policy

GROW FAST NOW!!!

lecture 10 demography, family planning and the one child policy

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