learning, innovation, climate change and disasters: an integrated approach
TRANSCRIPT
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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development
LEARNING, INNOVATION,CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS
AN INTEGRATED APPROACH
Professor Mohan Munasinghewww.mohanmunasinghe.com
Founder Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), ColomboVice Chair, IPCC-AR4 that shared the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace
KIVA Professor of Sustainable Development, Darmstadt University, GermanyVisiting Professor, Vale Sustainable Dev. Inst., Fed. Univ. of Para, Belem, Brazil
Distinguished Guest Professor, Peking University, China
ADB ConferenceManila, 10 September 2014
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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development
Climate
System
Feedbacks
Human and
Natural Systems
(V&A Areas)
Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions
Climate Domain
Feedbacks
Different
Socio-economic
Development
Paths(SD Goals &
Policies)
Atmospheric
GHG Emission
and
ConcentrationScenarios
Climate Change Stresses
(temp., sea level, precip. etc.)
Drivers
Global Level Two-Way CC-SD Links 1Sustainable Development
Domain
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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development
Feedbacks
Human Actions Causing
GHG Emissions
Climate DomainSustainable Development
Domain
Feedbacks
Different
Socio-economic
Development
Paths(SD Goals &
Policies)
Atmospheric
GHG Emission
and
ConcentrationScenarios
Climate Change Stresses
(temp., sea level, precip. etc)
A
daptation
AdaptiveCapacity
Mitigative
Capacity
Econ. Soc. Envir.
Feedbacks
Feedbacks
Feedbacks
Global Level Two-Way CC-SD Links 2
Human and
Natural Systems
(V&A Areas)
Climate
System
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IPCC Climate Change Main Findings
Global warming in unequivocal. Total radiative forcing of the climatenow is unprecedented in several thousand years, due to rising
concentrations of GHG (CO2, CH4 & NO2).
Humans activities since the 18th century are 95% likely to have caused net
warming of Earths climate, dominating over the last 50 years. More temp.
and sea level rise is inevitable, even with existing GHG concentrations.
Long term unmitigated climate change would likely exceed the capacityto adapt, of natural managed and human systems.
Adaptation measures are available, but must be systematically developed
Mitigation technologies are also available, but better policies andmeasures (PAM) are needed to realize their potential.
Poor countries and poor groups are most vulnerable to warming,sea level rise, precipitation changes and extreme events. Most socio-
economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will suffer. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is the mosteffective solution - by integrating climate change policy intosustainable development strategy.
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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development
MOST DESIRABLE:
CC Policies that Harmonise both
Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win)
while also Making Development More
Sustainable (MDMS)Examples: renewable energy, growing
forests, energy saving,
Many trade-offs also arise and need to be
reconciled
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Numbero
fEarths
Sustainable
BAU
1.Ecol. Footprint of HumanityIn 2012 we needed 1.5 earths;and by 2030 almost 2 Earths
Unsustainable
oneearth 2012 2030
Munasinhe Institute for Development
2. Unfair World Income
Distribution 2000
Champagne GlassRichest fifth of worldpopulation receives83% of world income
One fifth of theWorlds Population
Poorest fifth of worldpopulation receives1.4% of world income
Ratio of60:1
betweenhighest &lowest 20%
3. Mil lennium Development Goals (MDG) & SDGUnited Nations Millennium Declaration, 2000 + Post-2015 Framework
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality & empowerment 4. Reduce child mortality
5. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseases 6. Improve maternal health7. Ensure environmental sustainability 8. Global partnership for development
Commendable targets for 1-2 billion poor, but where are theresources to meet them, especially with Climate Change
1.4billion
Also exist ing nuclear weapons can wipe out planet
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Climate Justice Equitable Allocation
of Per Capita Carbon Emissions
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ClimateRisk
(e.g.percap
itaGHGemissions)
Development Level (e.g. per capita income)
MDMS via Tunneling & global cooperation to
manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop Step 1
Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.
Poor
Middle Income
Rich Today
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ClimateRisk
(e.g.percap
itaGHGemissi
ons)
Development Level (e.g. per capita income)
MDMS via Tunneling & global cooperation to
manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 2
Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.
Poor
Middle Income
Rich
Incentives/resources for developing countries
1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and
most vulnerable.
Transform -
Decarbonise
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M I N D Munasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development
ClimateRisk
(e.g.percap
itaGHGemissi
ons)
Development Level (e.g. per capita income)
MDMS via Tunneling & global cooperation to
manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 3
Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.
Poor
Middle Income
Rich
Incentives/resources for developing countries
1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and
most vulnerable.
2. Technology cooperation/support to leapfrog
Leapfrog
Transform -
Decarbonise
Getting to Ewill need major
efforts in
learning and
innovation
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Food for a Week:Affluent FamilyUnsustainable musttransform/decarbonizetowards sustainablity:MillenniumConsumption Goals
Source: Menzel, 2005
Food for a Week:
Poor FamilyUnsustainable/Unethical must leapfrog/tunnel to
prosperity: MillenniumDevelopment Goals
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The consumption of the rich is crowding outthe development prospects of the poor.
As resources (like energy, water and food)become scarce, the market solution is for
prices to rise but this will simply rationthose resources in favour of the rich anddeprive the poor of even their basic needs.
Recent events in many countries show thatdeprivation leads to violence
We can enhance poverty eradication and
protect nature by complementing the MDGswith Millennium Consumption Goals that will
help make the rich consume more sustainably
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Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development:
Social
Capital
Environmental
DebtUnsustainable
cons. & prod.depleting NR
Unethical
Social ValuesGreed, Selfishness,
Corruption, Inequity,
Violence, Injustice,
Elitism
Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
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Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development:
Social
Capital
Economic
Mal-developmentgrowth based on
unsustainable debt,
waste & inequitableconsumption by
the elites
Environmental
DebtUnsustainable
cons. & prod.depleting NR
Unethical
Social ValuesGreed, Selfishness,
Corruption, Inequity,
Violence, Injustice,
Elitism
Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
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Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 3
Social
Capital
Economic
Mal-developmentgrowth based on
unsustainable debt,
waste & inequitableconsumption by
the elites
Environmental
DebtUnsustainable
cons. & prod.depleting NR
Unethical
Social ValuesGreed, Selfishness,
Corruption, Inequity,
Violence, Injustice,Elitism
Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit
Environmental
DebtUnsustainable
Pollution &
Depleting Natural
Resources
Drivers of
UnsustainableDevelopment
(with feedback)
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Global resource use versus income (Past)
(175 countries in the year 2000)
Some countries have
a high resource use
per capita butrelatively modest GDP
per capita,
while other countries
have achieved highGDP per capita while
consuming fewer
resources
Res. Use per capita
GDP per capita
Source: UNEP,Res. Eff. For Dev. (2011)
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Global resource use versus income (Past)
(175 countries in the year 2000)
Some countries have
a high resource use
per capita butrelatively modest GDP
per capita,
while other countries
have achieved highGDP per capita while
consuming fewer
resources
Res. Use per capita
GDP per capita
Source: UNEP,Res. Eff. For Dev. (2011)
Future growth trajectory
is key to sustainability