learning from the past to protect the future: creating our nation’s next earthquake & tsunami...
TRANSCRIPT
Learning from the Past to Protect the Future: Creating our Nation’s Next
Earthquake & Tsunami Survival Stories
John D. Schelling, Interim Mitigation & Recovery Section Manager
Washington State Emergency Management
253.512.7071
Twitter: @jdschelling
Where We Have Been?
The Past…
Great 1964 Alaska Earthquake & Tsunami: Effects in Washington State
March 27, 1964 @ 5:36 p.m. Magnitude 9.2
Most powerful earthquake recorded in U.S. history and second largest of all time (Chile M9.5, 1960)
Resulting tsunami peak was about 220 feet in Valdez inlet and many others locations were over 50 feet
Entire west coast and Hawaii affected from tsunami, especially California and Oregon.
The wave height in Washington was about 10-12 feet
Highway 109 bridge over Copalis River, WA
Houses torn apart at Pacific Beach, WA
Today is the 13th Anniversary of the Nisqually Earthquake
February 28, 2001 @ 10:54 a.m. Magnitude 6.8
11 miles northeast of Olympia, Washington
31.6 miles deep
Felt from British Columbia to Montana
Amazingly, there were no deaths, ~400 injuries
Estimated losses of $1 - $4 billion
Courtesy: USGS, 2001
Where Have Others Been Recently?
The Not so Distant Past…
Canterbury, New Zealand Earthquakes September 4, 2010 @ 4:35
a.m. Magnitude 7.1 25 miles west of
Christchurch near Darfield
6 miles deep
February 22, 2011 @12:51 p.m. Magnitude 6.3 3 miles southwest of
Christchurch 3 miles deep
ChristchurchChristchurch
Pre-Earthquake:Christchurch Central Business District (CBD)
During Earthquake:Christchurch Central Business District
“Downtown” Christchurch 2-Years Later
Post-Earthquake: (Recovery in Process)
Christchurch Central Business District
We have come a long way from 1964…and even 2001
The Present…
LOW Risk = NO Risk
Christchurch Teaches Us That:
USGS, 2008
Key Lessons from Christchurch: Hazard Assessment & Pre-Disaster Mitigation Really Matter…and Really Work!
Hazard Assessment is Essential: Prior to this earthquake
sequence, the Greendale Fault had not been identified.
Mitigation Works:
“For example, the mitigation measures put in place after a
vulnerability study (1994-97) cost $6 million but are estimated to have saved $60-65 million in direct asset replacement
costs as result of the earthquakes in addition to the
contribution to rapid restoration of services.”
Source: Review of the Civil Defence Emergency Management Response to the 22 February Christchurch Earthquake, 29 June 2012
Source: GNS Science, 2011
Social Science needs to be part of the process, and it needs to play an equal role.
The USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project is a GREAT start, but needs to be scaled to a national level in order to be most effective.
With the potential use of Earthquake Early Warning, we NEED a holistic approach…one that considers not only how to get a warning to people, but effectively teaches them WHAT TO DO once it arrives.
New Zealand Teaches Us Another Lesson:
Life SafetyCommunity Resilience
Informed Risk
Reduction
Social Science
Physical Science
Effective Branding of Seismic Safety:Great ShakeOut Earthquake Safety Drills
Total Registration(worldwide)
2013: 24.7 million2012: 19.5 million2011: 12.5 million2010: 8.0 million2009: 6.9 million2008 5.4 million
2013 Official ShakeOut Regions21 Regions (+5 from 2012)44 U.S. States/ Territories (+20)
Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: A Virtual Playbook for Natural Hazards Management
USGS ShakeMap FEMA Loss Estimation (HAZUS) Report
USGS Community Vulnerability Information Scenario Fact Sheet (EMD, USGS, FEMA, NOAA)
Suite of Materials (accessible at www.dnr.wa.gov):
Washington State Earthquake Scenario Catalog: Impacts Viewer for Planning, Preparedness, Mitigation, & Response
But we still have a long way to go! How do we get there from here?
(as quickly and inexpensively as possible…of course)
The Future…
What would a repeat of the 1964 Alaska Earthquake and Tsunami Look Like in the Lower 48? The Cascadia Earthquake Scenario
Magnitude 9.0 Felt region-wide Shaking intensities
greatest along coast & where local conditions amplify seismic waves Injuries: 30,000 +
Fatalities: 10,000 +
Economic losses: $81+ Billion in Oregon & Washington alone.
Image Source: U
SGS
Source: Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup (www.crew.org)
How do you get recovery underway more rapidly and get your economy moving? Don’t let infrastructure break to begin with.
Recovery Planning…in advance.
Marching boldly towards Resilience…one state at a time
Both the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and the Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA) are critical to helping states and local communities succeed in both identifying and reducing near- and long-term risk and increasing life-safety.
These two key laws provide the necessary underpinning for a coordinated and effective national strategy for to reduce our future earthquake and tsunami losses.
The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA
National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) NEHRP provides a strategic nation direction and helps marshal
sometimes disconnected entities in a common direction Without a reauthorization, agencies such as FEMA do not have a line
item in their budget for these activities. We are seeing the consequences of cash matching requirements…
consider in-kind to ensure that all states can participate in the program
Tsunami Warning & Education Act (TWEA) Funding that supports hazard assessment, warning capability, and
community-based preparedness may now be in greater jeopardy simply due to National Weather Service reorganization
The Most Effective Way to a Resilient Future is Through NEHRP and TWEA.
With every disaster comes opportunity.
Will we seize our opportunities to create a better, more resilient nation before or after our next big earthquake(s) and tsunami(s)?