learn how a new kind of marketing mix modeling is better for media planning

© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved.

Learn How a New Kind of Marke1ng Mix Modeling is Be7er for Media Planning

Mark Ba7aglia, CEO, ThinkVine

WHAT IS Agent-based Modeling?

A proven way of combining data, business rules and analyEcs to

re-‐create, gain insight into, and predict complex phenomena by simulaEng

the behavior and interacEons of “agents.”


IN MARKETING MIX…

•  The “complex phenomena” is how consumers respond to marketing, including buying (or not buying) products

•  Each “agent” represents a person or a household


ABM has two advantages over regression-based approaches:

•  Population heterogeneity: takes into account how people are different

•  Change over time: includes how people change over time including their price sensitivity, awareness, etc.


Each company’s agent-based model is different

• Each uses different data, includes different markeEng science, does different calculaEons, etc.

• The differences ma7er both in terms of the results you get and how easy it is to get them

For the rest of this deck, we’ll look at the advantages of ThinkVine’s agent-based solution for media planners

© ThinkVine. All Rights Reserved. 6

MORE ACTIONABLE Consumer-‐focused

More granular informa1on

MORE ACCURATE Includes all marke1ng Forecasts within 1-‐2%

MORE AGILE Any marketer any1me Collabora1ve workflow

ThinkVine’s ABM: Key Concepts

By applying ThinkVine’s agent-based modeling, brands have seen a 28% average increase in marketing-driven sales.

— Study of ThinkVine customers, 2013


“A Week in the Life of an Agent”: Media Consump1on

7

HH with girl aged 6-‐10 Urban area Affluent

Frequent Buyer Buys on price

”Sophia” (an “agent”)

Time


“A Week in the Life of an Agent”: Purchasing Behavior

8

Reached by Marke1ng based on, markeEng plan, reach, Eming and targeEng

62%

Experiences a Need based on seasonality

and purchase frequency

62%

Chooses Channel based on channel

preferences

62%

Sees Promo1ons & Prices based on % ACV of promoEon and relaEve

prices

86%

Makes

Purchase probability-‐based choice of a brand

or its compeEEon

✔

Star1ng Purchase Probability based on preference and effects of prior media

39% Probability of Purchase of a Brand

”Sophia” (an “agent”)

Time


Understand what budget you need and how to use it to meet sales goals and achieve other objecEves, such as leads, new customers, and lifeEme value.

Achieve your objectives

Understand the cumulative effect of all media

on consumer purchasing behavior

-‐ A7ribuEon of sales volume across all on-‐line and off-‐line media (pricing, distribuEon, etc). -‐ Short-‐term, long-‐term, marginal and normalized ROI by media type.

Quantify what works & what doesn’t

Establish the relative value of both media types and campaigns

Identify the media mix that will drive the best results overall and for each consumer group

Take factors like seasonal cost of media,

cross-media reach and frequency into account

Easily get the information you need Drill down to understand results along key dimensions

including consumer groups and timing

Accurately forecast how sales will change when media plans change

Forecast the lift of new tactics

and from moving from pilot to scale

Gain a data-driven understanding of media saturation by consumer group

Determine how long it takes to recover if you “save” by “going dark”

Do your best work with software

that supports agile planning

And there’s more…

•  Quantify the “halo effect” of media across product lines

•  Understand how competitive campaigns affect preference for your brand

•  Incorporate the persuasiveness of creative into forecasts

See a 2 minute video overview at www.thinkvine.com

or call +1 (513) 842-‐5900

Get better results from your marketing mix.

learn how a new kind of marketing mix modeling is better for media planning

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