lcv production trends in europe - is the rush over? · model cycle assumptions, transaction...

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AutomotiveAutomotive

Copyright © 2004 Global Insight, Inc.

LCV Production Trends LCV Production Trends in Europe in Europe -- Is the Rush Over?Is the Rush Over?

Philipp RosengartenSenior Market Analyst, Light Commercial Vehicles

6 October, 2004

Salon Köln, Maritim Hotel

Stuttgart

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Global Insight AutomotiveGlobal Insight Automotive


Factors Impacting Our LCV Forecast (Fact Sheet)

Macro-Data from Global Insight (real GDP growth, inflation, investment, industrial output, consumer expenditure, etc.)

Model cycle assumptions, transaction replacement demand cycles, scrapping rates by segment, parc data, etc.

Political Impacts (LCV scrapping incentives, tax changes for LCVs)

Production Limitations (ramp-ups, capacity restraints, strikes, etc.)

Recent Business and Consumer Confidence Indices

Recent SAAR-charts (Seasonally Adjusted Annual running Rate) from latest monthly sales and production data

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-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

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5

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Jan.

96

Apr

. 96

Jul.

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ct. 9

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pr. 9

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l. 97

Oct

. 97

Jan.

98

Apr

. 98

Jul.

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Oct

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Jul-0

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator (Percent Balance Positive Responses)

European Confidence Index Looks Good

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West Europe LCV Actual & Trend Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Running Rate (Thousands)

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,000

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

W. Europe LCV SAAR Chart is on High Levels

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West European Light Truck Market Drivers

Short term:(+) Confidence indices edged up during the past year(+) WE SAAR chart is setting a trend upwards again(+) Held back investments of Iraq war in 2003 aids 2004(+) East European EU accession countries fuel demand(~) Improving transaction replacement demand Medium and long term: (-) Oil price are up again threatening higher interest rates(+) New SUV-C products will aid SUV sales from 2006=> LCV sales are forecast to grow by 5% (1.83m) and

light truck sales to grow by 3% to 3.15m units in 2004

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W. European Light Truck Sales to Recover

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

CARLCV

GI-Type Light truck sales by official registration

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W. European Light Truck Production by Segment

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

SUV

MPV

PUP

MIC

HVAN

MVAN

CDV

SUV production will overtake CDV production in 2007thousands

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SUV-C and SUV-D Segment will drive future production

WE SUV Production Trends by Global Segment

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

SUV-B

SUV-C

SUV-D

SUV-E

SUV-C: Ford C214 SUV und VW Marakesh

SUV-D: Alfa GTX, Audi Q5 und MB MLK

Currently Land Rover, Honda and Volvo

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MPV-D Segment sees cannibalization from top and bottom

WE MPV Production Trends by Global Segment

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

MPV-E: MB R-Class from the US, possibly Volvo V90 and Audi Q7

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PUP-C Segment will awaken again with Nissan Frontier,Toyota Hilux addition could boost Pick-up production

WE Pick-up Production Trends by Global Segment

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

PUP-C

PUP-B

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CDV, MVAN and HVAN production dominate the field

WE VAN Production Trends by Global Segment

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

CDV

MVAN

HVAN

CDVs (VAN-C): private use push

MVANs (VAN-D): dualization trend push

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Light Truck Production to be Flat in 2004

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

CARLCV

GIGI--Type light truck production by official registrationType light truck production by official registration(in Thousands)(in Thousands)

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WE LCVs Suffers From Relocation of WE Models

(this means light truck production of WE brands)(this means light truck production of WE brands)(in Thousands)(in Thousands)

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EE Light Truck Production Jump by Model

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

PIKES PEAK

TOUAREG

CADDY III

T4/T5

FIAT SUV

DOBLO

PANDA

TRANSITCONNECTTRANSIT

(in Thousands)(in Thousands)

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(in Thousands)(in Thousands)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

EASTERN EUROPE

WESTERN EUROPE

European Light Truck Production will Grow in 2004



Appendix:Appendix:Light Trucks: Global Segment Light Trucks: Global Segment

Definitions & GuidelinesDefinitions & Guidelines

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OOLLDD SSEEGGMMEENNTT DDEEFFIINNIITTIIOONN GGLLOOBBAALL SSEEGGMMEENNTT DDEEFFIINNIITTIIOONN

AA UUTTIILLIITTYY//CCIITTYY CCLLAASSSS AA UUTTIILLIITTYY//CCIITTYY CCLLAASSSS BB SSUUPPEERRMMIINNII CCLLAASSSS BB SSUUPPEERRMMIINNII CCLLAASSSS

CC11 LLOOWWEERR MMEEDDIIUUMM CCLLAASSSS CC11 LLOOWWEERR MMEEDDIIUUMM CCLLAASSSS CC22 MMEEDDIIUUMM CCLLAASSSS CC22 MMEEDDIIUUMM CCLLAASSSS DD11 UUPPPPEERR MMEEDDIIUUMM CCLLAASSSS DD11 UUPPPPEERR MMEEDDIIUUMM CCLLAASSSS DD22 NNEEAARR LLUUXXUURRYY CCLLAASSSS DD22 EEXXEECCUUTTIIVVEE CCLLAASSSS EE11 LLUUXXUURRYY CCLLAASSSS EE11 LLUUXXUURRYY CCLLAASSSS EE22 HHIIGGHH LLUUXXUURRYY CCLLAASSSS EE22 HHIIGGHH LLUUXXUURRYY CCLLAASSSS -- -- FF11 SSUUPPEERR LLUUXXUURRYY CCLLAASSSS -- -- FF22 UULLTTRRAA LLUUXXUURRYY CCLLAASSSS -- -- MMPPVV--AA MMIICCRROO MMPPVV -- -- MMPPVV--BB SSUUBB CCOOMMPPAACCTT MMPPVV -- -- MMPPVV--CC CCOOMMPPAACCTT MMPPVV

MMPPVV MMUULLTTII PPUURRPPOOSSEE VVEEHHIICCLLEE MMPPVV--DD SSTTAANNDDAARRDD MMPPVV -- -- MMPPVV--EE LLUUXXUURRYY MMPPVV -- -- SSUUVV--AA MMIICCRROO SSUUVV -- -- SSUUVV--BB SSUUBB CCOOMMPPAACCTT SSUUVV -- -- SSUUVV--CC CCOOMMPPAACCTT SSUUVV

SSUUVV SSPPOORRTT UUTTIILLIITTYY VVEEHHIICCLLEE SSUUVV--DD SSTTAANNDDAARRDD SSUUVV -- -- SSUUVV--EE LLUUXXUURRYY SSUUVV

CCDDVV CCAARR DDEERRIIVVEEDD VVAANN CCDDVV CCAARR DDEERRIIVVEEDD VVAANN MMVVAANN MMEEDDIIUUMM VVAANN MMVVAANN MMEEDDIIUUMM VVAANN HHVVAANN HHEEAAVVYY VVAANN HHVVAANN HHEEAAVVYY VVAANN

-- -- PPUUPP--BB CCAARR DDEERRIIVVEEDD PPIICCKKUUPP PPUUPP PPIICCKK--UUPP PPUUPP--CC CCOOMMPPAACCTT PPIICCKKUUPP

-- -- PPUUPP--DD FFUULLLLSSIIZZEE PPIICCKKUUPP

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Segment MPV-D : STANDARD MPV

Recent Top Best Selling Segment MPV-D Models

Dodge CaravanHonda Odyssey

Ford Windstar / FreestarChrysler Town & Country

Chevrolet Venture

MPV-D models typically based on D Segment car platforms or Medium Vans

These are full size Multi-Purpose Vehicles typified by high aspect ratio (height:length)

Designed to carry 7-8 people and/or a high volume of luggage

We exclude all “minibus” (9-12 seats) variants of purpose-built vans

Size > 4400mm

Price Bands = D1/D2 Segment +10%CHF 36,301-55,000

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Segment MPV-E : LUXURY MPV

Recent Top Best Selling Segment MPV-E Models

Not On Sale At Present

1st entrant likely to be Mercedes-Benz GST-Class

The MPV-E Segment represents an emerging area of the market

These are luxury full size Multi-Purpose Vehicles designed to offer more prestige than existing MPV-D models

Development of MPV-E uncertain as these vehicles may be perceived as SUVs, esp. “Crossover Utility Vehicles” (CUV)

Size > 4400mm

Price Bands = E1/E2 Segment +10%CHF > 55,000

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Segment SUV-A : MINI SUV

Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-A Models

Mitsubishi Pajero MiniDaihatsu Terios Kid Mazda AZ Off Road

Honda Z

Car-Based – mostly Unibody with Car-like ride/handling/fuel economy

Usually available FWD and 4WD(some even have no 4WD option)

Mostly only sold in Japan as product of K-Car regulations

Limited number of models on sale

Size < 3800mm

Price Bands = A Segment +10%CHF < 16,500

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Segment SUV-B : SUB COMPACT SUV

Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-B Models

Suzuki JimnyDaihatsu TeriosFord Ecosport

Suzuki SJ/Samurai

Car-Based – typically Unibody

More car-like ride/handling/fuel economy

Usually available FWD and 4WD(some have no 4WD option)

Not rugged – styling can be awkward due to aspect ratio (height:length)

Limited ground clearance/offroadprowess

Size 3700-4000mm

Price Bands = B Segment +10%CHF 16,500-24,200

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Segment SUV-C : COMPACT SUV

Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-C Models

Honda CR-VToyota RAV4Ford Escape

Jeep Cherokee/LibertyNissan X-Trail

Car-Based – typically Unibody

More car-like ride/handling/fuel economy

Mostly 4WD (some have 2WD option)

Some flexibility of interior

Generally not rugged

Limited ground clearance/offroadprowess

Size 3800-4600mm

Price Bands = C1/C2 Segment +10%CHF 24,201-36,300

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Generally Body on Frame/Truck-Based

Typically 4 Wheel Drive with good ground clearance/off-road prowess

Ride/handling/fuel economy compromised as a result

Rugged styling

Seating for 5-7 occupants

Segment SUV-D : STANDARD SUV

Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-D Models

Ford ExplorerHyundai Santa Fe

Chevrolet TrailblazerKia Sorento

Toyota Highlander

Size 4500-5100mm

Price Bands = D1/D2 Segment +10%CHF 36,301-55,000

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Segment SUV-E : LUXURY/FULL-SIZE SUV

Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-E Models

Jeep Grand CherokeeFord ExpeditionChevrolet TahoeGMC SuburbanDodge Durango

Generally Body on Frame/Truck-Based

Typically 4 Wheel Drive with good ground clearance/off-road prowess


Rugged styling

Seating for 5-7 occupants

Size > 4800mm

Price Bands = E1/E2 Segment +10%CHF > 55,000

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Segment PUP-B : CAR DERIVED PICKUP

Recent Top Best Selling Segment PUP-B Models

Fiat Palio StradaDacia Camionete

Izhmash IzhVW Saviero

Opel Corsa/Chevrolet Montana

Generally Sub-Compact Pickup models derived from B Segment Car Platforms but can also be Microvan-based (Asia)More car-like ride/handling/fuel economyTypically have seating for 2 with ½ tonne payload pickup bed, GVW <2TWork horse tries to go into lifestyle direction to sell more. Popular in Brazil, which is also a key production location

Size < 4500mm

Price Bands = B Segment +10%CHF < 26,000

Note: PUP-A & PUP-E are thought unnecessary at present

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Segment PUP-C : COMPACT PICK-UP

Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-C Models

Ford RangerToyota Hilux

Chevrolet S-10Toyota Tacoma

Isuzu DMax

Size 4501-5100 mm

Price Bands = C1/C2 Segment +15%CHF 26,001-36,000


Generally purpose-built Body on Frame or Truck-Based modelsUsually quite rugged with fair ground clearance. Most 2WD with 4WD optionSingle cab or Crew cab versions with 1-tonne payload pickup bedMostly utilitarian/commercial usage but some crossover into CAR sector in some markets (esp. USA & Thailand)Thailand is global hub for production

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Segment PUP-D : FULL-SIZE PICKUP

Recent Top Best Selling Segment PUP-D Models

Chevrolet SilveradoFord F-SeriesDodge Ram

Ford Super-DutyGMC Sierra

Generally purpose-built Body on Frame/Truck-Based models

Rugged single cab or crew cab versions with large pickup bed

Typically 4WD with good ground clearance/off-road prowess


Size > 5000mm (big!)

Price Bands = D1/D2 Segment +10%CHF >36,301


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Segment CDV : CAR DERIVED VAN

Recent Top Best Selling Segment CDV Models

Renault Kangoo Citroen BerlingoPeugeot Partner

VW Caddy IIIFord Transit Connect

Small Van models derived from B Segment Car PlatformsCar-like ride/handling/fuel economyTypically have seating for 2 with ½tonne payload, GVW < 2TWere once all “proper” LCVs but some OEMs market CDVs as lifestyle-enhancing CAR models, now often registered as CARs in official stats.

Size < 4,500mm

Price Band = CHF < 25,000

Note: We include “Combispace”versions of LCVs as CDVs even if registered as CARs

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Segment MVAN: MEDIUM VANS

Recent Top Best Selling Segment MVAN Models

VW T5 (Transporter)Ford Transit

Renault TraficFiat Ducato

MB Vito and Sprinter

Medium van models on designated light commercial vehicle platformsTruck ride/handling/fuel economyTypically have seating for 2-9 with 1-1.5 tonne payload, GVW 2-3.5TMVANs split in to panel vans (cargo vans), chassis cab (pick-ups), passenger vans and mini buses.

Size = 4,700 – 5,100mm

Price Band = CHF 30,000 - 60,000

Note: Some MVANS are also privately used and then officially registered as CAR under OFF-TYPE

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Segment HVAN: HEAVY VANS

Recent Top Best Selling Segment HVAN Models

Mercedes-Benz SprinterRenault Mascot

IVECO DailyVolkswagen LTNissan Eco-T

Heavy van models on designated light commercial vehicle platformsTruck ride/handling/fuel economyTypically have seating for 2-9 with 1-2.5 t payload, GVW 3.5-6T HVANs split in to panel vans (cargo vans), chassis cab (pick-ups), passenger vans and mini buses.

Size = 4,800 – 5,600mm

Price Band = CHF 40,000 - 60,000

Note: GVW 6-7.5T is currently covered by the Heavy Truck Report

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Segment MIC : Microvans

Recent Top Best Selling Segment MIC Models

Piago PorterDaihatsu Extol (was Hijet)

Aixam Mega Van

Small Van models dominant in Asia with a less than 600 cc, but 1200 cc in Western EuropeCar-like ride/handling/fuel economyTypically have seating for 2 with ½tonne payload, GVW < 2TIn WE only as full LCVs in official stats, as no private use at all

Size = 3,300 mm

Price Band = CHF 20,000

Note: sales mainly in Italy and UK

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Registration Explanation

Official Vehicle Type:OFF-TYPE: How a vehicle is officially registered as:- CAR = officially registered as a passenger car- LCV = officially registered as a light commercial vehicle- HCV = officially registered as a heavy truck > 6TGlobal Insight Type:GI-TYPE (Ex DRI-TYPE): How a vehicle looks like:- CAR = sedan, hatch, estate, MPV-A, MPV-B, MPV-C- LCV = SUV, MPV, CDV, MVAN, HVAN, Pick-up, MICCARs = Passenger CarsLCVs = Official Vehicle Type: light commercial vehicles

or Global Insight Type: light trucksLight Trucks = GI-Type LCVsLight Vehicles = CARs and LCVs combined

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Thank you!

Philipp RosengartenSenior Market Analyst, Light Commercial

Vehicles

[email protected]: +49 69 2097 3319

lcv production trends in europe - is the rush over? · model cycle assumptions, transaction...

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