Labor Force Implications of Regional Population Decline in Kansas

February 2007

Prepared by Center for Economic Development and Business Research

W. Frank Barton School of Business Wichita State University

Janet Harrah, Director Debra Franklin, Regional Labor Force Analyst

Anne Gallagher, Senior Research Associate Mary Jane Townsend, Research Associate

Wichita State University, Campus Box #121, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0121 Telephone: (316) 978-3225 Fax: (316) 978-3950 www.wichita.edu/cedbr

Labor Force Implications of Regional Population Decline in Kansas The population of Kansas continues to grow, but at a rate below the population growth rate for the United States. Over the past ten years, the United States has experienced nearly a 1.1 percent rate of growth, while the population of Kansas has grown at a 0.5 percent annual rate.1 Population growth has been unevenly distributed in Kansas, and many Kansas counties have experienced declining populations. Curiously, many counties with declining populations have also experienced an increase in their labor force and in the number of residents who work full-time. The explanation for this seeming anomaly is found in the four components of population change: births, deaths, in-migration, and out-migration. This paper investigates the peculiar demographic dynamic of declining population and increasing labor force using the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) classification of statistical areas. The OMB establishes and maintains definitions of Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas which are intended to provide nationally consistent definitions for collecting, tabulating and publishing statistics for geographic areas. Counties not included in the OMB’s Metropolitan Areas or Micropolitan Areas are identified as rural counties.2 Metropolitan Statistical Areas have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties. Micropolitan Statistical Areas – a new set of statistical areas – have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 people, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties. Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas are defined in terms of whole counties (or equivalent entities). Table 1. Kansas Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas

Metropolitan Statistical Areas Micropolitan Statistical Areas Kansas City, MO-KS Topeka, KS Atchison, KS Liberal, KS Franklin County Jackson County Atchison County Seward County Johnson County Jefferson County Coffeyville, KS Manhattan, KS Leavenworth County Osage County Montgomery County Greary County Linn County Shawnee County Dodge City, KS Pottawatomie County Miami County Wabaunsee County Ford County Riley County Wyandotte County Wichita, KS Emporia, KS McPherson, KS Lawrence, KS Butler County Chase County McPherson County Douglas County Harvey County Lyon County Parsons, KS St. Josephs, MO-KS Sedgwick County Garden City, KS Labette County Doniphan County Sumner County Finney County Pittsburg, KS Great Bend, KS Crawford County Barton County Salina, KS Hays, KS Ottawa County Ellis County Saline County Hutchinson, KS Winfield, KS Reno County Cowley County

1 U. S. Census Bureau. 2 OMB Bulletin No. 07.01. http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bulletins/fy2007/b07-01.pdf. The Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Standards do not equate to an urban-rural classification; many counties included in Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and many other counties, contain both urban and rural territory and populations.

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Recent Census Bureau Statistics The most recent release of population estimates from the Census Bureau indicates that 83 Kansas counties lost population between 2000 and 2005. These included 55 of the 57 counties that recorded population losses between 1990 and 2000, joined by 28 counties that had grown through the 1990s.

Figure 1. Kansas Percent Change in Population 1990-2000

Kansas Percent Change in Population 2000-2005

-17 to -10% change in population 11-20% change in population -9 to -1% change in population 21-30% change in population 0% change in population Metropolitan Counties 1-10% change in population Micropolitan Counties

0% change in population category includes counties with population variances between -0.4 percent and 0.4 percent.

Data are from the 1990 and 2000 Censuses of Population (corrected), and the 2005 population estimate file from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Metropolitan Counties During the 1990s, one of the 17 metropolitan counties in Kansas experienced declining population, 15 counties increased in population, and one county had a relatively stable population. From 2000 to 2005, two additional metropolitan counties are estimated to have lost population. Micropolitan Counties Micropolitan counties demonstrate a similar pattern. During the 1990s, six of the 19 micropolitan counties in Kansas experienced declining population, 11 counties increased in population and two counties had a relatively stable population. From 2000 to 2005, four micropolitan counties continued to lose population and they were joined by five additional counties. Two of the counties that lost population during the 1990s had a relatively stable population from 2000 through 2005 along with Atchison County, which has had a relatively stable population throughout the study period. Chase County’s population remained relatively constant during the 1990s, and the county has experienced modest population gains between 2000 and 2005. Chase County joins four other micropolitan counties that have recently gained population.

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Rural Counties Rural counties are also experiencing depopulation. During the 1990s, 42 of the 69 rural counties in Kansas experienced declining population, ten counties had relatively stable populations and 17 counties experienced population gains. From 2000 to 2005, two rural counties had estimated population gains, two counties had stable population estimates and the remaining rural counties are estimated to have population loss. Hodgeman County is the only rural county that lost population in the 1990s and had estimated population gains between 2000 and 2005. These numbers clearly indicate a continuing concentration of Kansans in metropolitan centers and their suburbs. It is estimated that 63 percent of Kansans live in metropolitan counties, 22 percent live in micropolitan counties and 15 percent live in rural counties. Labor Force Census results indicate that 29 of the 57 counties that lost population between 1990 and 2000 actually saw increases in the size of their labor force. Of those 29 counties, all saw an increase in their labor force participation rate and 16 counties3 experienced an increase in the proportion of the labor force with full-time work.4

3 Allen, Atchison, Brown, Ellsworth, Greenwood, Labette, Lincoln, Logan, Marshall, Mitchell, Neosho, Pratt, Sheridan, Sherman, Wallace, and Woodson Counties. 4 U.S. Census Bureau, P47. Sex by Worker Status in 1999 by usual Hours Worked Per Week in 1999 by Weeks Worked in 1999 for the Population 16 Years and Over [49] - Universe: Population 16 years and over.

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Disaggregating Population Change The explanation for this seeming anomaly (population loss and labor force growth) is found in the four components of population change: births, deaths, in-migration, and out-migration. If a population grows, it is because more people are born than die and/or because more people are moving into an area than are moving out. If a population declines, the opposite must be true. In general, non-metropolitan Kansas is losing population due to declining birth rates and high death rates resulting from a disproportionately large population of elderly residents. While 37 percent of the state’s population resides in a non-metropolitan county, 47 percent of the population over 65 years of age does so and 53 percent of people over the age of 85 live in non-metropolitan counties. Fifty-six counties experienced a greater number of deaths than births over this period. Migration consists of the movements of people into or out of a county. Fifty-five counties experienced net out-migration between 1990 and 2000.

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Ultimately, one would expect the two trends to be mutually reinforcing. This is indeed the case in 35 counties which have had negative net migration and deaths exceeding births between 1990 and 2000. Table 2. Population Summary 1990 - 2000 Births Exceed

Deaths Net In-Migration

Yes No Yes No

Births Exceed Deaths & Net In-Migration (Growth)

Deaths Exceed Births & Net Out-Migration (Decline)

Metropolitan Counties (17) 16 1 15 2 14 0

Micropolitan Counties (19) 14 5 10 9 8 3

Rural Counties (69) 50 19 25 44 7 32

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Census estimates for 2005 indicate that more counties are experiencing declining populations due to either out-migration, deaths exceeding births or both population dynamics since the year 2000. Table 3. Population Summary 2000 - 2005 Births Exceed

Deaths Net In-Migration

Yes No Yes No

Births Exceed Deaths & Net In-Migration (Growth)

Deaths Exceed Births & Net Out-Migration (Decline)

Metropolitan Counties (17) 15 2 11 6 10 1

Micropolitan Counties (19) 15 4 3 16 3 3

Rural Counties (69) 19 50 6 63 1 45

Comparing Rural and Metropolitan County Age Distribution The results of these demographic changes are apparent when comparing the population pyramids for metropolitan and rural Kansas. The rural counties demonstrate a deep indention in the population pyramid for 18 to 34 years-of-age. It is not uncommon for 18- to 24-year-old rural youth to attend post secondary training in urban areas. However, the 25- through 34-years of age population indicates that few of these students are returning to their rural homes.

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Figure 4. Metropolitan Counties Kansas 2000

-10 -5 0 5 10

Percent

Male Female

Rural Counties Kansas 2000

-10 -5 0 5 10Percent

Male Female

In-Migration of Working Age People Figure 2 identifies 16 Kansas counties with declining population, increasing labor force, increasing labor force participation rate and increasing number of people working full-time.5 In-migration of working age people is a likely dynamic causing this phenomenon. Evidence of the in-migration of working age people can be found by examining Census data and identifying the differences between the expected and observed population in various age groups in the year 2000. This analysis begins with the assumption that nobody either moved or died over the ten year period between the last two Censuses. If that were true, one would expect the population age 30 to 34 in the 2000 census would be identical to the population age 20 to 24 in the 1990 census. Any observed change must be the result of either migration or death.

Age 85 + Age 75 to 84 Age 65 to 74 Age 60 to 64 Age 55 to 59 Age 50 to 54 Age 45 to 49 Age 35 to 44 Age 25 to 34 Age 21 to 24 Age 18 to 20 Age 15 to 17 Age 10 to 14 Age 5 to 9

Age 0 to 4

5 Allen, Atchison, Brown, Ellsworth, Greenwood, Labette, Lincoln, Logan, Marshall, Mitchell, Neosho, Pratt, Sheridan, Sherman, Wallace, and Woodson Counties.

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Figure 5. Kansas Counties with Decreasing Population, Increasing Labor Force and Increasing Full-Time Employment

(16 KS Counties)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 50 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+

Age in 2000

Popu

latio

n

1990 Census aged 10 years (expected) 2000 Census (actual) The table above demonstrates significant out-migration of young people between the ages of 20 through 29 years of age. The data surprisingly demonstrates in-migration for the population age 30 through 49 years of age during the decade of the 1990s. Associated with that movement was an in-migration of school aged children who accompanied working age parents. For these 16 counties, the net result of these demographic changes was a 2.7 percent decline in total population and a 4.6 percent increase in the economically important group age 30 to 54 years. Coupled with an increase in the labor force participation, this resulted in labor force growth of 3.7 percent. Can We Expect More of the Same? While labor force growth in these counties in the 1990s is encouraging, one cannot be overly optimistic. Because institutions of higher education are predominantly located in larger communities, young people can be expected to continue leaving rural areas in large numbers upon completion of high school. Because the senior and near senior population is relatively large, one can expect to see substantial rural population losses resulting from death rates exceeding birth rates. Therefore, depopulation is likely to be a continuing theme in many non-metropolitan counties. Whether or not there can be a continuation of in-migration by persons of working age is a question of critical economic importance. It is difficult to forecast migration, but early

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estimates from the Census Bureau indicate declining migration in most Kansas counties.6 The movement seen during the 1990s may reflect lifestyle preferences as much as economic opportunity, but it is certain that such a movement of population to rural areas cannot develop in the absence of available employment.

Table 4. Cumulative Components of Population Change for Kansas, by County April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005

County Births Deaths

Natural Increase (Births - Deaths)

Net Migration (International + Internal)

Net InternationalMigration

Net Internal Migration

Allen 930 1,004 -74 32 -536 -504 Anderson 531 543 -12 7 91 98 Atchison 1,132 939 193 17 -159 -142 Barber 207 335 -128 2 -213 -211 Barton 1,842 1,619 223 405 -1,321 -916 Bourbon 1,095 1,022 73 18 -456 -438 Brown 711 713 -2 44 -514 -470 Butler 3,779 2,806 973 224 1,747 1,971 Chase 247 215 32 18 6 24 Chautauqua 189 376 -187 4 -58 -54 Cherokee 1,428 1,348 80 23 -1,118 -1,095 Cheyenne 131 209 -78 40 -177 -137 Clark 117 135 -18 20 -104 -84 Clay 455 504 -49 2 -138 -136 Cloud 575 848 -273 45 -270 -225 Coffey 559 577 -18 13 -161 -148 Comanche 84 175 -91 -3 69 66 Cowley 2,468 2,256 212 314 -1,466 -1,152 Crawford 2,729 2,437 292 540 -778 -238 Decatur 156 271 -115 22 -180 -158 Dickinson 1,104 1,256 -152 61 -26 35 Doniphan 427 462 -35 4 -382 -378 Douglas 6,271 2,830 3,441 2,154 -2,507 -353 Edwards 220 229 -9 69 -212 -143 Elk 142 288 -146 1 -33 -32 Ellis 1,817 1,306 511 196 -1,407 -1,211 Ellsworth 237 430 -193 - 24 24 Finney 4,142 1,101 3,041 2,285 -6,825 -4,540 Ford 3,514 1,403 2,111 2,294 -3,079 -785 Franklin 1,836 1,228 608 105 445 550 Geary 3,140 1,031 2,109 300 -5,738 -5,438 Gove 172 229 -57 -3 -239 -242 Graham 115 193 -78 -3 -138 -141 Grant 750 292 458 226 -1,050 -824 Gray 484 305 179 207 -420 -213 Greeley 69 95 -26 35 -189 -154 Greenwood 424 675 -251 19 -91 -72 Hamilton 221 142 79 135 -275 -140 Harper 349 539 -190 2 -253 -251 Harvey 2,253 1,849 404 340 281 621 Haskell 366 160 206 153 -424 -271

6 U. S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by County, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005. http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2005-04.html.

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Table 4. Cumulative Components of Population Change for Kansas, by County April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005

County Births Deaths

Natural Increase (Births - Deaths)

Net Migration (International + Internal)

Net InternationalMigration

Net Internal Migration

Hodgeman 130 111 19 1 11 12 Jackson 928 664 264 9 632 641 Jefferson 1,138 796 342 29 331 360 Jewell 116 297 -181 2 -252 -250 Johnson 37,664 14,779 22,885 7,096 25,864 32,960 Kearny 361 208 153 126 -281 -155 Kingman 447 578 -131 - -364 -364 Kiowa 199 190 9 11 -308 -297 Labette 1,388 1,583 -195 16 -461 -445 Lane 103 171 -68 -3 -184 -187 Leavenworth 4,918 2,780 2,138 331 2,055 2,386 Lincoln 186 328 -142 -3 -15 -18 Linn 569 549 20 -2 350 348 Logan 173 192 -19 -3 -222 -225 Lyon 2,809 1,471 1,338 1,016 -2,630 -1,614 McPherson 1,808 1,790 18 26 -29 -3 Marion 688 900 -212 8 -184 -176 Marshall 583 779 -196 20 -371 -351 Meade 349 265 84 98 -180 -82 Miami 2,107 1,340 767 39 1,387 1,426 Mitchell 321 487 -166 2 -340 -338 Montgomery 2,365 2,462 -97 125 -1,678 -1,553 Morris 309 423 -114 25 44 69 Morton 261 153 108 114 -514 -400 Nemaha 680 758 -78 2 -186 -184 Neosho 1,102 1,099 3 18 -465 -447 Ness 168 257 -89 2 -351 -349 Norton 266 356 -90 2 -185 -183 Osage 946 952 -6 23 441 464 Osborne 189 390 -201 -3 -192 -195 Ottawa 359 434 -75 7 35 42 Pawnee 334 472 -138 8 -351 -343 Phillips 332 494 -162 - -322 -322 Pottawatomie 1,450 869 581 11 357 368 Pratt 578 586 -8 30 -156 -126 Rawlins 102 210 -108 -3 -179 -182 Reno 4,330 3,523 807 275 -2,247 -1,972 Republic 244 521 -277 -3 -381 -384 Rice 646 680 -34 116 -378 -262 Riley 4,784 1,591 3,193 1,498 -6,808 -5,310 Rooks 307 371 -64 -3 -256 -259 Rush 196 275 -79 -3 -57 -60 Russell 379 530 -151 -3 -359 -362 Saline 3,893 2,595 1,298 525 -1,439 -914 Scott 339 272 67 16 -578 -562 Sedgwick 39,484 19,801 19,683 7,468 -13,474 -6,006 Seward 2,727 747 1,980 1,892 -3,071 -1,179 Shawnee 12,947 9,104 3,843 1,185 -2,330 -1,145 Sheridan 142 183 -41 -3 -176 -179 Sherman 401 355 46 13 -660 -647

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Table 4. Cumulative Components of Population Change for Kansas, by County April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005

County Births Deaths

Natural Increase (Births - Deaths)

Net Migration (International + Internal)

Net InternationalMigration

Net Internal Migration

Smith 177 377 -200 -1 -208 -209 Stafford 243 310 -67 40 -262 -222 Stanton 202 105 97 81 -331 -250 Stevens 444 262 182 168 -391 -223 Sumner 1,643 1,417 226 18 -1,344 -1,326 Thomas 499 361 138 1 -665 -664 Trego 167 221 -54 - -203 -203 Wabaunsee 387 341 46 4 5 9 Wallace 107 123 -16 9 -166 -157 Washington 309 506 -197 20 -282 -262 Wichita 171 122 49 20 -281 -261 Wilson 579 752 -173 5 -315 -310 Woodson 188 314 -126 -2 -81 -83 Wyandotte 14,884 8,218 6,666 5,339 -13,858 -8,519 Kansas 204,663 128,525 76,138 38,222 -57,763 -19,541 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2005-04.html.

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Table 5. Percent of Population Change for Kansas Counties, 1990 - 2000 and 2000 - 2005

% change in pop 1990-2000

% change in pop 2000-2005 Kansas Counties

% change in pop 1990-2000

% change in pop 2000-2005

% change in pop 1990-2000

% change in pop 2000-2005 Kansas Counties Kansas Counties

Allen County -1.73 -4.16 Greeley County -13.53 -12.06 Osborne County -8.53 -9.03 Anderson County 3.93 0.89 Greenwood County -2.22 -4.37 Ottawa County 9.39 -0.65 Atchison County -0.93 0.18 Hamilton County 11.81 -2.47 Pawnee County -4.26 -6.83 Barber County -9.65 -6.58 Harper County -8.25 -6.96 Phillips County -8.94 -8.28 Barton County -4.01 -0.35 Harvey County 5.93 2.96 Pottawatomie County 12.90 5.05 Bourbon County 2.76 -2.48 Haskell County 10.83 -1.74 Pratt County -0.57 -1.57 Brown County -3.63 -4.52 Hodgeman County -4.23 1.25 Rawlins County -12.87 -9.91 Butler County 17.60 4.82 Jackson County 9.82 6.94 Reno County 3.85 -1.90 Chase County 0.30 1.68 Jefferson County 15.85 3.69 Republic County -9.98 -11.50 Chautauqua County -1.09 -5.74 Jewell County -10.82 -11.58 Rice County 1.42 -2.87 Cherokee County 5.76 -4.64 Johnson County 27.06 12.20 Riley County -6.40 -0.04 Cheyenne County -2.41 -6.92 Kearny County 12.52 -0.33 Rooks County -5.86 -5.88 Clark County -1.16 -4.48 Kingman County 4.59 -5.86 Rush County -7.57 -4.08 Clay County -3.67 -2.19 Kiowa County -10.44 -8.97 Russell County -5.93 -7.12 Cloud County -6.85 -4.96 Labette County -3.62 -2.90 Saline County 8.71 0.60 Coffey County 5.49 -2.05 Lane County -9.26 -12.11 Scott County -3.20 -10.16 Comanche County -14.96 -1.63 Leavenworth County 6.71 6.44 Sedgwick County 12.19 2.91 Cowley County -1.69 -2.74 Lincoln County -2.05 -4.67 Seward County 20.10 3.39 Crawford County 7.48 -0.06 Linn County 15.94 3.59 Shawnee County 5.53 1.47 Decatur County -13.65 -8.09 Logan County -1.14 -8.27 Sheridan County -7.56 -7.89 Dickinson County 2.04 -0.70 Lyon County 3.46 -0.91 Sherman County -2.40 -8.98 Doniphan County 1.41 -5.25 McPherson County 8.38 -0.10 Smith County -10.67 -9.15 Douglas County 22.21 2.95 Marion County 3.67 -3.06 Stafford County -10.74 -6.29 Edwards County -8.93 -4.55 Marshall County -6.32 -5.11 Stanton County 3.13 -6.69 Elk County -1.98 -5.70 Meade County 9.04 -0.13 Stevens County 8.22 -0.93 Ellis County 5.78 -2.69 Miami County 20.82 7.57 Sumner County 0.41 -4.43 Ellsworth County -0.93 -2.79 Mitchell County -3.76 -7.39 Thomas County -0.94 -6.61 Finney County 22.54 -3.79 Montgomery County -6.61 -4.65 Trego County -10.15 -8.10 Ford County 18.19 3.98 Morris County -1.52 -0.90 Wabaunsee County 4.27 0.49 Franklin County 12.69 5.90 Morton County 0.46 -8.58 Wallace County -3.95 -10.06 Geary County -8.23 -12.03 Nemaha County 2.59 -2.56 Washington County -8.34 -7.31 Gove County -5.04 -9.94 Neosho County -0.22 -2.75 Wichita County -8.23 -8.77 Graham County -16.85 -7.64 Ness County -14.36 -12.88 Wilson County 0.42 -4.82 Grant County 10.48 -4.79 Norton County 0.10 -4.85 Woodson County -7.97 -5.70 Gray County 9.41 -0.73 Osage County 9.60 2.60 Wyandotte County -2.56 -1.35 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Figure 6. Kansas Counties

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