la gestion visuelle kanban - daniel doiron

[email protected] @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.

Lean Kanban Risk ManagementAgile Montréal – 11 Janvier 2017

Daniel Doiron, AKT

mailto:[email protected]


LEAN KANBAN RISK MANAGEMENT : OPTIONS, LIQUIDITY & TRUST, HEDGING,

PRIORITIZING, SCHEDULING



Risk and Real Life Options



A Fantastic Book !



KANBAN CADENCES



WHAT IS RISK ?



Kanban Mechanics



H

FF OM

NK

J

I

Pull

Kanban systems are pull systems

Ideas

D

E

A

I

DevReady

G

5Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

F

B

CPull

Pull

*

There is capacity here

UATReleaseReady

∞ ∞

Pulling work from development will create

capacity here too –the pull signals move

upstream!Now we have capacity to replenish our ready

buffer



WHO IS DOING WHAT ?Test

Ready

FH E

C A

I

GD

GYPB

DEMN

P1

AB

IdeasDev

Ready5

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 35

UATReleaseReady

∞ ∞



Where is the RISK ?



KEY RISK - LEAN MANAGEMENT



LEAN KANBAN RISK MANAGEMENT TRIAGE

NOW

NEVER

LATER

What should we do now, later or never !

Failing to apply this decision matrix treats all demand as irrefutable: demand that will not be shaped !



LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – AVERSION

“Being risk averse is a bad thing in a modern business -- saying yes to everything and starting everything early is a sign of risk aversion …. ”

David Anderson 20:20 – 20:53

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEpT0NPpBcI


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEpT0NPpBcI


LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – AVERSION

• Those who say ‘yes’ to everything are risk averse and treat all demand as irrefutable demand and let it enter the system

• They want everything to be finished asap and therefore they start everything as early as possible !

• WIP is therefore going thru the roof, variability sets in and results are random. Trust is eroded !

• As long as a demand has not entered the Kanban system, it is refutable demand and commitment is deferred !

• This is the robust and resilient way to manage WIP and prevent variability from entering the system. Allocate demand according to current capacity !



OPTIONS, LIQUIDITY & TRUST , HEDGING, PRIORITIZING,

SCHEDULING



LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT

Is your risk management approach:

a) Bringing people together ?

b) Triggering open discussions (narrative) ?

c) Cheap ?

d) Visual ?

e) Supporting many taxonomies ?

f) Qualitative ?



LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT 1. Blocker Analysis

2. Cost of Delay

3. Liquidity and real option theory

4. Taxonomies and radar graphs

5. When is discussion needed ?



Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur



Blocker Analysis - Clustering



Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur




2. Cost of Delay






Where do you need to be more predictable ?



Qualitative Cost of Delay function sketches

Expedite – white; critical and immediate cost of delay; can exceed other kanban limit (bumps other work); limit 1

Fixed date – orange; cost of delay goes up significantly after deadline

Standard - yellow; increasing urgency, cost of delay is shallow but accelerates before leveling out

Intangible – blue; cost of delay may be significant but is not incurred until significantly later, if at all

time

impa

ct

time

impa

ct

time

impa

ct

time

impa

ct

Class of service and its policiesColor Function

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBPa0FE4hRs



COST OF DELAY TAXONOMY



COST OF DELAY TAXONOMY

Cost of Delay is for for big stuff !

• Majority of people understand it within minutes

• Excellent for portfolio and project selection or features

• Not so good for individual ticket selection on day to day basis



?

WHAT DO WE DO FOR SMALL ITEMS ?




2. Cost of Delay






Real Life Options: Now, later or not at all

Real Life Options(Maassen, Matts)

• Options have value• Options have expiry

conditions• Do not commit early

unless you know why



TRUST & LIQUIDITY OF SYSTEMS




• Liquidity tells us if our assumptions about our statistical models based on the near past are still right and have not moved outside the range of volatility ! (Lucas’ law)

• Little’s Law & Variability & Throughput & WIP etc.

• Liquidity is a general system health indicator metric of a pull system. Like blood pressure it is easy to observe and hard to fake

• Olaav Massen and Chris Matts contribution to Lean Kanban Risk Management has taken paths into scheduling, hedging, liquidity & trust, discovery Kanban and much more



General Health - Easy to Measure – Hard to Fake



Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are commonly reported. *, **

> 40% is good!



LIQUIDITY ISSUE – NO TAKERS FOR A TICKET



Real Life Options: Who gets assigned a ticket ?

• Lean Kanban – Good enough to do the job first. Never assign the most flexible competent resources at first! Use those as coaches, reviewers, improvement thinkers… and only very occasionally “firefighters”. Keep options open !

• TOC – Same thinking

• Cynefin – Same thinking



USE AVATARS FOR MANAGING LIQUIDITY & RISK



LOW WIP ? NOT ALWAYS !



LEAN DECISION FILTER 45

Lean decision filter :

Value trumps flow Expedite at the expense of flow to maximize value

Flow trumps waste elimination Increase WIP to maintain flow even if this causes waste

Waste elimination trumps economies of scale Never pursue economies of scale, balance demand with throughput 45



CHARACTERISTIC OF A LIQUID FINANCIAL MARKET

Tightness : Bid-Ask spread

Immediacy : How quick an order is filled Breadth : Ability to handle large orders

Depth : Processing orders at different prices

Resiliency : Ability of the market to swing back to normal or adjust after a surge of orders off the market or one large order that moves the price



CHARACTERISTIC OF A LIQUID KANBAN

Tightness : Variance between customer expectations and probability of meeting it within current lead time capability (Due date performance)

Immediacy : Flow efficiency or waiting time until pull (Time spent blocked or in done column)

Breadth : Variety of types of work handled (Classes of service)

Depth : Variety of risks under management and depth of taxonomies

Resiliency : Ability of the market to recover to normal or adjust after a surge in orders breaking wip constraints or swarming on expedite lane



CHARACTERISTIC OF A GOOD KANBAN METRIC

A good Pull liquidity metric measures the transaction volume per unit of time.

A usefull Lean metric is:

• Simple • Self generating• Relevant• Leading indicator



LIQUIDITY = THOUGHPUT MEASUREMENT !



TIGHTNESS – DUE DATE PERFORMANCE



IMMEDIACY – FLOW EFFICIENCY Test

Ready

FH E

C A

I

GD

GYPB

DEMN

P1

AB

Customer Lead TimeWaiting Waiting WaitingWorking

IdeasDev

Ready5

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 35

UATReleaseReady

∞ ∞

WaitingWorking Working



BREADTH – CLASSES OF SERVICE & SLA



RESILIENCY - DEFERRED COMMITMENT




2. Cost of Delay






SCHEDULING RISK TAXONOMY



PRODUCT LIFECYCLE RISK



DEPTH – RISK TAXONOMIES



INVESTING IN SAME RISK PROFILE IS BAD !




2. Cost of Delay






RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS

No talk needed !Let’s talk !



Demand Shaping ThresholdDimension 1

Dimension 2

Dimension 3

Dimension 5

Dimension 4

DefinitelyDo

This

Demand shapingthreshold

Talk aboutthis one

DefinitelyDon’tThis

Each risk dimension represents a taxonomy of categories describing

a known risk.

Policy describes the category in each dimension at or

above which we wish to accept demand



BAZARVOICE BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS



RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS



RISK TAXONOMIES – SHAPING DEMAND



RISK TAXONOMIES & CONVERSATIONS



BACKUP SLIDES



LINKS TO CONTENT OF THIS PRESENTATION


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00Ha_oA_Jeo



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00Ha_oA_Jeo


LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – MORE LEAN STUFF


la gestion visuelle kanban - daniel doiron

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