l12a project simulation

8/8/2019 L12A Project Simulation

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DECISION RULE (b)

100 sl ips of paper marked 00 - 99

Activity bProbab ility 0 .70 0 .30

Sl ips marked 00 - 69 70 - 99durat ion 7 9


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DECISION RULE - ( c)

100 sl ips of paper marked 00 - 99

Activity cProbab ility 0 .20 0 .6 0 0 .20Sl ips marked 00 - 19 20 - 79 80 - 99

durat ion 2 4 6


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SAMPLE PROJECTJ ob des c ription prede c essors time

A Order m/ c -- 4, 5, 6 (0 .3,0 .5,0 .2)

B Prepare s ite -- 4C Re ce ive m/ c A 2, 4, 6

(0 .2,0 .6 ,0 .2)

D Ele c tr ical conn e c tions A 2E Install m/ c B, C 7, 9

(0 .7,0 .3)


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PROJECT NET WORK

1 34

2

A C D

B E


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RAN DOM NUMBER TABLE

03 68 93 30 90 43 4 6 59 67 89 5 6 68 83 We w ill use these ra ndom numbers to

ge nerate the t imes for the proje c ta c tivities . Ac tivity A C E

Ra ndom No . 03 68 93 Durat ion 4 4 9(Us ing the probab ility d istr ibut ion data)


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PROJECT NET WORK

(1st Real izat ion)

1 34

2

A 4 C D

B E

4

94

2


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COMPILING SIMULATION

RESULTSS .No . A B C D E cr path1 4 * 4 4 * 2 9 * 17


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RAN DOM NUMBER TABLE II



Ra ndom No . 30 90 43 Durat ion 5 6 7

(Us ing the probab ility d istr ibut ion data)


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PROJECT NET WORK

(2nd Real izat ion)

1 34

2

A 5 6 C 2 D

B E

47


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2 5 * 4 6* 2 7* 1 8


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RAN DOM NUMBER TABLE



Ra ndom No . 46 59 67 Durat ion 5 4 7(Us ing the probab ility d istr ibut ion data)


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PROJECT NET WORK

(3rd Real izat ion)

1 3 4

2

A C D

B E


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2 5 * 4 6* 2 7* 1 83 5* 4 4* 2 7* 1 6


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PROJECT DISTRIBUTION,

MEAN & VARIANCE


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CRITICALITY IN DICES

Cr itical ity index of a n a c tivity =Probab ility that the a c tivity be comes

cr itical =Number of t imes the a c tivity was cr itical/Number of s imulat ion runs

[Th is is a conce pt t hat was totall y missing in conventional PER T]


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SUMMARY - I

Proje c t s imulat ion as a powerful tool toha ndle u nc erta in a c tivity durat ions .

Bas ic methodolo gy of s imulat ion involvesrepl icat ing the behav iour of the network bysampl ing a c tivity t imes us ing Mon te Carlos imulat ion.Mon te Carlo s imulat ion to ge nerate

d is crete a nd con tinuous d istr ibut ions .


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SUMMARY - II

A small ma ch ine installat ion proje c t take n up to illustrate the bas ic approa ch of proje c t s imulat ion.Comp ilat ions at the e nd of s imulat ion usedto obta in parameters l ike Proje c t expe c ted durat ion Var ia nc e of proje c t durat ion Cr itical ity ind ices of a c tivities


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SUMMARY - III

S imulat ion results ca n be used to showthe errors in the PERT a nalys is .

A lar ge number of s imulat ion runs isneeded to obta in reaso nably rel iableest imates .(Stat ist ical infere nc e is used to determ inethe number of s imulat ion runs to est imatethe proje c t parameters w ith a pre spe cif iedpre cis ion a nd con f ide nc e)

l12a project simulation

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