l10 the broadcast century

LECTURE L10THE BROADCAST CENTURY

Why does this exist?

100 million hours / year

Few people do much, many do little

200 million minutes / day

Where do people find the time?

EARLY ENTERTAINMENT

"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"

-- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

Early music was performed live

Story telling

People got together to sing the songs of the day

Live culture - experiences

Participation: everyone was anentertainer

Read-Write Culture

Edison’s Phonograph1877

“The Talking Machine”

Emile Berliner’s Gramophone 1889

First radio broadcasts are in 1906

Commercial radio broadcasting starts in 1920s

Public’s need for information

Equipment manufactures

http://www.tuberadioland.com/westinghouseWR-30_main.html

Westinghouse Model WR-30 Gothic Style Tombstone Radio (1933)

Amateur operators - hobbyists

ENTER THE TV



For God’s sake go down to the reception and get rid of a lunatic who’s down there.

He says he’s got a machine for seeing by wireless! — Editor of the Daily Express in response to a prospective visit by John Logie Baird

John Logie Baird

Scottish inventor

Experimented with wireless transmission of images

First public television broadcast was 27. January 1926 in London

TV broadcast start in the 1930s

BBC starts broadcasts in 1936

Slow increase in consoles

Lack of standard

Color in the 50s

RCA begins production of its first color-TV set for consumers

Low quality Very expensive

In 1950 a market has emerged

US data:

1946 there are 20.000 TVs, 18 stations

1953 there are over 20 million TVs – 44% of households, 300 stations

TV in Iceland in 1966

Source:DataMonitor

According to IDATE, linear TV market revenue will grow from 368.9 billion euros in revenue in 2014 to 424.7 billion euros in 2018

Source:Statistica

According to IDATE, linear TV market revenue will grow from 368.9 billion euros in revenue in 2014 to 424.7 billion euros in 2018

Why is TV so powerful?

TV Watching

On average, individuals in the industrialised world devote three hours a day to watching TV

Gallup poll on TV Watching

Two out of five adult respondents and seven out of 10 teenagers said they spent too much time watching TV

Usually people are embarrassed to admit to watching much TV

TV Watching

A Formula for Addiction

TV is passive and relaxing

Reduces alertness

Effect is fast

Trigger - Behaviour - Reward - Repeat

Problem: TV addiction

A Formula for Addiction

23% of UK teenagers claim to watch less TV and 15% admit they read fewer books now that they have smartphones

TREND

1900 2000

Edison’s Phonograph

1877

Emile Berliner’sGramophone

1889 Radio

Broadcasts1920s

TVBroadcasts

1940s

The RecordIndustry - LPs

1950sCDs

1980sDVDs1990s

THE BROADCAST CENTURYONE 2 MANY

BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHEDREAD ONLY CULTURE

Lawrence LessigLaws that choke creativity

TV GOES DIGITAL



Analog StandardsNTSC, PAL, SECAM TVs supported different standards Broadcast: VHF (54-88 MHz, 174-216 MHz) UHF (470 to 890 MHz) Cable

Most countries switched off analogue transmission 2007-2009

Source:HowStuffWorks.com


Digital TV

DVB, ATSC, ISDB, DTMB, DBM H.262/MPEG …

Transmitted Radio, satellites, cables, fiber, ADSL or Web Benefits Better picture and better sound – more resolution Better use of bandwidth using compression

TV becomes a software problem - who cares about standards anymore


Normal TV has the ratio 4:3 (1,34:1)

HDTV has the aspect ratio 16:9 (1,78:1)

Digital TV

DIGITALFORMAT

1900 2000


1877


1889 Radio

Broadcasts1920s

TVBroadcasts

1940s


1950sCDs

1980sDVDs1990s

THE INTERNET REVOLUTION STARTSONE 2 MANY


INTERNET

Electronic Programming Guide

Additional Information

Time shiftDigital video recorders (DVRs) Recording television transmissions for later viewing

Examples TiVo, ReplayTV, DirectTV

Place Shift

Watch your TV everywhere in the world

Technology that allows you to watch your TV over the Internet

Slingbox

Pictures from www.oscar.com

VoD - Video-on-demand Goodbye to of the Video Store Change in distribution of content Delivered over the Internet, ADSLor cable, including fibre

Video On Demand

THE DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENTESCAPES

THE FORM

INTERNET DISRUPTION

BEGINS

DIGITALFORMAT

1900 2000


1877


1889 Radio

Broadcasts1920s

TVBroadcasts

1940s


1950sCDs

1980sDVDs1990s

THE DIGITAL DECADEONE 2 MANY


Streaming Videos

Netflix accounts for 35% of Internet traffic

People spend 1 billion hours / month watching Netflix

500 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube alone every minute

It would take an individual over 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 201

Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2019

Globally, consumer internet video traffic will be 80 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2019, up from 64 percent in 2014

Internet Video - “Over the Top”

Realse, Cisco

Source:Economist-Comingsoon

End of an Era

Digital Content is causing disruptions in the conventional value chain

DVD sales are slowing

Distribution of content is going to digital mediums

Traditional Broadcast TV Declines

Television consumption by 16 to 24-year-olds fell for the third year in a row

On average they watched 148 minutes per day last year, compared with 169 minutes in 2010 (UK data)

END OF BROADCASTING



Where do people find the time?

200 billion hours / year

Watching TV

100 million hours / year

2000 wikipedias / year

Clay ShirkyOn Cognitive Surplus

Since the 1940s people have been passively consuming TV

Now people are learning how to use free time more constructively for creative acts rather than consumptive ones, particularly with the advent of online tools that allow new forms of collaboration

Cognitive Surplus

Read-only Culture

f(x) = axk + o(xk)

MOVIESTARS

Chris AndersonOn the Long Tail

Hit culture

Bottlenecks in the Distribution channels

The Power Law

Pareto Principle

For many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes

Economy ofSCARCITY

Economy ofABUNDANCE

LONG TAIL

What percentage of the top 10,000 titles in any online media store (Netflix, iTunes, Amazon, or any other) will rent or sell at least once a month?

99%

USERGENERTATEDCONTENT

Youtube counter broke

EVERYBODYIS A

PRODUCER

Felix Arvid Ulf KjellbergPewDiePie

Swedish video game commentator

Annual Earnings: $7 millionSubscribers: 42,102,216Views: 11,187,386,766

MANY 2 MANY: PEER INTERACTION

ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED

READ WRITE CULTURE

ONE 2 MANY: BROADCASTING

BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED

READ ONLY CULTURE

BEFORE NOW

CONTROLLED BY GATEKEEPRS

CONTROLLED BY CONSUMERS/PRODUCERS

THE DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENTESCAPES

THE FORM

INTERNET DISRUPTION

BEGINS

DIGITALFORMAT

1900 2000


1877


1889 Radio

Broadcasts1920s

TVBroadcasts

1940s


1950sCDs

1980sDVDs1990s

One 2 Many Read only culture

WHAT IS NEXT?

THE DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENTESCAPESTHE FORM

INTERNET DISRUPTION

BEGINS

DIGITALFORMAT

1900 2000

CDs1980s

DVDs1990s


THE TRANSFORMATION

DECADE

BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE

SMARTPHONESREAL TIME SOFTWARE

CLOUD AND AI

2010

WHAT IS NEXT?

THE DIGITAL DECADE

THE CONTENTESCAPESTHE FORM

INTERNET DISRUPTION

BEGINS

DIGITALFORMAT

1900 2000

CDs1980s

DVDs1990s


THE TRANSFORMATION

DECADE

BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE

SMARTPHONESREAL TIME SOFTWARE

CLOUD AND AI

2010

THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE

Future of TV

NEXT

Digital Transformation