Application of Theories

(SOBA 202B)

Lecture week 1:Introduction and overview

Andreas Flache, a.flache@rug.nl

Manu Muñoz-Herrera, e.m.munoz.herrera@rug.nl

Semester 2a, 2012/2013

How could you explain this?

› Opinions often cluster locally within geographical regions,

socio-demographic groups, or internet communities › The distribution of political opinions is (sometimes) bi-

polarized

Why is there clustering of opinions and/or opinion polarization?

Under which conditions is there clustering/polarization?

How can we prevent it?

Aim of this courseLearning how to develop and apply good explanations of social phenomena

– Social phenomenon X: observation, description– Theory: why do we observe X?– Generating (new) testable hypotheses with theory:

• if this is why we see X, then what else should we see (Y,Z)?• And under what conditions should we see X, Y and Z?

– Application: If our theory is right, what would be a good policy

to influence X, Y or Z?

→ This course focuses on methods and standards for developing and applying theoretical explanations

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Do it yourself

Theories consist of assumptions (= speculation)

Explanation:Logically derive phenomenon from assumptions–Clearly state what you want to explain–Clearly state what you assume –If needed: think up your own assumptions!–Use your theory creatively: always think of new ways how you can test and apply your theories

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A simple example: friendships in a dorm

(based on Lave & March 1993, chapter 2)

Observation:

In student dorms, friends live close to each other

Somewhat simplified but more precise:

If two students in a dorm are friends, they share a room or live in adjacent rooms.

WHY????

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A first explanation

A bit more precise:•If two students are friends they ask to be put in the same or adjacent rooms.•If two students ask to be put in the same or adjacent rooms, the director puts them together.

→ clearly formulate your assumptions

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Reconstructing the explanation

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• In spring, a number of students are friends of each other (additional assumption)

+• If two students are friends they ask to be put in the same or

adjacent rooms.=

• A number of students asks to be put in the same or adjacent room

+• If two students ask to be put in the same or adjacent rooms,

the director puts them together.

=If two students in a dorm are friends, they share a room or live in adjacent rooms. (this is what we wanted to explain)

Fertility: can our theory explain other things?

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Consider this new observation:– Also for first year students, who don’t know

each other in spring, friends live together. – But in spring, there are not yet friendships.

Our theory can not explain this.

Develop a theory that can explain this for both first-year and elder year students.

Features of good explanations (Lave & March)

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1. Simplicity• Few and clear assumptions

2. Fertility• Make your explanation as generally applicable as

possible → generate many new testable predictions

3. Surprise • Counter-intuitive predictions (e.g. unintended

consequences)

Competing explanations: think of a critical test

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• Suppose you have two explanations of the same phenomenon

• Then derive from both underlying theories two contradicting predictions for the same situation.

• And test them for this situation → only one can be right

Example: two competing explanations for residential segregation–housing prices and income inequality–racial homophily

Schedule and rules

Each week there will be a lecture and a practical:Lecture: - provides all subject matter, based on literaturePractical: - provides additional information

- practice & ask questionsAssignments on Nestor (after the lecture) to prepare for practical. Assignments will not be graded but you are expected to prepare them. In some weeks (to be announced), you can submit written assignments (in English) to get individual feedback and extra points for the exam.

Material

•Reader (from repro): literature

•Nestor page (assignments and additional literature)

•Course schedule from Nestor: lliterature per week

Exam

When? Thursday, April 9, 14:00 – 16:00

Where? A. Jacobshal

Resit

When? Tuesday, June 25, 14:00 – 16:00

Where? A. Jacobshal

Week 1

• Introduction to the course

• Practical will focus on a typical research problem

Why did crime rates fall in the early 90ies in the US?

Week 2

Explanation and Prediction

• Learn how to explain and/or predict phenomena

• What criteria define an adequate explanation or prediction?

• Are there alternative methods?

• Frequently encountered problems and a checklist.

Week 3

Formal Logic

• Learn how to formulate valid arguments/explanations.

• Learn how to test whether an argument/explanation is valid.

• Learn core methods of so called “propositional logic” and “syllogistic logic”

• How to generalize and specify concepts and statements?

Week 4

How to criticize a theory?

•What defines a good theory/explanation?

•How to formulate a good theory/explanation?

•How to criticize a theory/explanation?

Week 5Explaining social phenomena based on

theories about individual behavior

• Why should one do this?

• How is this done?

• What is emergence?

Week 6

Applying theories to practical problems

•How to use theories to attack real-life problems?

•Frequently encountered problems

Week 7

Summary and preparation for the exam