l-06b analysis of results

7/23/2019 L-06b Analysis of Results

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Hydrologic Engineering Center 1

Analysis of Results

HEC-ResSim Output Options



Fundamental Questions

How do you review a simulation?

Viewing Output

Customizing Output

Calibration v. Verification Testing different scenarios – “Trials”

How do you determine if one alternative is better

than another?



CONGRATULATIONS !!!

Now What?

…View and Evaluate the results

ResSim Compute Complete …



Revisit Purpose of Model Considerations such as Flood Damage Reduction, Water

Supply, Environmental, Hydroelectric

Calibration

Adjusting model parameters to match observed Refinement

Adjusting model parameters to produce desired operation

Trials-Testing Different Scenarios

Verification Ascertaining that a model produces desired behavior/results

under a variety of expected conditions

Viewing and Evaluating Results



ResSim Output Options

Informative Text

Compute Window (previous slide)

Compute Log for Alternatives

ResSim Console Log

Summary Reports Basic Statistics

Release Decisions

Time Series

Plots Tables



Compute Log

Reports Menu:

Compute

One log for each

computed

alternative



Compute Information

Details of theCompute

ComputeBlocking andOrdering

Time-Seriesprocessing

Notes,Warnings, &Errors

Compute Passes



Summary ReportsReservoirs

Basic Statistics ofReservoir Parametersfor all reservoirs forthe checked

alternatives Average Maximum

Minimum



Summary ReportsFlows

Basic Statistics for AllLocations (for all selectedalternatives)

Reservoirs

Junctions

Reaches Flow Types

Regulated

Unregulated

Cumulative Local



Release Decision Report

Available from:

Reservoir

Context Menu

Reports Menu



Release Decision Report

First Row:Initial Conditions

Second Row:Active Zone

Release “Rules” Objective Constraint

Third RowDate & Time

EOP Elevation

Net Inflow

Total PoolRelease

Releases fromeach outlet



Time Series Output

HEC-ResSim

Plots & Tables

Pre-defined (Default)

User DefinedHEC-DSSVue

Plots

Tables

Computations



Pre-defined (Default) Plots

Select Location

Select “Plot”

from Location

Context Menu



Default Reservoir Plot

Viewports Elevation

Zones

Computed Elev

Flow

Inflow

Outflow

Start Time “Marker”

Pointer & ZoomTools

Legend



Junction Inflow-Outflow Plot

Junction Outflow

Routed Inflow

Incremental LocalInflow



Customizing a Plot

Context Menu Edit Properties

Hide Curve

Add Callouts

Plot Menu

Select Variables… Save Plot Type…

Edit Menu Plot Properties

Default Plot Properties

Default Line Styles

File Menu Save Template

Apply Template



Variables

Region

Vertical Axis

Parameter

dependent

Reversible

Left or Right

Plot Menu: Select Variables



Save Plot Type

Select Availability

All Watersheds, or

Current Watershed

Name your “User” Plot

Open Plot Type

Same as …

Plot MenuSave and Open Plot Type



From a plot’s “File” Menu

Tabulate

Tabulating Time Series Results



File Menu

Print & Plot

Edit Menu

Clipboard Copy/Paste

View Menu

Format Columns

Options for Time Series Tables



Alternatives Analysis

Establish Baseline conditions, and determine

feasibility or impact of proposed project.

Compare different operations to balance

various objectives and goals.

Maximize benefits and minimize adverse

impacts.

Perform sensitivity analysis.



Evaluation Criteria

The “Columbia River Reservoir System Analysis”

report proposed four indices for evaluating and

comparing alternatives:

Penalty, or Value

Reliability

Resiliency

Vulnerability

(HEC, PR-21,1993)



Economic Value

Value or Penalty is the economic impact from

the operation

Flood-damage reduction =

Damage without – with project operation

Power benefits = Capacity value + Energy generated

Penalty functions are used in the Prescriptive

Reservoir Model (HEC-PRM)

If functions were in equivalent dollars, the total value

can be computed as the sum of all individual values.

Value functions can be applied to simulation output

Difficult to put economic value on many objectives



Reliability

Reliability is the frequency that performance is

able to meet a particular purpose's target.

A reliability of 100% implies that the target is

always met.

In simulation, instances of failure to meet target(shortages) imply a reliability less than 100%.



Resiliency

Resiliency is a measure of a system’s ability to

recover from failure.

A resiliency index was defined as the number of

recoveries divided by the number of failing

months. Resiliency of 100% implies that the system always

recovers, that is the system does not fail to meet a

target in two successive months.



Vulnerability

Vulnerability indicates the magnitude of typical

failures.

A deviation is the difference between the target

(e.g., diversion schedule) and the actual value.

For storage, the average difference between theguide curve and the simulated pool elevation

could be an indicator of vulnerability.

The smaller the average the better, if the guide

curve is the ideal.



Flow-duration fornatural & regulated flowshows impact ofregulation.

Seasonal durationshown for criticalmonths of operation.

Percent chance ofexceeding flow duringseason

Statistical: Flow-Duration Curve

S i i l



The Annual PoolElevation-Durationfor a reservoir

provides asummary indicatingthe percent chancethe pool is at orabove an elevation

during the year.

Statistical:Pool Elevation-Duration

l



Chance of not

exceeding a value

Mean flow for

several durationsare shown

e.g., there is a 67%chance of a 1-dayflow not exceeding1.0 cfs in the year.

Low-FlowFrequency

A l i f R l HEC



Questions?…

Analysis of Results…HEC-ResSim Output Options

l-06b analysis of results

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