kxgs 6105 quantitative risk assessment - l1.pptx
TRANSCRIPT
DEPARTMENT OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA
SEMESTER 2 (SESSION 2015/2016)
Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
2
Lecturer : Dr. Jegalakshimi JEmail : [email protected] : via email / watsapp
Will contact the class rep about class crelated matters and update on spectrum.
Learning Outcomes
Understand the principles of QRAAble to identify the stages of risk assessmentAble to carry out a risk assessment study for
hazardous industry and environmental health.
References
Lees, F.P., Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2nd Ed., Butterworth-Jinemann, 1996.
CCPS, Guidelines for Consequence Analysis of Chemical Releases, AIChE, 1999.
CCPS, Guidelines for Evaluating the Characteristics of VCE, Flash Fire and BLEVES, AIChE, 1994.
Crowl, D.A. and Louvar, J.F., Chemical Process Safety: Fundamental with Applications, 3rd Ed., Prentice Hall Publications.
SPECTRUM Account
Notes, assignments, solutions, grades etc. will be posted on SPECTRUM.
http://spectrum.um.edu.my
Assessment
Continous assessment (50%)
Group assignments
Test
30 %
20 %
Examination (50%)
Final examination 50 %
Important Notes
Passing mark is 65% (B)Student with less than 80% attendance will
be barred from examination.
Class Monitor
Notes, assignments etc.Replacement class
Groups
Please form into 10 students per groupAll assignments must be done in groups
An Overview of Quantitative Risk Assessment
Risk assessment is the determination of risk related to a situation and a recognised hazard.
It includes scenario identification and consequence analysis.
Scenario identification describes how an accident occurs and frequently includes the analysis of the probabilities.
Consequence analysis describes the damage expected including the loss of life, damage to the environment or capital equipment and days outage.
Hazard identification procedures include some aspects of risk assessment.
Risk Assessment and Decision Making
Risk vs Hazard
video
Control measure
Risk Ranking/Risk Matrix
Risk ranking is a semi quantitative method of determining risk.
Add-on extra to hazard identification studiesWhen a hazard identification team have identified a
hazard, they need to decide whether the existing risk is acceptable or not.
This is done by considering the likelihood and consequences of the event bearing in mid the safeguards that are normally in place.
During the discussion, a consensus will be reached on whether the risk is acceptable or unacceptable, or the problem will be referred for further analysis.
Risk Ranking/Risk Matrix
Risk ranking can help the team to reach a consensus regarding the risks identified by assigning relative risk ranking numbers.
This enables all of the risk identified within the study to be compared and prioritized.
Risk Ranking Approach
1. Discuss and agree the consequence of the event and then assign a Severity Index.
2. Discuss and agree the likelihood of this event and then assign a Frequency Index.
3. Calculate the resulting Risk Index by multiplying the two numbers.Risk Index = Severity Index x Frequency Index
Risk Ranking Approach
The resulting Risk Index may then be compared with criteria to decide whether the risk is low, medium or high (negligible, tolerable or intolerable). The same approach can be used to determine the effectiveness of the recommendations the team makes by seeing how much they reduce the Risk Index.
Example of a Risk Matrix
Probability Accident Severity Catastrophi
cI
Fatal/Critical
II
Severe/Marginal
III
Minor/Negligible
IVFrequent A A A BProbable A A B COccasional A B C CRemote B C C CImprobable C C C CImplausible C C C C
Risk Classification
Risk Class DefinitionA IntolerableB Undesirable and shall only be accepted by the Project
Safety Committee if risk reduction is impracticableC Tolerable with the endorsement of the Project Safety
Committee
Background to Quantitative Risk Assessment
At the QRA: Alchemy to Acceptability Conference in London (1993) 1980: Major Oil Company Rep.
“QRA is equivalent to counting the number of angels that can stand on the head of a pin.”
1985: International Study Group on Risk Analysis“The whole analytical exercise might be considered to be objective. However, it must be realised that because of the large body of assumptions, estimates, judgements and opinions involved, much of the input information is often subjective.”
1993: Major Oil Company Risk Engineering Standard “QRA is a tool which helps translate hindsighgt (accident) into
foresight (planning)…showing ways and means to prevent the calculated accidents from happening.”
Background to Quantitative Risk Assessment
What can go wrong? Hazard IdentificationHow bad? Consequence ModellingHow often? Frequency EstimationSo what? Risk AssessmentWhat do I do? Risk Management
Stages of QRA
Represented in term of flow diagram.It is very flexible and has been used to guide the
application of risk assessment of many hazardous activities.
1st stage: System description/definition – defining the installation or the activity whose risks are to be analysed.
2nd stage: Hazard identification – consists of qualitative review of possible accidents which may occur, based on previous accident experience or judgment where necessary.
3rd stage: Frequency Analysis and Consequence Modelling are done in parallel.
Flow Diagram of QRA
Strengths of QRA
Limitations of QRA
Standards
Assignment 1• What is risk?• What is risk analysis?• What is risk assessment?• Risk analysis and assessment processes• Risk perceptions• How to measure risk• Hazard• Classification of hazard• Difference between hazard and risk• Strengths of QRA• Limitations of QRA• Standards
Risk
Types of Risk
Risk Perceptions
How to measure Risk?
Hazard
Classification of Hazard
Differences Between Hazard and Risk
- See more at: http://www.izenbridge.com/blog/differentiating-quantitative-risk-analysis-and-qualitative-risk-analysis/#sthash.aEBWb27X.dpuf