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Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” R E S E A R C H
Qatar Stock Market Outlook, 2016
Outlook - Neutral
Expectations 2016
Current Expectations UAE
Economic Factors Neutral
Valuation Attraction Positive
Earnings Growth Potential Neutral
Market Liquidity Negative
Overall Market View Neutral
Source: Markaz Research
We were positive for Qatar in our last year assessment. However, the sudden
and persistent decline in oil prices resulted in Qatar’s stock index tanking by 15%
during 2015. The decline in index levels has made valuations attractive but our
expectations for earnings growth remains flat for the year ahead. Despite the
emerging market status, prevailing negative investor sentiments amid declining
commodity prices, especially gas, could work against Qatar in the medium term.
Low oil prices have completely shifted the balance of the global economy. Almost
all of the GCC countries have to live with the low oil prices that are considered
the new normal. This prolonged decline in prices have resulted in most
international agencies such as IMF and IIF to reduce their growth forecasts for
Qatar at 4.9% and 4.3% respectively (real GDP growth) for 2016 in view of
lower revenues from gas and allied industries and government spending cuts.
Going forward, we evaluate the attractiveness of the Qatar stock market based
on four-factor model.
Valuation: Positive
Price-to-earnings multiple for Qatar has fallen by 25% and currently stands at
11.1x. Qatar market is relatively undervalued when compared to the markets of
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Investor interest in the market waned post 2014 owing
to poor international conditions. Qatar also has the highest dividend yield in the
region at 5.1%. Telecom and Industrial indices were worst affected, falling by -
33.6% and -21.1% respectively.
Earnings: Neutral
We expect corporate earnings growth to be slightly negative in 2016. Earnings
are expected to slightly reduce as infrastructure spending peaks. Real estate and
commodities sector in Qatar are expected to be worst hit with their earnings
expected to decline by -10% and -15% respectively. Declining oil and gas prices
could affect the commodities sector. Real estate firms in the country witnessed a
sharp correction in the 2nd half of 2015 which could continue into 2016 as well.
Earnings from the telecom sector are also not expected to increase given the
decline in ARPUs and maturing markets. Hence, we have a neutral view on
earnings for Qatar.
January 2016
Research Highlights:
Analysis of Qatar’s stock market performance in 2015 and
providing outlook for 2016 based on four-factor model.
Markaz Research is
available on
Bloomberg - Type “MRKZ” <Go>
Thomson Research,
Reuters Knowledge
Nooz
Zawya Investor
ISI Emerging markets
Capital IQ
FactSet Research Connect
TheMarkets.com
M.R. Raghu CFA, FRM
Head of Research
+965 2224 8280
N. C. Karthik Ramesh
Manager - Research
+965 224 8000 Ext : 4611
Rakesh Khanna
Analyst +965 2224 8000 Ext: 4612
Kuwait Financial Centre
K.P.S.C “Markaz”
P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095,
Kuwait
Tel: +965 2224 8000
Fax: +965 2242 5828
markaz.com
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 2
Economy: Neutral
Growth in Qatar is expected to be moderate (4.9% Real GDP growth for 2016)
on account of calculated spending cuts. Qatar, in its recent budget has
announced to reduce the budget spending by 7.28% to $ 55 Bn. Major
infrastructure spending has been left untouched with the spending cuts expected
to affect in the excess in state-funded organizations such as Qatar Museums,
Qatar Foundation and Al Jazeera1. The government has also announced that it is
planning to borrow from abroad as well as within the region to fund its deficit
instead of dipping into its reserves. Given the cost associated with borrowing
funds we expect Qatar government to invest them in sectors that contribute
positively to the economy. Current account balance is expected to turn negative
and IMF expects current account deficit of 3.9% during 2016. Based on the
above we have provided a neutral rating on Qatar’s economy.
Market Liquidity: Negative
Stock turnover ratio stood at 13% in 2015 as value traded for the year fell by
56% to USD 23bn from USD 41bn registered a year back. Qatar has a long way
to go to reach KSA’s turnover levels of 93%. 2014 being the year of Qatar’s
inclusion in MSCI Emerging Market Index witnessed hectic investor activity.
Consequently, the fall in value traded could be a result of foreign investment cap
for stocks being already met and no further scope for fresh investments. Global
slowdown, meltdown in the Chinese markets and the resultant negative investor
sentiments were the reason behind poor performance of the market. Given the
knock-on effect that these factor have on the global investor sentiment we do
not expect the market volumes to improve in 2016. Owing to poor investor
sentiments there were no IPOs that came out in Qatar during 2015. Hence, we
have a negative view on the liquidity of Qatar’s stock market.
In sum, we believe that only 1 out of 4 factors are positive for Qatar and hence
we take neutral stance on the Qatar market.
Qatar Index, Performance (in %), 2007-2015
Source: Reuters
1 Doha News
34%
-28%
1%
25%
1%
-5%
24%
18%
-15%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Qatar, in its recent budget has
announced to reduce the
budget spending by 7.28% to $
55 Bn.
Global slowdown, meltdown in
the Chinese markets and the
resultant negative investor
sentiments were the reason
behind poor performance of the
market.
In Qatar, Telecom and
Industrials indices lost 33.6%
and 21.1% respectively.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 3
What Happened in 2015?
Monthly Market Performance
Markets Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 July'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15
2015
YTD
Qatar(QE
Index) -3.1% 4.6% -5.9% 3.9% -1.0% 1.3% -3.4% -1.9% -0.9% 1.2% -13.0% 3.4% -15.1%
S&P GCC 2.8% 4.4% -6.9% 10.1% -2.3% -3.5% 0.1% -13.2% -1.1% -2.7% -2.3% -2.4% -17.4%
IPE Brent -7.6% 18.1% -11.9% 21.2% -1.8% -3.0% -17.9% 3.7% -10.7% 2.5% -10.0% -16.4% -35.0%
Source: Reuters Eikon;
Qatar index, which was majorly flat until June 2015, started declining in the
latter half of the year. GCC markets were rocked by the fall in Chinese equities
which resulted in region wide selling. Uncertainty over oil prices and political
situation in the region only helped to exacerbate the problem. Qatar market fell
sharply in November 2015; Qatar lost -13.0%.
In Qatar, Telecom and Industrials indices lost 33.6% and 21.1% respectively.
Ooredoo QSC, which is Qatar’s largest telecom operator in terms of market
capitalization, fell by 40% during 2015. Ooredoo Qatar had registered total
earnings of $207.64 Mn during the first 9 months of 2015 (doubling its net profit)
helped by improved profit margins and sale of stake in Philippines Company Wi-
Tribe. However, the Trailing twelve months (TTM) Earnings per share (EPS) fell
from QAR 7.9 last year to QAR 5.7 currently due to the performance in Q4 2014
which was badly hit on account of foreign exchange losses in Indonesia and
higher operating costs in Myanmar and Algeria2. Despite the increase in profits
over the last three quarters, Ooredoo’s performance was dismal at the stock
market owing to mobile saturation in major markets such as Kuwait and Qatar.
Ooredoo’s investment in Iraq is under threat due to geopolitical developments.
Ooredoo’s PE (TTM) ratio fell from 15.7x at the end of 2014 to 11.7x at the end
of 2015. The fall is primarily attributed to the fall in the share price (-40%).
However, the fall in PE would have been greater if not for the poor financial
performance in Q4 2014.
Transportation, Real Estate and Insurance were the only sectors to achieve
positive returns during the year gaining 4.9%, 3.9% and 1.6% respectively.
Among transportation stocks in Qatar market, Gulf Warehousing Company gave
the highest return during the year at 10.53%. The positive performance in the
stock market was driven by the steady rate of growth in its net profits in the first
nine months of 2015. GWC witnessed 31.9% increase in net profits compared to
the same period last year. The company’s sports logistics activities, Equestrian
logistics and art partnership all had a very active 3rd quarter. GWC is also
expanding rapidly at Logistics Village Qatar and at Ras Laffan Industrial facilities.
Qatar insurance was the only company in the insurance sector to end 2015 on a
positive note with 4.08% increase in share price.
2 Reuters
GCC markets were rocked by
the fall in Chinese equities
which resulted in region wide
selling.
Ooredoo’s performance was
dismal at the stock market
owing to mobile saturation in
major markets such as Kuwait
and Qatar.
Qatar insurance was the only
company in the insurance sector
to end 2015 on a positive note
with 4.08% increase in share
price.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 4
Qatar Index, Sector-wise, 2015
Source: Reuters
Banking and Industrial sector stocks account for almost 61% of the market
capitalization of the Qatar index.
Qatar Stock Index, Sector-wise weights, 2015
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange
Qatar National Bank (QNB), which is the largest lender in the GCC region and is
the largest company listed on the Qatar stock exchange, achieved a 6.1 percent
increase in third-quarter net profit. The bank made a net profit of $854 million in
the three months to Sept. 30, up from $791 million a year before. Lending
growth in Qatar is a significant driver of banking profits, propelled by large
government spending on infrastructure ahead of the state's hosting of the FIFA
World Cup in 2022. Bank credit growth in Qatar accelerated to an annual 15.0
percent in August, the fastest rate since February 20143. Qatar Islamic bank
which is the 3rd largest bank in Qatar in terms of market capitalization generated
a nine-month net profit of $38 Mn, up from $30Mn a year earlier (an increase of
3 Qatar Central Bank
-15.1%
4.9% 3.9% 1.9%
-12.4%
-13.1% -21.1%
-33.6%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Qata
r Index
Tra
nsp
orta
tion
Real E
state
Insu
rance
BFSI
Consu
mer G
oods
Industria
ls
Tele
com
39%
22%
17%
6% 6%
5% 4% Banks & Financial Services
Industrials
Real Estate
Transportation
Insurance
Consumer Goods and Services
Telecom
Bank credit growth in Qatar
accelerated to an annual 15.0
percent in August, the fastest
rate since February 2014.
Industries Qatar, one of the
bell-weather stock in the Qatar
stock exchange, fell by 33.87%
in 2015.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 5
26%). The bank's net fee and commission income over the same period was $93
Mn, 19 percent higher than a year ago. Qatar Islamic bank has gained 4.4%
during 2015.
Industries Qatar, one of the bell-weather stocks in the Qatar stock exchange, fell
by 33.87% in 2015. Industries Qatar group recorded strong financial results
across all segments during 2015 amidst the current economic environment as
the sales volumes grew in excess of 12% following the return to normal
operations of most of the group’s productions facilities which were on extensive
maintenance during the first half of 2014. Selling prices in the petrochemical and
steel segments were impacted significantly due to the prevailing low oil prices.
Net profit for the 9 month period was $ 1.02 billion, down by $ 243 Mn or 18.8%
against the same period in 2014.
Qatar Electricity and Water was the only stock in the industrial sector to end the
year on a positive note gaining 15.41%. The utility firm made a nine-month net
profit of $307 Mn, down from $315 Mn in the same period of last year.
Large Cap4
Top Gainers-Large Cap
Company Sector M Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close
YTD returns (in %)
P/E P/B Div
Yield Beta ADTV5
Qatar Electricity and Water Co QSC
Utilities 6,536 216.4 15% 15.9 3.4 0.85 3.5 High
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co QSC
Consumer Non-
Cyclicals 1,208 220 10% 21.7 3.3 0.92 4.1 High
Ezdan Holding Group QSC Financials 11,581 15.9 7% 26.9 1.4 1.48 2.5 High
Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ Financials 6,923 106.7 4% 13.4 1.7 1.13 4.0 High
Qatar Insurance Co SAQ Financials 4,157 82 4% 16.0 2.7 0.79 2.7 High
Source: Reuters; ADTV – Average Daily Trading Volume
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) made a nine-month net profit of 1.41 billion riyals, up
from 1.13 billion riyals a year earlier. Nine-month income from financing and
investing activities was 2.8 billion riyals, up 24 percent year-on-year. Qatar
Insurance reported a 20 percent fall in net profit for the third quarter. Qatar
Insurance recorded a net profit in the first nine months of 2015 of 693 million
riyals, down from 780 million riyals (-11%) in the same period of 2014. Ezdan
holdings generated a profit of 1.2 billion riyals (20% growth) in the first nine
months of 2015, up from 1 billion riyals in the corresponding period of last year.
Top Five Decliners-Large Cap
4 Stocks listed in Qatar with market capitalization value of greater than USD 1,000mn have been considered as large caps for our analysis
5 ADTV Rating: High- Greater than USD 50,031; Low- Less than USD 31,270 & Average - Rest
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 6
Company Sector M Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close
YTD returns (in %)
P/E P/B Div
Yield Beta ADTV
Gulf International Services QSC
Industrials 2,628 51.5 -47.0 6.6 2.4 10.7 1.30 High
Ooredoo QSC Telecommunications Services
6,597 75 -39.5 13.2 1.1 5.3 1.02 High
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co QSC
Basic Materials 6,692 19.4 -34.2 20.2 1.8 5.7 0.00 High
Industries Qatar QSC
Industrials 18,457 111.1 -33.9 12.3 2.0 6.3 1.00 High
Qatar Fuel QSC Energy 3,421 147.5 -27.8 10.7 1.9 6.1 0.60 High
Source: Reuters
Ooredoo QSC, which is Qatar’s largest telecom operator in terms of market
capitalization, fell by 39.47% during 2015. Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding
Company (MPHC) generated a net profit of QR786.19 million for the first nine
months of 2015, down 34.29% year-on-year. The year-on-year decrease in
earnings was a result of a number of maintenance shutdowns combined with
slowdown in global oil prices. Masraf Al Arayan’s net profit for the nine months to
Sept. 30 was 1.51 billion riyals, compared with 1.43 billion riyals in the same
period a year ago. Financing activities for the nine-month period reached 59.9
billion riyals, up by 9.2 percent from the same period in 2014.
Mid Cap6
Top Gainers7-Mid cap
Company Sector M Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close
YTD returns (in %)
P/E P/B Div
Yield Beta ADTV
Gulf Warehousing Co QSC Industrials 929 56.9 11% 17.1 3.2 0.87 2.4 High Medicare Group QSC Healthcare 922 119.3 2% 17.1 3.7 1.36 4.2 High
Zad Holding Co SAQ Consumer
Non-Cyclicals 502 84.8 1% 9.8 1.4 0.42 4.7 Average
Source: Reuters
There were three companies that generated positive return in this segment. Gulf
Warehousing Company gave the highest return during the year at 11%. The
positive performance in the stock market was driven by the steady rate of
growth in its net profits in the first nine months of 2015. Net profit for Medicare
Group in the first nine months of the year rose 12.5% to about QR 128.8 million
compared to QR 114.5 million in the corresponding period last year. The increase
in profits was driven by the 17% increase in revenues during the 1st 9 months of
2015. Total revenues of the Zad Holdings in the first nine months increased by
23% to QR 799.2 million, including QR 90.5 million compensation from the
government to support bread price. Direct cost rose 21.8% to QR 639 million
and accordingly the overall operating profit rose 21.8% to QR 160.2 million. Net
profit for Zad Holding Company in the first nine months fell to QR 126.76 million
compared to QR 147 million in the corresponding period last year.
6 Stocks listed in Qatar with market capitalization value of lesser than USD 1,000mn but greater than USD 500mn have been considered as mid-caps for our analysis 7 There are only four stocks in the Qatar stock exchange that could be classified as Mi-cap stocks
Ooredoo QSC, which is Qatar’s
largest telecom operator in
terms of market capitalization,
fell by 39.47% during 2015.
Masraf Al Arayan’s net profit for
the nine months to Sept. 30
was 1.51 billion riyals,
compared with 1.43 billion riyals
in the same period a year ago.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 7
Mid Cap8
Top decliners -Mid cap
Company Sector M Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close
YTD returns (in %)
P/E P/B Div
Yield Beta ADTV
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co QSC
Industrials 520 39.85 -8% 13.0 1.3 0.49 7.5 High
Source: Reuters
Gross profit for Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Company from its sales in the first
nine months of the year rose 9.3% to QR 45.9 million. Net profit for Qatar
Industrial Manufacturing Company (QIMC) in 9 months stood at QR 135 million
compared to QR 141 million in the corresponding period last year. The stock
declined by 8% in 2015
Small Cap9
Top Gainers-Small Cap
Companies Sector M. Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close 2015 P/E P/B Beta
Div. Yield
ADTV
Qatari German Company for Medical Devices QSC
Healthcare 44 13.72 35% nm 1.0 0.67 0.0 High
Source: Reuters
Qatari German Company for medical devices was the only company in the small
cap segment to achieve positive share price gain in 2015. Qatari German
Company for Medical Devices net loss in the first nine months to stand at QR 9.4
million compared to QR 9.9 million in the corresponding period last year. Gross
operational revenues of the company together with other income in the first nine
months declined 52% to about QR 357 thousand. Total expenses decreased by
22.1% to QR 6.7 million. Stock of Qatari Company gained by 35% in 2015.
Top Five Decliners-Small Cap
Company Sector M Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close
YTD returns (in %)
P/E P/B Div
Yield Beta ADTV
Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding Co QSC
Financials 144 18.49 -45% nm 1.9 1.13 0.0 High
Al Khaleej Takaful Group QSC Financials 214 30.5 -31% 15.1 1.3 0.79 4.3 High Alijarah Holding Co QSC Industrials 192 14.1 -30% nm 0.6 0.79 6.0 High Doha Insurance Co QSC Financials 288 21 -28% 15.5 1.0 0.71 4.8 Low Salam International Investment QSC
Industrials 371 11.82 -25% 17.6 0.8 0.66 5.1 High
Source: Reuters
Net loss of Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding Company in the first nine
months of the year stood at QR 24.1 million compared to net profit of QR 62.29
million in the corresponding period last year. Net operating revenue of Dlala
Brokerage and Investment Holding Company in 9 months fell 59.9% to QR 33.5
million, of which QR 23.9 million net brokerage revenues, which fell by more
8 Stocks listed in Qatar with market capitalization value of lesser than USD 1,000mn but greater than USD 500mn have been considered as mid-caps for our analysis 9 Stocks listed in Qatar with market capitalization value of lesser than USD 500mn have been considered as small caps for our analysis
Gross profit for Qatar Industrial
Manufacturing Company from
its sales in the first nine months
of the year rose 9.3% to QR
45.9 million.
Qatari German company for
medical devices was the only
company in the small cap
segment to achieve positive
share price gain in 2015.
Al Khaleej Takaful Group net
profit in the nine months stood
at QR 32.2 million, a decline of
41.4% compared to net profit of
QR 55.1 million in the
corresponding period last year.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 8
than half owing to lower trades that took place in Qatar stock exchange.
Expenses of all kinds, including depreciation, marginally increased to QR 21.4
million. Alijarah Holding posted a net loss of QR 42.4 million in Q3 2015
compared to net profit amounting to QR 36.5 million for the same period of the
previous year. Al Khaleej Takaful Group net profit in the nine months stood at QR
32.2 million, a decline of 41.4% compared to net profit of QR 55.1 million in the
corresponding period last year. The company's net income in the first nine
months of the year fell 41.6% to QR 63.5 million, of which QR 25.9 million came
from Takaful insurance agency income and QR 28.5 million from investment
income and the rest from others, noting that most of the decline was result of
lower investment income. Doha Insurance was the latest, reporting a net profit
of QR42 million in the first three quarters of 2015. This is down from QR57
million during the same period of last year. Salam International Investment’s net
profit was down 1.9% year-on-year to QR65.9 million, from QR67.2 million in the
same period of last year.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 9
What to expect in 2016?
We base our analysis on a set of four factors, which we believe will influence and
impact market performance. We have assigned weights to each of these factors
based on our assumption about the degree of influence it would have on the
stock market performance as a whole in 2016. An explanatory note for all the
five factors can be found in Appendix 1.
Five-Force Framework
Source: Markaz Research
1. Earnings Growth Potential
The total corporate earnings of Qatar is expected to increase by 4.7% during
2015. Qatar had the highest earnings growth out of all the GCC countries during
the first three quarters of 2015. Revenues from the banking and real estate
sector were the ones responsible for the strong performance. Earnings from the
real estate sector grew at a rate of 129.4% (YoY) while the earnings from the
banks grew at 7% (YoY) during the same period. Real estate sector’s earnings
were boosted by the one-off gain that Barwa real estate was able to achieve.
Banking sector has a larger impact on the total earnings for Qatar accounting for
44% of the earnings.
GCC Stock Market
Assessment
Valuation Attraction
25%
Market Liquidity
10%
Economic Factors
25%
Earnings Growth Potential
40%
Qatar had the highest earnings
growth out of all the GCC
countries during the first three
quarters of 2015. Revenues
from the banking and real
estate sector were the ones
responsible for the strong
performance.
Earnings from the real estate
sector grew at a rate of 129.4%
(YoY) while the earnings from
the banks grew at 7% (YoY)
during the same period.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 10
Earnings Trend – Qatar (USD mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
We expect banks to maintain their momentum as the economy continues with its
infrastructure expansion and continued credit growth expectations. Real Estate is
another sector that has witnessed tremendous increase in profits over the last
year. Barwa Real estate’s profit rose by 4X till September 2015 which has helped
in boosting the sector’s revenue as a whole. But owing to the real estate sector’s
reliance on oil as an important growth driver and a higher base effect, we expect
the real estate sector to perform negatively in 2016.
Qatar, with a population of 2.16 Mn and high mobile penetration of 100%10,
offers an intense competitive environment for telecom operators. Ooredoo and
Vodafone Qatar are the only two companies to offer mobile services in the
country. Both of these operators have achieved saturating point and currently
experiencing a significant drop in ARPUs (Average Revenue per User).
At the start of 2016, we expect overall earnings growth to be marginally negative
at -0.6%. While Qatar has been diversifying its source of revenues, the payoff
from them is not expected to be immediate. Banks and construction related
sectors alone are expected to post positive earnings in 2016, the former owing to
the strong local consumption demand and credit growth, the latter owing to the
huge infrastructure spending that the Qatar government has been undertaking in
its preparation for the Football World Cup in 2022.On a overall level we expect
the earnings growth to be subdued in 2016 and hence hold a neutral view.
2. Valuation Attraction
On a standalone P/E basis, Qatar, with a ratio of 11.1x of the earnings, appears
to trade at lower valuation level compared to peers such as KSA & Kuwait. On
P/B basis Qatar market is the most expensive among all GCC nations at 1.6x.
Dividend yield for Qatar stands at 5.1% which is the highest among GCC along
with Bahrain. On an overall basis, we adopt a positive view on Qatar.
10 Telegeography
2,843 3,840
5,529
7,460
9,094
8,133
10,300 10,178
11,261
12,365 12,951 12,870
52%
35%
44%
35% 22%
-11%
27%
-1%
11% 10% 5%
-1%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f
Earnings, USD mn (LHS) Earnings Growth (RHS)
Barwa Real estate’s profit rose
by 4X till September 2015 which
has helped in boosting the
sector’s revenue as a whole.
On a standalone P/E basis,
Qatar, with a ratio of 11.1x of
the earnings, appears to trade
at lower valuation level
compared to peers such as KSA
& Kuwait.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 11
Valuation Parameters Summary
P/E (TTM) KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
2010 21.3 16.8 11.0 20.3 14.0 11.4
2011 18.3 15.0 9.4 15.9 14.7 10.7
2012 18.2 18.7 9.3 16.6 13.0 12.4
2013 17.1 18.3 15.0 15.2 11.3 10.6
2014 12.8 15.4 12.0 15.4 10.3 11.0
2015 13.0 14.4 10.4 11.1 9.9 9.1
P/B KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
2010 3.0 1.5 0.9 3.0 2.2 1.3
2011 2.8 1.5 na 2.5 2.2 1.2
2012 2.6 1.5 0.9 2.3 1.9 1.2
2013 2.4 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.1
2014 1.8 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.1
2015 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.9
Dividend Yld (TTM)
KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
2010 2.1 4.5 3.1 2.3 3.8 3.7
2011 2.5 3.2 4.8 2.7 3.7 3.8
2012 2.6 2.8 3.9 3.2 4.3 3.0
2013 3.0 3.5 2.3 3.7 4.3 4.2
2014 3.7 3.7 2.9 3.7 5.0 8.1
2015 4.2 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.9 5.1
Qualitative Assessment
Neutral Neutral Positive Positive Positive Positive
Source: Zawya, Markaz research; Data as of Dec 13, 2015
3. Economic Parameters
Based on our analysis, we have maintained a neutral view on Qatar due to tepid
growth expectations.
i. Real GDP Growth Forecast
Real GDP growth in Qatar is expected to be only slightly better in 2016, on the
back of increased infrastructure spending that the government has planned as
part of its bid for the 2022 Football World Cup. Qatar has earmarked a total of
$229 Bn to be spent on the projects, which includes construction of a new city, a
rail network and a mega reservoirs project. While the prices of oil and gas have
come down rapidly in the past year, the government of Qatar has committed to
keep up with the spending on the economy. Qatar is also cutting down on its
budget spending to reflect the huge drop in oil prices. Qatar has forecast a
budget deficit of more than $12 billion in 2016, citing a sharp drop in oil and gas
prices. The revenues of the country are expected to fall to $42.85Bn in 2016
from $61 Bn that it had earned in 2015. Meanwhile the expenditure is expected
to be $54 Bn (7% less than last year’s expenses). The non-hydrocarbon sector is
the highest among the GCC countries. The non-hydrocarbon will continue to
expand, but the rate of growth will subdue as the infra spending peaks,
construction activity levels off and the inflow of migrant workers decline.
Financial, real estate, transport and communication, and business services are all
expected to benefit from the property development and infrastructure projects.
Qatar has earmarked a total of
$229 Bn to be spent on the
projects, which includes
construction of a new city, a rail
network and a mega reservoirs
project.
Qatar has forecast a budget
deficit of more than $12 billion
in 2016, citing a sharp drop in
oil and gas prices.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 12
Trade and hospitality are also expected to grow robustly owing to conference
activities and to growth in tourist arrivals, particularly from the region. Moderation
of population growth is expected to slow service sector expansion in 201611.
Real GDP growth rates (%)
Real GDP Growth (in %) KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
Real GDP Growth (2008-2012 Avg) 6.1 2.3 2.3 13.5 5.8 3.8
Real GDP Growth (2013) 2.7 0.8 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.3
Real GDP Growth (2014) 3.5 0.1 4.6 4.0 2.9 4.5
Real GDP Growth (2015 e) 3.4 1.2 3.0 4.7 4.4 3.4
Real GDP Growth (2016 f) 2.2 2.5 3.1 4.9 2.8 3.2
Source: IMF
Real Oil GDP Growth Rates (in %)
Real Oil Growth KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
Real GDP Growth (2008-2012 Avg) 2.8 3.2 0.8 12.7 4.9 -1.0
Real GDP Growth (2013) -1.6 -0.7 4.8 0.2 2.4 15.3
Real GDP Growth (2014) 0.7 0.5 1.5 -2.2 0.2 3.0
Real GDP Growth (2015 e) 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.7 4.2 1.1
Real GDP Growth (2016 f) 1.1 0.1 1.1 1.3 2.8 1.1
Source: IIF
Real Non-Oil GDP Growth Rates (in %)
Real Non-Oil Growth KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
Real GDP Growth (2008-2012 Avg) % 7.7 -1.9 2.1 13.7 5.1 5.1
Real GDP Growth (2013) % 6.3 4.8 5.4 11.0 5.2 3.1
Real GDP Growth (2014) % 5.8 3.8 5.2 12.0 7.2 4.9
Real GDP Growth (2015e) % 4.9 4.0 4.9 9.9 4.8 4.0
Real GDP Growth (2016 f) % 3.8 4.5 5.0 9.3 4.6 3.5
Source: IIF
ii. Inflation
Consumer price inflation was quite muted at 1.6% during 2015. Moderation of
rental inflation and subdued import prices are expected to keep inflation
hovering around 2% mark. For 2016, the inflation is expected to nudge up owing
to factors such as the increasing global commodity prices and a stable US Dollar.
Inflation rate (%)
Inflation (Annual Change) KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
Inflation (2008-2012 Avg) 4.1 4.7 3.2 2.3 5.3 2.1
Inflation (2013) 3.5 2.7 1.1 3.1 1.2 3.3
Inflation (2014) 2.7 2.9 2.3 3.0 1.0 2.7
Inflation (2015 e) 2.1 3.3 3.7 1.6 0.4 2.0
Inflation (2016 f) 2.3 3.3 3.0 2.3 2.0 2.1
Source: IMF
11 Qatar Economic Outlook 2015–2017 Update
Trade and hospitality are
also expected to grow
robustly owing to
conference activities and
to growth in tourist
arrivals, particularly from
the region.
Consumer price inflation
was quite muted at 1.6%
during 2015. Moderation
of rental inflation and
subdued import prices are
expected to keep inflation
hovering around 2%
mark.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 13
iii. Fiscal Balance
With the oil revenues expected to fall given the long-term outlook for oil prices,
the fiscal surplus is expected to turn into fiscal deficit in 2016. Risks that Qatar is
exposed to are international in nature and hence any positive upward
momentum in oil prices would help them in shoring up their external and fiscal
balances. Qatar has got a moratorium in place for new oil & gas projects in its
country and as a result its oil production is set to decline. Furthermore, margins
on liquefied natural gas are likely to face pressures from new sources of supply
and increased competition worldwide. Depressed oil prices also increases the risk
of funding gap for new projects in the industry. Returns from Qatar’s
investments in other infrastructure assets is therefore of paramount importance
in order to keep the fiscal balance from slipping further.
Fiscal Balance as % of GDP
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
Fiscal Balance (2008-2012 Avg) 10.2 28.2 7.0 11.4 7.4 -2.4
Fiscal Balance (2013) 5.8 34.0 10.4 20.7 3.2 -4.3
Fiscal Balance (2014) -3.4 26.3 5.0 14.7 -1.5 -5.7
Fiscal Balance (2015 e) -21.6 1.3 -5.5 4.5 -17.7 -14.2
Fiscal Balance (2016 f) -19.4 0.1 -4.0 -1.5 -20.0 -13.9
Source: IMF; Note: Fiscal balance is computed as difference between general
government revenue streams (oil revenues, taxes, grants receivable and others) and
general government expenditures (capital expense, social benefits, governmental
wages and other current expenses)
iv. Current Account Balance
Current account balance is expected to be negative in 2016 owing to reducing
hydrocarbon export revenues, rising imports (driven by domestic demand) and
higher outward remittances by foreign nationals working in Qatar. Capital-
equipment imports are expected to slow down as needs are scaled down but
given the demand for materials and by consumption demand of a larger
population the CAB should be well-supported.
Current Account Balance as % of GDP
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) KSA Kuwait UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain
Current Account Balance (2008-2012 Avg) 17.8 37.5 9.7 22.4 8.0 6.5
Current Account Balance (2013) 18.2 41.2 18.4 30.9 6.6 7.8
Current Account Balance (2014) 10.3 31.0 13.7 26.1 2.0 3.3
Current Account Balance (2015 e) -3.5 9.3 2.9 5.0 -16.9 -4.8
Current Account Balance (2016 f) -4.7 7.0 3.1 -4.5 -24.3 -5.9
Source: IMF; Note: Current account balance calculated as the sum of trade balance and
the balance on services, income and transfers.
Qatar has got a moratorium in
place for new oil & gas projects
in its country and as a result its
oil production is set to decline.
Current account balance is
expected to be negative in
2016 owing to reducing
hydrocarbon export revenues,
rising imports and higher
outward remittances by foreign
nationals working in Qatar.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 14
Economic Parameters Summary
Overall Scores Qatar
Economic Growth Positive
Inflation Positive
Fiscal Balance Neutral
Current Account Balance Negative
Qualitative assessment Neutral
Source: IMF, Markaz
4. Market Liquidity
Aggregate value traded of equities in Qatar reached a value of USD 23bn in
2015. This represents a 56% lower value from the value traded registered in the
prior year.
Value traded (in USD Mn) and Y-o-Y change (in %), 2005-2016
Source: Zawya; Data as of Dec 13, 2015
Value traded in Qatar markets plunged by 56% Y-o-Y in 2015 after its 34% and
154% increase in 2013 and 2014 mainly due to the country entering the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index. The declining stock prices owing to sell-off spree from
the institutional investor and fund managers was the major reason for the
decline in value traded in Qatar. Global factors were also not favorable during
2015 resulting in a wide-spread sell-off in the region post the Chinese stock
market crash in June.
345%
-29%
48% 61%
-47% -28%
22%
-31%
34%
154%
-56%
38%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
Value Traded (USD bn) Growth
Value traded in Qatar
markets plunged by 56% Y-
o-Y in 2015 after its 34%
and 154% increase in 2013
and 2014 mainly due to the
country entering the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index.
The declining stock prices
owing to sell-off spree from
the institutional investor and
fund managers was the
major reason for the decline
in value traded in Qatar.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 15
Stock Market Turnover Ratio (Value traded/market cap)
Source: Zawya, Markaz Research; Data as of Dec 13, 2015
MSCI upgraded Qatar to emerging market last year and it was also included in
the MSCI emerging market index last year. Unfortunately this upgrade alone has
not been sufficient enough to increase the turnover in the Qatar market. The
initial euphoria surrounding the inclusion at the beginning of 2015 faded away as
poor investor sentiment coupled with the drop in oil price, regional instability and
turmoil in Chinese equities forced international investors to review their
strategies. We expect 2016 to be much better on account of the positive steps
taken by the Qatar stock exchange on issues such as stock lending and short
selling.
Qatar Market Expectation 2016
Factors Markaz View
Earnings Growth Potential Neutral
Valuation Attraction Positive
Economic Factors Neutral
Market Liquidity Negative
2016 Market Expectation Neutral
Source: Markaz Research
Corporate earnings have risen in Qatar since the financial crisis owing to rising oil
& gas prices prior to first half of 2014. While the economic growth remains
positive, the fall in oil prices has increased the downside risks for the Qatari
economy. The stock market is fairly valued with a lower P/E ratio and higher
dividend yield compared to some of its peers. While the valuation is positive
other factors that complement the growth are expected to remain neutral or slip
into negative territory. Hence, on an overall basis, our expectations for Qatari
markets remain neutral in the coming year.
33% 33% 31%
63%
29%
15% 18%
12% 13%
29%
13%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
Unfortunately this upgrade
alone has not been sufficient
enough to increase the
turnover in the Qatar
market.
While the economic growth
remains positive, the fall in
oil prices has increased the
downside risks for the Qatari
economy.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 16
What Next for Qatar Market after MSCI Upgrade
Possible steps to be taken in Qatar Capital Markets
Source: Markaz Research
Qatar was upgraded to emerging market status during June 2013 along with
UAE. Both the countries were under the review for five years before they
received the final approval. The “emerging” designation is a major sign of
approval from institutional investors for the countries' stock markets. MSCI
claimed that the positive developments in the countries’ infrastructure were the
reasons behind the upgrade of both these markets.
In the couple of months following the upgrade Qatar stock index witnessed
increased activity and its index gained by 8% before falling. This upgrade has
brought in huge fund inflows into the country’s stock market; the upgrade has
brought in $2bn in foreign funds to the exchange12. In addition to the MSCI
upgrade, Qatar has also been upgraded recently by FTSE to secondary emerging
market status which is expected to bring in additional foreign investment into the
stock market13. Despite the upgrades Qatar’s current standing leaves a lot of
scope of improvement in areas such as – Foreign ownership limits/ levels,
Clearing and settlement, transferability of stocks and short selling.
MSCI’s stance for Qatar as of June, 2015 would help us to analyse the potential
developments in the Qatar capital market that are required and might happen in
2016.
12 July 2015, Oxford Business Group, Statement of exchange CEO Al Mansoori 13 Sep 2015 – To Qatar to be added in the list in two phases – Sep 2016 and March 2017
Increased Market Activity and Liquidity
Transferability and
Off- Exchange
transaction
Expanding the scope of stock lending
Equal rights to foreign
investors
Better Corporate
Governance
Increased Foreign
Ownership
The “emerging” designation
is a major sign of approval
from institutional investors
for the countries' stock
markets.
In the couple of months
following the upgrade Qatar
stock index witnessed
increased activity and its
index gained by 8% before
falling.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 17
Current Stance of MSCI
Parameters Status
Classification as of June, 2015 Standalone
Openness to foreign ownership
- Investor qualification requirement
- Foreign ownership limit (FOL) level
- Foreign room level
- Equal rights to foreign investors
++
-/?
-/?
+
Ease of capital inflows/outflows
- Capital flow restriction level
- Foreign exchange market liberalization level
++
++
Efficiency of operational framework
Market Entry
- Investor registration, account setup
Market Organization
- Market Regulations
- Competitive landscape
- Information flow
Market Infrastructure
- Clearing & Settlement
- Custody
- Registry/Depository
- Trading
- Transferability
- Stock lending
- Short Selling
+
++
++
++
-/?
+
++
++
-/?
+
-/?
Stability of institutional framework +
++ No issues; + no major issues, improvements possible;
-/? improvements needed/extent to be assessed. Source: MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review, June 2015
MSCI has indicated that Qatar market have to liberalize their foreign ownership
limit which is currently fixed at maximum 49% in a company’s stock. Qatar
increased the foreign ownership from the previous limit of 25% and this proposal
was ratified during August 2015. Technical reforms such as increasing foreign
ownership can help in bringing in foreign investors. During the 2nd quarter of
2015, six companies increased their non- Qatari ownership - Qatar General
Insurance & Reinsurance Company, Qatar Insurance Company, the Commercial
Bank of Qatar and Doha Bank, Ezdan Holding and Aamal14. We can expect this
trend to continue in 2016 as well as more companies try to bring in foreign
investors on board. Increasing the ownership levels would also help bringing in
international best practices in areas such as corporate governance, shareholder
rights etc.
Foreign room level, a new adjustment factor introduced by MSCI, accounts the
proportion of investable stocks in a market to foreign investors. For equity
market to function to its fullest extent there has to be robust investor protection
14 Qatar Central Securities Depository (QCSD)
MSCI has indicated that
Qatar market have to
liberalize their foreign
ownership limit which is
currently fixed at maximum
49% in a company’s stock.
Foreign room level, a new
adjustment factor introduced
by MSCI, accounts the
proportion of investable
stocks in a market to foreign
investors.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 18
norms and equitable treatment towards all class and category of investors. Qatar
has taken its 1st step in achieving this goal by extending the rights of Qatari
nationals to other GCC nationals with regard to shareholding of listed Qatari
companies. This decision is part of a wider programme to expand the country’s
financial market’s base. Extending similar rights to foreigners would help in
cementing Qatar as a promising emerging market investment.
Market liquidity is a direct function of the number of active participants in the
market that are willing to buy and sell the stock and the pace at which a stock
can be sold without affecting the price too much. For this to happen there has to
be wide spread awareness about investing and trading in stock market. Market
Making in Qatar has been given a much needed boost through liquidity providers
through recent regulations.
Liquidity Provider - Exchange Agreement – It is an agreement between the
licensed LP and the Exchange, whereby the LP obtains an incentive, through
discounts on exchange transaction fees, to make markets in selected stocks. The
agreement stipulates the activity levels expected of the LP in each selected
stock, with thresholds on number or value of shares bid and offered, the amount
of time during the trading day that these bid and offers are maintained and the
maximum spread between each bid and offer. If the LP meets all of these
stipulations for a given stock, a discount on the transaction fees is accrued and
the total discount for each month is then paid to the LP by the Exchange.
Liquidity Provider – Specific Issuer - In this arrangement, the LP obtains an
incentive from the issuer for supporting liquidity in the issuer’s stock. Once again,
there are specific stipulations as to spread, number or value of shares and time
in the market applied to ensure that the LP provides the required liquidity. The
specific terms are agreed between the LP and the issuer.
In either case, a license must be granted by the regulator, the QFMA, and a copy
of the agreement and an appropriate application needs to be lodged with them.
Currently there are only two companies that provide LPs – The Group and
Commercial Bank Investment Services (CBIS). Importance of LPs become more
imperative as the Qatar Stock Exchange gears up for the launch of Exchange
Traded Funds (ETFs) and Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
Regulatory structure in Qatar is multi-pronged. Currently Qatar Central bank,
Qatar Financial Market Authority and Qatar Financial Centre regulation are
currently responsible for the regulation of the financial markets. Consolidation of
the regulatory authorities with Qatar Central bank leading the way would bring in
more efficient policies and enforcements. Investors also prefer acting with a
single efficient regulator instead of multiple entities.
It is also anticipated that once Qatar expands down the path of allowing state
owned companies to sell shares to the public over the coming years, foreign
investors will benefit from the increased number of securities available to them in
the secondary market.
It is an agreement between
the licensed LP and the
Exchange, whereby the LP
obtains an incentive, through
discounts on exchange
transaction fees, to make
markets in selected stocks.
Foreign room level, a new
adjustment factor introduced
by MSCI, accounts the
proportion of investable
stocks in a market to foreign
investors.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 20
Appendix: Blue Chip Stocks
Qatar National Bank
Qatar National Bank (QNB) recorded a net profit of QR 3.1 billion in 3Q2015, up 7% YoY and 8% QoQ.
The drivers of the YoY increase in net profit were slightly higher operating income and income from
associates as well as lower provisioning. Net interest margin decreased QoQ, with net interest income up
2% YoY, down 1% QoQ, driven by strong investment income. Lower loan provisioning continued to be a
major driver of net profit growth with QNB registering net recoveries (QR 91 million) during 3Q2015.
Historical Financial Highlights
(AED mn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9m, 2015
Income Statement
Net Interest Income 2,836 3,726 5,675 7,799 9,150 11,560 12,262 9,547
Net Income 3,653 4,202 5,704 7,509 8,339 9,479 10,455 8,721
Balance Sheet
Total Assets 151,974 179,329 223,382 301,955 366,854 443,486 486,357 520,892
Total Liabilities 135,330 159,644 199,145 259,935 319,776 390,658 429,374 461,799
Total Equity 16,643 19,685 24,237 42,021 47,078 52,828 56,983 59,092
Key Ratios
Net Loan Growth, % 51.4 8.7 21.1 47.3 28.9 24.7 9.1 na
Deposits Growth, % 36.4 13.0 37.1 34.9 22.0 17.5 10.3 na
NPL (% loans) 0.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5
LLP (% loans) 0.30 0.27 0.45 0.64 0.48 0.54 0.34 -0.03
Loans/Deposit 87% 84% 74% 81% 86% 91% 90% 89%
Tier 1 Capital Ratio 13.7 13.2 15.3 22.0 21.0 15.6 0.0 14.0
ROA, % 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 na
EV/EBITDA 3.3 2.8 4.8 7.8 6.3 13.1 13.5 9.2
P/E 11.1 10.7 12.5 12.2 11.0 12.7 14.2 10.0
P/B 2.5 2.3 3.0 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.6 1.9
Dividend Yield 5.5% 3.5% 3.8% 2.9% 4.6% 4.1% 3.5% 4.7%
Source: Reuters
Analyst Estimates (Mean) 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
Revenue (AED mn) 16,277 17,637 19,269 22,197
Net Profit (AED mn) 11,330 12,211 13,317 14,759
EPS (AED) 16.20 17.31 18.83 21.36
Book Value/Share (AED) 89.60 99.46 110.27 129.96
RoA, % 2.23 2.18 2.23 2.25
RoE, % 19.27 18.83 18.59 19.20
Source: Reuters
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 21
Ezdan
Ezdan Holding reported a 22.6 percent rise in third-quarter net profit. This climb in the Group’s profits,
despite the economic setback that the regional markets are enduring, can be attributed to the stability of
the Qatari real estate market. Revenues of the company have been helped by the increase in rentals
income (13% YoY) during the 1st 9 month of 2015. One off gains from selling available-for-sale financial
assets increased by 24% till date.
Historical Financial Highlights
(QAR mn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9m 2015
Income Statement
Revenues 388 484 392 738 527 1,117 1,601 1,357
Net Income 1,357 8,686 121 345 275 1,071 1,360 1,222
Balance Sheet
Total Assets 6,921 30,060 31,924 32,887 38,705 41,203 43,393 45,870
Total Liabilities 434 2,776 4,522 5,147 11,142 12,559 13,316 15,635
Total Equity 6,487 27,285 27,403 27,740 27,563 28,644 30,077 30,234
Key Ratios
Current Ratio (in %) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 na
Net Profit Margin (in %)
350.0 1793.0 31.0 46.8 52.3 95.9 85.0 na
Debt/Equity 0.06 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.37 0.42 0.43 0.50
ROE, % 23.4 51.4 0.4 1.3 1.0 3.8 4.6 na
ROA , % 22.4 47.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 2.7 3.2 na
EV/EBITDA 40.8 132.7 343.1 123.9 173.9 75.4 49.9 45.8
P/E 9.1 4.0 666.8 170.4 175.5 42.1 29.1 25.4
P/B 1.9 2.0 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3
Dividend Yield N/A N/A N/A 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 2.7% 2.7%
Source: Reuters
No brokerage covers the Ezdan stock and hence analyst estimates are not available.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 22
Masraf Al Rayan
Masraf Al Rayan, Qatar's second largest bank by market value, reported a 2.2 percent fall in third-quarter
net profit which is broadly in line with analysts' expectations. Net profit for the nine months to Sept. 30
was 1.51 billion riyals, compared with 1.43 billion riyals in the same period a year ago. Financing
activities for the nine-month period reached 59.9 billion riyals, up by 9.2 percent from the same period in
2014. Customer deposits totaled 52.8 billion riyals, a decline of 12 percent over the same period.
Earnings have been propelled in recent years by public spending related to a raft of infrastructure
projects as the government prepares to host the soccer World Cup in 2022.
Historical Financial Highlights
(QAR mn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9m 2015
Income Statement
Net Interest Income 1,078 713 1,134 1,407 1,738 1,977 2,061 1,602
Net Income 917 881 1,211 1,408 1,504 1,702 2,002 1,514
Balance Sheet
Total Assets 16,769 24,124 34,683 55,271 61,628 66,548 80,094 79,539
Total Liabilities 11,075 18,162 27,557 46,767 52,032 56,024 68,742 67,999
Total Equity 5,694 5,962 7,126 8,504 9,596 10,523 11,353 11,541
Key Ratios
Net Loan Growth, % 61.2 49.9 37.2 29.9 16.3 0.1 34.3 na
Deposits Growth, % 120.5 63.6 51.5 71.2 11.1 7.2 21.8 na
Nonperforming loans (% loans) 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Loan loss provision (% loans) 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.21 -0.08 -0.02 0.02 0.00
Loans/Deposit 134% 123% 111% 84% 88% 83% 91% 94%
Tier 1 Capital Ratio 31.9 24.1 19.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.4 NULL
ROA, % 6.8 4.3 4.1 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.8 na
EV/EBITDA 8.3 10.5 10.4 13.0 10.7 11.5 14.8 11.7
P/E 9.0 11.5 11.8 14.8 12.4 13.8 16.6 13.0
P/B 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.3
Dividend Yield 7.5% N/A N/A 1.8% 4.0% 4.8% 4.0% 4.8%
Source: Reuters
Analyst Estimates (Mean) 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
Revenue (AED mn) 2,563 2,743 2,931 3,583
Net Profit (AED mn) 1,992 2,076 2,133 2,423
EPS (AED) 2.71 2.77 2.84 3.09
Book Value/Share (AED) 15.92 17.11 18.17 22.68
RoA, % 2.35 2.30 2.20 2.10
RoE, % 18.90 18.30 18.50 NULL
Source: Reuters
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 23
Industries Qatar
Industries Qatar (IQ) reported a 3Q2015 net income of QAR 1.40 billion (-25% YoY, -4% QoQ). The
petrochemicals segment contributed 56% of IQ’s 3Q2015 bottom line compared with a contribution of
24% and 20% from the fertilizers and steel segments, respectively. The performance was better than
expectations across all segments, primarily supported by higher-than-expected sales volumes. The
company reported that sales volumes grew by over 12% YoY while we were expecting sales volumes to
increase 1.5%.The steel segment revenue declined 20% QoQ to QAR 1.22 billion, and was in line with
analyst expectation of QAR 1.21 billion. Better inventory management helped in supporting higher
margins for the quarter.
Historical Financial Highlights
(QAR mn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9m 2015
Income Statement Revenues 14,743 9,857 12,331 16,549 6,154 5,823 5,970 4,107
Net Income 7,276 4,959 5,478 7,931 8,441 8,012 6,342 3,831
Balance Sheet Total Assets 27,450 27,432 31,908 36,778 32,887 36,778 36,556 35,304
Total Liabilities 9,207 8,376 10,257 10,542 2,553 3,001 2,971 2,135
Total Equity 18,243 19,056 21,651 26,237 30,334 33,777 33,585 33,169
Key Ratios
Current Ratio (in %) 2.8 4.7 2.9 3.2 9.7 10.8 4.5 na
Net Profit Margin (in %)
49.3 50.3 44.4 47.9 141.8 137.5 106.2 na
Debt/Equity 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.26 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04
ROE, % 45.6 26.6 26.9 33.1 30.9 25.0 18.8 na
ROA , % 30.6 18.1 18.5 23.1 25.1 23.0 17.3 na
EV/EBITDA 7.2 16.0 13.5 8.5 39.3 52.4 64.4 45.7
P/E 7.6 12.7 13.9 9.2 9.8 12.8 16.0 11.5
P/B 3.0 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.0 1.9
Dividend Yield 8.0% 4.4% 4.0% 5.6% 5.0% 6.5% 4.2% 6.7%
Source: Reuters
Analyst Estimates (Mean) 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
Revenue (AED mn) 5,384 5,053 4,919 5,247
EBITDA (AED mn) 1,134 1,111 1,168 1,200
Net Profit (AED mn) 4,916 5,158 5,122 5,515
CapEx (AED mn) 460 479 304 500
EPS (AED) 8.16 8.53 8.28 9.12
Book Value/Share (AED) 55.18 56.38 57.06 NULL
RoA, % 15.07 16.67 14.40 NULL
RoE, % 14.87 14.81 14.71 NULL
Source: Reuters
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 24
Qatar Islamic Bank
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB), the largest sharia-compliant lender by assets, reported a 27 percent jump in
third-quarter net profit. QIB made a nine-month net profit of 1.41 billion riyals, up from 1.13 billion riyals
a year earlier. Nine-month income from financing and investing activities was 2.8 billion riyals, up 24
percent year-on-year. The bank's net fee and commission income over the same period was 345 million
riyals, 19 percent higher than a year ago.
Historical Financial highlights
(QAR mn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9m 2015
Income Statement
Net Interest Income 939 1,306 1,305 1,366 1,620 1,381 1,706 1,526
Net Income 1,643 1,322 1,262 1,365 1,241 1,335 1,601 1,410
Balance Sheet
Total Assets 33,543 39,273 51,877 58,275 73,192 77,354 96,106 1,22,707
Total Liabilities 26,400 30,268 42,826 47,072 61,718 65,495 83,628 1,07,813
Total Equity 7,143 9,005 9,052 11,202 11,474 11,860 12,478 14,895
Key Ratios
Net Loan Growth, % 61.5 20.1 29.5 0.8 45.8 21.6 30.4 na
Deposits Growth, % 60.0 14.9 33.5 6.2 29.9 -2.6 28.1 na
Nonperforming loans (% loans) 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 9.3 4.4 0.6
Loan loss provision (% loans) -0.31 0.15 0.19 0.04 0.52 0.20 0.15 0.03
Loans/Deposit 75% 78% 76% 72% 81% 101% 102% 91%
Tier 1 Capital Ratio 16.4 17.3 17.4 0.0 14.6 15.7 13.9 NULL
ROA, % 6.2 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 na
EV/EBITDA 5.1 4.3 4.6 10.4 8.0 13.7 15.8 11.7
P/E 9.8 12.1 13.7 14.3 13.8 12.2 15.1 14.1
P/B 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.8
Dividend Yield 8.5% 7.7% 6.2% 5.3% 5.0% 5.8% 4.2% 3.8%
Sources: Reuters
Analyst Estimates (Mean) 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
Revenue (QAR mn) 3,324 3,925 4,356 6,154
Net Profit (QAR mn) 1,838 2,087 2,369 2,932
EPS (QAR) 7.78 8.83 10.03 13.33
Book Value/Share (QAR) 55.29 59.59 64.81 73.36
RoA, % 1.65 1.45 1.55 1.50
RoE, % 15.45 16.60 17.00 NULL
Source: Reuters
Qatar Large Cap
Companies Sector M. Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close 2015 P/E P/B Beta
Div. Yield
ADTV
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 25
Qatar National Bank SAQ Financials 33,624 175 -18% 11.0 2.1 0.71 4.3 High
Industries Qatar QSC Industrials 18,457 111.1 -34% 12.3 2.0 1.00 6.3 High
Ezdan Holding Group QSC Financials 11,581 15.9 7% 26.9 1.4 1.48 2.5 High
Masraf Al Rayan QSC Financials 7,743 37.6 -15% 13.5 2.4 1.26 4.7 High
Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ Financials 6,923 106.7 4% 13.4 1.7 1.13 4.0 High
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co QSC
Basic Materials 6,692 19.4 -34% 20.2 1.8 na 5.7 High
Ooredoo QSC Telecommunications
Services 6,597 75 -39% 13.2 1.1 1.02 5.3 High
Qatar Electricity and Water Co QSC
Utilities 6,536 216.4 15% 15.9 3.4 0.85 3.5 High
Barwa Real Estate Co QSC Financials 4,274 40 -5% 2.6 0.9 1.39 5.5 High
Qatar Insurance Co SAQ Financials 4,157 82 4% 16.0 2.7 0.79 2.7 High
Source: Reuters
Qatar Mid-Cap
Companies Sector M. Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close 2015 P/E P/B Beta
Div. Yield
ADTV
Gulf Warehousing Co QSC Industrials 929 56.9 11% 17.1 3.2 0.87 2.4 High
Medicare Group QSC Healthcare 922 119.3 2% 17.1 3.7 1.36 4.2 High
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co QSC
Industrials 520 39.85 -8% 13.0 1.3 0.49 7.5 High
Zad Holding Co SAQ Consumer Non-
Cyclicals 502 84.8 1% 9.8 1.4 0.42 4.7 Average
Source: Reuters
Qatar Small Cap
Companies Sector M. Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close 2015 P/E P/B Beta
Div. Yield
ADTV
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development QSC
Financials 409 14.2 -22% 8.6 1.1 1.23 2.0 High
Salam International Investment QSC
Industrials 371 11.82 -25% 17.6 0.8 0.66 5.1 High
Qatar Islamic Insurance Co QSC
Financials 297 72 -9% 13.1 3.2 0.89 5.6 High
Doha Insurance Co QSC Financials 288 21 -28% 15.5 1.0 0.71 4.8 Low
Widam Food Co QSC Consumer Non-
Cyclicals 261 52.8 -13% 14.1 3.7 0.92 4.7 High
Al Khaleej Takaful Group QSC Financials 214 30.5 -31% 15.1 1.3 0.79 4.3 High
Alijarah Holding Co QSC Industrials 192 14.1 -30% nm 0.6 0.79 6.0 High
Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding Co QSC
Financials 144 18.49 -45% nm 1.9 1.13 0.0 High
Islamic Holding Group QSC Financials 130 78.7 -25% 38.0 6.1 0.32 3.2 High
Qatar Oman Investment Co QSC
Industrials 106 12.3 -20% 15.7 1.1 0.95 6.5 High
Source: Reuters
Qatar High Dividend Yield Stocks
Companies Sector Category M. Cap
(USD mn) Last
Close 2015 P/E P/B Beta
Div. Yield
ADTV
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 26
Gulf International Services QSC Industrials
2,628 Large Cap 51.5 -47% 6.6 2.4 1.30 10.7 High
Doha Bank QSC Financials
3,157 Large Cap 44.5 -22% 9.3 0.9 0.87 9.0 High
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co QSC
Industrials
520 Mid Cap 39.85 -8% 13.0 1.3 0.49 7.5 High
Commercial Bank QSC Financials
4,117 Large Cap 45.9 -26% 9.0 0.9 0.77 6.9 High
Aamal Co QSC Industrials
2,420 Large Cap 13.99 -3% 14.1 1.2 0.94 6.8 High
Qatar Oman Investment Co QSC
Industrials
106 Small Cap 12.3 -20% 15.7 1.1 0.95 6.5 High
Industries Qatar QSC Industrials
18,457 Large Cap 111.1 -34% 12.3 2.0 1.00 6.3 High
Mannai Corporation QSC Industrials
1,194 Large Cap 95.3 -13% 8.2 1.9 0.54 6.3 High
Qatar International Islamic Bank QSC
Financials
2,673 Large Cap 64.3 -21% 11.4 1.8 1.07 6.2 High
Qatar Fuel QSC Energy
3,421 Large Cap 147.5 -28% 10.7 1.9 0.60 6.1 High
Source: Reuters
Qatar High Beta Stocks
Companies Sector Category M. Cap (USD
mn) Last
Close 2015 P/E P/B Beta ADTV
Ezdan Holding Group QSC Financials 11,581 Large Cap 15.9 7% 26.9 1.4 1.48 High
Barwa Real Estate Co QSC Financials 4,274 Large Cap 40 -5% 2.6 0.9 1.39 High
Medicare Group QSC Healthcare
922 Mid Cap 119.3 2% 17.1 3.7 1.36 High
Vodafone Qatar QSC Telecommunications
Services 2,948 Large Cap 12.7 -23% nm 2.1 1.36 High
Gulf International Services QSC Industrials 2,628 Large Cap 51.5 -47% 6.6 2.4 1.30 High
Masraf Al Rayan QSC Financials 7,743 Large Cap 37.6 -15% 13.5 2.4 1.26 High
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development QSC
Financials
409 Small Cap 14.2 -22% 8.6 1.1 1.23 High
Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding Co QSC
Financials
144 Small Cap 18.49 -45% nm 1.9 1.13 High
Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ Financials 6,923 Large Cap 106.7 4% 13.4 1.7 1.13 High
Qatar International Islamic Bank QSC
Financials 2,673 Large Cap 64.3 -21% 11.4 1.8 1.07 High
Source: Reuters
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 27
Asset Classes: Risk-Return Profile (2015)
Source: Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
Asset Classes: Risk-Return Profile (2010 - 2015)
Source: Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
IPE Brent
MSCI EM S&P GCC KSA
Kuwait Price Idx Qatar
Oman
Bahrain Dubai
Abu Dhabi
KWT Wt Idx
(40)
(35)
(30)
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
- 10 20 30 40 502015 Returns
(%)
2015 Risk (%)
IPE Brent
MSCI EM
S&P GCC KSA
Kuwait Price Idx
Qatar
Oman Bahrain
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
KWT Wt Idx
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Annualized Returns, %
(2011-2015)
Annualized Risk (%) (2011-2015)
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 28
PE Band Charts
Figure: PE Band of QSI Index
Source: Reuters
Monthly Index Returns
Qatar Index
Abu Dhabi
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Value of $1 Invested in 2009 Jan
2009 -
24% -
16% 10% 15% 25% -7% 3% 6% 4% -4% 1%
-3% 1% 1.01
2010 -6% 5% 9% 1% -
10% 2% 2% 3% 6% 1% 4%
7% 25% 1.26
2011 1% -9% 7% 1% -2% 0% 0% -1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1.27
2012 -2% 2% 1% -1% -3% -3% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% 0% -5% 1.21
2013 4% -2% 1% 1% 6% 0% 5% -1% 0% 2% 5% 0% 24% 1.51
2014 7% 6% -1% 9% 8% -
16% 12% 6% 1% -2% -5%
-4% 18% 1.78
2015 -3% 5% -6% 4% -1% 1% -3% -2% -1% 1% -
13% 3% -
15% 1.51
Source: Reuters Eikon
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000N
ov-1
1
Jan-1
2
Mar-
12
May-1
2
Jul-12
Sep-1
2
Nov-1
2
Jan-1
3
Mar-
13
May-1
3
Jul-13
Sep-1
3
Nov-1
3
Jan-1
4
Mar-
14
May-1
4
Jul-14
Sep-1
4
Nov-1
4
Jan-1
5
Mar-
15
May-1
5
Jul-15
Sep-1
5
Nov-1
5
QSI Index 10x 15x 20x 30x
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 29
Qatar Stock List
Companies M. Cap (USD mn)
Category Last
Close 2015 P/E P/B Beta
Div. Yield
ADTV
Qatar Banks
Al Khalij Commercial Bank QSC
1,776
Large Cap 17.97 -19% 10.4 1.1 0.59 5.6 High
Alijarah Holding Co QSC
192 Small Cap 14.1 -30% nm 0.6 0.79 6.0 High
Commercial Bank QSC
4,117 Large Cap 45.9 -26% 9.0 0.9 0.77 6.9 High
Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding Co QSC
144
Small Cap 18.49 -45% nm 1.9 1.13 0.0 High
Doha Bank QSC
3,157 Large Cap 44.5 -22% 9.3 0.9 0.87 9.0 High
Islamic Holding Group QSC
130
Small Cap 78.7 -25% 38.0 6.1 0.32 3.2 High
Masraf Al Rayan QSC
7,743 Large Cap 37.6 -15% 13.5 2.4 1.26 4.7 High
Qatar National Bank SAQ
33,624
Large Cap 175 -18% 11.0 2.1 0.71 4.3 High
Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ
6,923 Large Cap 106.7 4% 13.4 1.7 1.13 4.0 High
Qatar International Islamic Bank QSC
2,673
Large Cap 64.3 -21% 11.4 1.8 1.07 6.2 High
Qatar Oman Investment Co QSC
106
Small Cap 12.3 -20% 15.7 1.1 0.95 6.5 High
Qatar Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co QSC
4,274
Large Cap 40 -5% 2.6 0.9 1.39 5.5 High
Ezdan Holding Group QSC
11,581
Large Cap 15.9 7% 26.9 1.4 1.48 2.5 High
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development QSC
409
Small Cap 14.2 -22% 8.6 1.1 1.23 2.0 High
United Development Co PSC
2,017
Large Cap 20.75 -12% 11.1 0.7 0.99 6.0 High
Qatar Industry
Aamal Co QSC
2,420 Large Cap 13.99 -3% 14.1 1.2 0.94 6.8 High
Gulf International Services QSC
2,628
Large Cap 51.5 -47% 6.6 2.4 1.30 10.7 High
Industries Qatar QSC
18,457 Large Cap 111.1 -34% 12.3 2.0 1.00 6.3 High
Mannai Corporation QSC
1,194 Large Cap 95.3 -13% 8.2 1.9 0.54 6.3 High
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co QSC
6,692
Large Cap 19.4 -34% 20.2 1.8 na 5.7 High
Qatar Electricity and Water Co QSC
6,536
Large Cap 216.4 15% 15.9 3.4 0.85 3.5 High
Qatari Investors Group QSC
1,287
Large Cap 37.7 -9% 19.6 2.0 1.06 2.0 High
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co QSC
520
Mid Cap 39.85 -8% 13.0 1.3 0.49 7.5 High
Qatar National Cement Co QSC
1,513
Large Cap 102 -15% 12.3 2.0 0.56 3.6 High
Qatar Consumer Goods
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co QSC
1,208
Large Cap 220 10% 21.7 3.3 0.92 4.1 High
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 30
Medicare Group QSC
922 Mid Cap 119.3 2% 17.1 3.7 1.36 4.2 High
Qatar Cinema and Film Distribution Co QSC
59
Small Cap 34 -15% 15.7 1.5 0.61 2.7 Low
Qatari German Company for Medical Devices QSC
44
Small Cap 13.72 35% nm 1.0 0.67 0.0 High
Salam International Investment QSC
371
Small Cap 11.82 -25% 17.6 0.8 0.66 5.1 High
Widam Food Co QSC
261 Small Cap 52.8 -13% 14.1 3.7 0.92 4.7 High
Qatar Fuel QSC
3,421 Large Cap 147.5 -28% 10.7 1.9 0.60 6.1 High
Zad Holding Co SAQ
502 Mid Cap 84.8 1% 9.8 1.4 0.42 4.7
Average
Qatar Transport
Gulf Warehousing Co QSC
929
Mid Cap 56.9 11% 17.1 3.2 0.87 2.4 High
Qatar Navigation QSC
2,987 Large Cap 95 -5% 9.1 0.8 0.74 5.8 High
Qatar Gas Transport Co Ltd
3,552
Large Cap 23.35 1% 13.5 3.5 0.73 5.1 High
Qatar Telecom
Ooredoo QSC
6,597 Large Cap 75 -39% 13.2 1.1 1.02 5.3 High
Vodafone Qatar QSC
2,948 Large Cap 12.7 -23% nm 2.1 1.36 1.7 High
Qatar Insurance
Al Khaleej Takaful Group QSC
214
Small Cap 30.5 -31% 15.1 1.3 0.79 4.3 High
Doha Insurance Co QSC
288 Small Cap 21 -28% 15.5 1.0 0.71 4.8 Low
Qatar Islamic Insurance Co QSC
297
Small Cap 72 -9% 13.1 3.2 0.89 5.6 High
Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Co SAQ
1,116
Large Cap 51.1 0% 4.1 0.7 0.22 3.4
Average
Qatar Insurance Co SAQ
4,157 Large Cap 82 4% 16.0 2.7 0.79 2.7 High
MARKAZ RESEARCH
Qatar Stock Market Outlook 2016 - January 2016
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 31
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Marmore MENA Intelligence A ‘Markaz’ Subsidiary
About Marmore Marmore MENA Intelligence Ltd. (Marmore) caters to the growing research and information needs of
organizations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We offer full-fledged research services
covering economies, capital markets, sectors and companies - focused on the MENA region.
We also provide research services to assist our clients in investment decision-making, scanning markets to
identify investment opportunities, conducting ad-hoc researches to understand niche market segments, and
other need-based, bespoke researches.
To know more about us, please visit our website at www.e-marmore.com or write to us on
[email protected] or call us at +965-2224 8280.
A subsidiary www.e-marmore.com
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المركزدراسات وأبحاث 2016يناير – 2016 القطريةالتوقعات المستقبلية للسوق
3المركز المالي الكويتي "المركز" |
2015-2007، األداء )كنسبة مئوية(، قطر الشكل: مؤشر
المصدر: رويترز
34%
-28%
1%
25%
1%
-5%
24%
18%
-15%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
المركزدراسات وأبحاث 2016يناير – 2016 القطريةالتوقعات المستقبلية للسوق
2المركز المالي الكويتي "المركز" |
: نظرة حياديةاالقتصاد
( 2016% في العام 4.9من المتوقع أن يكون النمو في قطر معتدالً )نمو الناتج المحلي اإلجمالي الحقيقي بنسبة
فاق بنسبة د أعلنت في ميزانيتها األخيرة عن خفض اإلنبسبب خفض اإلنفاق المقرر. وكانت الحكومة القطرية ق
ومن المتوقع أن الكبرى. البنية التحتية مشاريع مليار دوالر أمريكي. ولم يمس خفض اإلنفاق 55% إلى 7.28
يؤثر هذا الخفض على الهيئات والمؤسسات التي تمولها الدولة ومنها على سبيل المثال متاحف قطر، ومؤسسة
االقتراض من الخارج ومن أسواق المنطقة لتمويل عجزها يًضا أنها تنوي كما أعلنت الحكومة أ. 1قطر، والجزيرة
بدالً من استخدام احتياطياتها. وبالنظر إلى التكلفة المترتبة على االقتراض، فإننا نتوقع أن تستثمر الحكومة القطرية
د األموال المقترضة في قطاعات تسهم بشكل إيجابي في االقتصاد الوطني. كما أنه من المتوقع أن يتحول رصي
. 2016% خالل العام 3.9الحساب الجاري إلى سلبي، ويتوقع صندوق النقد الدولي أن يبلغ عجز الحساب الجاري
وبناًء على ما ورد أعاله، جاءت نظرتنا إلى االقتصاد القطري حيادية.
سلبيةسيولة السوق: نظرة
23لتصل إلى % 56للسنة بنسبة مع تراجع القيمة المتداولة 2015% في العام 13بلغ معدل دوران األسهم
وال تزال قطر بعيدة جًدا عن معدل مليار دوالر أمريكي في السنة السابقة. 41مليار دوالر أمريكي بعد تسجيلها
قد شهد نشاًطا استثمارًيا كبيًرا 2014وكان العام %. 93الدوران السائد في سوق المملكة العربية السعودية والبالغ
إلى مؤشر مورغان ستانلي كابيتال إنترناشونال لألسواق الناشئة. ولذلك فإن قطرلك السنة إضافة بعد أن تم خالل ت
الوصول إلى الحد األقصى لالستثمارات األجنبية المسموح بها عن التراجع في القيمة المتداولة يمكن أن يكون ناتًجا
جانب ذلك نتج سوء أداء السوق عن التباطؤ وغياب أي فرص أخرى لتوظيف استثمارات جديدة. وإلى في األسهم
سلبي في أوساط المستثمرين. صينية وما تسبب به ذلك من شعور االقتصادي العالمي وتدهور أوضاع األسواق ال
هذه العوامل على إقبال المستثمرين حول العالم، فإننا ال نتوقع حصول تحسن في المتالحقة ل تأثيراتلنظًرا لو
. كذلك لم تصدر أي طروحات أولية لالكتتاب العام في قطر خالل 2016ي األسواق في العام الكميات المتداولة ف
بسبب تدني إقبال المستثمرين. وبناًء عليه، فإن نظرتنا إلى السيولة في البورصة القطرية سلبية. 2015العام
بنظرة إيجابية، وبالتالي فإننا وباإلجمال، فإننا نعتقد أن عامالً واحًدا من أربعة عوامل للسوق القطرية يصنف
نتمسك بنظرتنا الحيادية للسوق القطرية.
1 أخبار الدوحة
كانت الحكومة القطرية قد
أعلنت في ميزانيتها األخيرة عن
% 7.28خفض اإلنفاق بنسبة
.مليار دوالر أمريكي 55إلى
نتج سوء أداء السوق عن
التباطؤ االقتصادي العالمي
األسواق وتدهور أوضاع
صينية وما تسبب به ذلك من ال
سلبي في أوساط شعور
.المستثمرين
"المركز" المركز المالي الكويتي الدراسات واألبحاث
2016 القطريةللسوق التوقعات المستقبلية
حيادية -النظرة
2016التوقعات للعام : 1الجدول
التوقعات الحالية قطر
العوامل االقتصادية حياديةنظرة
جاذبية القيمة السوقية إيجابيةنظرة
احتماالت نمو األرباح حياديةنظرة
سيولة السوق سلبيةنظرة
النظرة العامة للسوق حياديةنظرة
دراسات وأبحاث المركزالمصدر:
كانت نظرتنا إيجابية في تقييمنا للسوق القطرية السنة الماضية. غير أن التراجع المفاجئ والمستمر في أسعار
. وقد أدى التراجع في 2015% خالل العام 15 بلغمؤشر بورصة قطر كبير في النفط أدى إلى تراجع
رباح تبقى على ما هي عليه دون أي تنا لنمو األامستويات المؤشر إلى جعل القيم السوقية جذابة، غير أن توقع
تغيير للسنة المقبلة. وعلى الرغم من تضمين السوق القطرية في مؤشر مورغان ستانلي كابيتال إنترناشونال
لألسواق الناشئة، غير أن الشعور السلبي السائد في أوساط المستثمرين في ظل تراجع أسعار السلع، وعلى
إلى تأثير غير مؤاٍت على قطر في المدى المتوسط. وإلى جانب ذلك، األخص أسعار الغاز، يمكن أن يؤدي
فقد أدت أسعار النفط المنخفضة إلى تحول تام في ميزان االقتصاد العالمي. وأصبح لزاًما على جميع دول
مجلس التعاون الخليجي التعايش مع أسعار النفط المنخفضة والتي باتت تمثل مساًرا مستجًدا. ونتيجة للفترة
لطويلة من التراجع في أسعار النفط، بادرت معظم الهيئات الدولية ومنها على سبيل المثال صندوق النقد ا
% على 4.3% و4.9 لتصبحإلى خفض توقعاتها لنمو االقتصاد القطري ومعهد التمويل الدوليالدولي
يرادات الغاز والصناعات بالنظر إلى تراجع إ 2016التوالي )نمو الناتج المحلي اإلجمالي الحقيقي( للعام
المرتبطة به وخفض اإلنفاق الحكومي.
بناًء على نموذج مؤلف من البورصة القطريةمدى جاذبية رة القادمة، فقد وضعنا تقييًما لأما على صعيد الفت
أربعة عوامل.
إيجابية: نظرة القيمة السوقية
ضعًفا. ويجري التداول حالًيا في 11.1إلى % ليصل اليوم 25انخفض مكرر الربحية للسوق القطرية بنسبة
. كما انحسر اهتمام ةوالكويتي ةبالسوقين السعودي نسبًيا مقارنةً ةمن القيمة السوقية الفعلي بأقل ةالسوق القطري
بسبب سوء األوضاع العالمية. وتمتاز قطر أيًضا بمعدل 2014المستثمرين في السوق في فترة ما بعد العام
شركات االتصاالت وكان مؤشرا .هو األعلى في المنطقة ،%5.1رباح الموزعة بنسبة للعوائد من األ
% على التوالي.21.1-% و33.6-والشركات الصناعية األسوأ تأثًرا، حيث تراجعا بنسبة
حيادية: نظرة األرباح
المتوقع أن تشهد أرباح . كذلك من 2016ح الشركات سلبًيا بنسبة طفيفة في العام اإننا نتوقع أن يكون نمو أرب
الشركات انخفاًضا بسيًطا مع وصول اإلنفاق على البنية التحتية إلى ذروته. ومن جهة أخرى، من المتوقع أن
% على التوالي. 15-% و10-يكون قطاعي العقار والسلع األسوأ تأثًرا وأن تتراجع األرباح فيهما بنسبة
قطاع السلع. وإلى جانب ذلك، شهدت الشركات العقارية في ويمكن أن يؤثر تراجع أسعار النفط والغاز على
2016، ويمكن أن يستمر هذا التصحيح في العام 2015قطر تصحيًحا حاًدا في النصف الثاني من العام
أيًضا. كذلك من غير المتوقع أن ترتفع أرباح قطاع االتصاالت بسبب التراجع في متوسط اإليرادات لكل
ألسواق. ولذلك فإن نظرتنا ألرباح الشركات في قطر حيادية.مستخدم ونتيجة لنضج ا
2016 يناير
وصف الدراسة:
2015في العام القطرية البورصةأداء تحليل وفًقا لنموذج 2016ووضع توقعات مستقبلية للعام
رباعي العوامل.
على المركز وأبحاثيمكن االطالع على دراسات Bloomberg-Type “MRKZ” <Go>
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