koji nakui – agency for natural resources and energy – role of ccs and the future direction of...
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Koji Nakui, Senior Analyst for International coal policy, Coal Division, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), presented on the role of CCS and the future direction of energy policy in Japan at the Global CCS Institute's Japanese Members' Meeting held in Tokyo on 8 June 2012TRANSCRIPT
Energy Policy of Japan
June 2012
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Natural Resources and Fuel Department
Coal Division
Koji Nakui
Contents
1. Review of The Basic Energy Plan ・・・2
2. Near-term Electricity Supply-demand Balance ・・・7
3. Rethinking the Basic Energy Plan ・・・14
4. Renewable Energy ・・・30
5. Energy Resource Development ・・・42
6. Future Energy Policy of Japan ・・・46 1
1. Review of the Basic Energy Plan
2
History of Japan‟s Energy Policy
Japan is poorly endowed with energy resources, which are indispensable to economic and social activities. To meet the
changing economic and energy situation of the time at home and abroad, Japan has reviewed its energy policy in order to
ensure “energy security,” “economic efficiency,” and the “environment.”
Energy security
Energy security
Economic efficiency
Energy security Environment
Economic efficiency
Energy security Environment
Economic efficiency
1973: First oil shock
1970s
1990s
2000s
+
+ +
+ +
[(4) Enhancing resource security (2000s)]
[(1) Responding to the oil crises (1970s-80s)]
1980s
[(2) Promoting regulatory reform (since 1990s)]
[(3) Coping with global warming issues (since 1990s) ]
[(5) Current Basic Energy Plan]
1979: Second oil shock
1997: Kyoto Protocol adopted
2005: Kyoto Protocol came into effect
Enhanced resource security
2002: Basic Act on Energy Policy enacted
2003: Basic Energy Plan established (revised in 2007 and 2010) 3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Japan‟s Energy Supply Structure
3%
12%
19%
21%
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear power Hydro
Coal
Renewables etc.
First
oil shock
* “Renewables etc.” consists of
solar power (0.1%), wind power
(0.1%), geothermal heat (0.1%),
and biomass (2.8%).
3% *
42%
Source: Prepared based on “Comprehensive Energy Statistics” issued by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.”
(in crude oil equivalent kL)
4
5
(trillions of CF)
○U.S. shale gas production in 2009 was about 3 trillion cubic feet (approx. 16% of total gas
production, equivalent to approx. 70 million tons of LNG). The country’s shale gas production is
forecast to continue increasing steadily.
○As shale gas production increases, projected U.S. LNG imports are projected to decline significantly.
Projections for U.S. natural gas production (by type) Projections for U.S. LNG imports
Source: EIA, “Annual Energy Outlook 2011.” Source: EIA, “Annual Energy Outlook 2011.”
7
5
(trillions of CF)
3
1
0
2
4
6
Results Projections Results
As of 2005
Projections
As of 2011
Projections for Shale Gas Production Increases and LNG Imports in the U.S.
6
○Japan’s LNG import prices, which are linked to crude oil import prices (JCC), have been rising in recent years.
○By contrast, natural gas prices (Henry Hub price) in North America have been declining in recent years, reflecting a less
tight supply and demand balance in the North American market due to the increased production of shale gas.
Natural Gas Prices (Japan vs. North America)
LNG import price Crude/raw oil price (JCC) Henry Hub price
Dec-0
8
Jan-0
9
Fe
b-0
9
Mar-
09
Apr-
09
May-0
9
Jun-0
9
Jul-09
Aug-0
9
Sep-0
9
Oct-
09
Nov-0
9
Dec-0
9
Jan-1
0
Fe
b-1
0
Mar-
10
Apr-
10
May-1
0
Jun-1
0
Jul-10
Aug-1
0
Sep-1
0
Oct-
10
Nov-1
0
Dec-1
0
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-
11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
7
2. Near-term Electricity
Supply-demand Balance
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2
1 2
1 3
1 2 3
1 2 3 4
4
1 2
1 2 3 4
1 1
3
2 3
4 5
1 2 3 4
5 6
1 3 2
1 2 3 1
2
Output
<0.5 million kW <1 million kW ≥1 million kW
NPS in operation
NPS not in operation
2
All the 50 NPSs in Japan have suspended operation (red)
Operational Status of Nuclear Power Stations (as of June 8)
Tohoku EPCO Onagawa NPS
TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi NPS
TEPCO Fukushima Daini NPS
JAPC Tokai No. 2 NPS
Chubu EPCO Hamaoka NPS
Shikoku EPCO Ikata Power Station
Hokkaido EPCO Tomari NPS
Tohoku EPCO Higashidori NPS TEPCO Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPS
Hokuriku EPCO Shiga NPS
JAPC Tsuruga Power Station
KEPCO Mihama Power Station
KEPCO Ohi Power Station
KEPCO Takahama Power Station
Chugoku EPCO Shimane NPS
Kyushu EPCO Genkai NPS
Kyushu EPCO
Sendai NPS
8
9
Peak power shortage announced on July 29
[Policy]
○Aim to avoid planned power outages and power usage restriction
○Support efforts to save energy and increase power supply capacity through the FY 2011 initial and
supplementary budgets (\235.3 billion for direct measures to meet peak power demand and \579.4 billion in
total, including indirect measures) and regulatory reform (26 priority items)
[Three pillars]
(1) Increasing visibility of power use (shared saving targets, visualized power consumption with smart meters,
more price plans encouraging electricity saving)
(2) Promoting energy saving by electricity customers (demand structure reform)
(3) Supporting efforts to increase supply capacity involving diverse entities (supply structure reform)
Efforts to increase supply capacity
Increasing visibility of
power use
Diversifying price plans, etc.
7.10 million kW
-16.56 mil. kW
(-9.2%)
Promoting energy saving by
electricity customers
(budget measures, etc.)
2.70 million kW
Supporting efforts to increase supply capacity
involving diverse entities
( budget measures, etc.) 2.33 million kW
Supply measures by utilities
(Increasing thermal power capacity, installing
emergency power sources, etc.) 4.09 million kW
Reducing demand
Up to 9.80 million kW
Increasing supply
Up to 6.42 million kW
Efforts to reduce demand
Dealing With Peak Power Shortages This Summer(figures indicate projections as of November 2011)
10
(1) Increased use of distributed power
sources - Promote installation of distributed power
sources (e.g. self-generation, renewable
energies) and enhance neutrality and fairness
of power transmission and distribution to
support them ・Essentially reduce the burden of the “self-generation
backup contract,” which is needed to prepare for a
failure of self-generation
・Lower the imbalance fees imposed based on the rule
that generated power be equal to demand at all times
・Use utility grids to effectively use excess self-generated
power
・Implement wide-area operation of power transmission
・Establish rules to give priority to renewable energies for
connection and power supply
(2) Promotion of smart meter installation
and flexible electricity price plans
・Provide flexible price plans to further motivate
customers to reduce peak-hour consumption and save
energy
・Establish an institutional framework to accelerate smart
meter installation in accordance with a five-year
intensive installation plan
・Standardize the smart meter interface
(3) Cost reduction by invigorating the
wholesale market ・Use extra power generation capacity of wholesale utilities
and IPPs
○To responsibly implement measures to resolve the power shortage problem this summer, the government established the “Government Action Plan for Energy Regulation and System Reform.”
○The government will stress the implementation of 26 regulatory and system reform items.
○In principle, the conclusion should be reached by the end of FY 2011, followed by swift implementation.
Power system reform (9 items) - Promoting participation of diverse
entities for this summer -
(1) Solar power generation
・Review safety regulations under Electricity
Business Act
・Review of treatment under Factory Location Act
(2) Wind power generation
・Consider reviewing technical guidelines for
examination of wind power plants in natural
parks
・Improve institutional environment for offshore
wind power generation
(3) Geothermal power generation
・Clarify permission requirements under location
regulation pursuant to the Natural Parks Act
・Establish the concept of judgment criteria for
drilling permission under the Hot Springs Act
(4) Small hydro power generation and
biomass
(5) Common items ・Facilitate adjustment of the use of farmland and
woodland for promoting renewable energy
installation in rural villages under the new act to
promote renewable energies in rural villages
・Review permission requirements and standards
for national forests
・Clarify the handling of renewables installation in
local government action plans for global warning
prevention measures
Installation of renewable energies
(9 items) - Supply structure reform -
(1) Introduction of demand-side
measures for peak hours ・Actively evaluate peak electricity measures
under the Energy Conservation Act
・Foster cooperation of suppliers on demand-
side measures for peak hours
(2) Expanded use of storage batteries ・Review regulations concerning the handling
of lithium-ion batteries under the Fire and
Disaster Management Act
・Permit use of lithium-ion batteries as
emergency power sources
(3) Enforcement and reinforcement of
energy conservation regulations
mainly in the private sector ・Review energy conservation standards for
houses and buildings
・Enhance the housing/building labeling
system
・Phase in mandatory conformance to energy
conservation standards for houses and
buildings under the Energy Conservation
Act
(4) Promotion of the effective use of
thermal energy ・Establish systems for thermal energy use
Energy saving promotion
(8 items) - Demand structure reform -
Outline of the Government Action Plan for Energy Regulation and System Reform
11
<Conceptual image>
Nuclear power generation
Thermal power
generation, etc.
Daytim
e
Nig
ht
Substitution of thermal power generation
Thermal power
generation will
be used as a
substitute if
nuclear power
generation is
not operated
Daytim
e
Nig
ht
Estimation of additional fuel costs arising from the substitution of thermal power generation, assuming that LNG-
/oil-fired thermal power generation substitutes the entire generation capacity (approx. 280 billion kWh) of
nuclear power plants operated at a level equal to FY 2009
○Risk of a fuel cost increase of approx. more than \3 trillion (about 20% of Japan’s electricity expenses of
approx. \15 trillion)
○Factors of increasing overall social costs, e.g. installation of self-generation systems by customers and
installation of emergency power sources, aside from the cost increase due to the use of alternative fuels
Nuclear power generation (shut down)
Mo
rnin
g
Mo
rnin
g
<Two measures>
(1) Reducing total demand
(2) Improving management efficiency of electric utilities
(2) Cost increase due to
substitution of thermal
power generation
(1) Peak power shortage
Reduction in supply
capacity due to shutdown
of nuclear power plants
Maximum supply
capacity
Capacity margin
Risk of Electricity Cost Increase Due To the Use of Alternative Fuels
12
<Actions by electric utilities>
○Reducing procurement costs
○Improving management efficiency
・ Taking action considering the points identified in the
“TEPCO Management and Finance Investigation
Committee Report”
<Actions by the government>
○To promptly review the electricity fee system and its
implementation, the government formed an “Expert
Panel for the Review of the Electricity Fee System and
Its Implementation” and compiled a report in March
2012. The fee calculation rules and the fee examination
procedure were revised in FY 2011.
○The validity of fees set by individual utilities will be
checked with improvement of management efficiency as
a major precondition.
Improving management efficiency of
electric utilities
(1) Introducing energy management systems
(HEMS/BEMS)
(2) Promoting installation of energy-/power-saving
equipment (efficient boilers, efficient air
conditioners, building insulation, double-paned
windows, etc.)
(3) Promoting investment to increase production
capacity for LED lights and other energy-saving
products/parts
(4) Encouraging industries, businesses, and
households to save electricity
○Efforts toward peak shaving (e.g. visualizing
power consumption) also have a great potential
to contribute to reductions in total demand
because they lead to rational behavior to save
electricity
Reducing total demand through
energy saving
+
Measures to Curb Electricity Cost Increase
13
25 ▲445 ▲36 ▲10 2 20 53 53 251 137 ▲269 294
Projections for the electricity supply-demand balance this summer the Electricity Supply-Demand Verification Committee
Supply-demand balance projections, assuming a summer as hot as in 2010, economic conditions in 2012,
and established effects of electricity saving measures
Central
& Western Eastern Country Kansai Kyushu Hokkaido Shikoku Hokuriku Tohoku Chugoku Tokyo Chubu
supply-demand gaps
(in 10,000s kW)
Supply-demand Balance Projections for Electric Utilities
※Included the electricity saving effects of supply and demand adjustment contracts
※The light blue number take account of 3% capacity margin.
14
3. Rethinking the Basic Energy Plan
○The government established a new “Basic Energy Plan” in June 2010. Considering increased public interest in
global warming issues, it seeks to significantly improve the energy self-sufficiency ratio (from approx. 18% to
approx. 40%) by 2010 and reduce energy-related CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030 by mobilizing all policy
measures, including the construction of new/additional nuclear power plants.
Targets for 2030 ○Double the energy self-sufficiency ratio and the self-developed fossil fuel supply ratio
(*thereby increasing the energy independence ratio from 38% to about 70%)
○Raise the zero-emission power source ratio from 34% to about 70%
○Reduce CO2 emissions from people‟s lives (residential sector) by half
○Maintain and enhance energy efficiency in the industrial sector at the highest level in the world
○Allow Japanese companies to obtain leading shares of global markets for energy-related products
○ Expanding the feed-in tariff system for renewable energy and promoting deregulation
○ Promoting nuclear power generation
New/additional reactors: 9 by 2020, 14 or more by 2030
Capacity utilization rate: 85% by 2020, 90% by 2030 ○ Improving the efficiency of coal-fired thermal power generation
Comprehensive efforts to secure resources and enhance supply stability
Promotion of international business expansion in the
energy and environment sector
Creating a new energy society
Development and diffusion of innovative energy technologies
Establishment of an independent and environmentally friendly
energy supply structure
Establishment of a low carbon energy demand structure
○ Maintaining and enhancing the world’s most advanced energy efficiency (business
sector)
○ Making net-zero-energy houses/buildings available by 2030
○ Replacing 100% of lights with highly efficient lights (LED etc.) by 2020 on a sales
basis and by 2030 on an installation basis
○ Raising next-generation vehicles’ share of new vehicle sales to up to 50% by 2020
and up to 70% by 2030
○ Demonstrating smart grids and smart communities in Japan and abroad
○ Deepening strategic relationships with resource-rich countries through public-
private joint efforts
○ Raising the self-sufficiency ratio of strategic rare metals to more than 50%
etc.
etc.
etc.
etc.
Measures to achieve the targets
15
Current Basic Energy Plan (Cabinet decision in June 2010)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2009 2030
○The current Basic Energy Plan adopted in June 2010 seeks to increase power dependence on
nuclear energy to more than half by 2030. This should be reviewed from scratch.
・14 new/additional reactors
・Improved capacity
utilization rate
(60.7% in 2007
approx. 90% in 2030)
Coal
Oil etc.
Natural gas
GDP: 1.4-fold increase
by 2030
Power demand: 1-fold
increase by 2030
Including about 30%
energy saving
10,200 10,239
11%
21%
2%
13%
53%
Renewables
etc.
9%
25%
13%
28%
Basic Energy Plan
Energy saving
Fossil fuels
26%
Nuclear 53%
Renewables etc. 21%
Fossil fuels
66%
9%
26%
(in 100 millions of kWh)
=
First oil crisis
Renewables
etc.
25%
Fossil fuels
74%
25%
59%
13%
16
Developing the Strategy From Scratch (material for the third meeting of the Energy and Environment
Council on October 3)
December 21 (Wed): Energy and Environment Council (5th meeting) ○Adopted Basic policy for presenting options in the next spring.
Next summer: Energy and Environment Council
○Will adopt “An Innovative Strategy for Energy and Environment”
Cost Estimation
and Review
Committee
Dec. 19
Report
Advisory Committee
for Natural
Resources and
Energy
Dec. 20
Major discussion
points
Atomic Energy
Commission
Under
deliberation
Central
Environment
Council
Dec. 9
Draft report
[Past developments] [Future plans]
Energy and
Environment
Council
・Discussing
green growth
strategy
Advisory Committee
for Natural
Resources and
Energy
・Developing draft
energy mix scenarios
Atomic Energy
Commission
・Developing
draft nuclear
policy options
Central
Environment
Council
・Developing draft
options of climate
change measures
Energy and
Environment
Council
・Green Growth
Strategy (draft)
Advisory Committee
for Natural
Resources and
Energy
・Strategic Energy
Plan of Japan (draft)
Atomic Energy
Commission
・New
Framework for
Nuclear Energy
Policy (draft)
Central
Environment
Council
・New global
warming
countermeasures
(draft)
December 22 (Thu): Council on National Strategy and Policy (5th meeting)
Will incorporate policy in the “Strategy for the Rebirth of Japan”
Next spring: Energy and Environment Council
○Will present options of energy and environment strategies
Fostering national debate
October 3 (Mon): Energy and Environment Council (3rd
meeting)
○Formed “Cost Estimation and Review Committee.”
17
Past Developments and Future Plans ( material for the fifth meeting of the Energy and Environment Council
on December 21)
June 7 (Tue): Energy and Environment Council formed as
a subgroup of the Council on the Realization of the New
Growth Strategy.
July 29 (Fri): Energy and Environment Council ○Adopted “Interim Compilation of Discussion Points for the
Formulation of Innovative Strategy for Energy and the
Environment.” ・Decided the general direction of the strategy - a scenario to reduce
dependence on nuclear power and a shift to a distributed energy system.
Principle 1: Draw up a scenario for reducing dependence on nuclear energy ○The government will conduct a zero-basis reexamination of the present energy mix, in which nuclear power generation constitutes more than half the electric power supply.
○In other words, the government will enhance the safety of nuclear power plants and continue to use them but with reduced dependence.
○At the same time, the government will cultivate energy frontiers, such as increasing the percentage of renewable energies, drastically reforming the energy demand structure through energy-
saving efforts, and enhancing the clean use and efficiency of fossil fuels.
Principle 2: Develop a clear and strategic schedule in order to avoid energy shortfalls and price hikes
Principle 3: Conduct a thorough review of nuclear power policies and pursue a new vision ○When developing a specific scenario for reducing dependence on nuclear power, the government will comprehensively inspect nuclear policies.
○For how long and by how much should the government reduce dependence on nuclear power? How should the government handle new-generation nuclear technology R&D? What should it
do with back-end issues or nuclear fuel cycle policies? How should the government secure/foster technologies or human resources for attaining the world’s top class safety or maintain the
safety of existing nuclear power plants? How should the government enhance collaboration or cooperation with international organizations or foreign nations? The government will make these
issues clear.
Principle 1: Seek to realize distributed energy systems
Principle 2: Seek to make international contributions as an advanced problem-solving nation
Principle 3: Take a multifaceted approach to the realization of distributed energy systems
Principle 1: Stimulate a national discussion to overcome the confrontation between the opposition to and
promotion of nuclear power generation ○The confrontation between the opposition to and promotion of nuclear power generation has blocked discussions and brought about an unfortunate gap between expert decisions and public
opinions. ○As for nuclear power plants consisting of existing technology, if people can agree with the idea that the government should reexamine the current Plan from scratch and reduce the
dependence on nuclear power, the national discussions will be developed with the theme of “realizing the scenarios for reducing nuclear dependence.” ○Such discussions should help effective energy choices in the future.
Principle 2: Verify objective data in developing the strategy ○The government should hold practical and concrete discussions by objectively verifying data, such as the cost of nuclear power generation and the amount of introducible renewable
energies. ○The Energy and Environment Council will set up the “Cost Estimation and Review Committee” for cost examination and reflect the results in the basic policy formulation scheduled at the year-
end.
Principle 3: Formulate innovative energy and environmental strategies while maintaining dialogue with a broad
range of citizens
Basic philosophy 1: Three principles for achieving a new best mix of energy sources
Basic philosophy 2: Three principles for the realization of new energy systems
Basic philosophy 3: Three principles for the formation of national consensus
18
Highlights of the “Interim Compilation of Discussion Points for the Formulation of „An Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment‟”
(prepared based on material for the second meeting of the Energy and Environment Council on July 29, 2011)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nuclear Coal-fired (new policy scenario)
LNG-fired (new policy scenario)
Wind power
(onshore) Oil-fired Solar
(residential) Geothermal
[capacity utilization rate (%) /useful years ]
[70%/40 yr]
[80%/40 yr] [80%/40 yr] [20%/20 yr]
[80%/40 yr] [50% or 10%
/40 yr] (30% in 2004
estimates)
[12%/20 yr] (35 yr in 2030 model)
Gas cogeneration (before deduction
of heat value)
[70%/30 yr]
5.9
8.9- (2010=2030)
10.3
↑
9.5
10.9
↑
10.7
9.9-
17.3
↓
8.8-
17.3
9.2-
11.6
(2010= 2030)
11.5
↑
10.6
33.4-
38.3
↓
9.9-
20.0
5.7 6.2
Energy
saving
A/C:
7.9-23.4
Fridge:
1.5-13.4
Incandesce
nt lamp
LED 0.1
<Legends>
2004
estimates
2010
model
2030
model
Upper limit
Lower limit
Upper limit
Lower limit
20.1 ↑
19.7 (before
deduction of heat value)
Wind power
(off-shore)
[30%/20 yr]
9.4-
23.1
↓
8.6-
23.1
○Even more attractive to
power consumers when
savings in electricity fees
(\20 for households, \14
for commercial/industrial
customers) are
considered.
(4) Solar : \10-20 (5) Distributed power
sources around \10-20
○Incurs social costs, e.g. cost to prepare for the risk of accidents. ○\8.9/kWh or more
○Increases with fuel
costs and CO2
emission measures.
○As competitive as
nuclear energy.
○Competitive even in at present
if conditions are favorable.
○The following constraints apply
to large-scale installations.
・Higher transmission costs for
wind power due to concentration
of plants in Hokkaido and
Tohoku
・Constraints on geothermal heat,
e.g. concentration in natural
parks
(1) Nuclear approx.
\9 or more
(2) Coal & LNG in the \10 range
(3) Wind & geothermal \10 or less in some
cases even now ○For large-scale installations,
backup by auxiliary power
supply or storage batteries is
needed.
[\/kWh]
16.5
38.9
↑
36.0 (10%)
25.1
↑
22.1 (50%)
19
Power Generation Cost Comparison Among Major Power Sources
20
(3) Direction of energy policy reform
1. Realizing the world’s most advanced energy-
saving society: Reform of the demand structure • Enhance energy conservation policies that include a peak-
shaving approach
• Build a flexible fee structure
• Form dispersal-based smart communities
• Promote visible energy savings through HEMS/BEMS and
reform work style and lifestyle by supplying information to
consumers
2. Realizing a distributed next-generation energy
system: Reform of the supply structure • Achieve distributed next-generation systems that give
consumers various options and makes maximum use of various
supply capabilities (e.g., renewable energies, cogeneration,
private power generation, etc.)
• Reinforce and widen transmission and distribution networks
• Ensure neutrality of the transmission sector
• Spread cogeneration and fuel cells
• Develop infrastructure for the use and interchange of unused
heat in urban districts
• Expand the domestic supply network for natural gas and build a
disaster-resistant petroleum product supply structure
3. Importance of technical innovation • Maintain and reinforce the world’s most advanced energy
technologies
• Accelerate technical innovation
• Implement joint public-private initiatives
General Direction of Major Discussion Points
(1) Perspectives required in rethinking the
Basic Energy Plan
In the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accident at
TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi NPS, Japan’s review of the energy policy must
place stronger emphasis on the following perspectives, with the highest
priority given to “ensuring public safety.”
1. Sustainable energy that earns public trust (restoration of public confidence)
2. Energy policy that emphasizes the “demand side” (demand structure reform by providing “options” [e.g. power sources] and
appropriate incentives for energy and power saving; supply structure reform
from the demand side)
3. Energy policy that emphasizes “consumers” and “ordinary citizens” as
well as “regional communities” (participation of “consumers,” “ordinary citizens,” and “regional communities” to
play leading roles; regional revitalization through the use of untapped energies)
4. Energy policy that supports national strength while making international
contributions (maintaining and reinforcing Japan’s industrial competitiveness; ensuring
energy security, providing stable and inexpensive energy; Japan’s responsibility
in the context of the international energy situation; a strong energy policy)
5. Energy policy that utilizes diverse power and energy sources (overcoming vulnerabilities of a large-scale intensive power system; effectively
using energy throughout the market)
(2) Desired energy mix Further discussion will be held on the following basic directions:
1. Fundamental reinforcement of energy and electricity conservation
measures
2. Accelerated development and use of renewable energies to the
maximum degree possible
3. Clean use of fossil fuels (e.g. shift to natural gas)
4. Reduced dependence on nuclear power wherever possible
source: “Major discussion points toward the establishment of
a new „Basic Energy Plan for Japan‟” on December 20, 2011)
21
Energy Mix in Major Countries: Composition of Power Generation by Energy Source
Nuclear Coal Oil Natural gas Renewables etc.
Japan U.S. Europe Korea China Germany France Italy Ukraine Slovakia
Source: EA “ Electricity Information 2010” “Energy Balances of OECD/Non-OECD Countries 2010”
In Europe, where interconnection of power and gas supply networks is more common, energy
security is ensured throughout the region. Europe’s composition of power generation by
energy source is similar to that of Japan.
22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
18.1%
65.5%
Sources: “Comprehensive Energy Statistics” and “Annual Report on National Accounts.”
(millions kL of crude oil equivalent)
Transport sector
Residential & Commercial sector
Industry sector
(\trillions)
Final energy
consumption
1973→2009
1.3-fold
growth
Tra
nsp
ort
19732009
1.9-fold
growth
Resid
entia
l &
Com
merc
ial
19732009
2.4-fold
growth
Ind
ustry
19732009
0.85-
fold
growth
Real GDP 19732009
2.3-fold growth
23.7%
33.6%
42.7%
16.4%
Trends in Final Energy Consumption in Japan
23 * In addition, the law provides for specific regulatory measures for houses and buildings.
The Energy Conservation Act, the basis of Japan’s energy conservation policy, was established in 1979 in
response to the oil crisis.
It calls for the improvement of energy efficiency in the industry, commercial/residential, and transport sectors.
Factories, offices,
carriers, consigners
Machinery &
equipment
(Top Runner program)
●Companies whose energy consumption or transport capacity exceeds the specified level are
required to submit periodical reports concerning the items below every year for review by the
government.
(1) Changes in energy intensity (target: 1% on annual average)
(2) Implementation status of energy conservation measures (requiring actions contributing to energy
conservation in accordance with qualitative guidelines)
●For any company notably lacking in its energy conservation efforts, the government can disclose
the name and issue directives/orders (or fine in the event of violation).
●Manufacturers and importers of energy consuming equipment are required to meet high standards
(Top Runner standards) in the target fiscal year (set about 3-10 years ahead) and to report
results in the target fiscal year so that the government can check the degree of
achievement.
●If substantial improvement in performance is necessary, the government can disclose the name
and issue recommendations/orders (or fine in the event of violation).
Top Runner standards (23 product categories) Designated products, including passenger vehicles, air conditioners, and TV sets, are required to provide,
in their own target year, performance equal to or more than that of the most superior product on the
market at the time of setting the standards.
[Past improvements in efficiency] passenger vehicle fuel efficiency: up 47% (from 1997 to 2009)
air conditioner energy efficiency: up 68% (from 1997 to 2004)
Structure of the Energy Conservation Act (Act on the Rational Use of Energy)
24
○ The global energy market (generated electricity) is dominated by the U.S. and China.
○ The 21st century’s energy supply is expected to be sourced mainly from fossil fuels, especially in developing
countries.
[Sources: OECD/IEA, “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2010” and “Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries 2010,” 2008 results.]
Fossil fuels: International Comparison of Electricity Composition Among Major Countries
Renewables
etc.
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Oil
U.S. China Japan Canada Germany France
25
Japan
Germany
USA
China
Australia
India
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Japan Germany USA China Australia India
Efficiency of coal-fired power generatio (LHV, %)
Efficiency of coal-fired power generation, by country: The efficiency of coal-fired
power generation in major countries remains low, leaving room for improvement.
Source: Ecofys, “International Comparison of Fossil Power Efficiency (2008).”
Fossil Fuels : Technological Innovation Toward Zero Emissions
26
Oxifuel combustion Co2 recovery power generating system CO2 transportation/storage
Oxygen generator
Coal
Re-circulated gas (mainly CO2)
O2 Air (N2, O2)
Noncondensable gas N2
Dust collector
CO2 liquefaction and recovery
plant
Boiler
CO2 Underground storage
CO2 storage transportation equipment
G
Condenser
ST Smokestack
P
About 225M Australian dollars (including subsidies from Japanese and Australian governments) Japan contributes 42M Australian dollars (about 34B yen that is split between public and private partners)
2008 – 2011 Retrofit of existing power station
2011 – 2013 Oxyfuel demonstration operation
2012 - 2014 CO2 injection and monitoring
Japan : Japan-Australia Oxifuel Combustion Demonstration Project Japan Limited Liability Partnership(formed by J-POWER, IHI and Mitsui & Co.) JCOAL (Supporting Collaborator) Australia: CS Energy, Xstrata, Schlumberger, Australian Coal Association (ACA)
Features
・Applicable to both existing and new power plants
・Has a potential to reduce CO2 recovery energy and costs
・Has a potential to reduce NOx emissions
System
Oxifuel Combustion is:
Technology to facilitate CO2 recovery by burning fuel such as coal using only oxygen to make CO2 the principal component of exhaust gas from the boiler.
・Oxygen generation (air separation) equipment is installed. ・Exhaust gas is re-circulated and flame temperature is adjusted to
use existing boiler technology.
At Callide A pulverized coal power station (generation capacity: 30MWe) in Central Queensland, Australia,
low-emission coal thermal power generation using Oxifuel Combustion Technologies will be demonstrated
toward practical application of CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) technology.
Project image
Partners
Project budget
Schedule
Technological Innovation toward Zero Emission International Joint Research and Demonstration on Oxifuel Combustion
27
(1) In 2008, by taking into account the presence or absence of data for existing wells with an excavated depth of
over 500 meters, the proposed sites for the CCS demonstration test were narrowed down from 115 to 7 sites.
(2) In 2009, taking into account whether a source of emissions was located in the vicinity, the sites were narrowed down again to three candidates (offshore Tomakomai, offshore Nakoso-Iwaki, and offshore Kitakyushu).
(3) Of the three sites, the survey at the Tomakomai site was the furthest ahead. Thus, based on the survey results at the time, a technical evaluation was conducted. Concurrently, activities to promote the understanding of CSS were carried out locally (holding forums etc.). In February of this year it was decided to begin a trial implementation at the Tomakomai site starting in the 2012 fiscal year.
1. Sequence of Events
(1)Demonstration Test Overview ①Source of emissions : oil refinery ②Separation and Recovery System : chemical absorption method ③Injected amount : 100 000 tones of CO2/year or more (injection period: approximately 3 years) (Injected into two layers: Moebetsu Layer (depth of 1100m to 1200m) and Takinoue Layer (depth of 2400m to 3000m)) (2)Demonstration Test Schedule
2. Future Plans
Launch of EPC in 2012 fiscal year
Injection Monitoring Schematic Diagram
Domestic location of the three proposed sites
Port of Tomakomai
①Measurement of temperature, pressure etc. at wellead
② Measurement of temperature, pressure, CO2 injection amount at wellhead
⑤Periodic 2D and 3D elastic wave survey of ocean region
⑥Observation of seabed vibrations and natural earthquakes(OBS, OBC)
③Well bottom temperature, pressure measurement Vibration and natural earthquake observation
④ Well bottom temperature, pressure measurement
⑦ Observation of vibrations and natural earthquakes by land-based seismometer installation
⑧ Ocean monitoring system (Marine Pollution Prevention Law)
Basic Survey Stage
Survey currently halted due to Great East Japan Earthquake
Kitakyushu Site
Tomakomai Site
Nakoso-Iwaki Site
1styear 2ndyear 3rdyear 4thyear 5thyear 6thyear 7thyear 8thyear 9thyear
CO2 Supply Base
CO2 Injedtion Bsae and Injection Well
Monitoring
Investiga-tion
Phase
Engineering, Procurement ,Construction
Engineering, Procurement ,Construction(Excavation)
Engineering, Procurement ,Establishment
Pre-injection Observation
Supply Operation
Injection Operation
Observation During Injection
Post-injection Observation
The CCS Demonstration Test at the Tomakomai Site
28
Energy Self-sufficiency Ratio and Energy Mix
Source: Excerpts from documents created by the IEA
Nuclear power is an important option for countries with a low energy self -sufficiency ratio
(i.e. with scarce domestic energy resources)
29
Energy Dependence on Specific Regions and Energy Mix
Cru
de
oil
imp
ort
de
pe
nd
ence o
n th
e M
idd
le E
ast
Nuclear energy-using
countries
Non-using countries
Gas import dependence on Russia Source: Excerpts from documents created by the IEA
Japan and Korea (which are heavily dependent on the Middle East for crude oil) and East
European countries (which are heavily dependent on Russia for gas) promote nuclear power.
30
4. Renewable Energy
31 Sources: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, “Energy in JAPAN”; New Energy Foundation, “New Energy Award”; NEDO, “Best 100 New Energies”; etc.
Solar power
generation
Wind power generation
Geothermal
power generation
Hydroelectric
power generation
提供:㈱ジャイロダイナミクス
提供:(財)エンジニアリング振興協会
Other:
Ocean energy, etc.
Oce
an
cu
rren
t
po
we
r ge
ne
ratio
n
Wave
activ
ate
d
ge
ne
ratio
n
What is Renewable Energy?
Courtesy of Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding Co., Ltd.
Courtesy of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Biomass
power generation
32
New energies, energy conservation and the smart community are technologies still in their infancy. However, their
markets have a large growth potential driven by factors such as increasing resource constraints, energy security,
global warming, and even electricity supply shortages after the 3.11 disaster.
The market size and the market growth rate of new energy industries will be substantial, even compared with the
automobile industry, today’s leading market.
[Automobile industry]
Source: Estimated at the value
of \1,747,718 per vehicle, which
was calculated from METI’s
“Machinery Statistics” (2010
Annual Report), and using
figures in “Automobile Industry
Forecast for 2020 (2011 edition)”
issued by Sougou Giken Co.,
Ltd.
Market for New Energy Industries
[New energy industries]
* Including solar power, wind power,
solar heat, fuel cells, storage batteries
(LiB), ZEB, and ZEH.
Source: Prepared by Teikoku
Databank based on documents, such
as the Global Wind Energy Council’s
“Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010.”
Mark
et gro
wth
rate
(2010
-20)
New energy industries
\86 tn.
\10 tn. \15 tn.
\30.3 tn.
\50 tn. \123 tn.
\151 tn.
Automobiles
\200 tn.
Market size (in \trillions)
The size of the circle
corresponds to the market size.
Projected global market size in 2020
Global market size in 2010
33
* The above data shows electricity supply from facilities certified under the RPS Act. It does not include electricity generated before the enforcement of the RPS Act, electricity
generated by facilities not certified under the RPS Act, and electricity generated by facilities certified under the RPS Act but self-consumed.
* The solar power generation facilities covered by the excess electricity purchasing scheme are counted as “specified solar” facilities in and after November 2009.
Change over the years in total supply of electricity from “New Energy” power generation facilities (in 100 millions of kWh)
Since the introduction of the RPS system (in 2003), the supply amount of renewable energy sourced
electricity has doubled.
Furthermore, since the introduction of the Excess Electricity Purchasing Scheme (in 2009), the
installation of residential solar systems has sharply increased.
Change in the Amount of Electricity Supplied by Renewable Energy
Start of excess electricity purchasing from residential facilities
FY 2003
FY 2004
FY 2005
FY 2006
FY 2007
FY 2008
FY 2009
FY 2010
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar
Specified solar
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar
Wind Hydro Biomass
Solar Specified solar
34
Electric utilities
Cost Bearing Adjustment Organization (responsible for collecting and distributing surcharges)
Purchase electricity for the
government-defined period and price
Sell electricity generated
from renewable energies Supply electricity
Collect surcharges as
part of electricity bills
Pay collected
surcharges Grant purchase
costs
・Certify facilities (The government verifies the facilities’
capability to generate power stably and
efficiently. Certification is revoked for
facilities no longer satisfying the
requirements.) Procurement Price
Calculation Committee
Electricity
customers
Operators of residential
power generation
Government
Operators of commercial power generation from renewable energies
METI Minister
Opinions on purchase price and
period
Set purchase price and period
based on opinions of the
Procurement Price Calculation
Committee
Decide surcharge
unit price per kWh
Electric utilities are obliged to purchase electricity generated from renewable energy sources (e.g. solar power, wind power, hydro, geothermal heat,
biomass) on a fixed-period contract at a fixed price. The system will be launched on July 1, 2012.
The cost of the purchased electricity will in principle be transferred to electricity customers in the form of a surcharge proportional to electricity usage.
The government expects to attract investments to the renewable energy market by promising steady returns. The purchase price and period have been
discussed by the Procurement Price Calculation Committee (appointment of the members requires consent of the Diet), which submitted opinions to the
METI Minister on April 27 (e.g. purchase at \42 for 20 years for large-scale solar power generation). With these opinions in mind, the Minister will decide the
final purchase price.
Outline of the Act on Special Measures for Renewable Energy
35
Source Solar power Wind power Geothermal heat Small & medium hydro
Purchase category ≥10 kW <10 kW
≥20 kW <20 kW
≥15,000 kW <15,000
kW
≥1,000 kW,
<30,000 kW
≥200 kW ,
<1,000 kW <200 kW
Cost
Construction
cost
(in \1,000s)
\325/kW \466/kW \300/kW \1,250/kW \790/kW
\1,230/kW \850/kW \800/kW \1,000/kW
Annual
operation &
maintenance
cost (in \1,000s)
\10/kW \4.7/kW \6.0/kW - \33/kW \48/kW \9.5/kW \69/kW \75/kW
IRR 6% before
tax
3.2% before
tax (*1)
8% before
tax
1.8%
before tax
13% before tax (*2) 7% before
tax
7% before tax
Pu
rch
ase p
rice
pe
r kW
h
Incl.
tax (*3) \42.00 \42
(*1) \23.10 \57.75 \27.30 \42.00 \25.20 \30.45 \35.70
Excl.
tax \40 \42 \22 \55 \26 \40 \24 \29 \34
Purchase period 20 yr. 10 yr. 20 yr. 20 yr. 15 yr. 15 yr. 20 yr.
(*1) Residential solar power generation
In solar power generation, although the purchase price for <10 kW may seem equal to that for ≥10 kW, the actual price for residential power
generation is \48 when a subsidy of \35,000 per kW (FY 2012) is taken into account.
Since ordinary consumers are not obliged to pay consumption tax on electricity they sell, their prices including tax are equal to those
excluding tax.
(*2) IRR of geothermal power generation
The IRR set for geothermal power generation (13%) is higher than those for other energy sources because site development, including earth
surface surveys and exploration well drilling, costs about \4.6 billion per project and because the rate of successful commercial operation is
low (about 7%).
(*3) Handling of the consumption tax
Tax-exclusive pricing is proposed regarding the consumption tax, assuming the possibility that the consumption tax rate may be changed in
the future. However, with regards to the case of purchasing excess electricity generated from solar power (a majority of which is generated
by ordinary consumers) the existing consumption tax should be applied.
Purchase Categories, Prices and Periods Proposed by the Committee Chair
36
Source Biomass
Purchase category Gasification
(sludge)
Gasificatio
n (livestock
excreta)
Solid fuel
combustion (unused
wood)
Solid fuel
combustion
(general wood)
Solid fuel
combustion
(municipal
waste)
Solid fuel
combustion
(sludge)
Solid fuel
combustion
(recycled wood)
Cost
Construction cost
(in \1,000s) \3,920/kW \410/kW \410/kW \310/kW \350/kW
Annual operation &
maintenance cost (in \1,000s)
\184/kW \27/kW \27/kW \22/kW \27/kW
IRR 1% before tax 8% before tax 4% before tax 4% before tax 4% before tax
Purchase
price
per kWh
Cat.
[Biomass from
methane fermentation
gasification]
[Unused wood] [General
wood (incl. palm
shell)]
[Biomass from wastes
(other than wood)]
[Recycled
wood]
Incl.
tax
\40.95 \33.60 \25.20 \17.85 \13.65
Excl.
tax
\39 \32 \24 \17 \13
Purchase period 20 yr.
Purchase Categories, Prices and Periods Proposed by the Committee Chair
37
○Starting with the Sunshine Program in 1974, Japan has been leading the global solar cell market. However, China,
Germany and the U.S. have made huge strides in recent years.
○Japan needs to accelerate the improvement of power generation efficiency and significant cost reductions by
conducting R&D of innovative technologies for new types of high-efficiency, low-price solar cells (thin-film type, dye-
sensitized type, quantum dot type, etc.), in which Japan has advanced technology.
Future technology development
Promoting the Development of Innovative Photovoltaic Technology
Market share by photovoltaic module
manufacturers (2009)
First Solar (U.S., Germany, Malaysia) 9.5%
2009 global
production
10,660 MW
Source: IEA “Trends In Photovoltaic Applications – Survey report of selected IEA countries
between 1992 and 2008”
Suntech Power
(China) 6.6%
Other
35.9%
Sharp (Japan) 5.6%
Yingli Green
Energy (China)
4.9%
Q-Cells (Germany,
Malaysia) 5.0%
SANYO Electric (Japan) 2.4%
Kyocera (Japan) 3.8%
Solar fun
(China)
2.1%
Canadian Solar
(China) 3.1%
Sun Power
(Philippines
[U.S.]) 3.7% Trina Solar (China)
3.7%
E-TON (Taiwan 2.1%
JA Solar (China) 4.8%
Gintech
(Taiwan)
3.5%
Motech
(Taiwan)
3.4%
\260/kWh
Polycrystalline
silicon
CIS (chemical
compounds)
\49/kWh
Development of innovative
solar cell technology
Thin-film silicon
Dye sensitized
Quantum dot structure
Commercialization of thin
film products
(silicon/chemical
compounds) in addition to
bulk crystalline silicon
Conversion efficiency: 10-15% Over 40%
\7/kWh
Systems with no burden on the grid
From standalone to integrated
systems
\24/kWh
Emergence of solar cells using new
materials (dye, etc.) and new
structure (quantum nano-structure)
instead of silicon or chemical
compounds
Systems with storage batteries
Pow
er
genera
tion
Source: Prepared by METI based on the “Report by the Review Committee on
the PV Roadmap Toward 2030 (PV2030),” issued by NEDO in June 2004.
Storage battery costs
reduced by technological
innovation
\14/kWh
38
Effort toward innovative technologies ○Development of floating technologies (lightweight, strong materials/structures for the floating body) in order to operate offshore wind
power generation in deep-sea areas
○Development of high-strength foundations (base) resistant to strong sea currents
○Development of highly durable components (bearings, etc.) to cope with the difficulty of offshore repair work
○The development cost of onshore wind power generation in Japan
may increase gradually because facilities are installed at locations
with favorable conditions first and because they face noise and
landscape problems.
○Japan’s offshore wind power generation has a large potential (sea
area) if conditions - which are less favorable than in Europe (e.g.
fewer large shallow water areas, impact of typhoons and sea
currents) - are overcome with new technologies.
○Japan should promote development with an eye toward plant export
and technology transfer to Southeast Asian countries, where
meteorological conditions are similar to Japan’s.
Increasing the Installation of Offshore Wind Power Generation
Coast of Kamisu,
Ibaraki
Coast of Goto,
Nagasaki
Coast of Miura,
Kanagawa
Coast of Kitakyushu,
Fukuoka
Coast of Boso
Peninsula, Chiba
Coast of Ichikikushikino,
Kagoshima
6 sea areas subjected to feasibility study (detailed FS indicated in blue)
Installed capacity of offshore wind power generation, by country
(as of June 20, 2010)
Installed capacity (MW)
Insta
lled c
apacity (
MW
)
U.K. Denmark Netherlands Sweden China Germany Finland Belgium Ireland Spain Norway
Source: Prepared based on “Wind Service Holland” (http://home.kpn.nl/windsh/wsh/html).
Wind observation tower
Windmill
Wave observation unit
Conceptual image of experimental study
on the wind observation and power generation system (Courtesy of Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc., the University of Tokyo, and Kajima Corp.)
39
Integrated control of multiple sectors
Yokohama City Keihanna
Kitakyushu City Toyota City Independent
house type
Housing
estate type
Major provincial
city type
Heavy dependence on the grid
(centrally controlled)
(Participants)
Toyota City, Toyota Motor, Chubu Electric Power, Denso,
Sharp, Fujitsu, Dream Incubator, etc.
• Operated by Toyota City, Toyota Motor, Chubu Electric Power,
Denso, Sharp, Fujitsu, Dream Incubator, etc.
• Installed HEMS in 67 houses (27 occupied as of April 2012) to
perform a demand response demonstration (changes in the
residents’ demand by dynamic pricing) and demonstrate
automatic home appliance control and V2H.
• Implementing demand-side management of the transport
sector in collaboration with public transport systems and a one-
mile mobility project.
Small dependence on the grid
(distributed control)
<Participants>
Kyoto Prefecture, KEPCO, Osaka Gas, Omron, Mitsubishi
Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsubishi Motors, etc.
• Smart meters have been installed in a new housing estate
consisting of about 900 households to apply dynamic pricing and
demonstrate changes in demand among residents (demand
response demonstration).
• The project provides families with energy consulting services
(through ESCO) and studies commercialization of healthcare
and retail services by means of in-home terminals to visualize
energy consumption.
Control of the single sector (residential)
To install renewable energies in large amounts, a “smart grid” is necessary in order to manage the supply-demand balance in response
to constant fluctuations of renewable energies by means of energy creation, conservation and storage.
Since the Great East Japan Earthquake, the need for a decentralized, rather than centralized, energy network based on distributed
power sources has become pronounced.
With the goal of developing technologies for a “smart community” that implements these concepts, field trials are underway in
Yokohama, Toyota, Keihanna Science City, and Kitakyushu to establish EMS and power storage technologies.
<Participants>
Kitakyushu City, Fuji Electric Systems,
IBM Japan, Nippon Steel, NTT West, etc.
• This demonstration project started in April this year to install
smart meters in 230
households and 50 offices
in the area receiving power
from Nippon Steel under
special contract and to change
the electricity pricing scheme
in real time in accordance with
the supply-demand balance.
Establishment of a regional electricity saving station that totally manages area-wide energy
Increasing Needs for a Smart Community
Wide urban
area type
Minato Mirai district Kohoku New
Town district
Kanazawa district <Participants>
Yokohama City, Toshiba, Panasonic, Hitachi,
Meidensha, Nissan, Tokyo Gas, TEPCO, etc.
• Conducting technical demonstration of a regional energy
management system in a large area (Minato Mirai, Kohoku New
Town and Kanazawa districts) inhabited by 4,000 households.
• Introduced dynamic pricing based on the smart meter and the
HEMS.
• Installed a large-capacity lithium-ion battery (1 MW) in the
substation for virtual integration with residential storage batteries to
achieve control as a single storage battery.
40
For example, operators of solar power generation, which depends on weather, can reduce
dependence on grid power by using fuel cells as well, which can generate power on rainy or cloudy
days.
The distributed energy system will become a more reliable energy infrastructure when combined with
fuel cells, along with solar power generation and storage batteries.
Oil factory Natural gas supply lines (existing)
Hydrogen pipelines
(future)
Apartments
House
Fuel cell vehicles
(FCV)
<to be launched in 2015>
Hydrogen filling
Hydrogen station
Hydrogen
Hydrogen as a
by-product
Hospital Commercial fuel cell
(100 kW class)
Residential fuel cells
(Ene Farm)
Residential fuel cells
(Ene Farm)
Factory
(steelworks, chemical factory, etc.)
Commercial facilities
Fuel cell-gas turbine
combined power generation system
(250 kW class)
<under development>
Commercial fuel cell-gas turbine
combined power generation system
(1.20 million kW class)
<development starting in FY 2012>
Fuel cell scooter
<under field trial>
Conceptual image of
a fuel cell train
<copied from JR East website>
Factory (steelworks, chemical
factory, etc.)
Mobile/portable fuel cell
<copied from JEMA website>
Highway shuttle bus
<under field trial>
Smart community
Consolidating the Distributed Energy System with Hydrogen Infrastructure
41
○The government has been active in introducing and expanding flexible price plans for peak
shaving/shifting (applicable to unregulated fees first), even before the installation of smart
meters.
○The target for the installation of smart meters, as outlined in the Basic Energy Plan
(installation in every household in the early 2020s, in principle), will be met ahead of schedule.
Near term (this winter) (this summer) Install smart meters for
80% of total demand in
the next 5 years Install smart meters for
all large customers
Install smart meters for
all small customers
」 Field trials of meter communications
Creation of roadmap for installation
Hig
h
vo
ltag
e
Low
vo
ltag
e
2020
Meet the Basic Energy
Plan target ahead of
schedule Full-scale installation of smart meters
×
■
(1)Time-of-day fees (fees doubled during peak
hours)
Power consumption reduction effect: -13.1%
(2) Emergency peak-hour surcharge (fees tripled
during peak hours on a day with a temperature at
33 degrees C or higher)
Power consumption reduction effect: -15.6%
(3) Visualizing power consumption
<Peak-hour electricity saving effects of pricing measures on households>
<Installation of smart meters>
Source: FY 2010 project to demonstrate the effects of a large-scale
installation of smart meters.
Accelerating the Introduction of Smart Meters and Flexible Price Plans
42
5. Energy Resource Development
43
Exploration and Development by International Oil Majors
Shale gas
Shale gas
Arctic Ocean development
Arctic Ocean development
Land: Coalbed methane Sea: Development in the ultra-deep ocean
Development in the ultra-
deep ocean
Mining property acquisition in 2008-2009
44
Major Coal Trading Across the World (estimates for 2009)
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Poland
Colombia
South Africa
Australia
Russia
China
Canada
North
America
United States
South
America
Other parts
of Europe
Japan
Other parts
of Asia
Africa & Middle
East
European OECD
countries
45
Methane Hydrate Distribution
Latest BSR distribution map (2009)
BSR area = approx. 122,000 km2
BSR (accumulations estimated by detailed surveys) approx. 5,000 km2
BSR (characteristics suggesting accumulations found in some parts of the sea area)
approx 61,000 km2
BSR (no characteristics suggesting accumulations) approx. 20,000 km2
BSR (little survey data available) approx. 36,000 km2
* The BSR is an abbreviation for the bottom simulating reflector, which is observed in seismic exploration.
It is used as an indicator of the presence of methane hydrate.
46
6. Future Energy Policy of Japan
47
1. Fundamentally enhancing energy and electricity conservation
measures
2. Accelerating the development and use of renewable energies to the
maximum degree
3. Promoting the clean use of fossil fuels (shifting to natural gas, etc.)
4. Reducing dependence on nuclear power generation wherever
possible
In the wake of the great earthquake disaster and the nuclear accident, Japan
faces the need to radically review its policy for energy structure, which aims to
increase its energy dependence on nuclear power to more than half by 2030.
<Basic direction of review>
Direction of Japan‟s Desirable Energy Mix
48
2. The desired energy mix and direction of energy policy reform
(1) Desired energy mix Further discussion will be held on the following basic
directions:
i. Fundamental reinforcement of energy and electricity
conservation measures
ii. Accelerated development and use of renewable
energies to the maximum degree possible
iii. Clean use of fossil fuels (e.g. shift to natural gas)
iv. Reduced dependence on nuclear power wherever
possible
• Regarding nuclear power generation, two directions are
mentioned: “withdrawing from nuclear energy as soon
as possible” and “maintaining a certain proportion
of nuclear power.”
3. Next Steps The subcommittee will hold intensive discussions on specific scenarios for individual energy sources and present desired
energy mix options around this spring, with the aim of reflecting the results in a new Basic Energy Plan to be completed around
this summer.
Outline of the “Major Discussion Points” Published by the Fundamental Issues Subcommittee of the Advisory
Committee for Natural Resources and Energy (released on December 20, 2011)
The report is a summary of the general direction of the discussions held by the subcommittee to date and is
considered as the starting point for a full-fledged debate.
1. Perspectives required in rethinking the Basic Energy Plan i. Sustainable energy policy that earns the public’s trust
ii. Energy policy that emphasizes the “demand side”
iii. Energy policy that emphasizes “consumers” and “ordinary citizens” as well as “regional communities”
iv. Energy policy that supports national strength while making international contributions
v. Energy policy that utilizes diverse power and energy sources
(2) Direction of energy policy reform i. Realizing the world’s most advanced energy-saving
society: reform of the demand structure
ii. Realizing a distributed next-generation energy system:
reform of the supply structure
* Regarding the power system reform, two
directions are mentioned: fundamental review (e.g.
liberalization, separation of generation and
transmission) and more reserved opinions on the
reform.
iii. Importance of technical innovation
49
Nuclear power
generation
Renewable
energy
Thermal
power
generation
Cogeneration/
self-
generation
Energy saving
(power saving)
Energy-related
CO2 emissions
(Electricity-related
CO2 emissions)
[compared with
1990 level]
Electricity fees
[basically
compared with
2010 level]
1 (approx.)
0% 35% 50% 15%
[Compared with
2010 level]
Energy saved by
approx. 20%
(Electricity
saved by approx.
10%)
-16%
(+5%)
+78%
to +130%
2 (approx.)
15% 30% 40% 15% -20%
(-8%)
+64%
to +101%
3 (approx.)
20-25% 25-30% 35% 15% -23%
(-15%)
+66%
to +94%
Reference
case
(approx.) 35% 25% 25% 15%
-28%
(-33%)
+53%
to +76%
4 Realizing a socially optimal configuration for electrical power according
to the market choice of consumers under a system that places the burden
of the social cost on providers (as well as consumers). - -
Present plan (established in
FY 2010) 45% 20% 23% 12%
-31% -
(-27%)
FY 2010 26% 11% 57% 6% +6%
- (+25%)
*1: Energy-related CO2 emissions, electricity-related CO2 emissions, and electricity fees are preliminary figures (and still under detailed examination).
The real growth rates are based on conservative cases (note) (approx. 1.1% in the 2010s, approx. 0.8% in the 2020s).
(Note: Conservative cases refer to a conservative economic outlook compiled in accordance with the decision shown in “Fiscal Management Policy” [Cabinet
decision in June 2010]: “The roadmap for fiscal consolidation targets should in principle be predicated on a conservative economic outlook.”)
*1 *1
Quantitative Energy Mix Scenarios Under Discussion
Committee for Natural Resources and Energy
*1
The government has identified five potential energy mix scenarios for 2030: These options have been discussed in
consideration of the results of an economic impact analysis in order to prepare a draft of official scenarios.
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Thank you for your listening!