klamath adr hydrology report modeling results historical record and instream claims
DESCRIPTION
Klamath ADR Hydrology Report Modeling Results Historical Record and Instream Claims Model Accuracy. Jonathan La Marche KADR Hydrologist3/11/2000. Klamath Distribution Model. Preliminary Results. Four New Model Runs. 1) Basin separated into two areas - above Klamath Lake and - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Klamath ADR Hydrology Report
• Modeling Results
• Historical Record and Instream Claims
• Model Accuracy
Jonathan La Marche KADR Hydrologist 3/11/2000
Klamath Distribution Model
Preliminary Results
Four New Model Runs
1) Basin separated into two areas - above Klamath Lake and Klamath Lake to Iron Gate (Run 5)
2) Instream claims turned off above Klamath Lake (Run 4)
3) All claims below Klamath Lake deferred to claims above Klamath Lake (Run 8)
4) Using adjudicators preliminary findings for instream claims (Run 6)
The first three runs isolate for the effects of lake levels and instream claims on claimants above Klamath Lake.
The last run shows the effects of instream claims as described in preliminary findings on claimants in upper Klamath basin.
Results with Basin Separated
•Compare results between separated (run D5) and integrated basin (D1) with all claims on.
•This isolates the effects of instream claims on users above Klamath Lake. (i.e. lake claims and project claims do not extend above lake).
•Results shown as yearly supply and deliveries above and below Klamath Lake.
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries above Klamath Lake
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
-1864 1865-1904 1905 post 1905 D1 D5
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries Below Klamath Lake
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
1865-1904 1905 post 1905 none D1 D5
Summary
• Lake level claims and BOR Claims have a minimal effect on upstream diversions, given the level of instream claims (as filed) above Klamath Lake.
• Instream claims (as filed) control amount of irrigation above Klamath Lake.
Results with instream claims turned off above Klamath Lake
• Compare results with instream claims on and off above Klamath Lake (Run D1 and Run D4).
• Isolates effects of lake level claims and project claims on upper basin.
• Yearly total of supply and delivery above and below Klamath Lake
• Lake Levels
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries above Klamath Lake
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
18000019
74
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
-1864 1865-1904 1905 post 1905 D1 D4
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries Below Klamath Lake
050000
100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000500000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
1865-1904 1905 post 1905 none D1 D4
Simulated vs Claimed Monthly Klamath Lake LevelsWY 1986-1997
4136413741384139414041414142414341444145
10 1
991
2 19
91
6 19
91
10 1
992
2 19
92
6 19
92
10 1
993
2 19
93
6 19
93
10 1
994
2 19
94
6 19
94
Ele
vatio
n (M
SL
, ft)
Historical Lake Levels D1 D4
Summary
• With instream claims above Klamath Lake off, the lake level and BOR claims do have an effect of irrigation above Klamath Lake.
• However, lake level claims do not appear to have a substantial “direct” impact on upstream irrigation. Lake levels are kept high, therefore less water is needed to fill the lake (even during dry years).
Summary
• Lake levels do appear to have an “indirect” impact on upstream irrigation by creating shortages in the project. These project shortages may in turn create calls on water users above Klamath Lake with a post 1905 priority date.
• The stored water available for use by the project is substantially limited by the lake claims. This creates an increased reliance on live flows, which, during below average and dry years, creates shortages for the project.
Defer all claims below Klamath Lake to claims above Klamath Lake (Run 8).
• Isolates for effects of lake level claim on users above Klamath Lake.
• Compare results of D4 (integrated basin, instream claims off above Klamath Lake) with D8 (same as D4, except claims below lake defer to above Klamath Lake).
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries above Klamath Lake
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
-1864 1865-1904 1905 post 1905 D4 D8
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries Below Klamath Lake
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
1865-1904 1905 post 1905 none D4 D8
Simulated vs Claimed Monthly Klamath Lake LevelsWY 1986-1997
4136
4137
4138
4139
41404141
4142
4143
4144
414510
199
1
10 1
992
10 1
993
10 1
994
Ele
vatio
n (M
SL
, ft)
Historical Lake Levels D4 D8
Summary
The lake level claim alone has a limited (if any) effecton irrigation above Klamath Lake. Lake levels are kept elevated, which reduces the amount of water necessary to fill the lake.
The lake level claim limits the storage capacity available for the project, and therefore reduces project irrigation especially during low water years.
Lake level claims have an indirect impact on irrigation above Klamath Lake by creating shortages in the project area. These shortages may create calls on water.
Results using adjudicator’s preliminary findings.
• Instream claim #672 below the project was denied, therefore FERC flows were used instead with a zero priority date.
• Comparison of two runs. Run 6 includes the preliminary findings with FERC flows. Run 7 is with claims as initially filed with FERC flows.
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries above Klamath Lake
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
-1864 1865-1904 1905 post 1905 D7 D6
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries Below Klamath Lake
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
1865-1904 1905 post 1905 none D7 D6
Simulated vs Claimed Monthly Klamath Lake Levels WY 1974-1985
413641374138413941404141414241434144
10 1
974
10 1
975
10 1
976
10 1
977
10 1
978
10 1
979
10 1
980
10 1
981
10 1
982
10 1
983
10 1
984
10 1
985
Ele
vatio
n (M
SL
, ft)
Historical Flows D7 D6
Results above Klamath Lake vary dramatically bysub-basin.
Yearly Sum of all Irrigation Demands and Deliveries above Klamath Lake
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
ac-f
t
-1864 1865-1904 1905 post 1905 D7 D6
Wood R. Average Monthly Irrigation Demands and Deliveries over POR
0
100
200
300
400
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
cfs
Wood A Wood B Wood C
Wood D D7 D6
Upper Sycan Average Monthly Irrigation Demand and Deliveries over POR
0
4
812
16
20
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
cfs
Sycan A Sycan D D7 D6
Summary
The adjudicators preliminary findings, have a lesser impact on irrigation in the basin when compared to the original claims.
However, the amount of water available for irrigation varies significantly between sub-basins.
Without ESA requirements, the project area would get significantdeliveries under the adjudicator’s preliminary findings.
However, the simulated deliveries may be overstated due to the lack of simulated instream requirements below the project.
Historical Records
Median flows at long term gages over simulation period (1974-1997)
Median flow is the amount of water flowing in the river at least 50% of the time.
Information Prepared for the Klamath Basin Alternative Dispute Resolution Process and is not admissible in legal proceedings, pursuant to ADR Operating Principle 7.2, without the consent of the affected participants, ADR Operating Principle 7.3.3(3).
Jonathan La Marche KADR Hydrologist 3/11/2000
By calculating the median flow at long term gage sites in the basin and comparing them to instream claims, the general effects of these claims on irrigation can be examined.
Long Term Gage Records
• Sycan near Beatty (Gage #11499100)
• Upper Sprague near Beatty (Gage #11497500)
• Lower Sprague near Chiloquin (Gage #11501000)
• Upper Williamson near Rocky Ford (Gage #11491400)
• Lower Williamson above Sprague Confluence (Gage #11502500 - Gage #11501000)
• Lower Williamson below Sprague Confluence (Gage #11502500)
• Klamath near Keno (Gage #11509500)
11491400 (73-98)
11499100 (73-97)
11497500 (53-97)
11493500 (54-95)
11501000 (21-97)
11502500 (17-97)
11507000 (22-98)
11507500 (61-97)
11509500 (29-97)
11510700 (60-97)
Project CanalDiversions (61-98)
LONG TERM GAGE LOCATIONS in the KLAMATH BASIN
GAGE PERIOD OF OVERLAP (73-95)
Median Historical Flows (74-97) Sycan River at Gage #11499100
26 35 39 4387
216
440
318
9331 20 23
0
100
200
300
400
500
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
74-97 median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows (74-97) Sycan River at Gage #11499100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim Preliminary ODFW 74-97 median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Sycan River at Mouth
050
100150200250300350400450
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim Preliminary ODFW 74-97 median
Median Historical Flows Upper Sprague River at Gage 11497500
141 157 168 182 233
426
599 568
274153 114 119
0
250
500
750
1000
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Upper Sprague River at Gage #11497500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim Preliminary ODFW 74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Upper Sprague River at Gage #11497500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim Preliminary ODFW 74-97 Median
Median Historical Flows Sprague River at Gage #11501000
287 337 392 379 488
887
1212985
472269 200 235
0
500
1000
1500
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Sprague River at Gage #11501000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim Preliminary ODFW 74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Sprague River at Gage #11501000
0200400600800
100012001400
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim Preliminary ODFW 74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Upper Williamson near Rocky Ford (Gage # 11491400)
54 59 60 63 66 7187
8069
52 47 49
0
20
40
60
80
100
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
74-97 median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Upper Williamson near Rocky Ford (Gage # 11491400)
0
50
100
150
200
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim Preliminary ODFW 74-97 median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Williamson River above Sprague Confluence (#11502500-
#11501500)
311 343476 501 562
682579
430320 285 288 287
0
500
1000
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Williamson River above Sprague Confluence (#11502500-
#11501500)
0
500
1000
1500
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim ODFW Preliminary 74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Williamson River at Sprague Confluence (#11502500)
608 723924 912
1095
16681950
1496
811542 484 538
0
1000
2000
3000
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Preliminary 74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Williamson River at Sprague Confluence (#11502500)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim ODFW Preliminary 74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Klamath River near Keno, Gage #11509500
999 1022
151316491952
23682092
1135
461 401698
940
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
74-97 Median
Instream Claims/Permits vs Median Historical Flows Klamath River near Keno, Gage #11509500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug
Sept
cfs
Tribal Claim ODFW 74-97 Median
Model Accuracy
Model Checks•Diversions
Simulated versus Measured• Canal Data• Depleted Flow Data
• Annual Net Demand EstimatesSimulated versus Measured
•Average•Yearly Trends
•Annual Crop ETSimulated versus “Agrimet” Data
Diversions
•Simulated versus Measured Canal Data
Modoc Diversion Canal:Comparison of simulated monthly average versus miscellaneous daily measurements.
Average for Available Records
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Div
ersi
on (
cfs)
Modoc Simulated
1987 Modoc Diversions
01020304050607080
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
(cfs
)
Predicted Monthly Actual Single Measurement
1984 Modoc Diversions
01020304050607080
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
(cfs
)
Predicted Monthly Actual Single Measurement
1983 Modoc Diversions
01020304050607080
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
(cfs
)
Predicted Monthly Actual Single Measurement
1986 Modoc Diversions
01020304050607080
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
(cfs
)
Predicted Monthly Actual Single Measurement
1985 Modoc Diversions
01020304050607080
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
(cfs
)
Predicted Monthly Actual Single Measurement
1981 Modoc Diversions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
(cfs
)
Predicted (Monthly) Actual (Single Measurement)
1980 Modoc Diversions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
(cfs
)
Predicted (Monthly) Actual (Single Measurement)
Summary for monthly simulated versus daily measured diversions for Modoc Canal
• When looking at the average simulated diversions versus daily measurements for Modoc canal, the model results appear reasonable.
• However, when looking at particular months (e.g. Sept., 1980) the deviation from the daily measurements increases. This is to be expected and is probably typical for modeled areas. This is one reason why the model results are shown as averages over different year types (wet, average, dry).
Summary (continued)
• There are certain inherent limitations when comparing monthly average flows to a single discharge measurements (i.e., does the single measurement reflect average diversions for the month). These limitations lessen the certainty of the comparison.
• There are certain influences on irrigation that cannot be modeled. (i.e. connective rainstorms, headgate and ditch problems, etc.)
Diversions
•Simulated versus Measured Depleted Flows
Wood River 91-93:Inflows from tributaries calculated
from miscellaneous records.
Demands estimated using previously described method.
Outflows taken from BOR gage data.
Average Measured vs. Simulated Flows of Wood R (4/1991-12/1993)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Month
cfs
Simulated Flows Measured Flows
Wood River
0100200300400500600700
cfs
Simulated Flow Zero Demand Flow
Measured Flow
Wood River
0100200300400500600700
cfs
Simulated Flow Zero Demand Flow Measured Flow
Wood River
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
10 19
93
11 19
93
12 19
93
1 199
3
2 199
3
3 199
3
4 199
3
5 199
3
6 199
3
7 199
3
8 199
3
9 199
3
10 19
94
cfs
Simulated Flow Zero Demand Flow Measured Flow
Summary for monthly simulated versus measuredflows for Wood River.
• When looking at the average simulated versus measured flows, the model results appear reasonable.
• When looking at individual years, the model results appear reasonable
• As in the Modoc diversion check, the deviation between simulated and measured flows for a particular month is greater than the average.
Annual Net Demand Estimates
Simulated average annual demand above Klamath Lakeversus measured average annual demand in the Project.
• Demand is normalized by acreage (ac-ft/ac).
Annual Average Consumptive Demand (ac-ft/ac)
1.52
1.84
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
(ac-
ft/a
c)
Estimated Above Klamath Lake Historical Net Demand In Project
Annual Consumptive Demand (ac-ft/ac)
0
1
2
319
74
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
(ac-
ft/a
c)
Estimated Net Demand above Klamath Lake Historical Project Demand
Summary for net demand comparison above and below Klamath Lake.
• The net demand estimate above Klamath Lake is comparable to net demands from gage data in the project area.
• The net demands trends above Klamath Lake follow trends in the project and reflects usage in response to climate conditions.
Annual Crop ET
• Simulated annual crop ET versus “Agrimet” data in Lakeview.
Simulated Net ET above Klamath Lake vs ET from LakeView Agrimet Station
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Net
ET
(in
)
Simulated LakeView
Summary for crop ET comparison.
• The ET estimate above Klamath Lake is comparable to ET values at Agrimet sites located in a similar climate.
Additional Model Runs
1) Subordinate tribal claims to all pre 1905 claims.
2) Subordinate tribal claims to all existing uses.
3) Use ODFW instream values for all tribal claims.
3) Raise the lake capacity by a foot.