kingdom of thailand bond market development
DESCRIPTION
Kingdom of Thailand Bond Market DevelopmentTRANSCRIPT
$ 6 Bil
20
30
50
OCTOBER 2012
3
10
7
5
Kingdom of Thailand Bond Market Development
P/N
P/N
P/N
9 yr A T M
SB
ILB
SB
GOVT Debt Folio
S u s t a i n a b i l i t y
50% 20% 30%
15
ILB
$ 3 Bil
O u t s t a n d i n g S i z e
ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LI NKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIP LINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC D EBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PD DF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT B OND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKETDEVELOPM ENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATIO N-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DI SCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBI LC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOP MENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLAT ION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PU BILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONE ER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINET COMMMITM ENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMEN T OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATIO N BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVE LOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION IN FLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FI SCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMEN TS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND P IONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMM ITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGE MENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDI CATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATIO N INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BON D FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVE MENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BO ND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND ACHIEVEMENTS PUBIL C DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE This booklet is produced and printed in-house by Bond Market Development Bureau Public Debt Management Office Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
This booklet can be downloaded at www.pdmo.go.th e-book
A. Evolution of Bond Market Development (1995 – Present)
B. Building up of Benchmark Bond (FY2007 - FY2012)
C. Bond Supply FY2013 + Funding Needs FY2013 - FY2015
D. Well-Developed Bond Market Improved Government Debt Profile Dramatically
2
12
6
19
• 1997 Asian Financial Crisis The Rude Awakening
• Thai Bond Market Has Grown Strongly and Rapidly for More than a Decade
• Innovation of Government’s Debt Securities
• Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market
• PDMO Revised the Strategies of Benchmark Bond Issuance in 3 Ways
• Keep Our Word to Get Investors Confidence for the Plan Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget Uncertainty
• Key Success Indicators of Benchmark Bond Liquidity
• Market’s Favorite Benchmark Bond
• FY 2013 Total Funding Needs (by Bills) 1,028,219 THB mil.
• FY 2013 Total Fund Raising (by Instruments) 1,095,219 THB mil.
• FY 2013 Benchmark Bond (3-5-7-10-15-20-30-50 tenors) 525,000 THB mil.
• FY 2013’Q1 Government Bond Auction Schedule 150,500 THB mil.
• Fund Raising Strategies Building Benchmark Bond to Stabilize Yield Curve Segmenting Investors Base to Diversify Dependency Risk
•Next Phase of Inflation Linked Bond Creating Liquidity & Extending Yield Curve
• Full Capacity of Government Funding Instruments (FY 2013) 1,150,000 THB Mil (equiv. 40,000 USD Bil)
• Systematic Benchmark Bond Issuance Lengthened ATM by 3 ½ years Lowered cost by 30 basis points Enhanced fixed-float Ratio Reduced bunching risk
Domestic Bond Market Development
FIDF Decree passed : reduced fiscal burden by 70,000 MB a year (though Public Debt remains unchanged)
PDDF activated : restructuring of FIDF’s 340,122 MB saved over 7,000 MB a year & enhanced overall FIDF portfolio profile
CGIF activated : to enable investment-grade ASEAN+3 issuers to access foreign currency bond markets
Founding 13 MOF-outright PD : upgrading PD duties & privileges to actively play role as market makers
Electronic Retail Savings Bond : to promote savings society & to diversify Government funding instruments
FY 2012 HIGHLIGHTS
23
ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LI NKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIP LINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC D EBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PD DF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT B OND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKETDEVELOPM ENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATIO N-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DI SCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBI LC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOP MENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLAT ION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PU BILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONE ER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINET COMMMITM ENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMEN T OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATIO N BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVE LOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION IN FLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FI SCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMEN TS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND P IONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMM ITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGE MENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDI CATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATIO N INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BON D FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVE MENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BO ND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND ACHIEVEMENTS PUBIL C DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE 01
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
A. Evolution of Bond Market Development (1995 – Present)
• 1997 Asian Financial Crisis The Rude Awakening
• Thai Bond Market Has Grown Strongly and Rapidly for More than a Decade
• Innovation of Government’s Debt Securities
• Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market
02
2011-12201020092008 FY 2013
30-yearBenchmark Bond
10-yearInflation Linked Bond
12-year and 18-year
Fixed-ratePromissory Note
5-year
Step-upSavings Bond
3-yearElectronic Retail
Savings Bond
4-yearFloating Rate Bond
April 23nd 2008
FY
50-yearBenchmark Bond
July 15th 2009
6-year
Step-upSavings Bond
July 27th 2009
June 7th 2010
December 22nd 2010
July 11th 2011
September 12th 2011
March 2th 2011
FY 2013 Domestic Bond Market DevelopmentPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• To Enhance Liquidity • To Broaden Investor Base • To Strengthen Fiscal Sustainability
Q1
Q2
H2
3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2012
(Ju
n)
Bank Loan /GDP Equity/GDP Bond Market / GDP
< 1y 2-3y 3-5y 6-10y 11-50y
62%
33%
5%
14%
22%
17% 26% 21%
Bond Market Cap. = 8.2 THB Trillion GOVT Bond = 3.1 THB Trillion
Asian Fin. Crisis
128%
24%
12%
90%
84%
71%
Baht Bond
Corp. Bond
SOE Bond
BOT Bond
GOVT Bond
1%
19%
7%
35%
38%
Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer% Share of GDP
2.9 THB Trillion
3.1 THB Trillion
Maturity Profile
BOT vs GOVT Bond
BOT
MOF
BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 7yrs 6mths
$280 Bil. (Aug 2012)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
($100 bil)
($280 Bil.) ($100 Bil.)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2012
(Ju
n)
Bank Loan /GDP Equity/GDP Bond Market / GDP
1997 Asian Financial Crisis The Rude AwakeningPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Asian Fin. Crisis
128%
24%
12%
90%
84%
% Share of GDP
8.2 THB Trillion31 August 2012
71%
Balanced
4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
2
4
6
8
10
201
2 (
Au
g)
% o
f G
DP
71%
Post Crisis – 2000 : Volume Oriented Bond Market Capitalisation tripled Government Bonds
Outstanding grew by 50 times Government Bond Market
Share jumped from 3% in 1997to 44% in 2000
2007 – 2010 : Development Oriented Regular Benchmark Issuance New Product Development Regular Market Dialogue
with BoT and PDs
Pre-Crisis- Illiquid Bond Market- Absence of Benchmark Bond- Dominated by SoE’s Bonds
Next Step 2011-13:
(Market Deepening Oriented) 50-yr Bond, ILB, Electronic Retail Bond Upgrade PD Privileges Regional Linkage (CGIF) Amortised Bond Bond Switching & Bond Consolidation
The Thai Bond Market has Developed Rapidly and EfficientlyThe Thai Bond Market Has Developed Rapidly and Efficiently TH
B T
rilli
on
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• Allow both issuer and investors to improve their portfolio
• Larger outstanding size + Less bond series more liquidity in the secondary market
• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments Promote the government’s fiscal discipline
FY2007 – FY2013 Innovation of GOV’T Debt Securities
FY 2
00
7-1
0FY
20
11
• Broaden investor base – Retail investors• Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond
• Increase floating debt ratio of Total Government Debt Portfolio 10% to 18%*• Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)
• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity of Total Government Debt Portfolio 5yrs 7mths to 7yrs 6mths • Meet Long-term investors’ demand
FY 2
01
2-2
01
3
PDDF Activated(Public Debt Restructuring
and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund)
UpgradePD Privileges
Baht Bond
CGIF Activated(Credit Guarantee and
Investment Facility)
Step-up Savings Bond
Floating Rate Bond
30-yr Benchmark Bond
• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase / Offer throughout the year• Develop the retail bond into an electronic form Scripless System• Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches
• Strong anti-inflationary signal• Deepen the Development of the Bond market
• 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies
• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity
• 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)50-yr Benchmark Bond
Electronic Retail Savings Bond
10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)
• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors• Non-Benchmark tenorsFixed Rate Promissory Note
Bond Switching & Consolidation
Amortised Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
From 2007 - 2012
15-yr ILB
5
• 81 percent of Thailand’s debt securities were issued by Government, Central bank and State-owned EnterprisesIssuers
• 98 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment GradeCredit Rating
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor typesInvestors
Thailand Bond Market(Classified by Issuers)
State Agencies Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
Thailand Bond Market(Classified by Credit Rating)
Central Bank
35%
Non-rated2%
BBB
1%A
7%AA
4%
AAA
4%
SOEs
7%
Government
38%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
32%
DepositoryCorporation
39%
Householdand
Non-profit
NR10%
CB 10%
Source : CB (30 June 2012)
Government
38%
Central Bank
35%
SOEs
7%
Private Sector
19%
Source : ThaiBMA (31 August 2012)
9%
Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market
Source : ThaiBMA (31 August 2012)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Baht Bond1%
6
• PDMO Revised the Strategies of Benchmark Bond Issuance in 3 Ways
• Keep Our Word to Get Investors Confidence for the Plan Firm Committed
Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget Uncertainty
• Key Success Indicators of Benchmark Bond Liquidity
• Market’s Favorite Benchmark Bond
B. Building up of Benchmark Bond (FY2007 - FY2012)Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
7
FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13
FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13
2550 ต ต ด ,
I. Reduce Auction Frequency from Once a Week to Every Other Month(to Create Even Distribution of the Benchmark Bond Supply over the Year)
PDMO Revised the Strategy of Benchmark Bond Issuance in 3 ways (FY2007-FY2013)
III. Increase Outstanding Size(by Re-opening)
II. Increase Auction Size
40,000
4,000
Unit : THB Mil
Unit : THB Mil
50,000-80,000
12,000-15,000
Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs
Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs
80,000-100,000
100,000-120,000
100,000-120,000
120,000-150,000
150,000-200,000
6,000-8,000
8,000-10,000
10,000-12,000
15,000-20,000
15,000-20,000
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
500 -700 Mil.USD
5-7 Bil.USD
8
31
0,0
00
60
,00
0
17
0,0
00
28
1,0
00
26
1,1
71
30
9,8
26
13
1,0
00
82
,23
3
15
4,0
00
32
1,1
71
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Benchmark Bond Non Benchmark Bond Savings Bond T-Bill (Outstanding) Others
Plan Actual
Benchmark Bond Non Benchmark Bond Savings Bond T-Bill (Outstanding) Others
Plan Actual
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark BondRegardless of Budget uncertainty
Higher government
funding needs due to
Stimulus Package
approx.+250,000 THB Mil.
FY2009
Lower Borrowing needs
due to Economic Recovery
approx. -160,000 THB Mil.
FY2010
Total Funding needs
increased from:
420,000 THB Mil. to
670,000 THB Mil.
(+59%)
Total Funding needs
decreased from:
800,000 THB Mil to
640,000 THB Mil
(-20%)
THB Mil.
+2%+170%
+33%
+40%
+86%
+118%
-51%
-45%
0% +8%
Treasury Balance = 417,166 THB Mil.
Treasury Balance = 278,694 THB Mil.
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
THB Mil.
34
9,5
00
95
,00
0
-
20
4,0
00
9,0
00
19
0,5
14
45
,00
0
17
7,7
70
33
9,9
00
70
,00
0
1,0
75
12
5,6
91
40
,00
0
54
,01
4
34
,60
0
14
9,1
10
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
BenchmarkBond
NonBenchmark
Bond
Savings Bond T-Bill(Outstanding)
ILB Float P/N Fixed P/N Bank Loan(Outstanding)
Plan Actual
33
0,0
00
19
9,1
10
10
0,0
00
30
,00
0
60
,00
0
12
5,1
22
45
,00
0
40
0,0
00
34
5,7
51
11
0,8
50
37
,35
9
64
,65
9
52
,18
0
12
0,2
31
88
,24
9
30
,03
0
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
BenchmarkBond
NonBenchmark
Bond
Savings Bond T-Bill(Outstanding)
ILB Float P/N Fixed P/N Bank Loan(Outstanding)
Plan Actual
FY2012
-44%
+5%
Treasury Balance = N/A
+116%-92%-4%
-13%+96%
Lower-than-expected
Disbursement
approx. -390,000 THB Mil.
Total Funding needs
decreased from:
1,140,000 THB Mil to
750,000 THB Mil
(-34%)
Total Funding needs
decreased from:
700,000 THB Mil to
450,000 THB Mil
(- 36%)
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark BondRegardless of Budget uncertainty
FY2011
Treasury Balance = 510,180 THB Mil.
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office
Higher than expected
Revenue collection
approx. -250,000 THB Mil.
-3%
+344%-26%
-16%-38% -72% -23%
-63%
THB Mil.
THB Mil.
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(Aug)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(Aug)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(Aug)
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 F
1. Trading Volume 2. Turnover Ratio3. Demand Concentration 4. Auction Price
75%
84%
76%77%
80%
14.713.712.8
7.5
+1.2 bps
+1.4 bps
-0.4 bps
+3.2 bps
7%
FY2008-FY2012 Key Success Indicators
5-yr Benchmark Tenor : Highest Secondary Trading Volume in
every year (accounted for 25% of total trading volume)
Top 10 Gov’t Bond Series – Accounted for 90% of all Gov’t Bond trading in Secondary Trading Volume
Well developed Benchmark Bond pays off : Even with greater size of issuance, the cost of funding is still at market rate
Unit: Billion USD
27%
20%
28%
20%
Unit: % share of Market Trading Volume
Unit: % share of Market Trading Volume
5 yr Benchmark Bond : Higher Turnover Ratio
LB15DA
LB155A
LB145B
LB133A
LB133A
9
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
18%
LB176A
1.5
3.12.4
4.2
2.8
4.0
90%
+0.9 bps
16.5
5-yr 5-yr 5-yr 5-yr 5-yr
9
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(Aug)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(Aug)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12(Aug)
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 F
1. Trading Volume 2. Turnover Ratio3. Demand Concentration 4. Auction Price
75%
84%
76%77%
80%
14.713.712.8
7.5
+1.2 bps
+1.4 bps
-0.4 bps
+3.2 bps
7%
FY2008-FY2012 Key Success Indicators
5-yr Benchmark Tenor : Highest Secondary Trading Volume in
every year (accounted for 25% of total trading volume)
Top 10 Gov’t Bond Series – Accounted for 90% of all Gov’t Bond trading in Secondary Trading Volume
Well developed Benchmark Bond pays off : Even with greater size of issuance, the cost of funding is still at market rate
Unit: Billion USD
27%
20%
28%
20%
Unit: % share of Market Trading Volume
Unit: % share of Market Trading Volume
5 yr Benchmark Bond : Higher Turnover Ratio
LB15DA
LB155A
LB145B
LB133A
LB133A
9
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
18%
LB176A
1.5
3.12.4
4.2
2.8
4.0
90%
+0.9 bps
16.5
5-yr 5-yr 5-yr 5-yr 5-yr
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
0
50000
100000
150000
LB17
6A
LB21
DA
LB15
5A
LB15
DA
LB19
3A
LB13
3A
LB27
DA
LB14
5B
LB17
OA
ILB
217A
LB16
5A
LB13
7A
LB32
6A
LB14
5A
LB19
6A
LB12
NA
LB61
6A
LB23
6A
LB41
6A
LB25
DA
LB18
3B
LB16
NA
LB14
3A
LB21
3A
LB29
6A
LB24
DA
LB23
3A
LB14
DA
LB31
6A
LB28
3A
LB15
7A
LB16
7A
LB19
1A
LB17
5A
LB24
4A
LB17
1A
LB13
OA
LB26
7A
LB19
8A
LB18
3A
LB19
DA
LB40
6A
LB21
4A
LB22
NA
LB38
3A
LB39
6A
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
4
All 3-5-7-10 on-the-run Benchmark Bond Has Turnover Ratio between 2.5 – 4.0(while market turnover ratio = 1)
Turnover Ratio
Current Outstanding ≤ 50,000 MB
Outstanding ≥ 100,000 MB
LB193A
LB15DA
LB155A
LB176A
LB21DA
Current Outstanding 50,000-100,000 MB
3.1
2.6 2.6
FY2012 Market’s Favorites
Classified by Turnover Ratio
5 710 3 3
15 20 305010
2.5
Turnover Ratio 0.2 – 1.0
3
2
1
Nearly No Trading
4.0
FY 2012 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
10
FY-to-date Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market (Oct 11-Sept 12)
4
10
0
50000
100000
150000
LB1
55
A
LB1
5D
A
LB1
45
B
LB2
1D
A
LB1
76
A
LB1
96
A
LB1
33
A
ILB
21
7A
LB1
83
B
LB1
7O
A
LB1
93
A
LB2
13
A
LB2
83
A
LB1
6N
A
LB1
98
A
LB4
16
A
LB1
67
A
LB1
37
A
LB2
33
A
LB2
96
A
LB2
67
A
LB2
4D
A
LB1
91
A
LB1
4D
A
LB2
36
A
LB1
75
A
LB2
5D
A
LB3
16
A
LB6
16
A
LB2
14
A
LB1
71
A
LB1
43
A
LB1
9D
A
LB1
57
A
LB2
7D
A
LB1
2N
A
LB3
26
A
LB2
44
A
LB1
65
A
LB2
2N
A
LB1
83
A
LB1
3O
A
LB4
06
A
LB1
45
A
LB3
96
A
LB3
83
A
3 3 2 10 5 7 1 10 6 5 7 9 16 4 7
Ou
tsta
nd
ing
size
(TH
B M
il.)
% %
Top 5(>100,000)
Next 10(50,000-100,000)
TTM (Year)
3
20
5
30
7
10
15
LB155A
LB15DA
LB21DA
ILB217A
LB176A
LB416A
LB193A
LB616A
LB27DA
LB165A
4
FRB
ILB
TOP 5 > 100,000 THB Mil in Size (70% of Trading Volume)
50
3
LB326A
FY2012 Total GOVT Bond = 46 Series(2,2511,XXX THB Mil) Next 10 > 50,000 THB Mil in Size (20% of Trading Volume)
TOP 5
70%
Next 10 Bottom 30
20% 10%
FY-to-date Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market (Oct 11-Sept 12)
0 50 100
FY 2012 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
10
ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LI NKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIP LINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC D EBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PD DF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT B OND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKETDEVELOPM ENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATIO N-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DI SCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBI LC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOP MENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLAT ION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PU BILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONE ER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINET COMMMITM ENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMEN T OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATIO N BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVE LOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION IN FLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FI SCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMEN TS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND P IONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMM ITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGE MENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDI CATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATIO N INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BON D FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVE MENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BO ND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND ACHIEVEMENTS PUBIL C DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE 11
12
C. Bond Supply FY2013 + Funding Needs FY2013 - FY2015
• FY 2013 Total Funding Needs (by Bills) 1,013,546 THB mil.
• FY 2013 Total Fund Raising (by Instruments) 1,090,076 THB mil.
• FY 2013 Benchmark Bond (3-5-7-10-15-20-30-50 tenors) 525,000 THB mil.
• FY 2013’Q1 Government Bond Auction Schedule 150,500 THB mil.
• Fund Raising Strategies Building Benchmark Bond to Stabilize Yield Curve
Segmenting Investors Base to Diversify Dependency Risk
•Next Phase of Inflation Linked Bond Creating Liquidity & Extending Yield Curve
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
13
232,575 200,666
344,084 300,000
200,000
100,000
25,000 52,000
157,503
199,239
219,222
139,171 113,014
340,122 166,543
129,124
75,171
260,000
58,940 20,838
10,000
340,000
500
49,500
(250,000)
-
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013F FY2014F FY2015F
• Deficit 300,000• Deficit Restructuring 157,503• FIDF Restructuring 166,543• Water 340,000• Insurance 49,500
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
DeficitDeficit Restructuring
FIDF RestructuringTKKTKK Restructuring Water Management Decree
Insurance Decree
FY2013 Total Funding Needs(By Bills)
656,746 424,620 694,706 1,013,546 528,363 415,234
THB Mil.
AnnualFunding Needs(THB Mil.)
1,013,546 THB Mil.
TENTATIVE
232,575 200,666
344,084 300,000
200,000
100,000
25,000 52,000
157,503
199,239
219,222
139,171 113,014
340,122 166,543
129,124
75,171
260,000
58,940 20,838
10,000
340,000
500
49,500
18,00057,000
124,254
28,3095,782
82,230
117,600 128,272 19,530
(250,000)
-
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013F FY2014F FY2015F
• Deficit 300,000• Deficit Restructuring 157,503• FIDF Restructuring 166,543• Water 340,000• Insurance 49,500• Pre-Mature FIDF 57,000• Pre-Mature TKK 19,530
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
DeficitDeficit Restructuring
FIDF RestructuringTKKTKK Restructuring Water Management Decree
Insurance Decree
Pre-Mature TKK RestructuringPre-Mature FIDF ConversionT-Bill Conversion (Bill to Bond)
FY2013 Total Fund Raising Plan(By Bills)
656,746 424,620 694,706 1,013,546 528,363 415,234
863,230 570,529 846,760 1,090,076 528,363 415,234
THB Mil.
Annual Funding Needs (THB Mil.)
Annual Fund Raising (THB Mil.)
1,090,076 THB Mil.
TENTATIVE
14
10
0,0
00
99
,99
4
11
1,1
10
90
,87
2
44
,00
0
35
,00
0
35
,00
0
53
,43
6
41
,20
5
90
,00
0
90
,00
0
80
,00
0
10
,00
0
85
,00
0
50
,00
0
50
,00
0
40
,00
0
40
00
0
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
To Reach 100,000 THB Mil. in Outstanding Amount
by the End of FY2013
ALL FY2013 Benchmark Bond Series(3 – 5 – 7 – 10 – 15 - 20 – 30 - 50 yr + 10 yr ILB)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Ou
tsta
nd
ing
size
(TH
B M
il.)
FY 2013 Indicative Benchmark Bond
Plan-to-issue Amount in FY2013
Outstanding Amount as of the beginning of FY2013
LB176A
LB196A
LB21DA
LB236A
LB27DA
LB326A
LB616A
LB416A
5 7
10
3
15 20 50100,000
30ILB10
ILB217A
TENTATIVE
(3.3 bil.USD)
FY 2013 Total Fund Raising Plan(by Instruments and Bills) 1,090,076 THB Mil.
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of ThailandLatest Version
Restructuring 157,503
Deficit 300,000
FIDF 166,543
Water Decree 340,000
Insurance Decree 49,500
Float P/N 31,503
45
7,5
03
SB 6,000
By Bills By Instruments
Fixed P/N 40,000
Benchmark Bond (5 - 7 - 15 - 20 - 30 - 50 yr)
340,000
Pre-Mature FIDF 57,000 Pre-Mature TKK 19,530
ILB 10 yr 10,00022
3,5
43
Other 44,530
ILB 15 yr 40,000NEW
Bank Loan 6 mth – 4 yr
Savings Bond
ILB
Non-Benchmark
(Mini-Tender)
P/N
Global Bond(Now – June 2013)
Benchmark Bond (3 & 10 yr)
185,000
Float P/N 3,543
Unit:
THB
Mil.
03-O
ct-1
2-
10
-Oct
-12
-
17-O
ct-1
2-
24
-Oct
-12
11,50
0
11
,500
31-O
ct-1
29,0
00
8,000
17
,000
07-N
ov-1
210
,000
12,00
0
22
,000
14-N
ov-1
213
,500
7,500
21
,000
21-N
ov-1
213
,000
10,00
0
23
,000
28-N
ov-1
27,0
00
7,000
05-D
ec-1
2-
12
-Dec
-12
13,00
0
9,0
00
22,00
0
19
-Dec
-12
19,00
0
8,0
00
27,00
0
26
-Dec
-12
-
Tota
l30
,500
13,00
0
10
,000
25,00
0
13
,500
18,00
0
10
,000
15,50
0
15
,000
150,5
00
Coup
on3.2
5%3.8
75%
1.20%
3.65%
3.625
%3.5
8%3.7
75%
3.80%
4.85%
Mat
urity
Dat
e16
-Jun-
1713
-Jun-
1914
-Jul-2
117
-Dec
-21
16-Ju
n-23
17-D
ec-2
725
-Jun-
3214
-Jun-
4117
-Jun-
61หม
ายเห
ต :
1. LB
176A
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลเพ
อการ
ปรบโ
ครงส
รางห
น (พ
.ร.ก.
ชวยเ
หลอก
องทน
เพอก
ารฟน
ฟฯ ระ
ยะทส
อง) ใ
นปงบ
ประม
าณ พ
.ศ. 2
556
ครงท
1 (R
e-op
en พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลเพ
อการ
ปรบโ
ครงส
รางห
น (พ
.ร.ก.
ชวยเ
หลอก
องทน
เพอก
ารฟน
ฟฯ ระ
ยะทส
อง)
ในปง
บประ
มาณ
พ.ศ.
2555
ครง
ท 2)
2. LB
196A
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลเพ
อการ
บรหา
รหน
ในปง
บประ
มาณ
พ.ศ.
2556
ครง
ท 2
(Re-o
pen
พนธบ
ตรรฐ
บาล
ในปง
บประ
มาณ
พ.ศ.
2552
ครง
ท 13
)
3. ILB
217A
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลปร
ะเภท
อตรา
ดอกเ
บยแป
รผนต
ามกา
รเปลย
นแปล
งของ
เงนเฟ
อ ใน
ปงบป
ระมา
ณ พ
.ศ. 2
556
ครงท
1 (R
e-op
en พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลปร
ะเภท
อตรา
ดอกเ
บยแป
รผนต
ามกา
รเปลย
นแปล
งของ
เงนเฟ
อ ใน
ปงบป
ระมา
ณ พ
.ศ. 2
554)
4. LB
21DA
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าล ใน
ปงบป
ระมา
ณ พ.
ศ. 25
56 ค
รงท
3 (Re
-ope
n พน
ธบตร
รฐบา
ล ใน
ปงบป
ระมา
ณ พ.
ศ. 25
54 ค
รงท
4)
5. LB
236A
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลเพ
อการ
ปรบโ
ครงส
รางห
น (พ
.ร.ก.
ชวยเ
หลอก
องทน
เพอก
ารฟน
ฟฯ ระ
ยะทส
อง) ใ
นปงบ
ประม
าณ พ
.ศ. 2
556
ครงท
2 (R
e-op
en พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลเพ
อการ
ปรบโ
ครงส
รางห
น (พ
.ร.ก.
ชวยเ
หลอก
องทน
เพอก
ารฟน
ฟฯ ระ
ยะทส
อง)
ในปง
บประ
มาณ
พ.ศ.
2553
ครง
ท 1)
6. LB
27DA
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าล ใน
ปงบป
ระมา
ณ พ.
ศ. 25
56 ค
รงท
1 (Re
-ope
n พน
ธบตร
รฐบา
ล ใน
ปงบป
ระมา
ณ พ.
ศ. 25
55 ค
รงท
3)
7. LB
326A
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าล ใน
ปงบป
ระมา
ณ พ.
ศ. 25
56 ค
รงท
4 (Re
-ope
n พน
ธบตร
รฐบา
ลเพอ
การป
รบโค
รงสร
างหน
(พ.ร.
ก. ให
อ านา
จกระ
ทรวง
การค
ลงกเ
งนฯ
พ.ศ.
2552
) ในป
งบปร
ะมาณ
พ.ศ.
255
5 คร
งท 1
)
8. LB
416A
= พ
นธบต
รรฐบ
าลเพ
อการ
บรหา
รหน
ในปง
บประ
มาณ
พ.ศ.
2556
ครง
ท 1
/ พนธ
บตรร
ฐบาล
ในปง
บประ
มาณ
พ.ศ.
2556
ครง
ท 5
(Re-o
pen
พนธบ
ตรรฐ
บาล
ในปง
บประ
มาณ
พ.ศ.
2554
ครง
ท 2)
LB61
6ATo
tal
Gove
rnm
ent B
ond
Auct
ion
Sche
dule
for Q
1/FY
2013
Auct
ion
date
LB17
6ALB
196A
ILB21
7ALB
21DA
LB23
6ALB
27DA
LB32
6ALB
416A
Excl
usi
vity
M
oF
Ou
trig
ht
PD
On
ly
Web
site
htt
p:/
/ww
w.p
dm
o.g
o.t
h/
15
Symbol Avg. Bidding Yield
(%) Change Yield (bp) Avg. Bid-Offer Spread (bp) Maturity TTM (yrs.)
T-BILL1M 2.923841 2 4 0.076712
T-BILL3M 3.024104 1 3 0.249315
T-BILL6M 3.046427 1 3 0.498630
T-BILL1Y 3.037068 2 3 1.000000
LB13OA 3.113636 0 5 17/10/2013 1.043836
LB143A 3.147273 0 6 05/03/2014 1.424658
LB145B 3.153636 0 3 12/05/2014 1.610959
LB145A 3.158182 0 4 14/05/2014 1.616438
LB14DA 3.173636 0 5 03/12/2014 2.172603
LB155A 3.171364 0 2 22/05/2015 2.638356
LB157A 3.194545 0 5 07/07/2015 2.764384
LB15DA 3.182727 0 3 11/12/2015 3.194520
LB167A 3.250909 0 5 27/07/2016 3.821918
LB16NA 3.270000 0 6 18/11/2016 4.134246
LB171A 3.304545 0 5 18/01/2017 4.301370
LB175A 3.311818 -1 5 26/05/2017 4.652055
LB176A 3.288182 -2 2 16/06/2017 4.709589
LB17OA 3.332727 -1 4 10/10/2017 5.027397
LB183A 3.404545 -1 6 07/03/2018 5.432877
LB183B 3.408182 -1 6 13/03/2018 5.449315
LB191A 3.467273 -1 6 12/01/2019 6.284932
LB193A 3.453636 -2 3 08/03/2019 6.435616
LB196A 3.481818 -3 5 13/06/2019 6.701370
LB198A 3.511818 -3 6 13/08/2019 6.868493
LB19DA 3.523636 -2 6 03/12/2019 7.175343
LB213A 3.544545 -2 6 31/03/2021 8.501369
LB214A 3.555455 -2 6 09/04/2021 8.526028
LB21DA 3.509091 -3 3 17/12/2021 9.216438
LB22NA 3.592727 -1 7 08/11/2022 10.109590
LB233A 3.631818 -1 6 13/03/2023 10.452050
LB236A 3.612727 -2 4 16/06/2023 10.712330
LB244A 3.698182 0 8 09/04/2024 11.528770
LB24DA 3.719091 -1 8 20/12/2024 12.227400
LB25DA 3.777273 -2 7 12/12/2025 13.205480
LB267A 3.797273 -2 7 07/07/2026 13.772600
LB27DA 3.812727 -2 7 17/12/2027 15.219180
LB283A 3.882727 -1 7 13/03/2028 15.457530
LB296A 3.926364 -1 7 22/06/2029 16.734250
LB316A 3.982727 0 7 20/06/2031 18.728770
LB326A 4.020909 0 7 25/06/2032 19.745200
LB383A 4.077273 0 8 13/03/2038 25.463010
LB396A 4.110909 0 8 13/06/2039 26.715070
LB406A 4.144545 1 8 22/06/2040 27.742470
LB416A 4.196364 0 10 14/06/2041 28.720550
LB616A 4.302727 -1 10 17/06/2061 48.742470
TTM (Yrs.) Yield (%)
0.08 2.92
0.25 3.02
0.50 3.05
1 3.04
2 3.17
3 3.19
4 3.26
5 3.33
6 3.45
7 3.52
8 3.54
9 3.52
10 3.58
11 3.64
12 3.71
13 3.77
14 3.80
15 3.81
16 3.90
17 3.93
18 3.96
19 3.99
20 4.02
21 4.03
22 4.04
23 4.05
24 4.06
25 4.07
26 4.09
27 4.12
28 4.16
29 4.20
30 4.20
31 4.21
32 4.21
33 4.22
34 4.22
35 4.23
36 4.24
37 4.24
38 4.25
39 4.25
40 4.26
41 4.26
42 4.27
43 4.27
44 4.28
45 4.28
46 4.29
47 4.29
48 4.30
Remark
1) The above yields are based upon average bids quoted by primary dealers .
2) Average bidding yields of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year T-bills are bond equivalent yield converted from average simple yields. 3) Spreads (bp) are differences bid and offer yields. 4) The cut-off time for daily quotation of T-bills and Government bonds is 16:00. 5) The highlighted rows are on-the-run benchmark bond.
FY2013 Indicative Benchmark Bond
16
17
Fund Raising Plan Strategies
FY 2013 Full Capacity* : 1,150,000 THB MilWell Diversified Investors Ensures Funding Needs
Potential Demandfor Gov’t Bond 2013
Outstanding of Foreign DebtEquiv. 47,000 THB Mil (1.4% of Gov’t Debt)
Commercial PapersSamurai bond 5 yr 20,000 Yen MilSamurai bond 7 yr 10,000 Yen MilMTN 40 USD Mil
Soft LoansJBIC 62,500 Yen MilADB 200 USD MilIBRD 63 USD MilOther 19 USD Mil
Equiv. 13,000 THB Mil Equiv. 34,000 THB Mil
• To diversify portfolio of government debt
• To keep the presence of KOT Bond (Kingdom of Thailand) in the foreign market
• To maintain KOT Bond as a reference benchmark yield for Thai private sector issuers
• To avoid crowding out effect on domestic bond market
(as of Jun 2012) Concerns : exchange rate risk / swap cost / natural hedging
* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
- Life Insurance - Pension Funds
SB
Bank loanFRB / LB
P/NLB
Depository Corporations
- Retail - Non-profit org.
Non-Residence
LB 5/10ILB
?
450
450
THB Bil.
200
Insurance and
Other Corporation
32%
DepositoryCorporation
39%
NR10%
CB 10%
Source : CB (30 June 2012)
9%
Householdand
Non-profit
3
5
710
15
20
30
50
LB 3 yr 150,000 THB Mil.
LB 5 yr 120,000 THB Mil.
LB 7 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 10 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 15 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 20 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 30 yr 30,000 THB Mil.
LB 50 yr 20,000 THB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
Savings Bond ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Promissory Note ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Inflation-Linked Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Bank Loan ~200,000 THB Mi (18%)
Benchmark Bond ~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)
Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil. * Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
• Building Benchmark Bond to Stabilized Yield Curve• Diversifying Investor Base to Reduce Dependency Risk
18
Next Phase of Inflation Linked Bond in FY2013• Enhance Liquidity of 10-yr• Extending Yield Curve to 15-yr• PDS’ Responsibilities As Market Marker
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
PDS’ RESPONSIBILITIES
FY2012
• Re-open the Existing Tenor (10-yr ILB : ILB217A)
• Put ILB Auction into Government
Regular Auction Table (Quarterly)
FY2013
• Re-open ILB217A to Build up to 100,000 THB Mil.
Source : Budget DeficitTiming : Dec 2012 – Feb 2013Tenor : 15 years
• Maintain portion of successful bid in primary market • Maintain portion of ILB trading in secondary market• Provide firm bid / ask spreads in secondary market
Source : Water DecreeTiming : Mar 2013 – Jun 2013Tenor
Option A Option BNew 5 years Re-open
ILB217A (7 years )
• Participate in the Primary Market• Provide Bid – Offer Price
• Continue to re-open ILB217A in Q1/FY’13 to build up outstanding size of 100,000 THB Mil.
• Build Up ILB new tenor to around 40,000 THB Mil. (Syndication & Auctions)
• Option A : Issue new tenor of ILB • Option B : Re-open the existing tenor
Keep Our Promise 10-yr ILB (ILB217A)
Extending Yield Curve New 15-yr ILB
Fund Raising Instrument for Water Decree• New 5-yr ILB• Top-up Existing Tenor
By June 2013(Q3/FY’13)
Up To 60,000 THB Mil.
Structure of Thai Inflation Linked Bond (Inaugural ILB, July 2011)
Capital Indexed Bond (with Principle Protection)Format
Every 6 monthsInterest Payment
Thai BahtCurrency
40,000 THB Mil. (1.3 bil USD equiv.)Programme Size
10 yearsTenor
3 monthsIndexation Lag
Headline CPIIndex
1.2Real Yield
CPIt /CPI0 (TBMA’s calculation)Index Ratio
BulletRepayment Method
15,000 MB
5,000 MB
20,000 MB
LocalInstitutions
Local Retail
ForeignInstitutions
Allocations
Next Step Enhance ILB liquidity
Subscription : approx. 1.6 times
Continuing Issuance
PD’s responsibility
FY 2012 : Develop regular annual auction plan (every quarter)FY 2012 : Top-up the existing tenor to enhance liquidity : 60,000 THB Mil. (2 USD Bil equiv.)
(15,000 THB Mil. each in Feb Apr Jun and Aug)FY 2013 : Issue other Benchmark tenors (5-15years ILBs)
FY 2012 : Maintain portion of successful bid in ILB primary marketFY 2013 : Maintain portion of ILB trading in secondary marketFY 2013 : Provide firm bid / ask spreads in secondary market
Enhance Liquidity
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Best Sovereign Bond 2011 : Asiamoney Awards
Best Thailand Deal 2011 : Asiamoney Awards Best Local Currency Bond 2011 : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Best Thailand Deal 2011 : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011 : IFRAsia Asia Awards Deal of the Year from Asia : Euro Money
Outstanding Issuer of the Year : Asset Asian Awards 2011 The Most Impressive Local Currency 2011 : Euroweek Asia
Deal of the Year 2011 : ThaiBMAMost Creative Issue 2011 : ThaiBMA
8 International AWARDS
+2 Domestic
AWARDS
19
D. Well-Developed Bond Market Improved Government Debt Profile
• Public Debt Outstanding (as of Dec 2011) = 4.8 THB Trillion (42% of GDP)
• Total GOV’T Debt (Direct + FIDF) = 3.46 THB Trillion (71% of Public Debt)
• Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) = 7yrs 6mths
• Average Cost = 4.4%
• Fixed : Float = 86 : 14
• Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically• Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) = 8yrs 9mths• Average Cost = 4.2%
• Fixed : Float Ratio = 87 : 13
• Maturity Distribution Profile = 50-20-30
• Full Capacity of All Government Funding Instruments (FY2013) 1,150,000 THB Mil
•Maturity Profile of GOV’T Funding Instruments (Strategic Framework)
• Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) = 9yrs• Fixed : Float = 70 : 30
• Maturity Distribution Profile = 50-30-20
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
020
Special Financial Institution Guaranteed Debt
5%
0.25 THB Trillion
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Jun 2012) = 4.8 THB Trillion (42% of GDP)
GOV’T Debt
47%
GOV’T Debt (for FIDF)
26%
1.25** THB Trillion
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
21%
1.03 THB Trillion
Components of Public Debt Units : THB Mil.
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF) 2,259,073**
2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 1,247,276**
3. Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt 1,028,750
4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 246,437
5. Autonomous Agency Debt (VP and EFPO) 10,000
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Jun 2012) 4,791,536*Including 47,275 THB Mil. of External Debt**Including 113,800 THB Mil. of Prefunding
2.26 THB Trillion
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Autonomous Agency Debt (VP and EFPO)
1%
0.01 THB Trillion
next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10yrs +next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10yrs +
(1) ATM Lengthened(2) Cost Lowered(3) Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio(4) Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved
GOV’T Direct Debt (1.87 THB Mil.) Profile Dramatically
Float 13%Float 10%
ATM
5yrs 3mths
ATM
8yrs 9mths
Avg. cost
4.5%
As of Dec 2007 As of Jun 2012
Average-Time-to-Maturity
LENGTHENED by 3 ½ yrs
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 30 bps .(While ATM Lengthened by 3 ½ yrs)
Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)
Avg. cost
4.2%
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009 Maturity Profile as of Jun 2012
Well-Distributed Maturity ProfileTarget Reached : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs
is less than 50% of Total Debt
61%
24% 15%
50%
20%30%
Fixed
87%
Fixed
90%
21
65
,00
0
58,4
40
39,8
36
162,
099
25,0
00
37,9
00
40,0
00
35,0
00
211,
023
98,3
20 64
,124
16,7
31
71,0
03
46,0
00
75
,00
0
86,8
00 69
,000
32,0
00
14,0
00
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
90,0
00
232,
003
20
1,7
70
21
9,2
22
157,
000
93,8
30
86,6
32
145,
994
96,1
10
76,7
00
32,5
00
47,0
00
88,9
50
50,0
00
41,9
00
6,50
0
5,00
0
5,50
0 20,0
00
47,4
36 27
,800
28,2
05
30,3
60
78,1
70
86,6
30
16,0
00
10,0
00
77,1
80
18
,90
0
43,0
00
15,7
00
23,0
00
8,00
0 4,74
7
58
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) = 7yrs 6mths
Average Cost = 4.4%
Fixed : Float = 86 : 14
Total GOV’T Debt = 3.46* THB Trillion
(71% of Public Debt)
ATM = 5yrs 4mths Avg. Cost = 4.8%
Fixed : Float = 81 : 19
FIDF 1 FIDF 3
GOV’T Debt (for FIDF) = 1.25* THB Trillion
Assumptions : 6 months BIBOR = 3.23%, 6 months Fixed Deposit Rate = 2.55%
Maturity Profile
As of Jun 2012
**Including 113,800 THB Mil. of Prefunding
ATM = 8yrs 9mths Avg. Cost = 4.2%
Fixed : Float = 87 : 13
GOV’T Debt (exclude FIDF) = 2.21*** THB Trillion
Budget Deficit TKK On-lending Loan Insurance Decree
TTM Fiscal Year
0000Maturity Profile
***Excluded 47,275 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand* Excluded 47,275 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
As of June 2012
TTM Fiscal Year
next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10yrs +
next 5 yrs year 6 - 10 10yrs +
30%20%
50%
5%
45%50%
10
,00
0
10
,00
0
30
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0 5
0,0
00
50
,00
0 1
00
,00
0
50
,00
0
50
,00
0
10
,00
0
90
,00
0
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
1 5 6 10 11 15 20 25 30 40 50
15
0,0
00
12
0,0
00
80
,00
0
80
,00
0
60
,00
0
60
,00
0
30
,00
0
20
,00
0
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
1 5 6 10 11 15 20 25 30 40 50
FY2012 Maturity Profile of GOV’T Funding Instruments
(Strategic Framework)(A) ATM = 9 yrs (B) Fixed : Float = 70 : 30
(C) Maturity Distribution Profile 50 - 30 - 20
30% (6-10 yrs)
350,000 THB Mil
Benchmark BondATM 10yrs 8mthsCost (Avg. past 3 yrs) +5 bpsFixed : Float 100 : 0
1510753 20 30 50
5,0
00
5,0
00
30
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0 5
0,0
00
50
,00
0 1
00
,00
0
50
,00
0
50
,00
0
10
,00
0
90
,00
0
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
1 5 6 10 11 15 20 25 30 40 50
Fixed P/N
P/N
ILB
FRB
Bank Loan
Savings Bond
20% (≥ 11 yrs)
220,000 THB Mil
Not-to-Collide with Benchmark Tenors
ATM 7yrs 2mthsCost (Avg. past 3 yrs) + 80 bpsFixed : Float 65 : 35
Alternative Instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand50% (≤ 5 yrs)
580,000 THB Mil
22
3
5
710
15
20
30
50
LB 3 yr 150,000 THB Mil.
LB 5 yr 120,000 THB Mil.
LB 7 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 10 yr 80,000 THB Mil.
LB 15 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 20 yr 60,000 THB Mil.
LB 30 yr 30,000 THB Mil.
LB 50 yr 20,000 THB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
Savings Bond ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Promissory Note ~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)
Inflation-Linked Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Bank Loan ~200,000 THB Mi (18%)
Benchmark Bond ~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)
Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil. * Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
($5 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($4 bil.)
($2 bil.)
($2 bil.)
($1 bil.)
($0.8 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($20 bil.)
($1.5 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($1.2 bil.)
($40 bil.)
($3 bil.)
($1.5 bil.)
($7 bil.)
($40 Bil.)
Funding Instruments
ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LI NKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIP LINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC D EBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PD DF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT B OND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKETDEVELOPM ENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATIO N-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DI SCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBI LC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOP MENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLAT ION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PU BILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONE ER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINET COMMMITM ENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMEN T OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATIO N BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVE LOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION IN FLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FI SCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMEN TS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND P IONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMM ITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGE MENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDI CATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATIO N INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BON D FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVE MENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BO ND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND ACHIEVEMENTS PUBIL C DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE
FIDF Decree passed : reduced fiscal burden by 70,000 MB a year (though
Public Debt remains unchanged)
PDDF activated : restructuring of FIDF’s 340,122 MB saved over 7,000 MB
a year & enhanced overall FIDF portfolio profile
CGIF activated : to enable investment-grade ASEAN+3 issuers to access
foreign currency bond markets
Founding 13 MOF-outright PD : upgrading PD duties & privileges to
actively play role as market makers
Electronic Retail Savings Bond : to promote savings society & to diversify
Gov’t funding instruments
23
FY 2012 HIGHLIGHTS
FIDF3 = 693,327MB FIDF3 = 669,857MB
263,178
FIDF2 = 112,000MB
-
13,789
FIDF1 = 500,000MB
FIDF1 = 463,275MB
393,535
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
FIDF principle debt at initial period (FY'1997,2002)
FIDF principle debt outstanding
at end of FY'2012
cummulative interest payment at end of FY'2012
GOV'T Debt 2,215,727MB
GOVT Debt (for FIDF)
1,133,973MB
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
1,033,898MB
Special Financial Institutions
Guaranteed Debt
195,230MB
Other State Agencies , 8,820
24
FIDF Decree Passed PDDF Activated
MB
MB
MB
MB
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
What Can We Do with 70,000 THB Mil. A Year?
% Shares of Investment Budget to Budget Expenditures
41%
19%
13%
Option 1 :
Increase Investment
Budget
Option 2 :
Increase Principle
RepaymentBudget
10%
5%
% Share of Allocated Principle Repayment to Budget Expenditures (Paid Debt)
% Share of Unallocated Principle Repayment to Budget Expenditures (Rollovered Debt)
PA
ID
UN
PA
ID
% Share of Total Budget Expenditures
% Share of Total Budget Expenditures
Option 1 : To Strengthen Economic GrowthOption 2 : To Strengthen Fiscal Discipline
25%
3%3%
8%
0.06%
3%
7%
5%
2.3%1%
2.6%
25
50
,00
0
39
,12
5
35
,87
0
46
,53
7
42
,95
5
58
,23
3
57
,71
9
66
,91
7
69
,21
7
69
,67
9
66
,48
5
68
,90
7
66
,54
0
68
,42
4
0%
5%
10%
15%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
2013F
FIDF Decree PassedInterest Payment Reduced ~70,000 THB Mil. a Year
(Although Public Debt Unchanged, Fiscal Room Freed up by 5%)
% Share of Total Budget ExpendituresTHB Mil.
Interest Payment for FIDF Debt
Interest Payment for GOV’T Debt
Principle Repayment for GOV’T Debt
% Share of Allocated Principle & Interest to Budget Expenditures
9%
12%
FIDF Interest Payment
7%
5%
4%
8%
11%
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
26
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Restructuring FIDF 340,122 THB Mil. * Saved Over 7000 MIL THB a Year( 340,122THB Mil. = 30% of 1,142,101 THB Mil. Total FIDF Debt Outstanding)
LB11NA
89,099
SB129A
206,023
LB133A 40,000
R-bill 3M 19,000
R-bill 6M 52,350
FRB 4 yrs 14,450
LB 5 yrs 46,000
LB 7 yrs 20,000
P/N 6 yrs 39,000
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt management Office
~3.01%
~3.09%
~3.08%
~3.625%
SB128A 5,000
4.5%
5.4%
R-bill 3M 23,245
R-bill 6M 48,105
FRB 4 yrs 14,450
LB 5 yrs 46,000
LB 7 yrs 20,000
P/N 6 yrs 39,000
P/N 6 yrs 50,099
R-bill 6M 7,223
LB 5 yrs 20,000
LB 7 yrs 15,000
FRB 4 yrs 10,000
P/N 6 yrs 18,000
LB 7 yrs 12,000
R-bill 6M 5,000
~3.63%
~3.45%
Saved ~2.3%(7 THB Bil. a Year)
~3.4%
PDDF Activated
PDDF : Public Debt Restructuring and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund
6.1%
5.375%
LB 10 yrs 12,000
~3.25%
Total Pre-Funding : 190,800MB
Positive Carry = 57 MB
Total Pre-Funding : 190,800MB Result : 64 MB (3bps)
(4,200 – 4,136)
~5.7%(avg. cost)
*Excluded 18,000 Pre-Mature FIDF Debt Restructuring in 2012
LATEST VERSRION
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
34
0,1
22
64,970
129,124
75,171 95,014
55,000
100,000
54,800 37,900
109,000
32,000 49,000
23,245
60,328
66,000
47,000
12,000
107,099
24,450
Strategies in managing FIDF’s 340,122MB* in 2012
*Excluded 18,000MB of Pre-Mature FIDF Debt Restructuring in 2012
Relatively Shorter.. to Allow FlexibilityPartially Float.. to Reflect Market RatePartially Callable.. to Prepare for Early-Repayment
LB 3-10yr
FRB / R-bill
P/N
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt management Office
THB
Mil
Beginning FY2012 Ending FY2012 ResultATM 4yrs 8mths 5yrs 3mths Lengthen by 7mthsCost 5.1% 4.5% Lowered by 67 bpsFixed : Float 82 : 18 79 : 21 Float Increased 3%Callable Proportion 10% 19% Callable Rose 9%NO Refinancing Risk : Yearly Maturing Debt < 250,000 THB Mil
Post 2012 Checklist LATEST
VERSRION
1) To develop deep and liquid local currency and regional bond markets 2) To enable investment-grade ASEAN+3 issuers to access local currency bond markets 3) to promote the issuance of debt securities with longer term maturities to match the
gestation of investment projects
1) A reduction of cost of financing of issuers 2) An efficient fund raising and a conformity with financial requirement of the business 3) A reduction of currency & Maturity Mismatch
Objectives
Benefits
Functions 1) Guaranteeing bonds that are denominated in local currencies and issued by
ASEAN+3 entities rated investment-grade 2) Guaranteeing bonds that are not denominated in local currencies and issued by
ASEAN+3 entities rated investment-grade, provided the entities concerned are naturally hedged in such currency
3) Making investments for the development of the bond markets (no such investments shall be made until after the Meeting of Contributors has determined that CGIF is in a position to commence such operations); and
4) Undertaking such other activities and providing such other services consistent with CGIF objectives
Population($6,865 mln)
Trade($18.9 trln)
Source: IMF and World Trade Organization
GDP($69.6 trln)
31%
($2,133 mln)
24%
($16.4 trln) 46%
($8.6 trln)
CGIF is guaranteed by ASEAN + 3 Rising Giant
CGIF Activated
27
BAHT BONDCGIF
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4 BB
Inv’t Grade
Targetedindustry
Naturalhedging
?
GOVERNMENT Bond
BOT Bond
SOE Bond
Corp Bond
Baht Bond
CGIF1%
19%
7%
35%
38%
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office
Linking CGIF & BAHT BOND to the Development of Bond Market
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
94 BBIB
RD
Hana(18,000 m)
KDB
KEXIM(20,700 m)
IBK(12,300 m)
Citi(11,553 m)
ADB(10,500 m)
ING(10,000 m)
AFD
CABEI
Woori
SEK
Total Outstanding THB 8.2 TRN.(71% of GDP )
as of 31 Aug 2012
ASEANThai CorporateGlobal
issuersDomestic Bond Mkt
28
0
100
200
300
400
500
29/8/
2008
30/9/
2008
31/10
/2008
28/11
/2008
30/12
/2008
30/1/
2009
27/2/
2009
31/3/
2009
30/4/
2009
29/5/
2009
30/6/
2009
31/7/
2009
31/8/
2009
30/9/
2009
31/10
/2009
30/11
/2009
30/12
/2009
29/1/
2010
26/2/
2010
31/3/
2010
30/4/
2010
31/5/
2010
30/6/
2010
30/7/
2010
31/8/
2010
30/9/
2010
29/10
/2010
30/11
/2010
30/12
/2010
31/1/
2011
28/2/
2011
31/3/
2011
29/4/
2011
31/5/
2011
30/6/
2011
29/7/
2011
31/8/
2011
30/9/
2011
31/10
/2011
30/11
/2011
30/12
/2011
31/1/
2012
29/2/
2012
30/3/
2012
30/4/
2012
31/5/
2012
By Rating
Who is Eligible for CGIF Guaranteed?
ALL current issuers of corporate bondsPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
Cost Saving
Bp
s (a
bo
ve 5
-yr
Go
vern
men
t Bo
nd
)
BBB
A
44%
AAA
BBB10%
27%
AAA
19%
Unrated
Corporate Bonds (less commercial paper) = THB1.3 trillion (16% of Bond Market at THB 8.3 trillion As of 31 Aug 2012) Source: ThaiBMA
350bps
125bps
170bps
50bps
GOVT
2008 2009 2010 2011 Aug 2012
By Business Sector
Energy
24%
Bank
21%
Food
9%
Prop
10%
Conmat8%
Fin
6%
Other
5%
Petro5%
Trans
5%
ICT
3%
Agri
2%
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong presented the Ministry of Finance
Outright Primary Dealer (MOF OUTRIGHT PD) certificates to 13 financial institutions on
August 28, 2012, at Vayupaksa 4, Ministry of Finance. 29
Founding 13 MOF-outright PD
Yearly Evaluation (fiscal year) with half-year review Regular one-on-one or one-on-group meeting
Exclusivity in 5-yr tenor
BOT outright counterparty MOF Preferred Counterparty
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Duties, Privileges and Monitoring To ensure efficient market making activities
Duties
Privileges
Monitoring
Partnership with MOF Benefit from Incentive program of
Thailand stock Exchange
Maintain at least 5% share of
total issue size of selected tenor
Participate in every auction Submit bid at least 10% for
exclusivity tenor
1. Primary Market 2. Secondary Market 3. Bond Market Development
Maintain at least 5% share of market trading value
Submit daily end-of-day price to ThaiBMA
Being MOF, Stock exchange of Thailand, BOT and ThaiBMAPartner in developing bond market
Selected LB: 3 yr (LB176A) 5 yr (LB196A) 7 yr (LB21DA) 10 yr (LB236A) and ILB
30
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Upgrading Primary Dealer System MOF Outright PD
1. Bangkok Bank PCL.
2. BNP Paribas, Bangkok Branch
3. Citibank N.A., Bangkok Branch
4. Deutsche Bank AG., Bangkok Branch
5. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
6. JPMorgan Chase Bank, Bangkok Branch
7. Kasikornbank PCL.
8. KGI Securities (Thailand) PCL.
9. Krung Thai Bank PCL.
10. The Royal Bank of Scotland N.V., Bangkok Branch
11. Siam Commercial Bank PCL.
12. Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) PCL.
13. TMB Bank PCL.
31
Electronic Retail
Savings Bond
Accessible Savings for All and Promoting Thailand Towards
Saving Society Bangkok and Central
S
N 8%
NE 7%
7%
78%
Well-Diversified Investor Base
Bond Market Deepening
9%
CB 10%
NR 10%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
32%
Depository Corporation
39%
Retail Bond Distribution Classified by Region
Improve Infrastructure to Develop Country
Tram System
Transportation System
Infrastructure System
Energy System
Telecommunication System
Government Debt Securities Classified by Types of Investors
Electronic Retail Savings Bond
Enhance Liquidity in Secondary Market
Promote Scripless Trading system
Alternative Instrument for Micro-Savers
Household and
Non-profit
2542 2543 2544 2545 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551
5 Innovations towards Sustainable Development
Dynamic
Drive
Dimension
Financial
Distribution
Service
Development
Step-upInterest Rate
Limit AmountMinimum Amount
10,000 Baht
Limit
Accessible Savings for All
Future
2011
200
2542 2543 2544 2545 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 1 2 3 4 5
2010
%
% %
%
%
1 2 3 4 5 6
Add
Designated Financial
Institutions
1 2 3
• DYNAMIC FEATURES • BROADENED DISTRIBUTION• SYNERGY DRIVE • SOCIAL DIMENSION• FINANCIAL SERVICE DEVELOPMENT
5Ds
Features
Broadened
Synergy
Social
2007
Past (1997 – 07) Present (2008 – 2012)
12 Banks
(2010)
2nd Period: People
1
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
FixedInterest Rate
% % %
% %
%
%
%
%
Minimum Amount
10,000 Baht
Add
Distribution channel
1st Period : Senior Citizen
2 Periods of Distribution
Only One Designated Financial Institutions
Senior Citizen
1st Priority
Across the Country
Via The Branch of Designated Financial Institutions
yr yr yr
To Allow Retail Investor Access to Quality Source of Savings
Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers
To Promote Regular Saving Among Low Income Investor
To Promote Scripless System
1
Phase 1 Phase 2
1,000 Baht
All year round selling
ATMThe Branch of Designated Financial Institutions
Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers (1st launch Sept 2011)
( 2554)
Savings Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Thailand… Towards Saving Society
3
2
Minimum Amount 10,000 Baht
Selling Period 5 Days
Distribution ChannelThe Branch of Designated Financial Institutions
Distribute Via ATM
Distribute Via Electronic Platform
Liquidity + Bond Mart + Secondary Market
32
Secondary Market + Bond Mart + trading Platform
เ ม ช ห ห ณะ เ ฒ ะเ ศ
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
For Further Information : Chularat Suteethorn +662 265 8050 ext. 5100 [email protected]
Director-General, Public Debt Management Office
Pimpen Ladpli +66 2271 7999 ext. 5802 [email protected] Director of Government Bond Market Development Division
Acting Director Bond Market Development Bureau
Nattakarn Boonsri +66 2271 7999 ext. 5803 [email protected] Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Chatmanee Sinsiri +66 2271 7999 ext. 5804 [email protected]
Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
Wilawan Prachasin +66 2271 7999 ext. 5816 [email protected]
Economist
Pothirat Kijsriopak +66 2271 7999 ext. 5812 [email protected] Economist
Ittipong Kanluan +66 2271 7999 ext. 5806 [email protected] Economist