khalid bashir-final web · 2011-06-20 · khalid bashir school of agricultural and resource...
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Khalid BashirKhalid BashirKhalid BashirKhalid BashirSchool of Agricultural and Resource Economics School of Agricultural and Resource Economics School of Agricultural and Resource Economics School of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Faculty of Natural and Agricultural SciencesFaculty of Natural and Agricultural SciencesFaculty of Natural and Agricultural SciencesFaculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences
Born and educated in Pakistan, Khalid completed a Bachelor
of Agricultural Science degree with Honours in Agricultural
Economics, followed by a Masters in Computer Science and a
Master’s (hons) in Development Economics, at the University
of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF). Subsequently he became a
lecturer at the Department of Development Economics and
won a postgraduate scholarship under the Faculty
Development Program of UAF which is jointly funded by UWA.
Khalid’s interest in his topic stems from the fact that food
insecurity is a global menace and 90% of undernourished
people live in developing countries. His research aims to
identify methods for improving the performance of food
security policies.
Traditionally, the research in the area of food security policy
evaluation has been confined to the assessment of the impact
of a single policy.
Khalid’s research is focused on short-term food security
policies and addresses the core issue of involvement of
multiple policies as well as the implementing bodies.
Hunger : a problem on the rise in
Pakistan – Why?
Muhammad Khalid Bashir
Supervisors: Dr. Steven Schilizzi
Dr. Ram Pandit
The UWA Institute of Agriculture
Outline
o Background
o Food Security: The Issue
o World and South Asian Situation
o Pakistan
o Aim and objectives
o Methodology
o Conceptual and Theoretical model
o Food Security Measurement Tools
o Data collection
o Initial Results
o General trends in Pakistan
o Food Security Situation in study area
o Determinants of Food Security
Food Security: The Issue
o Prominent in 70s
o Food Security: more than 190 definitions
o Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO):
comprehensive definition
o Availability
o Accessibility
o Utilization
World and South Asian Situation
South Asia
336.6 million
India and Pakistan
Bangladesh and
Sri Lanka
Nepal.
Pakistan, 27th largest economy
• Severe localized food insecurity• Highly undernourished population 26 % �44 M• Serious problem
World Rank Commodities2 Buffalo milk and meat
3 Chick peas
4 Cotton, goat milk and meat
5 Sugar cane, dates
6 Pulses, mangoes and guava
10 Wheat, castor oil seed and spinach
11 Rice, oranges and Pistachios
Aim and Objectives
Policy
interventionsImplementing
institutes
Socio-
economic
factors
Food
security
Methodology
Target population groups
♦Small farmers (5 acres)
♦Landless rural households
Towards Conceptual Model
♦Hunger always existed
♦Academically
omacro levels
omicro level
Conceptual model
From ‘FAO’ definition and existing literature
Food Security
Availability
ProductionMarket
purchases
Accessibility
IncomeIncome
distribution within HH
Food prices
Utilization
KnowledgeHealth and sanitation
Dietary intakes
Theoretical framework
Utility maximization function;
U = U(XFP, XFM, XNFM)
Subject to Production, Consumption and Income constraints
Land Owners Tenants Landless
Production Constraint N/A
Consumption
Constraint
Income Constraint
Input Demand N/A
Output Supply N/A
Income
Consumption
Food Security
Food Security Measurement Tools
o The FAO Method
o Anthropometry
o Food Insecurity Experience-based Measurement Scales
o Ethnography
o Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA)
o Household Expenditure Survey Method (HESM)
o Dietary Intake Assessment (DIA)
Data Collection
Secondary data �FAO, World Bank and Govt. of Pakistan
Primary data �Punjab
Sample size = 1152
�Stratified sampling
Results-- General trends in Pakistan
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Cereals Quantity 000 tonnesProduction
Availability
Consumption
Food Availability
Food Availability -- Wheat
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Quantity 000 tonnes
Production
Consumption
Availability
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Food Availability – Milk and Meat
Quantity 000 tonnes
Milk production
Milk consumption
Meat production and
consumption
Food Accessibility
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Per Capita Income (Rs.)
Nominal
Real
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 1995 2000 2005
Food Utilization
Calories (Kcal)Consumption
Requirement
Food Security in Punjab
FAO food security line 1770 Kcal/person/day
Food Security Status Frequency Percent
Food insecure 75 6.5
Food secure 1077 93.5
Total 1152 100.0
Govt. of Pakistan’s food security line 2450 Kcal/person/day
Food insecure 264 22.9
Food secure 888 77.1
Total 1152 100.0
Determinants of Food Security
Factors β SE OR
Significance levels = *** < 1 %; ** < 5 % and <10%
Monthly income 0.0001*** 0.000 1.0001
Age of Household head -0.030*** 0.008 0.971
Family size -0.393*** 0.043 0.675
Total earning hands 0.177 0.120 1.194
Family structure -0.369* 0.207 0.691
Orphans -0.073 0.155 0.929
Livestock (milking animals) - 0.115*** 0.025 1.122
Education level (primary) - 0.206 0.194 1.229
Education level (middle) 0.691** 0.290 1.996
Education level (intermediate) 0.847*** 0.260 2.333
Education level (graduation) 0.774** 0.359 2.169
Model Significance
• Overall prediction success • 80.6%
• Statistical Inference Method• Hosmer and Lemeshow Model (df=8) =11.96
• P-value = 0.153
• Descriptive methods• Pseudo R2 �Cox & Snell and Nagelkerke
Conclusions
• Food security at national level
♦ Food sufficient country
♦ High under nourishment at national level (26%)
• Food security in Punjab
♦ FAO: 6.5 %
♦ GOP: 22.9%
• Food security
♦ Improved: monthly income, livestock assets and education
♦ Reduced: Age of household head and family size
Conclusions
Policy
interventionsImplementing
institutes
Socio-
economic
factors
Food
security