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Francisco Marmolejo

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6/12/2014

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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary

Twitter: @fmarmole

From Vision to ActionA Regional Event. 12-13 June, 2014

Tunis, Tunisia

Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education CoordinatorThe World [email protected]

@fmarmole

@fmarmole Email: [email protected]

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6/12/2014

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Twitter: @fmarmole

Francisco Marmolejo

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Twitter: @fmarmole

Francisco Marmolejo

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Twitter: @fmarmole

Francisco Marmolejo

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Twitter: @fmarmole

Francisco Marmolejo

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It is all relative…

Our beautiful planet in reality is no more than a speck of dust in the universe.

Marco Caceres. Space Analyst

@fmarmole Email: @[email protected]

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“When I think about

the future… I become

scared of the present”

ALBERT EINSTEIN

I never think of the future…

…It comes soon enough

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Twitter: @fmarmole

20141976 20252025

2040

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RANK COUNTRY 1950 COUNTRY 2000 COUNTRY 2050

1 China 554.8 China 1,275.2 India 1,531.4

2 India 357.6 India 1,016.9 China 1,395.2

3 USA. 157.8 USA 285.0 USA 408.7

4 Russian Federation 102.7 Indonesia 211.6 Pakistan 348.7

5 Japan 83.6 Brazil 171.8 Indonesia 293.8

6 Indonesia 79.5 Russia 145.6 Nigeria 258.5

7 Germany 68.4 Pakistan 142.7 Bangladesh 254.6

8 Brazil 54.0 Bangladesh 138.0 Brazil 233.1

9 Great Britan 49.8 Japan 127.0 Ethiopia 171.0

10 Italy 47.1 Nigeria 114.7 DR Congo 151.6

11 France 41.8 Mexico 98.9 Mexico 140.2

12 Bangladesh 41.8 Germany 82.3 Egypt 127.4

13 Ukraine 37.3 Philipines 75.7 Vietnam 117.7

14 Nigeria 29.8 Turkey 68.3 Japan 109.7

15 Spain 28.0 Egypt 67.8 Iran 105.5

16 Mexico 27.7 Iran 66.4 Uganda 103.2

Fuente: ONU (2004). World Population to 2300.

World’s most populated countries. 1950-2050

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1.16

1.18

8.2

4.75

0 2 4 6 8 10

Developed

countries

Developing

countries

1998

2050

Source: UN 1998 World Population Report

Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

Japan 2050: 70 65+ yr. old persons per 100 persons aged 15-65 yr.

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Nearly a half of the MENA population is under twenty

Source: Richards, A Political Economy of the Middle East, 2008

10 %

1910

50 %

2007

75 %

2050

WORLD POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES

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The annual urban population growth rate of the

world’s poorest countries is about 7 times the

urban growth rate in the world’s wealthiest

countries

Source: Ricky Burdett and Deyan Sudjic, eds., The Endless City: The Urban Age Project.

London: Phaidon.

By 2030, developing countries will account for

about 80 percent of the world’s total urban

population.

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In Norway the average income per capita is $ 149.00 dollars per day, while in Malawi is only $500.00 but per year ($ 1.36 per day).

In other words, three days of average income in Norway are equivalent to almost a year of income in Malawi

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

High Income Countries

South Asia

North Africa and Middle East

East and Pacific Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Source: Luis F. Lopez-Calva y N. Lusing0: Equity of Total Income

1: Inequity of Total Income

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Dominique Moisi.

Geopolitics of Emotions (2009)

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Net Migration (in millions of people). 1960-2010

Source: World Bank (2012). World Databank: Net Migration

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.

1975 1980 1990 1995 2000 2004 2006 2008

More than 3.3 million studentsabroad. It is forecasted that by 2020 therewill be 7 million internationalstudents.

Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute for Statistics (for data on non-OECD countries and up to 1995).

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� There are more than 5,000 ethnic groups in the world and only 190 countries.

� In the Sub-Sahara region exist 1,300 linguistic groups in only 62 countries

Source: Rodger Doyle. Ethnic groups in the world. Scientific American. Sep. 1998.

Tribalism and modernity

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Steve Breen. The San Diego Union-Tribune

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20141968 2025

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Source: ITU, 1999

0

20

40

60

80

TelephoneRadio

P.C.T.V.

WWW

Telephone Radio P.C. T.V. WWW

74 38 16 13 4

� Nigeria: 95 million

� Brazil: 240 million

� China: Almost 1 billion.

… At some point this year there will be more mobile devices on the

planet than humans. So that’ll be about 7 billion then.

… Cisco predicts that by 2016 there will be more than 10 billion mobile-

connected devices among an expected world population of some 7.3 billion people.

Source: Digital Trends. 2012. http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/mobile-devices-to-

outnumber-people-on-planet-this-year/

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Twitter: @fmarmole

Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]

Francisco Marmolejo

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Twitter: @fmarmole

Francisco Marmolejo

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Twitter: @fmarmole

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Average rate of return to year of

schooling is 10.4%

Based on comparable estimates of 545 observations, 131 economies, 1970-2011

In Latest year available: average rate of return is 9.9%

0.0

5.1

.15

.2D

en

sity

0 5 10 15 20Rate of return

Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank

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Table 3: Returns to schooling by educational level and region

(latest available year between 2000-2011)

Region Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP/pc

(PPP 2005)

N

World 10.3 6.9 16.8 6,719 74

Middle East and North Africa 9.4 3.5 8.9 3,645 7

South Asia 9.6 6.3 18.4 2,626 4

Eastern and Central Europe 8.3 4.0 10.1 6,630 7

High Income Economies 4.8 5.3 11.0 31,748 6

East Asia and Pacific 11.0 6.3 15.4 5,980 6

Latin America and Caribbean 9.3 6.6 17.6 7,269 20

Sub-Saharan Africa 13.4 10.8 21.9 2,531 24

Returns highest at Tertiary Level

Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank

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Principal factor of social mobility

More educationleads to:

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��Massification

��Still asymmetrical access / retention/ graduation

�� Increasing international student mobility

�� Revolution in teaching, learning and curriculum

��Quality assurance, accountability and qualification frameworks

�� Financing higher education

��The private providers’ revolution

��The academic profession

��The research environment

�� Information and communications technology

International trends in higher education

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Biases towards universities as the only tertiary education option persist.

Pathways allowing mobility between technical and vocational institutions and universities are also very limited, if they exist at all.

Quality control and assurance regulations and mechanism are weak

Equity: Clear disparities in access across groups persist.

Limited efficiency

Insufficient investment in tertiary education.

Information: Policy and investment decisions are often based on inaccurate, biased, or incomplete information.

Lack of knowledge of job market needs prevents institutions from transparently sharing information about employability, demanded skills, and costs with students.

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More than ever more people are having access to higher education …

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0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

SSA South and

West Asia

Middle East

& N. Africa

Central Asia East Asia and

the Pacific

World Latin

America andthe

Caribbean

Central and

EasternEurope

North

America andWestern

Europe

1998 2005 2010

Courtesy of P. Materu. The World Bank

4.9 %

58 %

Mexico (2012): Percentage of 19-23 yr. old students

attending tertiary education institutions

per Income Level

Source: Tuiran, R. 2012. CONAHEC Conference. Puebla

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Implications of the global growth in TE

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Challenging the traditional accreditation

& certificationmechanisms

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A new type of

students

¿Sequential? Multi-task?

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I have a netbook, MP3

Players, flashdrive, IPAD…

Dad, what did you use in

school when you were

student?

My brain!!

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� Define what a circle is:It is a line connected by two ends making a round figure.

� What is Trigonometry?:Device used to measure trigonometers.

GEOMETRY

� What are the movements of the heart?:� The heart is always in movement. It doesn’t move in the case of corpses only.

�

� Brain:

Ideas, after being spoken, go straight to the brain.

THE HUMAN BODY

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Gajaraj Dhanarajan


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86

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87

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Source: World Development Report 2013

72 % de educadores

58 % de empleadores

NO

SI

Fuente: Mourshed, Farrell, y Barton (2012), Education to Employment: Designing a System that Works.

Hipótesis: el mercado laboral demanda unacombinacion de habilidades diferentes que las que

provee el sistema educativo

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“Universities won’t survive…higher education is in deep crisis…The college campus won’t survive as a residential institution. Today’s [college] buildings are hopelessly unsuited and totally unneeded”

Peter Drucker, 1997

…or it is just an exageration?

Elliot Masie, President - The MasieCenter

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“While the ship is sinking –says the captain – the first

priority is to save the crew, next is to avoid

problems while the ship continues to sink, the third

priority is to repair the ship, and lastly, the fourth

priority, if time permits, is to save the passengers”

Arthur Levine, president of Columbia Teachers College

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Continuing doing the

sme, but waiting

different results

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Further develop a self- evaluation of institutional capacity to respond to regional needs

Revisit institutional mission to become more coherent; monitor results and acknowledge that regional engagement

enhance the core missions of teaching and research

Develop stronger connections with external stakeholders, and more professional senior management teams

Establish modern administration with HR and financial resources management systems: Review recruitment, hiring

and reward systems

Establish partnership organizations between HEIs

Significantdevelopments

Theaccreditation

syndrome

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What are the top 3 issues in tertiary education in your

region in which the Bank has an opportunity to act?

Quality Assurance/Governance

Employability of Graduates

Financing

Other priorities raised include Equity and Access,

Innovation, Focus on Community Colleges

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What should the Bank’s priorities be in tertiary

education in the next 5 years? *

15.4%

38.5%

38.5%

38.5%

38.5%

46.2%

53.8%

53.8%

61.5%

69.2%

69.2%

69.2%

76.9%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

Diversification in institutional mission of TEIs

Greater focus on TEIs versus governments

Fostering internationalization

Non-university post-secondary sector

Articulation btw different types of TEIs and with Secondary Ed.

Innovation in educational delivery models used by TEIs

Developing capacity of TEIs in science and innovation

Equity and access to TE

Role of the private sector in TE

Improving governance

Improving quality assurance

Funding models for TE

Bridging gap between education and employment

* Multiple responses

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Too much emphasis on assurance/compliance.

Still limited evidence on quality

Accreditation as a proxy of the status quo. Hindering innovation?

Perceived failures in some global efforts (AHELO)

The role of rankings

How much autonomy?

Variable / Type TRADITIONAL (I) TRANSITIONAL (II) MATURE (III) EGYPT

APPROACH TO QUALITY Quality Control (QC) Quality Assurance (QA) Quality Enhancement (QE) High on QC. Initial work in QA

NATIONAL EFFORTS Procedures to control/impose quality measures

Control plus incentives, training and monitoring

Accreditation based on adoption of QA practices

Still strong on procedures and control with novel pilot programmes based on incentives. Creation of a National Agency (NAQAAE) similar to those of Type III

countries.

LEVEL OF INSTITUTIONAL INTERVENTION

Institution-wide Academic offerings Institutional and academic offerings

Major emphasis on Institution-wide

intervention . Initial work on accreditation of academic offerings.

TIMING OF INTERVENTION Ex-ante-facto Ex-post-facto Both Both

DOMINANT EVALUATION APPROACH

Educational inputs Educational processes Both Major emphasis on educational inputs

PARTICIPATORYAPPROACH

Mandatory Voluntary Both Mandatory

APPLICABILITY BYINSTITUTIONAL TYPE

Either private OR public educational institutions. Differential treatment

Private AND public educational institutions. Trends towards equal treatment

Educational institutions and specialised accrediting agencies. Equal treatment

Applicable to both although with stricter

enforcement and regulations in the case of private institutions.

APPLICABILITY BY INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL

Universities Universities and some non-university institutions

All levels of the tertiary education system

Initial work at the level of universities.

Planned efforts at the level of non-university institutions

LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION

Central. Government Agency

Semi-autonomous Independent. Non-governmental entity

Central. Although NAQAAE is semi-

autonomous in theory, all its members are appointed by the central government

LEVEL OF STUDENT PARTICIPATION

QA system application QA system design Both QA system application

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Connecting the Agency with just new

regulations, rather than as enabler of overall

improvement.

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Governance models

State-centered Market-orientedAcademic self-

governance

Dim

ensi

on

s o

f g

ov

ern

an

ce Organizational

Funding

Human Resources

Academic

Source: Adapted from Dobbins, M., Knill, C., & Vögtle, E. M. (2011). An analytical framework for the cross-

country comparison of higher education governance. Higher Education, 62(5), 665-683.

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Diversifying options, but leveling the playing field.

Assuring good quality institutions.

Making post-compulsory education and training equitable and affordable.

Targeting public resources toward programs that yield high social returns.

Using innovative approaches to retain students and ensure employable graduates.

Improving secondary education.

Increasing the autonomy and cost-efficiency of institutions and the TE systems.

Arming students with information so they make smart choices.

Embracing competition – national and global.

Fostering openness and an evidence-based culture in tertiary education.

Towards a new

paradigm in higher

education

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More international, but more locally connected and

socially responsible.

More flexible

More innovative

More entrepreneur

Less risk averse

More collaborative (inside and

outside)

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A priority for “tomorrow”

Marginal

About money and control

Too complex

A good idea, but..

A priority for ”yesterday”

Mainstreamed

About mobility of societies

Means for better education

A critical need

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� What it may work in one case

There is no magic formula…

…it is not necessarily the best solution in other cases

For every complex problem there is

an answer that is clear, simple,

H. L. Mencken

…and wrong.

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“ The trouble with our times is that

the future is not what it used to be ”

Paul Valéry

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Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education Coordinator

The World BankTel. +1 (202) 458-5927

Email: [email protected]://www.worldbank.org/education/tertiary

Twitter @fmarmole

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Documents

world population prospects

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world population report

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old persons

dr congo

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