key findings utility & environmental implications table 5b: generation capacity mix at selected...

Key FindingsKey Findings

Utility & Environmental ImplicationsUtility & Environmental Implications

Table 5b: Generation capacity mix at selected energy tax rates in year 2025

Issue 1 Energy TaxEnergy Tax

Power Generation Capacity Mix at year 2025 (MW)

Energy tax rate ($/Mbtu) 0 0.5 1 2 5 10

Hydro 17640 17910 17910 18297 18090 18187

Coal 21400 17800 16600 10300 10000 6000

FO+DO 725 725 725 725 725 725

Gas 9490 11230 10795 11230 5290 3820

Import 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

RETs 20 419 464 9214 9400 9400

Total capacity (MW) 53000 51809 49494 53491 47230 41857

Shares in Power Generation Capacity at year 2025 (%)


Hydro 33.28 34.57 36.19 34.21 38.30 43.45

Coal 40.38 34.36 33.54 19.26 21.17 14.33

FO+DO 1.37 1.40 1.46 1.36 1.54 1.73

Gas 17.91 21.68 21.81 20.99 11.20 9.13

Import 5.66 5.79 6.06 5.61 6.35 7.17

RETs 0.04 0.81 0.94 17.23 19.90 22.46


Utility & Environmental ImplicationsUtility & Environmental Implications

Table 6b: Electricity generation mix at selected Energy tax rates during 2006-2025


Electricity Generation (GWh)


Hydro 1218881 1224940 1221503.5 1212859 1213150 1123073

Coal 1052220 905567 823518 665492 542100 165512

FO+DO 26941 26941 26941 26941 26941 26941

Gas 748413 797472 766782 776810 316066 220408

Import 333450 333450 333450 333450 333450 332143

RETs 1872 18097 32886 84492 213814 213814

Total generation 3410219 3336436 3232886.5 3134234 2673953 2109476

Shares in Electricity Generation (%)


Hydro 35.74 36.71 37.78 38.70 45.37 53.24

Coal 30.85 27.14 25.47 21.23 20.27 7.85

FO+DO 0.79 0.81 0.73 0.86 1.01 1.28

Gas 21.95 23.90 23.72 24.78 11.82 10.45

Import 9.78 9.99 10.31 10.64 12.47 15.75

RETs 0.05 0.54 1.02 2.70 8.00 10.14


Fig1b: Installed generation capacity by fuel types at selected energy tax rates in year 2025

Fig2b:Electricity generation by fuel types during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 0.5 1 2 5 10

Capacity

(M

W)

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Import

FO & DO

RETs

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

0 0.5 1 2 5 10

Ele

ctr

icity

genera

tion (

GW

h)

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Import

FO & DO

RETs


Fig3b: Total electricity generation by hydro during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates

Fig4b:Electricity generation by coal during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Ele

ctr

icity g

enera

tion (

GW

h)

Base case

0.5$/Mbtu case

1$/Mbtu case

2$/Mbtu case

5$/Mbtu case

10$/Mbtu case

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Ele

ctr

icity

genera

tion (

GW

h)

Base case

0.5$/Mbtu case

1$/Mbtu case

2$/Mbtu case

10$/Mbtu case


Fig5b: Total electricity generation by gas during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates

Fig6b: Change in consumption by fossil fuels during 2006- 2025 at selected energy tax rates


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Ele

ctr

icity

genera

tion (

GW

h)

Base case

0.5$/Mbtu case

1$/Mbtu case

2$/Mbtu case

5$/Mbtu case

10$/Mbtu case

-81.51

66.90

88.07

-73.71

-42.23-34.08

-17.89-11.010

13.37

0

22.15

39.54 42.48

65.58

0.000.000

49.26

24.1717.69

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 25 50 100 200

Fu

el c

on

sum

ptio

n (

%)

Coal

Gas

FO & DO


Fig7b: Effects of energy tax on power generation technology mix in year 2025

Fig8b: Generation mix during the planning period at different carbon tax rates


Technology Mix: Vietnam

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

0 0.5 1 2 5 10

Tax ($/ MBtu)hydro coal supercriticaloil GT NGCCImport Mini hydro GeothermalWind

Generation Mix in Vietnam

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 0.5 1 2 5 10 Tax ($/ MBtu)

Coal Nat_gasOil HydroImport Renewable


Fig9b: Reduction in total capacity addition due to energy tax

Fig10b: Reduction in total generation due to energy tax


Reduction in total generation capacity addition due to Energy tax (%)

Tax ($/Mbtu)-10

10

20

30

40

50

1.0 2.0 5.0 10.00.5

Reductions in total Generation due to Energy Tax (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0

Tax ($/MBtu)


Table 7b: Weighted average thermal generation efficiency during the planning horizonat selected energy tax rates, %

Table 8b: Weighted average loss of load probability and cumulative expected energy not served during 2006-2025 at various energy tax rates


Energy tax rate(US$/Mbtu)

Weighted averageLOLP (%)

EENS

GWh %#

0 0.00327 2588.7 0.07591

0.5 0.0032 2517.5 0.07545

1 0.00242 1947.6 0.06007

2 0.00183 1397.6 0.04459

5 0.000001 0.2 0.00001

10 1E-07 0.09 0.00000

Energy tax rate(US$/Mbtu)

Weighted average thermal generation efficiency (%)

0 37.23

0.5 38.14

1 36.69

2 39.33

5 36.12

10 38.95


Table 9b: CO2 and local emissions mitigation reduction at different energy tax rates during the whole planning period, %

Fig10b: Cumulative CO2 & local emissions reduction (%) during the planning

horizon at different selected energy tax rates


Energy tax(US$/MBtu)

Vietnam

CO2 SO2 NOx

0.5 8.8 6.95 10.49

1.0 15.3 10.62 18.87

2.0 26.1 20.64 31.03

5.0 47.7 23.84 55.30

10.0 78.1 68.90 77.11

53.48

20.0917.56

10.62

4.73

5.73

18.8722.79

27.54

46.15

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

0.5 1 2 5 10

Cum

ula

tive e

mis

sio

n r

eduction (

%)

SO2

NOx

CO2


Fig11b: Cumulative SO2 emission emitted during the planning horizon at different selected energy tax rates

Fig12b: Cumulative NOx emission emitted during the planning horizon at different selected energy tax rates


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

SO

2 e

mis

sio

n (

ton)

Base case

0.5$/Mbtu case

1$/Mbtu case

2$/Mbtu case

5$/Mbtu case

10$/Mbtu case

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

NO

x e

mis

sio

n (

ton)

Base case

0.5$/Mbtu case

1$/Mbtu case

2$/Mbtu case

5$/Mbtu case

10$/Mbtu case


Fig13b: CO2 emission intensity in term of per unit of electricity generation at different selected energy tax rates

Fig14b: Cumulative CO2 emission reduction (%) during the planning horizon tax at various selected energy tax rates


53.48

20.0917.56

10.62

4.73

5.73

18.8722.79

27.54

46.15

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

0.5 1 2 5 10

Cum

ula

tive

em

issio

n r

edu

ctio

n (

%)

SO2

NOx

CO2

23008.96

14472.5213634.576

12473.374

10214.311

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0.5 1 2 5 10

CO

2 e

mis

sio

n inte

nsity p

er

unit o

f energ

y tax


Table 10b: The share of supply side effect and demand side effect to the total CO2 mitigation during the planning horizon at selected energy tax rates, %



Vietnam

SSE DSE

0.5 47.29 52.71

1.0 47.27 52.73

2.0 62.42 37.58

5.0 37.68 62.32

10.0 34.71 65.29

Note:SSE = CO2 mitigation due to supply side effect

DSE = CO2 mitigation due to demand side effect

Key FindingsKey FindingsCost ImplicationCost Implication

Table 11b: Average incremental cost (AIC) during the planning horizon at selected energy tax rates(US¢/kWh)



Vietnam

0 2.70

0.5 3.04

1.0 3.36

2.0 4.04

5.0 5.43

10.0 7.70

Country AIC Total cost

Vietnam

10.3 11.7

Table 12b: Percentage increment in Average Incremental Cost and Total Cost with energytax compared to carbon tax for a 10% reduction in total CO2emissions

key findings utility & environmental implications table 5b: generation capacity mix at selected...

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