ENERGY FUTURESDAILY PREVIEW

Energy Table .Contract Sett Chg High Low ATR(14) SMA (100) SMA (200)Nymex Crude Oil AUG 20 37.43 0.80 37.54 34.66 2.51 37.09 45.93Natural Gas AUG 20 1.760 -0.053 1.844 1.755 0.084 2.060 2.211RB Gasoline AUG 20 117.32 4.05 118.59 110.19 6.29 113.34 144.13Heating Oil AUG 20 115.53 3.55 116.13 109.96 6.24 123.54 155.27Brent Fin Last Day SEP 20 39.96 0.98 40.06 37.50 2.23 41.15 50.19US Dollar Index 96.73 -0.593 97.39 96.597 0.733 98.97915 98.43042

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg Survey on U.S. Total Change in Inventories

Date Actual Survey Actual Survey Production Inventory5/6/2020 5720 -1850 866 -1000 11100 538065

29/5/2020 -2077 3000 2795 300 11200 53234522/5/2020 7928 -1911 -724 150 11400 53442215/5/2020 -4982 2150 2830 -2900 11500 5264948/5/2020 -745 4000 -3513 -2500 11600 5314761/5/2020 4590 8800 -3158 1000 11900 532221

24/4/2020 8991 11900 -3669 2492 12100 52763117/4/2020 15022 14000 1017 4500 12200 51864010/4/2020 19248 12700 4914 7300 12300 5036183/4/2020 15177 9250 10497 5550 12400 484370

27/3/2020 13833 3300 7524 1200 13000 46919320/3/2020 1623 3000 -1537 -2000 13000 455360

Source: Bloomberg

Data Ahead :Economic Event Period Avg Survey Actual Prior

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jun-12 800k -- 5720k

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Jun-12 -- -- -2279k

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Jun-12 -1000k -- 866k

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Jun-12 3000k -- 1568k

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization Jun-12 0.50% -- 1.30%

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand Jun-12 -- -- 17147

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE Gasoline Implied Demand Jun-12 -- -- 8208.6

06/17/2020 22:30 DOE Distillate Implied Demand Jun-12 -- -- 4715

06/18/2020 22:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow Jun-12 -- -- 93

06/18/2020 22:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Jun-12 -- -- 93

06/20/2020 01:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Jun-19 -- -- 279

06/20/2020 01:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs Jun-19 194 -- 199

06/20/2020 01:00 Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs Jun-19 -- -- 78

U.S. Oil Rig Count vs Nymex Crude Oil & Gasoline Price

Total OPEC Crude Oil Production vs Nymex Crude Oil & Gasoline Price & Inventory

Source: Bloomberg

June 16, 2020

Gasoline Crude OilCrude Oil

KENANGA FUTURES SDN BHD Company No. 353603-X

Summary : Oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday as signs that fuel demand was recovering, while OPEC+ members were complying with a production cut deal, outweighed fears that new coronavirus infections could further slow the global economy.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 86 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $37.12 a barrel. Brent crude gained 99 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $39.72 a barrel.

Prices rebounded from early losses after the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates voiced confidence that OPEC+ countries with poor compliance to agreed cuts would meet their commitments and reported signs oil demand was picking up.

An OPEC-led monitoring panel will meet Thursday to discuss whether countries have delivered their share of output reductions.

Iraq agreed with its major oil companies to cut crude production further in June, Iraqi officials working at the country's giant southern oilfields told Reuters on Sunday.

Saudi Arabia has also reduced the volume of July-loading crude it will supply to at least five buyers in Asia, sources said.

Also positive for prices, China's crude oil throughput in May rose 8.2% from a year earlier as independent refiners increased processing to meet the recovery in fuel demand following the easing of lockdowns.

U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline in July to the lowest since July 2018, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Monday.

Still, fuel demand concerns have weighed on market sentiment. More than 25,000 new coronavirus cases were reported on Saturday in the United States, where more than 2 million people have been infected, about a quarter of the cases worldwide.

After nearly two months with no new infections, Beijing officials reported 79 coronavirus cases over the past four days, sparking fears of an outbreak in one of the world's most populous cities.

Economic data from China suggested the world's second-biggest economy was struggling to get back on track. Industrial output in May expanded 4.4% from a year earlier, less than expected.

Germany's economic output will also fall further in the second quarter, its economy ministry said on Monday.

(Source: Reuters & Bloomberg)

Technical Analysis

Crude Oil:Oil prices formed a second consecutive doji candle while still holding above the crucial middle Bollinger Band support, whereas a breach below this level could establish a new leg towards the downside. On the daily chart, the recent plunge is still considered a healthy retracement of the overall trend hence, bullish momentum is intact as long as the first lower low has not formed. On the flip side, the MACD line has just crossed below the signal line which hinting for a trend reversal in the near term. With a neutral view, crude oil is expected to trade between the range of 40.00 and 32.00.

Nymex Crude Oil Historical Volatility Normalized RBOB Gasoline minus Nymex Crude Oil Price

10 Days 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days64.90 76.47 115.95 121.22

Nymex Crude Daily Chart Nymex RBOB Gasoline Daily Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Daily Chart Nymex Heating Oil Daily Chart

Nymex Brent Last Day Daily Chart WTI-Brent Spread

Source: Bloomberg

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