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  • 8/17/2019 Karvy on Emami Ltd

    1/121

    Apr 30, 2016

    Emami LtdConsumer Staples-Household Products

    Emami Ltd

    India Research - Stock Broking BUY

    Bloomberg Code: HMN IN

    Recommendation (Rs.)

    CMP (as on Apr 29, 2016) 1007

    Target Price 1313

    Upside (%) 30

    Stock Information

    Mkt Cap (Rs.mn/US$ mn) 228500 / 3440

    52-wk High/Low (Rs.) 1368 / 870

    3M Avg. daily volume (mn) 0.2

    Beta (x) 0.7

    Sensex/Nifty 25607 / 7850

    O/S Shares(mn) 227.0

    Face Value (Rs.) 1.0

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 72.7

    FIIs 16.3

    DIIs 1.2

    Others 9.8

    Stock Performance (%)

    1M 3M 6M 12M

    Absolute 10 (0) (4) 7

    Relative to Sensex 7 (3) 1 14

    Source: Bloomberg

    Relative Performance*

    Source: Bloomberg; *Index 100

    Analyst Contact

    Kunal Jagda

    040 - 3321 6277

    [email protected]

    Market Leader of Cooling Hair Oil, Beating the Heat

    High Margin Products in the Portfolio are expected to drive EBITDA growthahead of Sales growth: Recent acquisition of Kesh King Brand, accounts foraround 75% gross margin and 45% EBITDA margin as compared to the other

    products in the portfolio. Kesh King Brand is expected to drive the top line growth

    by around 8% to 10% additionally. This will enable Emami to record higher margins

    in FY17E and FY18E.

    Marching ahead in the league of Herbal Products: Zandu accounts for ~25%of the total revenue of Emami, with over 200 products in the portfolio under the

    Zandu Brand. The company is also expected to extend the brand with couple of

    new products; with the most recent launch of Zandu Honey, Emami is currently test

    marketing these new products and it is expected to launch these products by the

    end of FY17E.

    Market Leader of Cooling Hair oil is beating the Heat: The best seller ofall times, Emami’s Navratna cooling oil enjoys around 60% of the total market

    share. The rising temperature across India is expected to give robust growth to

    its Navratna cooling oil, Navratna Cool Talc and to Boroplus prickly heat powder.

    Historically, cooling oil has recorded 16% to 17% growth during moderate summer,

    so considering the current weather condition it is expected to grow at good pace.

    Valuation and Outlook 

    At CMP of Rs.1007, the stock is trading at P/E of 29.5x for FY18E. With theanticipated increase in top line due to high margin products in the portfolio, rising

    temperature across India, strong brand positioning, innovation and new product

    launches which were favourably received by the market, with strong balance sheet

    & nancial ratios, we expect that the consumer expenditure will further increase as

    the economy revives and hence there will be growth in Emami’s top line and bottom

    line as well. Based on P/E of 38.5x, we initiate the coverage with a “BUY” rating

    for a Target Price of Rs.1313 representing an upside of 30% for a period of 12-15

    months.

    Key Risks

     y Competition. y Volatility in raw material prices.

    For private circulation only. For important information about Karvy’s rating system and other disclosures refer

    to the end of this material. Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on Bloomberg, KRVY ,

    Thomson Publishers & Reuters

    Exhibit 1: Valuation Summary

    YE Mar (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Net Sales 18208 22172 25334 29473 34504

    EBITDA 5023 5401 5784 6992 8634

    EBITDA Margin (%) 27.6 24.4 22.8 23.7 25.0

    Adj. Net Prot 4025 4856 5240 6309 7743

    EPS (Rs.) 17.7 21.4 23.1 27.8 34.1

    RoE (%) 47.1 44.9 38.3 37.9 38.1P/E (x) 24.5 46.8 40.4 36.2 29.5

    Source: Company, Karvy Research, *Represents multiples for FY14 & FY15 are based on historic market price

    70

    90

    110

    130

    150

         A    p    r   -     1     5

         M    a    y   -     1     5

         J    u    n   -     1     5

         J    u     l   -     1     5

         A    u    g   -     1     5

         S    e    p   -     1     5

         O    c     t   -     1     5

         N    o    v   -     1     5

         D    e    c   -     1     5

         J    a    n   -     1     6

         F    e     b   -     1     6

         M    a    r   -     1     6

         A    p    r   -     1     6

    Emami Sensex

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Emami Ltd

    Company Background

    Emami Group established in early 1970s, has grown in India,

    with its presence in major sectors like FMCG, Real Estate,

    Hospitals, Retail, Newsprint Manufacturing, Pharmacy chain,

    Contemporary art, Edible oil and biodiesel. Founded by two

    friends Mr. R.S. Agarwal and Mr. R.S. Goenka, today Emami

    is a trusted brand of the nation with over 25,000 employeesand with a group turnover of about Rs.100 Bn. Emami Ltd is

    one of the leading and fastest growing personal and healthcare

    businesses in India, with an enviable portfolio of household

    brand names such as Boroplus, Navratna, Fair and Handsome,

    Zandu balm, Mentho Plus balm and Fast Relief. With seven

    manufacturing locations in India and one in Bangladesh

    supported by a widespread distribution network, the company

    is positioned to make its products available in every corner of

    the country. Emami has received countless accolades for its

    innovative and clutter-breaking products, which have carved

    out whole new segments from scratch in the Indian FMCGspace and positioned the company as one of the fastest

    growing and most proftable companies in the sector.

    Exhibit 2: Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Source: BSE, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 3: Geography-wise Revenue Segmentation - FY15 (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Balance sheet (Rs. Mn)

    FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Total Assets 16763 20273 24278 29197

    Net Fixed assets 4776 4917 5359 5797

    Current assets 5834 7693 10009 13155

    Other assets 6153 7663 8910 10245

    Total Liabilities 16763 20273 24278 29197

    Networth 12306 15023 18293 22307

    Debt 194 194 194 194

    Current Liabilities 3688 4451 5147 6002

    Other Liabilities 574 605 645 694

    Balance Sheet Ratios

    RoE (%) 44.9 38.3 37.9 38.1

    RoCE (%) 43.1 37.0 36.7 37.1

    Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4)

    Equity/Total Assets (%) 73.4 74.1 75.3 76.4

    P/BV (x) 18.5 14.1 12.5 10.2

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Cash Flow (Rs. Mn)

    FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    PBT* 5924 6547 7884 9676

    Depreciation 343 383 428 476

    Tax (956) (1309) (1577) (1935)

    Changes in WC 734 (282) 15 8

    Others (705) (1092) (1265) (1464)

    CF from Operations 5340 4247 5484 6761

    Capex (1098) (500) (844) (887)

    Investments (18111) (1000) (1000) (1000)

    Others 16871 1139 1313 1512

    CF from Investing (2337) (361) (531) (375)

    Change in Debt 19 0 0 0

    Interest Paid (52) (51) (51) (51)

    Dividends & Others (2120) (2523) (3038) (3729)

    CF from Financing (2154) (2575) (3090) (3780)

    Change in Cash 814 1311 1863 2605

    Source: Company, Karvy Research, * Before Exceptional Item

    Company Financial Snapshot (Y/E Mar)

    Profit & Loss (Rs. Mn)

    FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Net sales 22172 25334 29473 34504

    Optg. Exp (Adj for OI) 16772 19550 22480 25870

    EBITDA 5401 5784 6992 8634

    Depreciation 343 383 428 476

    Interest 51 51 51 51

    Other Income 918 1197 1371 1570

    PBT 5924 6547 7884 9676

    Tax 1070 1309 1577 1935

    Adj. PAT 4856 5240 6309 7743

    Profit & Loss Ratios

    EBITDA margin (%) 24.4 22.8 23.7 25.0

    Net margin (%) 21.9 20.7 21.4 22.4

    P/E (x) 46.8 40.4 36.2 29.5EV/EBITDA (x) 41.5 35.7 31.7 25.4

    Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Promoters72.7%

    FIIs16.3% DIIs

    1.2%

    Others9.8%

    Domestic85.7%

    International

    14.3%

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Emami Ltd

    High Margin Products in the Portfolio are expected to drive EBITDA growth ahead of Sales growth:

    Marching ahead in the league of Herbal Products:Zandu accounts for ~25% of the total revenue of Emami, with over 200 products in the portfolio under the Zandu Brand. The

    company is also expected to extend the brand with couple of new products; with the most recent launch of Zandu Honey,

    Emami is currently test marketing these new products and it is expected to launch these products by the end of FY17E. The

    company has also launched new products in diabetes space, heart care and also related to stress. These products are under

    test marketing in South India. The company foresees huge potential in this segment as there is no organized market and can

    create market for these brands.

    Balms and pain relief segment:Pain relief is a segment of focus for Emami. The company owns home-grown brands like Mentho Plus Balm, Fast Relief and

    category leader Zandu Balm. The pain relief category accounted for 21% of Emami’s consolidated sales in FY15. Ayurvedic

    positioning and widening rural presence made it possible for these brands to capture the largest market share in these categories.

    Market Leader of Cooling Hair oil is beating the Heat:The best seller of all times, Emami’s Navratna cooling oil enjoys around 60% of the total market share. The rising temperature

    across India is expected to give robust growth to its Navratna cooling oil, Navratna Cool Talc and to Boroplus prickly heatpowder. Historically, cooling oil has recorded 16% to 17% growth during moderate summer, so considering the current weather

    condition, it is expected to grow at good pace.

    Hair oils:Emami plugged a gap in its portfolio through the introduction of Emami 7 Oils in One, a unique oil formula combining seven

    Ayurvedic ingredients which are eective for strong and healthy hair growth targeting young girls and women.

    Cool oil:Emami catalysed the cool oil category in India through Navratna Oil, enjoying ~60% market share by volume and 65.5% share

    by value. The company is an undisputed leader in the cooling oil category.

    Exhibit 4: Revenue & EBITDA Growth (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 6: Penetration Level (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 5: Key Brands & Presence

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Recent acquisition of Kesh King Brand, accounts for around

    75% gross margin and 45% EBITDA margin as compared

    to the other products in the portfolio. Kesh King Brand is

    expected to drive the top line growth by around 8% to 10%additionally. This will enable Emami to record higher margins

    in FY17E and FY18E. Emami has also launched new Stock

    Keeping Units (SKUs) to increase the rural penetration

    targeting middle age women.

    It is observed that Emami enjoys market leadership position across all the brands. The fastest growing category amongst all is

    the Navratna Brand growing at 17% CAGR in last 5 years. However, Navratna has very low penetration across India. The major

    market for Navratna cooling oil is North India. With low penetration of Navratna and being the market leader, it is expected to

    grow at high pace.

    16.6%   16.9%

    7.2%

    21.8%

    14.3%

    16.3%  17.1%

    12.2%   12.7%

    11.8%

    7.5%   7.1%

    20.9%   23.5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    F Y12 F Y13 FY14 FY15 F Y16E F Y17E F Y18E

    Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%)

         7     5     2     0

         4     3     9     0

         7     3     7     0

         3     8     0     0

    17.0%   11.0%   13.0%   15.0%

    60.5%

    77.7%

    56.2%62.6%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    N avratna Boroplus Zandu Fair &Handsome

    Market Size (Rs. Mn) CAGR (5yrs) (RHS) Market Share (%) (RHS)

    17.0%

    26.0%32.0%

    70.0%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    Navratna Boroplus Zandu Fair &Handsome

    Penetration (%)

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Emami Ltd

    Skin care:

    Skin care accounted for around 30% of Emami’s revenues and a higher share of prots. Emami is the leader in the antiseptic

    cream category and in the men’s fairness cream segment which it pioneered. Its Navratna Cool Talc (niche cooling positioning)

    has substantially increased market share in the cool talc category.

    Strong Balance Sheet:

    With very moderate level of capital expenditure required in the business, Emami has very strong balance sheet, earning an

    average RoE of 42.9% & RoCE of 40.7% in last 4 years. Emami enjoys negative working capital for FY15 and expects to maintain

    at same level, which is healthy sign for any business. Its average net debt to equity is -0.3x for last 4 years on consolidated basis.

    Summary:

    Emami has been an interesting growth story in the Indian FMCG sector with a net prot CAGR of more than 20% in the last

    ve years. We expect that Emami is better positioned for faster growth; driven by (1) its entry into new categories, (2) scale up

    of the Zandu Health Care Division (HCD) and (3) growth in international business. Emami looks well placed with strategy of

    innovation and creation of strong portfolio of niche products, many of which are based on traditional ayurvedic formulations.

    Most of these products have high gross margins - highest among domestic peers, along with the low penetration of most of its

    categories, gives the opportunity for strong growth in the years ahead. We expect Emami’s top line to grow at 17% CAGR over

    FY17E-FY18E assisted along with new launches like ‘She’ feminine hygiene, ‘HE’ deodorants, etc. to contribute to additional

    revenue growth.

    Exhibit 7: International Market Share (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 8: Geography-wise Revenue Segmentation - Q3FY16 (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 9: International Revenue Segmentation (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research, MENAP: Middle East, North Africa & Pakistan

    SAARC & SEA: South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation & South East Asia

    CISEE: Commonwealth of Independent States & Eastern Europe

    International Business:

    The international business of Emami contributes around 17%

    of the total revenue; the international business has recorded

    16% CAGR from FY11 to FY15, during Q3FY16 international

    business grew by 11% and by 14% in 9MFY16. Emami

    also enjoys leadership position in international markets; the

    Navratna cooling oil and Fair & Handsome dominate the

    markets across UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh. The

    company expects robust growth in top line from international

    business going forward.

    93.0%

    45.0%

    91.0%

    37.0%

    47.0%

    30.0%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Navratna Fair & Handsome

    UAE Saudi Arabia Bangladesh

    Domestic83.0% International

    17.0%

    SAARC &SEA

    44.0%

    MENAP35.0%

    CISEE12.0%

    Others9.0%

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Emami Ltd

    Exhibit 10: Business Assumptions

    Y/E Mar (Rs. Mn) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Comments

    Revenue 22172 25334 29473 34504

    We expect that Emami is better positioned for faster growth;

    driven by (1) its entry into new categories, (2) scale up of

    the Zandu Health Care Division (HCD) and (3) growth in

    international business, along with the low penetration of mostof its categories, give the opportunity for strong growth in the

    years ahead. We expect Emami’s top line to grow at 17%

    CAGR over FY17E-FY18E assisted along with new launches

    like ‘She’ feminine hygiene, ‘HE’ deodorants, etc. to contribute

    to additional revenue growth.

    Revenue Growth (%) 21.8 14.3 16.3 17.1

    EBITDA 5401 5784 6992 8634

    Most of the products of Emami have high gross margins -

    highest among domestic peers, the recent acquisition of Kesh

    King, which has around 75% gross margin, is expected to

    drive the EBITDA growth ahead of Sales growth.

    EBITDA Margins (%) 24.4 22.8 23.7 25.0

    PAT (normalized) 4856 5240 6309 7743

    Emami has been an interesting growth story in the Indian

    FMCG sector with a net prot CAGR of more than 20% in

    the last ve years. With high gross margin products in the

    portfolio and better product mix, Emami has earned more

    than 20% PAT and it is expected to grow at ~22% CAGR from

    FY17E-FY18E.

    Fully Diluted EPS (Rs.) 21.4 23.1 27.8 34.1

    Emami’s EPS has registered CAGR of 9.1% from FY11 to

    FY15 and it is expected to register double digit growth during

    FY17E and FY18E. Emami has very strong balance sheet,

    earning an average RoE of 42.9% & RoCE of 40.7% in last

    4 years, it is expected to maintain its RoE and RoCE at samelevel going forward.

    Fully Diluted EPS Growth (%) 20.7 7.9 20.4 22.7

    Capex (ex. Acquisition) - cash capex (1098) (500) (844) (887)

    Net CFO 5340 4247 5484 6761

    Net Debt (3347) (4852) (6716) (9321)

    Free Cash Flow 4243 3747 4640 5874

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 11: Karvy vs Consensus

    Karvy Consensus Divergence (%) CommentsRevenues (Rs. Mn)

    FY16E 25334 26476 (4.3) We have moderate outlook on volume and realizations growth.

    Revenue is expected to grow at CAGR of 16.7% during

    FY16E-18E.FY17E 29473 31691 (7.0)

    PAT (Rs. Mn)

    FY16E 5240 4905 6.8With a net prot CAGR of more than 20% in the last ve years

    and with high gross margin products in the portfolio and better

    product mix, Emami has earned more than 20% PAT and it is

    expected to grow at ~22% CAGR from FY17E-FY18E.FY17E 6309 5979 5.5

    EPS (Rs.)

    FY16E 23.1 21.7 6.2 Emami’s EPS has registered CAGR of 9.1% from FY11-FY15

    and it is expected to register double digit growth during FY17E

    and FY18E.FY17E 27.8 26.8 3.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Emami Ltd

    Exhibit 12: Revenue (Rs. Mn), Revenue Growth (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 15: PAT (Rs. Mn), PAT Margin (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 13: EBITDA (Rs. Mn), EBITDA Margin (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 14: EBIT (Rs. Mn), EBIT Margin (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 16: EPS (Rs.), RoE & RoCE (%)

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    We expect that Emami is better positioned for faster growth driven by

    (1) its entry into new categories, (2) scale up of the Zandu Health Care

    Division (HCD) and (3) growth in international business, along with the low

    penetration of most of its categories, give the opportunity for strong growth

    in the years ahead. We expect Emami’s top line to grow at 17% CAGR

    over FY17E-FY18E assisted along with new launches like ‘She’ feminine

    hygiene, ‘HE’ deodorants, etc. to contribute to additional revenue growth.

    Emami has been an interesting growth story in the Indian FMCG sector

    with a net prot CAGR of more than 20% in the last ve years. With high

    gross margin products in the portfolio and better product mix, Emami has

    earned PAT margin more than 20% and it is expected to grow at ~22%

    CAGR from FY17E to FY18E.

    Most of the products of Emami have high gross margins - highest among domestic peers, the recent acquisition of Kesh King,

    which has around 75% gross margin, is expected to drive the EBITDA growth ahead of sales growth.

    Emami’s EPS has registered CAGR of 9.1% from FY11 to FY15 and it is

    expected to register double digit growth during FY17E and FY18E. Emami

    has very strong balance sheet, earning an average RoE of 42.9% & RoCE

    of 40.7% in last 4 years, it is expected to maintain its RoE and RoCE at

    same level going forward.

         1     6     9     9     1

         1     8     2     0     8

         2     2     1     7

         2

         2     5     3     3

         4

         2     9     4     7

         3

         3     4     5     0

         4

    16.9%

    7.2%

    21.8%14.3%

    16.3%17.1%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    5000

    15000

    25000

    35000

         F     Y     1     3

         F     Y     1     4

         F     Y     1     5

         F     Y     1     6     E

         F     Y     1     7     E

         F     Y     1     8     E

    Revenue (Rs. Mn) YoY Growth (%)

         4     4     9     4

         5     0     2     3

         5     4     0     1

         5     7     8     4

         6     9     9     2

         8     6     3     4

    26.4%

    27.6%

    24.4%

    22.8%

    23.7%

    25.0%

    20%

    22%

    24%

    26%

    28%

    30%

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    EBITDA (Rs. Mn) EBITDA Margin (%)

         3     7     5     3

         4     7     1     4

         5     9     7     6

         6     5     9     9

         7     9     3     5

         9     7     2     8

    22.1%  25.9%

    27.0%26.0%

    26.9%

    28.2%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    0

    3000

    6000

    9000

    12000

    FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    EBIT (Rs. Mn) EBIT Margin (%)

         3     1     4     7

         4     0     2     5

         4     8     5     6

         5     2     4     0

         6     3     0     9   7

         7     4     3

    18.5%

    22.1%   21.9%20.7%

      21.4%22.4%

    15%

    18%

    20%

    23%

    25%

    0

    3000

    6000

    9000

         F     Y     1     3

         F     Y     1     4

         F     Y     1     5

         F     Y     1     6     E

         F     Y     1     7     E

         F     Y     1     8     E

    PAT (Rs . Mn) PAT Margin (%)

         2

         0 .     8

         1     7

     .     7

         2

         1 .     4

         2     3 .     1

         2     7 .     8

         3     4

     .     1

    42.4%

    47.1% 44.9%

    38.3% 37.9% 38.1%39.5%

    45.6%43.1%

    37.0%   36.7%  37.1%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    EPS (Rs.) (LHS) RoE (%)

    RoCE (%)

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Emami Ltd

    Exhibit 17: Company Snapshot (Ratings)

    Low High

      1 2 3 4 5

    Quality of Earnings  3  

    Domestic Sales  3  

    Exports  3  Net Debt/Equity  3  

    Working Capital Requirement  3  

    Quality of Management  3  

    Depth of Management  3  

    Promoter  3  

    Corporate Governance  3  Source: Company, Karvy Research

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Valuation & Outlook 

    At CMP of Rs.1007, the stock is trading at P/E of 29.5x for FY18E. With the anticipated increase in top line due to high margin

    products in the portfolio, rising temperature across India, strong brand positioning, innovation and new product launches which

    were favourably received by the market, with strong balance sheet & nancial ratios, we expect that the consumer expenditure

    will further increase as the economy revives and hence there will be growth in Emami’s top line and bottom line as well. Based

    on P/E of 38.5x, we initiate the coverage with a “BUY” rating for a Target Price of Rs.1313 representing an upside of 30% for a

    period of 12-15 months.

    Exhibit 18: PE Band

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 19 (a): Comparative Valuation Summary

    CMP (Rs.)Mcap

    (Rs. Mn)

    EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) EPS (Rs.)

    FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E

    Emami Ltd 1007 228500 41.5 35.7 31.7 46.8 40.4 36.2 21.4 23.1 27.8

    GCPL 1381 470209 26.9 33.3 28.3 39.1 41.6 34.4 26.6 33.2 39.6

    Marico Ltd 254 32853 28.1 30.1 25.9 46.4 30.2 25.3 4.5 5.8 6.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 19 (b): Comparative Operational Metrics Summary

    CAGR % (FY15-17E) RoE (%) Price Perf (%) Net Sales (Rs. Mn)

    Sales EBITDA EPS FY15 FY16E FY17E 3m 6m 12m FY15 FY16E FY17E

    Emami Ltd 15.3 13.8 14.0 44.9 38.3 37.9 (0.1) (4.0) 7.4 22172 25334 29473

    GCPL 12.7 18.5 22.0 22.1 24.1 24.1 7.9 2.2 22.3 82422 90408 104638

    Marico Ltd 10.3 18.6 22.2 36.1 35.1 34.1 16.9 32.2 29.6 57203 61879 69564

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    40

    50

    60

    70

     Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

    P/E Average 1SD 2SD -1SD -2SD

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    Key Risks

     y Competition.

     y Volatility in raw material prices.

    Peer Comparison

    Exhibit 20: Revenue Growth (%)

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 22: RoE (%)

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 21: EBITDA Margin (%)

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 23: Dividend Payout Ratio (%)

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    7.2%

    21.8%

    14.3%   16.3%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

    Emami GCPL Marico

    27.6%

    24.4%22.8%   23.7%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

    Emami GCPL Marico

    47.1%44.9%

    38.3%37.9%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

    Emami GCPL Marico

    27.0%

    54.4%

    45.0%

    46.2%  38.7%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

    Emami GCPL Marico

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Financials

    Exhibit 24: Income Statement

    YE Mar (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Revenues 18208 22172 25334 29473 34504

    Growth (%) 7.2 21.8 14.3 16.3 17.1

    Operating Expenses 13185 16772 19550 22480 25870

    EBITDA 5023 5401 5784 6992 8634

    Growth (%) 11.8 7.5 7.1 20.9 23.5

    Depreciation & Amortization 961 343 383 428 476

    Other Income 653 918 1197 1371 1570

    EBIT 4714 5976 6599 7935 9728

    Interest Expenses 54 51 51 51 51PBT 4571 5924 6547 7884 9676

    Tax 547 1070 1309 1577 1935

    Adjusted PAT 4025 4856 5240 6309 7743

    Growth (%) 27.9 20.7 7.9 20.4 22.7

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 25: Balance Sheet

    YE Mar (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Cash & Cash Equivalents 2700 3541 5046 6910 9515

    Trade Receivables 793 1027 1057 1232 1443

    Inventories 1411 1267 1589 1867 2198

    Loans & Advances & Others 1149 1206 1716 1963 2298

    Investments 2892 4946 5946 6946 7946

    Net Block 4078 4776 4917 5359 5797

    Total Assets 13023 16763 20273 24278 29197

    Current Liabilities & Provisions 3146 3688 4451 5147 6002

    Debt 218 194 194 194 194

    Other Liabilities 338 574 605 645 694

    Total Liabilities 3702 4457 5250 5985 6890

    Shareholders Equity 227 227 227 227 227

    Reserves & Surplus 9094 12079 14796 18066 22080

    Total Networth 9321 12306 15023 18293 22307

    Total Networth & Liabilities 13023 16763 20273 24278 29197

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    http://www.karvy.com/

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    Exhibit 26: Cash Flow Statement

    YE Mar (Rs. Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    PBT (Before Exceptional Item) 4660 5924 6547 7884 9676

    Depreciation 352 343 383 428 476

    Tax Paid (766) (956) (1309) (1577) (1935)

    Inc/dec in Net WC 596 734 (282) 15 8

    Other Income (586) (1491) (1093) (1267) (1466)

    Other non cash items 69 786 2 2 2

    Cash ow from operating activities 4325 5340 4247 5484 6761

    Inc/dec in capital expenditure (654) (1098) (500) (844) (887)

    Inc/dec in investments (13052) (18111) (1000) (1000) (1000)

    Others 12287 16871 1139 1313 1512

    Cash ow from investing activities (1419) (2337) (361) (531) (375)

    Changes in Debt (751) 19 0 0 0

    Dividend paid (2211) (2120) (2523) (3038) (3729)

    Interest paid (51) (52) (51) (51) (51)

    Eect of Forex Fluctuation 21 (35) 0 0 0

    Cash ow from nancing activities (3013) (2154) (2575) (3090) (3780)

    Net change in cash (128) 814 1311 1863 2605

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 27: Key Ratios

    YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    EBITDA Margin (%) 27.6 24.4 22.8 23.7 25.0

    EBIT Margin (%) 25.9 27.0 26.0 26.9 28.2

    Net Prot Margin (%) 22.1 21.9 20.7 21.4 22.4

    Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 46.2 38.7 40.0 40.0 40.0

    Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4)

    RoE (%) 47.1 44.9 38.3 37.9 38.1

    RoCE (%) 45.6 43.1 37.0 36.7 37.1

    Source: Company, Karvy Research

    Exhibit 28: Valuation Parameters

    YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    EPS (Rs.) 17.7 21.4 23.1 27.8 34.1

    DPS (Rs.) 8.2 8.3 9.2 11.1 13.6

    BV (Rs.) 41.1 54.2 66.2 80.6 98.3

    PE (x) 24.5 46.8 40.4 36.2 29.5

    P/BV (x) 10.6 18.5 14.1 12.5 10.2

    EV/EBITDA (x) 19.2 41.5 35.7 31.7 25.4

    EV/Sales (x) 5.3 10.1 8.2 7.5 6.4

    Source: Company, Karvy Research; *Represents multiples for FY14 & FY15 are based on historic market price

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    Emami Ltd

    Stock Ratings Absolute Returns

    Buy : > 15%

    Hold : 5-15%

    Sell :