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TRANSCRIPT
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2012 (not the movie):A Practical Guide to Disaster Risk and Preparedness
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Outline
A Physical and Human Geography Recalling Disasters in the Philippine Context Two Different Conceptual Frameworks Measuring Disaster Risk at the Manila
Observatory
The Practical Guide to Preparedness
A Physical and Human Geography
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150 years of Tracks up to Sept 2006-Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC, NASA
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Map_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_NoGIA_Adjust.png
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Seismicity of the Philippines
1990-2006
The Philippines is amongthe top ten countries ofthe world with a largeportion of their populationoccupying the lowelevation coastal zone orLECZ
More than 15 millionFilipinos live in LECZs
LECZ is defined as a
coastal zone < 10 meters
of elevation.
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Philippine Poverty Incidence in 2003, 2006, 2009 (NSCB)
Recalling Disasters in the Philippine Context
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Flood Map of Eastern Metro-Manila and Rizal
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AP Photo Philippine Coast Guard AP Photo
Ben Serrano
Nueva Ecija NLEX
Calumpit,Bulacan
Pedring
Two Different Conceptual Frameworks
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Hazard-based Conceptual Framework
A disaster is a situation or event which overwhelms localcapacity, necessitating a request to a national or
international level for external assistance; an unforeseenand sudden event that causes great damage destruction
and human suffering (CRED)
At least on criteria fulfilled:10 or more reported killed; 100more reported affected; declaration of state of
emergency; declaration of a state of emergency; call forinternational assistance
Source: Disaster Category Classification and Peril Terminology forOperational Purposes: Common Accord
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
Munich Reinsurance
Working Paper 264, October 2009
Vulnerabaility-based Conceptual Framework
Disaster Risk The potential losses in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets
and services , which could occur to a particular
community or a society over some specified future time
Source: http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology
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Disasters and Development Trends
Floods and storms cause the most Economic damage is increasingrapidly
the most economic damage, followed (18 times more since 1970)
by forest fires.
Jerry Velazquez,
Philippines experience more storms than The number of disaster events is
other hazards and they cause the highest increasing but the total number
number of deaths of deaths are decreasing
Jerry Velasquez, UNISDR
(2011)
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Vulnerability-based Disaster Risk: WorldRiskIndex
Jorn Birkman of U.N. University-Institute for Environmentaland Human Security defines disasters as :
the result of a complex interaction between a potentially damaging
physical event (e.g. floods, droughts, fire, earthquakes and storms ) andthe vulnerability of a society, its infrastructure, economy and
environment, which are determined by human behaviour .
Unlike current approaches which focus strongly on the analysis of thevarious natural hazards, the WorldRiskIndex, in addition to exposureanalysis focuses on the vulnerability of the population , i.e. itssusceptibility, its capacities to cope with and adapt to natural events aswell as consequences of climate change. Disaster risk is seen as a
function of exposure and vulnerability.
Vulnerability = susceptibility + lack of coping capacity +lack of adaptive capacity
Susceptibility - dependent on public infrastructure,
nutrition, income and the general economic framework
Lack of coping capacity - dependent on
governance , medical care and material security
Lack of adaptive capacity - related to future events
and climate change
Birkmans definition of Disaster Risk places the burden ofrisk on human decisions. These become developmentissues because choices are involved in deciding whereand when human lives, natural resources. properties andinfrastructure will be saved or lost.
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Data:Source UNU-EHS, based on the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platforms , CReSIS , CIESIN and global databases , detailed information at www.WeltRisikoBericht.de
Measuring Disaster Risk at theManila Observatory
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Disaster Risk
Three factors are needed for a disaster to occur- Hazards(H), Exposure (E) and Vulnerability (V)
Vulnerability may be physical, environmental, functional orsocio-economic. These can exist in interdependent ways.
In the case of the Philippines, vulnerability is present beforethe hazard occurs
We are studying how climate change and other hazardswill affect poverty, food supply, shelter, sustainable watersupply and renewable energy
Understanding the nature and dynamics of humanvulnerability is the first step integrated risk analysis, coping
and building adapting capacity
Integrated risk analysis requires interdisciplinarycollaboration. This is the basis of our response
Principal Rules of DRR(Adapted from Mechanism of Natural Disaster Reduction, ADRC, 2005)
H
E V
R
Mitigate the Hazard
Minimize Exposure Decrease Vulnerability
RISKHAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY (UNDP 2004 and UNDRO 1979)
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HAZARDS
Climate/ Weather-Related
TyphoonRainfall
Temperature/ DroughtEl Nio/ La Nia
Sea Level Rise/ Storm Surge
Geophysical
EarthquakeEQ-Induced Landslide
Rainfall-Induced Landslide
Volcanic EruptionTsunamiFlooding
Human Induced-Ecological
DeforestationMining
Climate Change
Pollution
EXPOSURE
Population Density
Health and Nutrition
Education
Land Use/ Cover
River Basins, Water Resources
Regions and CriticalWatersheds
Types of Natural Habitat
Integrated Marine andTerrestrial Priorities
Critical Infrastructure
VULNERABILITY
Human Development Index
Poverty Indices
Women and Children
Elderly and Disabled
Hierarchy of Urban Centers
Socio-Economic Pressures
Regional Gross Value-Addedby Sector
Agri-Industrial Centers andGrowth Network Corridors
Priority Tourism Development
and Investment Areas
Mines and Protected Areas
Theoretical Framework for Risk Analysis
RISK SCORE HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY (UNDP,UNDRO)
Climate ChangeAdaptation:
Reduce vulnerability to:
Disaster RiskManagement
Reduce vulnerability to:
Gradual changes inclimatic parameters
Extreme weather eventswith increased
frequency and severity
Rising mean
temperature
Changes in
precipitationpatterns
Sea levelrise
Climate- andweather-
related hazards
Geophys-ical
hazards
Ecologicalhazards
Direct connection
Potential
connections
Exploit connections
using co-benefitstrategies
Conceptual Linkages of Climate Change Adaptationand Disaster Risk Management (CCA-DRM)
Top-down / Natlgovt policies.
Bottom-up /Community-based
(SOURCE:Cas-llo,Charlo3eKendraG,2007)
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Temperature Change 1961-1970
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
Temperature Change 1971-1980
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
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Temperature Change 1981-1990
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
Temperature Change 1991-2000
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
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Temperature Change 2001-2007
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
Minimum Temperature Change 1961-1970
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
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Minimum Temperature Change 1971-1980
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
Minimum Temperature Change 1981-1990
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
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Minimum Temperature Change 1991-2000
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
Minimum Temperature Change 2001-2007
Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia
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A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficienttechnology
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology (IPCC 2000)
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DEC. 23, 1972 NOV. 26, 2001
Ma. Flordeliza P. Del Castillo
Typhoon track andaccumulated rainfall (mm)
09/24/2011 8PM PHTto
09/28/2011 8AM PHT
Typhoon tracks: JTWCcoordinatesAccumulated rainfall: TRMM
3B42RT
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2) San Roque, Bulacan
1) MO, Quezon City
3
3) Olongapo City,Zambales
2
1
09/26
09/27
09/28
*Ave Sept monthlyrainfall ~ 330mm
acquired September 26 - October 2, 2011
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PEDRING surpassesONDOY at P14.9B
Citizens Disaster Response
Center,,10/10/11
Courtesy of JAXAProvided by ISRO
Courtesy of JAXAProvided by ISRO
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Courtesy of JAXAProvided by ISRO
Courtesy of JAXAProvided by ISRO
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Tiwi and Malinao
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Practical Guide
Every event has a big picture. Disasters aredynamic combination of hazards, exposure andvulnerability.
Climate change changes everything. Find the weakest link. Vulnerability is the most
critical factor in disasters. Preparedness depends
on knowing why, where and how you are
vulnerable
Make a plan. Keep an eye on vulnerabilitywhich may affect interdependent systems.
Learn to ask for help and work with others.Understanding disaster risk requires
interdisciplinary work.
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Build a case for intervention. Evidence-baseddecision support systems are needed for critical
sectors, e.g. land-use management
Everyone needs a Plan B. Invest in infrastructurelinking science and innovation to evidence-
based policy. Redundancy , like relief, will solve
some problems but sustainability needs science.
Set targets. Clear baselines and thresholds foraccountability and transparency are needed in
risk governance.
Communicate risk in the voice of your audience. Be strategic. Invest in long-term change.
Restore the reaching of human and physicalgeography in basic and secondary education.Our children need to know the differencebetween lat and long.
Share.
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Acknowledgements
Manila Observatory Ateneo de Manila University University of the Philippines
National Institute of Geological Sciences
Marine Science Institute
Christian Aid UK for the use of Post-Ondoy Slides Sentinel Asia for the use of Pedring flood images courtesy of
JAXA, provided by ISRO
Chevron Geothermal, Inc. for the use of Tiwi and Malinao Slides Luis A. Yulo Foundation for Sustainable Development for the use
of Lungsod Iskwater Slides and the kind assistance of Ms.
Deborah Tolentino and Ms. Celina Loyzaga
Photo by Neal Oshima
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Thank You