just one thing state of the industry 2008 health+fitness business expo
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SNEWS Survey ResultsTRANSCRIPT
Just One ThingJust One ThingState of the Industry 2008
Health+Fitness Business Expo
SNEWS Survey ResultsSNEWS Survey Results
Retail Sales Up or Down
2005
20052005
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
0102030405060708090
Up Down Even
200520062007
““We don’t sell the cheapest We don’t sell the cheapest vacuum on the market, but vacuum on the market, but price price
is only one component of is only one component of valuevalue….”….”
“…“…And customers want value.”And customers want value.”-David Oreck
The Perfect StormThe Perfect Storm
Soaring inflation in ChinaWeak U.S. dollarHigh steel pricesSkyrocketing petroleum costsIncreased food/energy prices
A Ray of Hope…A Ray of Hope…
• Small-cap stocks on the rise:
“…If you are going to bet on a recovery, small caps are going to lead the charge.”
Other small company indices soaring, while Dow Jones / S&P show only modest gains.
…… or An Endless Storm?or An Endless Storm?
• Deloitte Research Leading Index of Consumer Spending fell again
“Housing prices … are the biggest drag on the index.”
Also: unemployment up, layoffs continue, wage growth stagnates, home prices fall…
Positive ForcesPositive Forces
National agendaIncreased obesityGrowing inactivityMore awarenessSoaring healthcare costs
Total Retail Sales, Fitness EquipTotal Retail Sales, Fitness Equip
2004
20052006
2007 2008
2003
4.6004.700
4.800
4.900
5.000
5.1005.200
5.300
5.400
5.500
5.600
Year
Tota
l Ret
ail $
$$, i
n B
illio
ns
200320042005200620072008
??
Source: NSGA The Sporting Goods Market in 2008
Home Equipment Sales, 2007Home Equipment Sales, 2007(Total retail value: $5.5 billion)(Total retail value: $5.5 billion)
0.1
0.2
1.9
2.6
4.6
8.4
8.4
10.4
55.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Steppers ($5.5m)
Rowers ($10m)
Wt Benches ($106m)
Hand Wts ($142m)
Free Wts ($251m)
Stationary Bikes ($462m)
Ellipticals ($462m)
Home Gyms ($570m)
Treadmills ($3,048m)
% of total units sold
Source: NSGA “The Sporting Goods Market in 2008”
Total Retail Sales, by ChannelTotal Retail Sales, by Channel
SF SFSF
SFSG SG
SGSG
Net
Net Net Net
Sears
Sears
SearsSears
05
1015202530354045
2003 2004 2005 2007
Year
% o
f dol
lars SF
SGNetSears
Source: NSGA “The Sporting Goods Market in 2008”
Gym Membership DeclineGym Membership Decline
32.8
39.4
44.1
41.5
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2000
2004
2007 (forecast)
2007 (readjusted)
2010 goal
Year
U.S. memberships in millions
Source: IHRSA
SNEWS Retail SurveySNEWS Retail Survey
What categories are you
considering carrying, expanding or learning more about
in the next year?
Answers?Answers?• Backyard swingsBackyard swings• Pool tablesPool tables• SaunasSaunas• BikesBikes• Outdoor furnitureOutdoor furniture• Children’s swingsChildren’s swings• Natural / organic productsNatural / organic products
Source: SNEWS Fitness Retailer Survey 2008
Retail ForecastRetail Forecast
407.3 390.9 385.4 399.6363.5 377.3 389.4
441.1
358.1
0
100
200
300
400
500
May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09
Month
Valu
e, in
bill
ions
USD
Source: Financial Forecast Center (Forecasts.org)
Retail Sales TrendRetail Sales Trend
Source: Financial Forecast Center (Forecasts.org)
What isWhat is Just One ThingJust One Thing
we can do this year we can do this year to “save” the industry?to “save” the industry?
Curly:Curly: One thing. Just one thing. One thing. Just one thing.
You stick to that and everything else You stick to that and everything else don't mean sh--.don't mean sh--.
Mitch:Mitch: That's great, but what's the That's great, but what's the one thing?...one thing?...
““That's what you've got to figure out.”That's what you've got to figure out.”
Just One ThingJust One ThingState of the Industry 2008
Health+Fitness Business Expo