june 24-25 2008 11th birmingham-nottingham extragalactic workshop a new strategy with unavoidable...

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June 24-25 2008 June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingha 11th Birmingham-Nottingha m Extragalactic Workshop m Extragalactic Workshop A NEW STRATEGY A NEW STRATEGY WITH UNAVOIDABLE WITH UNAVOIDABLE PARAMETERS ONLY PARAMETERS ONLY Dept. Astronomy & Meteorology Dept. Astronomy & Meteorology Institut of Cosmos Sciences (UB-IEEC) Institut of Cosmos Sciences (UB-IEEC) University of Barcelona University of Barcelona Eduard Salvador-Solé Alberto Manrique Jordi Bracons Sinue Serra Jordi Viñas

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June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

A NEW STRATEGY A NEW STRATEGY WITH UNAVOIDABLE WITH UNAVOIDABLE PARAMETERS ONLYPARAMETERS ONLY

Dept. Astronomy & MeteorologyDept. Astronomy & MeteorologyInstitut of Cosmos Sciences (UB-IEEC)Institut of Cosmos Sciences (UB-IEEC)

University of Barcelona University of Barcelona

Eduard Salvador-SoléAlberto Manrique

Jordi BraconsSinue SerraJordi Viñas

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

SIM & SAMSIM & SAMAt first glance: gravo-hydrodynamical SIMs are based on first principles, while SAMs are a set of recipes with many free parameters so much freedom in SAMs that they can fit almost anything, meaning that their predictive power is doubtful

But: SIMs include many recipes and free parameters of SAMs extremely hard to fit all the observables at once, so we could really trust any SIM or SAM able to do so

On the other hand: SIMs are at the limit of current computing capabilities, while SAMs can still be substantially improved

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Common parametersCommon parametersin SIMs & SAMsin SIMs & SAMs

Ordinary galaxies Ordinary galaxies Star formation efficiencyStar formation efficiency YieldYield Reheating and coupling efficienciesReheating and coupling efficiencies IMFIMF Dust extinctionDust extinction

AGN AGN MBH feeding efficiencyMBH feeding efficiency Duty cycleDuty cycle Reheating and coupling efficienciesReheating and coupling efficiencies MBH radiationMBH radiation

Boundary conditionsBoundary conditions Initial Initial zz for star formation for star formation Initial metallicityInitial metallicity Initial MBH mass Initial MBH mass Ionizing and heating backgroundsIonizing and heating backgrounds

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Extra parameters in SAMsExtra parameters in SAMshybrid versionshybrid versions

DM clusteringDM clustering Halo growth ratesHalo growth rates Formation times, progenitor massesFormation times, progenitor masses

Halo inner structureHalo inner structure Mass and time dependence of NFW concentration Mass and time dependence of NFW concentration Velocity dispersion, anisotropy and angular momentum profilesVelocity dispersion, anisotropy and angular momentum profiles

Dynamical state of trapped gasDynamical state of trapped gas Density profileDensity profile Temperature profileTemperature profile

Disc propertiesDisc properties Scale radiusScale radius

Spheroid propertiesSpheroid properties Effective radius and surface density, Sérsic index Effective radius and surface density, Sérsic index nn

Galaxy interactionsGalaxy interactions Minimum mass for disc destruction, truncation radius, disc-to-bulge Minimum mass for disc destruction, truncation radius, disc-to-bulge

mass transfer efficiencymass transfer efficiency

Extra parameters in SAMsExtra parameters in SAMs non-hybrid versions non-hybrid versions

DM clusteringDM clustering Halo growth ratesHalo growth rates Formation times, progenitor massesFormation times, progenitor masses

Halo inner structureHalo inner structure Mass and time dependence of NFW concentration Mass and time dependence of NFW concentration Velocity dispersion, anisotropy and angular momentum profilesVelocity dispersion, anisotropy and angular momentum profiles

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

PROPOSED STRATEGYPROPOSED STRATEGY

Fully analytical approach using sampled PDFs reaching very high-z and low-M accurate (trivial) boundary conditions distinguishing between accretion & major mergers accurate merger trees accounting for all M at each z accurate integrals over M and evolution over z

Keep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresKeep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditionsby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditions realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds

Minimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesMinimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesless freedom (less extra parameters) less freedom (less extra parameters) more predictive more predictive

Adjust as many observables as possible Adjust as many observables as possible higher internal consistency higher internal consistency more reliable more reliable

Ordinary SAMs Our approach

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

PROPOSED STRATEGYPROPOSED STRATEGY

Fully analytical approach using sampled PDFs reaching very high-z and low-M accurate (trivial) boundary conditions distinguishing between accretion & major mergers accurate merger trees accounting for all M at each z accurate integrals over M and evolution over z

Keep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresKeep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditionsby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditions realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds

Minimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesMinimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesless freedom (less extra parameters) less freedom (less extra parameters) more predictive more predictive

Adjust as many observables as possible Adjust as many observables as possible higher internal consistency higher internal consistency more reliable more reliable

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

PROPOSED STRATEGYPROPOSED STRATEGY

Fully analytical approach using sampled PDFsFully analytical approach using sampled PDFs reaching very high-reaching very high-zz and low- and low-MM accurate (trivial) boundary conditions accurate (trivial) boundary conditions distinguishing between accretion & major mergersdistinguishing between accretion & major mergers accurate merger trees accurate merger trees accounting for all accounting for all MM at each at each zz accurate integrals over accurate integrals over MM and evolution over and evolution over zz

Keep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditions realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds

Minimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesMinimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesless freedom (less extra parameters) less freedom (less extra parameters) more predictive more predictive

Adjust as many observables as possible Adjust as many observables as possible higher internal consistency higher internal consistency more reliable more reliable

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Unavoidable parametersUnavoidable parameters

Ordinary galaxies Ordinary galaxies Star formation efficiencyStar formation efficiency YieldYield Reheating and coupling efficienciesReheating and coupling efficiencies IMFIMF Dust extinctionDust extinction

AGN AGN MBH feeding efficiencyMBH feeding efficiency Duty cycleDuty cycle Reheating and coupling efficienciesReheating and coupling efficiencies MBH radiationMBH radiation

Boundary conditionsBoundary conditions Initial z for star formationInitial z for star formation Initial metallicityInitial metallicity Initial MBH massInitial MBH mass Ionizing and heating backgroundsIonizing and heating backgrounds

Ordinary galaxiesOrdinary galaxies Star formation efficiencyStar formation efficiency YieldYield Reheating and coupling efficienciesReheating and coupling efficiencies IMFIMF Dust extinctionDust extinction

AGNAGN MBH feeding efficiencyMBH feeding efficiency Duty cycleDuty cycle Reheating and coupling efficienciesReheating and coupling efficiencies MBH radiationMBH radiation

NewNew Critical metallicity Critical metallicity Pop III IMF (equivalent to yield and mass fraction locked into MBH) Pop III IMF (equivalent to yield and mass fraction locked into MBH) Fraction of escaping UV photons from ordinary galaxiesFraction of escaping UV photons from ordinary galaxies

Unavoidable parametersUnavoidable parameters- boundary conditions- boundary conditions + molecular cooling + molecular cooling

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

PROPOSED STRATEGYPROPOSED STRATEGY

Fully analytical approach using sampled PDFsFully analytical approach using sampled PDFs reaching very high-reaching very high-zz and low- and low-MM accurate (trivial) boundary conditions accurate (trivial) boundary conditions distinguishing between accretion & major mergersdistinguishing between accretion & major mergers accurate merger trees accurate merger trees accounting for all accounting for all MM at each at each zz accurate integrals over accurate integrals over MM and evolution over and evolution over zz

Keep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditions realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds

Minimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesMinimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesless freedom (less extra parameters) less freedom (less extra parameters) more predictive more predictive

Adjust as many observables as possible Adjust as many observables as possible higher internal consistency higher internal consistency more reliable more reliable

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

PROPOSED STRATEGYPROPOSED STRATEGY

Fully analytical approach using sampled PDFsFully analytical approach using sampled PDFs reaching very high-reaching very high-zz and low- and low-MM accurate (trivial) boundary conditions accurate (trivial) boundary conditions distinguishing between accretion & major mergersdistinguishing between accretion & major mergers accurate merger trees accurate merger trees accounting for all accounting for all MM at each at each zz accurate integrals over accurate integrals over MM and evolution over and evolution over zz

Keep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresKeep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditionsby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditions realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds

Minimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesless freedom (less extra parameters) more predictive

Adjust as many observables as possible Adjust as many observables as possible higher internal consistency higher internal consistency more reliable more reliable

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Connected physics: no extra parametersConnected physics: no extra parameters (except a few)(except a few)

DM clustering: EPS +DM clustering: EPS + frontier between minor and major mergers frontier between minor and major mergers Growing ratesGrowing rates Formation time pdf, progenitor mass pdfFormation time pdf, progenitor mass pdf

Halo inner structureHalo inner structure Mass and time dependence of NFW concentration Mass and time dependence of NFW concentration Velocity dispersion, anisotropy and angular momentum profilesVelocity dispersion, anisotropy and angular momentum profiles

Dynamical state of trapped gasDynamical state of trapped gas Density profileDensity profile Temperature profileTemperature profile

Disc propertiesDisc properties Scale radiusScale radius

Spheroid propertiesSpheroid properties Effective radius and surface density, Sérsic index Effective radius and surface density, Sérsic index nn

Galaxy interactionsGalaxy interactions Minimum mass for disc destruction, galaxy truncation radius, disc-to-bulge mass Minimum mass for disc destruction, galaxy truncation radius, disc-to-bulge mass

transfer efficiencytransfer efficiency

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

DM clusteringDM clustering (EPS + frontier minor/major mergers)(EPS + frontier minor/major mergers)

Halo accretion, formation and destruction ratesHalo accretion, formation and destruction rates (Raig et al. 2001)

Formation time and main progenitor mass PDFs Formation time and main progenitor mass PDFs (Raig et al. 2001)

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Halo inner structure (collapse time increasing function of turnarround radius)Halo inner structure (collapse time increasing function of turnarround radius)

Density Density (Salvador-Solé et al. 2007) KinematicsKinematics (González-Casado et al. 2007)

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Dynamical state of trapped gas (polytropic approximation, self-consistent Dynamical state of trapped gas (polytropic approximation, self-consistent ) )

(Solanes et al. 2005; see also Ostriker et al. 2005)

L LXX vs T vs TX X MMXX vs T vs TXX

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Spheroid properties (major mergers of two galaxies)Spheroid properties (major mergers of two galaxies) 2D and 3D density profiles compared to typical 2D and 3D Sérsic profiles for 2D and 3D density profiles compared to typical 2D and 3D Sérsic profiles for

ellipticals of 3·10ellipticals of 3·1099, 10, 101010, 3·10, 3·1010 10 , 10, 101111 and 3·10 and 3·1011 11 MM⊙⊙

(Serra et al. 2008, in preparation)

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

PROPOSED STRATEGYPROPOSED STRATEGY

Fully analytical approach using sampled PDFsFully analytical approach using sampled PDFs reaching very high-reaching very high-zz and low- and low-MM accurate (trivial) boundary conditions accurate (trivial) boundary conditions distinguishing between accretion & major mergersdistinguishing between accretion & major mergers accurate merger trees accurate merger trees accounting for all accounting for all MM at each at each zz accurate integrals over accurate integrals over MM and evolution over and evolution over zz

Keep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresKeep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditionsby adding molecular cooling and avoiding unjustified boundary conditions realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds

Minimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesless freedom (less extra parameters) more predictive

Adjust as many observables as possible Adjust as many observables as possible higher internal consistency higher internal consistency more reliable more reliable

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

PROPOSED STRATEGYPROPOSED STRATEGY

Fully analytical approach using sampled PDFsFully analytical approach using sampled PDFs reaching very high-reaching very high-zz and low- and low-MM accurate (trivial) boundary conditions accurate (trivial) boundary conditions distinguishing between accretion & major mergersdistinguishing between accretion & major mergers accurate merger trees accurate merger trees accounting for all accounting for all MM at each at each zz accurate integrals over accurate integrals over MM and evolution over and evolution over zz

Keep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresKeep unavoidable parameters only and improve usual proceduresby adding molecular cooling and avoiding boundary conditionsby adding molecular cooling and avoiding boundary conditions realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds realistic metal enrichment, MBH seeds, and ionizing and heating backgrounds

Minimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesMinimize extra parameters by causally connecting physical processesless freedom (less extra parameters) less freedom (less extra parameters) more predictive more predictive

Adjust as many observables as possible higher internal consistency more reliable

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

Cosmic histories predicted Cosmic histories predicted for Zcrit= 10-4 Z⊙, Pop III top-heavy IMF (YPIII= 0.25; MBH/MPIII=0.5) and fesc=0.17

(Manrique et al. 2008, in preparation)

Star formation H ion. fraction

Cold gas UV background

Adjusted parameters:Adjusted parameters:

Zcrit= 10-4 Z⊙

Pop III top-heavy IMF

(YPIII= 0.25; MBH/MPIII= 0.5)

fesc= 0.17

Observed values used:Observed values used:

cg(z~3) ~ 1.8 · 10-3

SFR(z=3) ~ 0.34 M⊙ yr-1 Mpc-3

# ion/baryon (z=4) 7

ZIGM(z=4) > 3.54 · 10-4 Z⊙

zion ~ 6.0 & 9–11

June 24-25 2008June 24-25 2008 11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extr11th Birmingham-Nottingham Extragalactic Workshopagalactic Workshop

ConclusionsConclusions

SAMs have SIMs as guideline, but...SAMs have SIMs as guideline, but...

They are not only more They are not only more practical,practical, but also more but also more easy to improveeasy to improve than SIMs. than SIMs.

E.g., one can include E.g., one can include molecular coolingmolecular cooling and connect physical processes. and connect physical processes.

Doing so, SAMs become even more Doing so, SAMs become even more predictivepredictive and reliableand reliable than SIMs. than SIMs.

THE ENDTHE END