june 12, 2006 joseph romm jromm@cap-e
DESCRIPTION
Global Warming: A Boost to Nuclear Power The Boot to Nuclear Hydrogen. June 12, 2006 JOSEPH ROMM [email protected]. CLIMATE BOTTOM LINE. Most warming goes into oceans & poles Super-hurricanes are now the norm 10 more years of inaction = 4° to 6+° F warming - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
June 12, 2006JOSEPH ROMM
Global Warming:A Boost to Nuclear Power
The Boot to Nuclear Hydrogen
CLIMATE BOTTOM LINE
Most warming goes into oceans & poles Super-hurricanes are now the norm 10 more years of inaction = 4° to 6+° F warming
Greenland goes (20+ feet of sea level rise) 20 years = 6° to 10+° F warming
Serious Antarctic ice loss (80+ feet) Sea level rise 6 to 12 inches per decade possible
June-Nov Sea Surface Temperature and Tropical Storms1880-2003, 5-year running mean
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Nu
mb
er o
f T
rop
ical
Sto
rms
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
Atl
anti
c H
urr
ican
e-F
orm
ing
Reg
ion
°F
T
emp
erat
ure
An
om
aly
(vs.
196
1-19
90)
Number of Tropical Storms Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
At 550 ppm, 60% of top permafrost goes.
At 690, 90% (lt. blue) (Lawrence, NCAR, 2005)
Tundra C ≈ Atmo C
Much of it CH4
Not in IPCC models
TUNDRA FEEDBACK
TIME FOR DELAY HAS RUN OUT
We’re at 380 ppm CO2, rising 2+ ppm/yr If 500 & rising in 2050, plan on 700+ in 2100 Global emissions must peak ~2025 We must cut CO2 emissions >50% by 2050. We must stop building traditional coal plants We must have average new car 60 mpg in 2040
New Coal Build by Decade
0
200
400
600
800
GW
Coa
l
Other Developing 43 90 128
India 16 48 79
China 150 168 226
Transition 1 11 19
OECD 12 184 218
2003-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
Source: IEA, WEO 2004
221
500
670
>$1 trillion in misallocated capital
Unconventional Oil is Climate Disaster
Tar Sands: Use CH4 to make C-intensive fuel Coal-to-Oil: Double the CO2 emissions
Still a bad idea with carbon capture Enhanced Oil Recovery diverts captured CO2
Should NOT be valued as geologic storage Shale: 1.2 GW for 100,000 barrels a day
The 7 Barriers to AFVs
1) High first cost for vehicle
2) Storage (i.e. limited range)
3) Safety and liability
4) High fueling cost (compared to gasoline)
5) Limited fuel stations: Chicken & egg problem
6) Not a cost-effective pollution-reducer
7) Tough competition: Hybrids
The Hype About Hydrogen
“Total time to noticeable impact … is likely to be more than 50 years.” —Heywood, MIT, 7/05
“If I told you ‘never,’ would you be upset?” Toyota’s Bill Reinert on when H2 replaces gas, 1/05
“Forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen.” — James Woolsey, 1/06
After “CO2 emissions from electricity generation are virtually eliminated….” — Science, 7/03
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Makehydrogen
and displaceoil
Makeelectricity
and displacenatural gas
Makeelectricity
and displacecoal
ZERO-CARBON ELECTRICITY USED TO...
Po
un
ds o
f C
O2 S
aved
per
MW
h G
en
era
ted
Car of the Future: Plug in Hybrids
20-mile electric range, then reverts to hybrid Could displace half of gasoline Works best with carbon cap Blend in cellulosic ethanol Why use future clean electricity for H2?
Plug in uses electricity 3 to 4 times more efficientlyMake use of existing infrastructure/vehicles
Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel Costs Three Times More Than Nuclear Electricity
(Idaho National Lab Analysis, 12/05)
David Barber, Nuclear Programs, INL, 3/05
“Not even nuclear energy can turn hydrogen into a winner.”
“There certainly will not be an overabundance of clean energy to squander on an inefficient hydrogen loop, particularly when the same tasks can be accomplished directly with the original electricity. Not this century, anyway.”
2020 Vision
Oil Prices at Current or Higher Levels Global desperation about global warming
Nuclear electricity resurgence very possible Hybrids the dominant vehicle platform Plug-in hybrids the rapidly emerging platform
H2 fuel cell vehicles probably a dead end No future for nuclear hydrogen [email protected]