jun 29 2015 1. timothy garner, noaa acting chief spaceflight meteorology group 2
TRANSCRIPT
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
Jun 29 2015
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2015 Hurricane Season UpdateTimothy Garner, NOAA Acting Chief Spaceflight Meteorology Group
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2015 Hurricane Season in a Nutshell• Lower than average number of storms forecast.
• Around 8 named storms (70% chance of between 6 to 11)• Already two: TS Ana and TS Bill
• Historical analogs and modelled seasonal conditions favor develop in a belt from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic north of the usual Main Development Region
• TS Ana and TS Bill fit this pattern• This pattern could allow activity near the higher range of the NOAA predicted
number of storms.
• Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too?
• Statistical correlation is insignificant. Overall early season activity, high or low, has little bearing on the season as a whole.
• BUT, for June/July storms south of 22N and east of 77W there is a strong association with activity for the rest of the year. This year no named storms in that area may mean below normal season.
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Factors for 2015 Season
El Nino occurring and forecast to strengthen and last through winter 2015-2016 -- El Nino suppresses hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (La Nina favors hurricanes)
-- Primary factor in this season’s outlook
Near to slightly below average Sea Surface Temperatures in tropical Atlantic
-- 2015 observed June SST pattern in the Atlantic is the opposite of that observed in highly active years.
The “Multi-Decadal Signal” not a factor -- Long term cycle of warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures
favorable for hurricanes in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) since 1995 may have ended.
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2015
Forecast Group Number of Named Storms
Number of Hurricanes
Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-2010)
12 6.5 2
NOAA (May 27 issue)*included TS Ana
6 – 1170% chc < normal
20% chc near normal10% chc > normal
3 – 6 0 - 2
Colorado State (June Issue)(April issue)
8* (4.3-11.7)
7*included Ana
3 (0.9 – 5.1) 1 (0-2.6)
UKMET OfficeWSI Penn StateNC StateCoastal Carolina UniversityCuban Met. ServiceTropical Storm Risk (TSR), Inc.
998 589
10** **(2 TS 1H landfall)
N/A5
N/A2434
N/A1
N/A12
N/A1
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JSC ImpactsTropical Storm Bill
• 3 day rainfall totals:• B30: 3.38”• B421: 3.82”• EFD: 2.98”
• Max wind gust:• B30: 43 mph• EFD: 30 mph• JSC average winds < TS force
• 8+ JENS messages issued by SMG about Bill
• Highlighted minor to moderate flooding threat from 4.5” to 6” rain on average with possibility of isolated locations nearby receiving 6 to 10”
• Wind gusts to tropical storm strength• No or neglible storm threat to JSC• Additional e-mail updates sent to JSC
emergency managers and ISS FD’s
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Tropical Storm Bill Path (Wikipedia)
NOAA/NWS and Houston Chronicle
10-13”
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NamedStorms
HurricanesMajor
Hurricanes( Cat 3 +)
Actual 8 4 2NOAA / NWS 8-13 3-6 1-2
Colorado State10 4 1
Weather Underground
7-9 1-3 0-2
NormalSeason
12 6 3
2014 Hurricane OutlooksVerification
Hurricane Overview
Alan Mather, Chief of Protective Services
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Hurricane Preparedness Levels
Level 5 – AWARENESS (Jun-1 through Nov 30)
Level 4 – CONCERN (impact to JSC in ~72 hrs)
Level 3 – PREPARATION (impact in ~48 hrs) Level 2 – CLOSURE (impact to JSC in ~36
hrs) Level 1 – RIDEOUT Assessment Recovery
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Decisions and RisksWhy Levels 4, 3, 2, 1 don’t always work…
Concern to Prep…. Weekend? Late in the day? Holidays? What are schools doing? Speed, size of storm? Certainty of track?
Prep to Closure Employees mentally shutting
down Different personal timeframes Mandatory evacuation zones
Riding it Out Systematic shut down (~ 6 hrs to
shutdown plant) vs Hard shut down (boiler recovery)
Electrical grid shut down How many stay onsite to ride-out?
Entire first wave recovery team 5 man team (recovery team to Merrill
Center) Team to run utilities if we leave power
up No one (small team to Webster)
When does the team leave?
Recovery Site Utilities and services Safety Community services (hospitals, gas etc.)
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Senior Staff Communications
Senior Staff/Away team Telecom Telecom number and passcode GETS card
jscsos.com >Senior Staff Info page Login and password
ENS Center Closure Notice via text and email HR check-in survey Recall of employees
ENS+ VPN access (RSA Token and NDC Password)
Recovery TELL EMPLOYEES NOT TO RETURN UNTIL RECALLED
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www.jscsos.com
Username is your email address.You will be provided a password
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AH-Bill Kerneckel
Senior StaffJune 29, 2015
ENS PlusJSC’s HR Employee Accountability Tool
Why ENS Plus?
ENS Plus is a JSC HR employee accountability tool for Senior Level Management and Supervisors to keep status on their employees after an ENS Survey notification has been sent out.
ENS Plus features Rolls up employee survey data into an organization view
for supervisors and management. [# safe, # not ok, # of unknown, etc.]
Google Map display of employee’s residential address Can report out on simultaneous emergency events Can report on contractor and civil servant survey data Tool will work with any mobile device while on the NASA
network. (iPad, iPhone, Android, etc.)
• Who Can Access ENS Plus? Civil Servant Supervisors Emergency Operations
HR Contractor POCs
URL - https://ensplus.jsc.nasa.govNew
For questions on JSC ENS Plus please contact: