Julie Lambert, Ph.D.Associate Professor of Environmental and Science Education

Department of Teaching and Learning Florida Atlantic University

*Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., & Roser-Renouf, C. (2010) Global Warming’s Six Americas, January 2010. Yale Univ and George Mason Univ. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change. http://environment.yale.edu/uploads/SixAmericasJan2010.pdf

Americans’ Evolving Views on Global Warming

Also see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/04/22/how-americans-see-global-warming-in-8-charts/

The general public is divided about climate change because…

People more likely reject the science when the economy is not doing well.

A small number of scientists disagree with the findings of the 98% of climate scientists.

Weather is seen as an “act of God” and some people cannot accept the idea that humans could affect it.

Scientists do not communicate effectively to the public.

There is widespread scientific illiteracy.

There is a well-organized and well-funded disinformation campaign.

The media portrays climate change as a controversy.

(Sommerville and Hassol, October, 2011) www.climatecommunication.org

Skeptic Claim 1. There no scientific consensus about causes of climate change.

From The Inquisition of Climate Science by James Lawrence Powell

What the scientific evidence shows …

1957-1958 - Charles David Keeling and Roger Revelle began

measuring CO2.Charles Keeling and Al Gore

1860s - Measured the amount of radiant heat that certain gases could

absorb and transmit.

John Tyndall

1896 - Performed calculations that concluded

a doubling of CO2 would increase temperature by

several degrees.

Svante Arrhenius

How Long Scientists Have Known About Humans’ Role in Changing Climate

The Consensus of the

Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)

• IPCC (1990) “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”

• IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence (>50%) suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”

• IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”

• IPCC (2007) “Warming is unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past 50 years is very likely (>90%) due to increases in greenhouse gases.”

And the Consensus of ………..

Skeptic Claim 2. Extreme weather events (such as precipitation and flooding, drought,

heat waves) are not increasing, but just part of the natural cycle.

What the scientific evidence shows …

Skeptic Claim 3. Earth’s climate (global average temperature) has changed in the past

and recent changes are NOT unusual.

Climate has changed over geological time, buthuman civilization has flourished during a10,000-year period of relatively stable, smalltemperature range until now….

What the scientific evidence shows …

Carbon Emissions from Human Activity

The rate of warming over the past century is unusual.

The rapid warming coincides with increasing carbon dioxide.

The increasing carbon dioxide is due to human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels.

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Skeptic Claim 4. Natural variability is causing the recent changes in temperature, not

human activity.

What the scientific evidence shows …

Skeptic Claim 4. Natural variability is causing the recent changes in temperature, not

human activity.

Natural Causes: Sun, Volcanoes, Orbital Changes and Natural Cycles

Natural Causes and Human Contributions (Burning of Fossil Fuels)

What the scientific evidence shows …

Skeptic Claim 5. There is not enough evidence that Earth is warming.

What the scientific evidence shows …

More Scientific Evidence of Warming…

More Scientific Evidence of Warming…

© Harold R. Wanless, August 2,2012

Skeptic Claim 6. The impacts of a few degrees of global warming would NOT be that harmful to

life (including humans) on Earth. Warming could even be good.

Number of Days with Temperature Exceeding 90 F⁰

21st Century Climate Change

Model projections of summer average temperature and

precipitation changes in Illinois and Michigan for midcentury

(2040-2059), and end-of-century (2080-2099), indicate that

summers in these states are expected to feel progressively more like summers currently

experienced in states south and west.

Most Recent U.S. Government Projectionsby NOAA, United States Geological Survey, Department of Defense, Environmental

Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and the US Army Corps of Engineers

Lower projections

not meaningful

Ocean warming & limited ice melt

= 4.1 to 6.6 feet by 2100

= 1.3 to 2.1 feet by 2050

NOAA, December 6, 2012

No Ice Sheet Melt

Linear Historical

Ocean warming & largest anticipated

ice melt

As the century progresses,South Florida and the World

will be undergoing dramatic to catastrophic changes

because of rapidly accelerating sea level rise.

TODAY + 2 FEET + 4 FEET + 6 FEET

TODAY by 2060 by 2085 by 2112

INUNDATION PROJECTIONS, LEVEL AT MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW)

Maps by Harold R. Wanless

Photo by Jon Ullman

MIAMI BEACH OCTOBER 15, 2012

Miami Beach tidal flooding at 10th and Alton, (aka. the corner of climate change and clean energy.). Photo is 2 ½ hours after high tide. No rain. No water main break. No hurricane. Just a twice daily high tide.

ON TOP OF THESE PROJECTIONS ARE HIGHER SEASONAL TIDES

Skeptic Claim 7. Humans cannot reduce the effects of global warming even if it is happening. It is too late to stop global

warming, so we should just adapt.

Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/

What is a Stabilization “Wedge”?

Energy Efficiency & Conservation

Stabilization Triangle

Renewables & Biostorage

15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

Nuclear Power 2010 2060

TriangleStabilization

Fossil Fuel-Based Strategies

A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr.

Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years.

What Can We Do?Leading climatologist, Dr. James Hansen, says we quickly need to reduce atmospheric CO2 to 325-350 ppm.

+1 ppm/yr

+2 ppm/yr

350 ppm

Presently 390 ppm and rising about 3 ppm / year

325 ppm

This probably will not slow the first 3-5 feet of sea level rise,

but may be a step for limiting a catastrophic greater rise.

Caroline Lewis, The CLEO Institute - www.CLEOInstitute.org

Why Climate Change Education Is So Important

• Most American teenagers and adults never learned basic climate science in school, but most would like to know more (Leiserowitz 2010; Miller 2012).

• Those who have a basic understanding of the science are more concerned with addressing climate change (Leiserowitz 2010, 2011; Miller 2012).

• Climate policy in the US has reached an impasse despite clear evidence of climate change from satellite data and ground observations.

Challenges Slowing the Development and Delivery of Effective Climate Change Education

• Research demonstrates that the underlying science is inherently difficult to understand (Boyes & Stanisstreet, 1993, 1997, 2001; Coyle, 2005) and for educators to competently teach (Abbasi, 2006; National Research Council, 2007; Storksdieck, 2006).

• Climate change education requires a cross-disciplinary approach (earth systems, social, behavioral, and economic sciences).

• There has been a lack of coordination, cooperation, and alignment of overall education strategies, often resulting in a duplication of efforts.

• Finally, climate change has become a highly politicized topic (like evolution). A person’s willingness to be educated about climate change depends on their attitude toward the issue (Gardner & Stern, 2008; Leiserowitz & Smith, 2010).

RESEARCH ON PRESERVICE TEACHERS’ KNOWLEDGE AND PERCEPTIONS ABOUT CLIMATE SCIENCE

Pre-Assessments• Inventory of Perceptions about Climate Change (IPCC)• Climate Science Inventory of Knowledge (CSIK)

Climate Change Instruction• Climate Change Study Guide• Series of Lessons & Investigations• Evidence-Based Argumentation (Recent semesters)Post-Assessments• Inventory of Perceptions about Climate Change (IPCC)• Climate Science Inventory of Knowledge (CSIK)

Lambert, J., Lindgren, J., & Bleicher, R. (2012). Assessing elementary science methods students’ understanding about global climate change. International Journal of Science Education. 34(7-8), 1167-1188.

http://www.coe.fau.edu/faculty/lambert/

Concern About Global Warming of Preservice Teachers Compared to Generation X

n = 149, preservice teachers; n = 2,924, Generation X

Our FAU preservice teachers (elementary science methods students) are much more alarmed about global warming than the Generation X students polled by University of Michigan.(http://www.sampler.isr.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/GenXReport.pdf)

CSI: South FloridaClimate Science Investigations: South Florida

Climate Science Investigations: South FloridaA NASA-Funded Curriculum Development Project to

Address Climate Illiteracy (PI – Julie Lambert) (

http://131.91.162.18/nasa/

Framework for Climate Science Argumentation

Written / Oral Communication of Argument

JustificationThe rationale or reasoning why each type of evidence warrants the scientific claim

EvidenceThe data that supports the

scientific claim

Evaluation (Critique) of Argument

Skeptic’s Claim

Scientists’ Claim

Rebuttal to the Skeptic Argument

Adapted from Thomlin 1958

Recommendations from the Climate and Energy Literacy Summit, December 7-9, 2012

A national initiative over next 10 years is to significantly increase climate and energy literacy in order to prepare 56 million students in K-12 education, 20 million more in post-secondary schools, and the millions of other professionals, including military, farmers, coastal residents, and many others who make climate and energy related decisions.

So What’s at Stake?

“Human civilization has reached a fork in the road we have long traveled. Once of two

paths must be chosen. Both lead us into the unknown.

But one leads toward the destruction of the climate balance on which we depend, the

depletion of irreplaceable resources that sustain us, the degradation of uniquely human

values, and the possibility that civilization as we know it would come to an end.

The other leads us to the future.”

(From The Future: Drivers of Global Change by Al Gore, 2013)

How I Became Interested in Climate!

Earth Science Teacher

Masters of Science inOceanography

Interest in weather and climate began in middle school earth science!A special teacher, weather observation project, and film – “The Unchained Goddess”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lgzz-L7GFg

For resources, please email: jlambert@fau.edu

http://www.coe.fau.edu/faculty/lambert

Is this our future?