Meeting the C21st Food Challenge

Julian Cribb FTSE

Food Security Forum Sydney University

March 17, 2014

A ‘wicked’ problem...

DEMAND: 216,000 more people every

day More babies + longer lives Population >11 bn by 2100 Meat demand soaring in NICs Food demand +100% by

2060s -40% climate penalty by 2100

LIMITATIONS:

‘Peak water’ ‘Peak land’ ‘Peak oil’ ‘Peak P’ ‘Peak fish’ ‘R&D drought’ ‘Capital drought’ ‘Climate extinction’

Peak water

Disappearing rivers Vanishing lakes

Groundwater mining

Shrinking glaciers

“Current estimates indicate we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in

25 years time...” – Colin Chartres, IWMI

Warnings “Over the next two decades, the average supply of water per person will drop by a third, possibly condemning millions to an avoidable premature death.” - Nature

"A shortage of water could spell increased conflicts in the future.” - Ban Ki-Moon, UN “Many countries will almost certainly experience water problems and state failure, and increased regional tensions,” - US National Intelligence Estimate

The struggle for water Energy sector - tripling

by 2050 Cities - doubling by

2050 Minerals processing -

doubling by 2050 Manufacturing Environment …..how much is left for

farmers and food?

Peak Land : 2001? World farming area has shrunk by 540,000 sq kms in the

past decade.

4.94

4.88

4.854.864.874.884.89

4.94.914.924.934.944.95

Year 2000-2009

Unsustainable: 10 kilos of soil lost for every meal eaten

“The Earth is losing topsoil at a rate of 75

to 100 GT. per year. If soil loss continues at present rates, it is estimated that there is only another 48 years of topsoil left.”

- Marler & Wallin, Nutrition Security Institute, USA, 2006

“... land and water systems now face the risk of progressive breakdown of their productive capacity due to excessive demographic pressure and unsustainable agricultural practices.” - FAO SOLAW Report 2011

Megacities: mega-risks

By 2050...

7.7 billion will live in cities

Total urban area = China

Urban water use 2800 cu kms

Cities cannot feed themselves

By 2030...

Peak oil

Car numbers growing 8x faster than oil supplies

Food & oil prices are in lockstep

Why we must recycle nutrients

Peak phosphorus

< 30-50% of world’s food is currently wasted or lost post-harvest

Sources of artificial fertilisers will be scarce by 2050 >

Hotting up: +4o by 2100

Source: IPCC

4-5 degrees global warming by 2100: IPCC 10% of food lost for each 1o of warming = We will need 150% more food by ‘peak people’

Re-arm ag science

R&D stagnation

Farm clearances

• Modern food system could displace 1.5 billion farmers and smallholders by 2050

• Affects all countries • Affects 1 in 5 humans • Driven by globalisation of food chains • Area = Western Europe taken by ‘land

grabbers’ since 2001

Our ‘killer diet’ 2 people in 3 now die of a

diet-related disease (The Lancet)

75% of healthcare costs linked to chronic disease

1.4bn overweight/obese Diabetes: world’s 7th largest

killer by 2030 (WHO)

Food deaths are preventable….

What are the solutions?

Reinvent farming & food systems: sustainable, low-input eco-farming Reinvest massively in food research Reinvent the global diet: so it is

healthier, damages less planet Redesign cities: to recycle water,

nutrients, energy back into food.

Urban farming: climate-proof?

Green cities

Bioculture boom

25,000 edible plants

Fish farm boom World demand for 550mt of meat and fish by 2100 will require 2-3 bn tonnes extra of plant-based feed.

Algae boom By 2050 algae could be the world’s biggest cropping industry supplying transport fuels, health food, stockfeed, plastics, textiles, chemicals, paper etc

‘Oil provinces’ of the 21st century

Regions of high solar density where ‘green oil’ can be grown efficiently.

Future farming

Double global investment in ag and food R&D to $200bn by reducing military spending 10%

This will reduce conflict AND boost food security Ecofarming: combine best of high-tech farming

with permaculture and automation Radically reduce all resource inputs. Major focus on soil biology, crop science, nutrient

cycling, soil, water, energy & carbon conservation Systems that operate at large and small farm

scales, across landscapes

Robot tractor

Revegetate, recarbonise, rehydrate

A new respect for food A Food Year in every junior school on Earth Teach respect for food: how to eat for health

and to sustain our food supply OR

? OR?

Link 1.8bn farmers at lightspeed…

Visit virtual farms. Plan together

Connect to markets and other farmers

Access to latest science

Farm direct > sales

Farmers learning from farmers

Great challenges … wonderful opportunities Develop eco-farming by global sharing

of knowledge between farmers Reshape world diet for health and

sustainability Design cities that do not waste Reward farmers for producing good

food and caring for water, land, wildlife and atmosphere.

Debate global food security on: www.sciencealert.com.au/global-

Thank you

“The Coming Famine” is published by the University of California

Press and CSIRO Publishing.

It was supported by the Crawford Fund and Land &

Water Australia.