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Investment Research

Market movers ahead: Inflation across the CEE and Turkish ratedecision

Even though Turkish inflation continues to be well-above the Turkish central bank’s

(TCMB) official inflation target of 6.5% and the recovery in the Turkish economy

appears to be quite robust, the TCMB continues to keep its relatively dovish stance.

Hence, the Turkish central bank will keep its wait-and-see stance in monetary policy

keeping rates unchanged next week with the key policy rate at 6.5% at its next week’s

MPC meeting.

Inflation for June is due for release across the CEE region. See page 7, where we take

closer look at the inflation outlook in the EMEA region.

FX Outlook: Will the summer calm hold... likely not

The total score in the Scorecard – adding up the individual score for all of the currencies

in the Scorecard – has during this week been the most negative since February 2009 – and

it is of course well-known that that indication correctly forecast a major sell-off in the

EMEA currencies in Q1 09. Hence, the fact that the overall score is now so negative is a

clear signal to us that that investors should take off risk in the EMEA FX markets and wewould be looking for some kind of overall correction to hit the EMEA FX markets sooner

rather than later.

The South African rand remains the lowest scoring currency in the EMEA FX Scorecard.

It is notable that the rand not only scores poorly overall, but that all the sub scores look

quite weak. Therefore we continue to recommend investors to be short in this currency.

Scorecard-based trade of the week Buy RON/ZAR

Last week we recommend buying CZK/ZAR based on our EMEA FX Scorecard. That

trade is up marginally over the week. This week the rand is still the lowest scoring

currency in the EMEA FX Scorecard, while the Romanian leu is now the highest scoring

currency in the Scorecard. We therefore recommend buying RON/ZAR going into next

week.

09 July 2010

EMEA WeeklyWill the summer calm hold?

Dovish TCMB stays on hold

Source: Danske Markets

Inflation development in CEE region




2 | 09 July 2010www.danskeresearch.com

EMEA Weekly

Calendar


Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

EEK 7:00 Trade balance bln. EEK May -0.4

CZK 9:00 CPI y/y Jun 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%

CZK 9:00 Unemployment rate % Jun 8.9% 8.6% 8.7%

RON 9:00 CPI y/y Jun 4.4%

TRY 9:00 Current account bln. USD May -3.1 -4.4

LVL 12:00 Trade balance mln. LVL May -51.1


LTL - Current account m. Euro May -26.3

HUF 9:00 CPI y/y Jun 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%

CZK 10:00 Current account bln. CZK May -9.80 12.40

PLN 14:00 CPI y/y Jun 2.2% 2.2%

PLN 14:00 Trade balance EUR mil May -263 -368


EEK 11:00 Current account bln. EEK May 1.1

ZAR 11:30 Retail sales y/y May 3.8% 3.2%

PLN 14:00 Current account Euro mil May -483 -424


RUB - PPI y/y Jun 18.0% 19.1%

RUB - Industrial production y/y Jun 11.5% 12.6%

TRY 9:00 Unemployment rate % Apr 13.7%

CZK 9:00 PPI y/y Jun 1.8% 1.8% 1.5%

TRY 18:00 Turkish central bank to announce rate decision % 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%

Friday, July 16, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

HUF 9:00 Wages y/y May 3.1% 3.1% 1.1%

PLN 14:00 Wages y/y Jun 5.3% 4.8%

PLN 14:00 Employment y/y Jun 0.9% 0.5%

The editors do not guarantee the accurateness of figures, hours or dates stated above

Note that all releases are CET.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

EMEA Data and Events in Week28

Monday, July 12, 2010

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Wednesday, July 14, 2010




EMEA Weekly

Fixed income market update

Review: Higher risk appetite and dovish central banks

Some return of the risk appetite was clearly visible on EMEA Fixed income markets over

the week with money market rates and yields falling across the EMEA region. The

biggest drop was seen in Turkey and South Africa, where dovish comments from the

central banks cemented that interest rates will stay on hold for some time in Turkey and in

South Africa the central bank governor Gill Marcus even renewed the speculation that the

South Africa central bank could continue in monetary easing. Hence, considering the

governor’s comments we cannot rule out that the South African central bank cut rates

further at its next MPC meeting on July 22 – 50bp cut now looks possible.

Preview: No Turkish rate hike - yet

Going into next week the markets’ attention is expected to turn to the Turkish central

bank’s rate decision on Thursday, Polish labour numbers, and inflation numbers across

the region.

We take a closer look at the inflation outlook in EMEA on page 7.

TCMB on hold for now, but rate hikes have moved closer

Turkish inflation continues to be well-above the Turkish central bank’s (TCMB) official

inflation target of 6.5% and the recovery in the Turkish economy appears to be quite

robust. Therefore the TCMB will, sooner or later, have to hike its key policy rate to curb

inflationary pressures especially taking into account that the key policy rate at 6.5% is

historically low and below inflation. That said even though inflation is running at above

the inflation target and recovery is well under way the TCMB has some reasons to stay on

hold for now. First of all, the TCMB seems convinced that the rise in inflation this year is

temporary and that there is more downside and upside risk to inflation. Furthermore, theTCMB seems to have developed relatively dovish instincts in the past couple of years,

which means that the bank would rather err on inflation than on growth. A final reason to

maintain a wait-and-see stance in monetary policy is that inflation surprised somewhat on

the downside in July. Hence, in July Turkish inflation dropped to 8.37% down from 9.1%

in May.

Overall, we are slightly worried that the TCMB is too relaxed about inflationary pressures

in Turkey and that could become a problem at some point, especially in the light of the

longer term risks coming from the growing current account deficit. However, those are

longer term concerns rather than short-term risks and consequently we believe that

TCMB’s likely decision to keep rates on hold next week will not be a big market mover.

Outlook for the Polish labour market continues to improve

The recovery in the Polish economy continues and the output gap has more or less been

close and therefore the outlook for the Polish labour continues to improve. We believe

this will be confirmed on Friday when we get numbers for Polish wage and employment

growth in June. Hence, we expect employment to have grown by 0.9% y/y in June, while

we expect wage growth to have been 5.3% y/y in June – up from 4.8% y/y in May.

Overall, we believe that the continued recovery is like to lead to a continued improvement

in labour market conditions in Poland and unemployment will likely peak in the coming

months and decline going forward, which also should lead to a further acceleration in

wage growth. We expect unemployment to drop from 12.4% in 2010E to 11.8% in

2012E, while we expect wage growth to accelerate from 3.9% y/y in 2010E to 5.3% y/y

in 2011E.

EMEA swap rate performance

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

2Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp

CZK 1.62 -1

HUF 5.83 -6

PLN 4.57 1

RUB 5.47 -8

TRY 7.57 -10

ZAR 6.61 -8

5Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp

CZK 2.18 -3

HUF 6.22 -7

PLN 5.11 2

RUB 6.73 -3

TRY 8.31 -30ZAR 7.46 -15

Data updated: 09/07 - CET: 10:57




EMEA Weekly

FX Market update

Preview: President Komorowski boosts zlotyPoland’s new president is Bronislaw Komorowski. As expected, the second round of

voting in Poland’s presidential elections, held on Sunday, was a close run thing between

acting president Komorowski – from the governing liberal-conservative Civic Platform

and the social-conservative Jarosław Kaczyński. Komorowski won 53% of the vote,

while Kaczyński received 47%. Overall, we believe the result is positive for the Polish

markets and the election of Komorowski helps lift the zloty this week. This zloty

undoubtedly also got some help from improved risk appetite toward the end of the week.

Even though we believe that the election of Komorowski as new Polish president is good

news for the Polish markets and strength of the boost to the Polish markets will be

dependent critically on how bold the Polish government is in the implementation of

reforms to consolidate public finances and here we would caution against becomingoverly optimistic. See our comment on the Polish presidential election here.

Review: A surprise top scorer

There is no doubt – we were surprised when our updated EMEA FX Scorecard for this

week showed that the Romanian leu was the highest scoring currency among the seven

currencies covered by the Scorecard and to be frank we are not sure what to make of it

and feel slightly uncomfortable that the Scorecard tells us to be more bullish on the leu.

After all, the Scorecard does not including everything. For example it does not tell us

anything about foreign currency lending in Romania and potential risks to the banking

sector from this. It does not tell of anything about continued political uncertainty in

Romania and a very weak government. Not to mention the risks of contagion from the

situation in Greece.

On the other hand, it does not “catch” some of the positive factors either – for example

that Romania’s IMF deal seems to have been saved by swift action by the Romanian

government to secure alternative fiscal tightening measures to make up for such reforms

that have been overruled by the Romanian Constitutional Court. So here goes – we

believe that the Romanian leu could outperform the other currencies in the region in the

short-term, despite the fact that we maintain our longer-term reservations about the

outlook for the Romania leu.

The key reason why the Romanian leu scores the highest score in our EMEA FX

Scorecard is that the sub score for macro conditions in the Scorecard is quite positive. It

might not be the established consensus view of the Romanian economy that it is doing

well – and it is not – but there are pockets of optimism especially in the manufacturing

sector where it is clear that a recovery is under way – this helps industrial production and

exports. So we believe it is time to give the leu the benefit of the doubt – at least in the

short-run. Furthermore, it is of course notable that the leu has done surprisingly well

during this year’s European market volatility – probably mostly because the Romanian

leu has been extremely illiquid and few investors had long positions in RON going into

the year.

EMEA FX Scorecard the most negative since February 2009

To be fair we have not really changed our view on the leu that much compared with a

week ago – however what have really changed are the scores on the other currencies inthe EMEA FX Scorecard. Hence, since last week the scores for all currencies in the

scores – with the exception of the Romanian leu and the Czech koruna (which is only

neutral now) – has turned negative, so even our long time favourite the Polish zloty now

FX performance one week

Source: Reuters Ecowin

FX performance one month


-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

HUF vs. EUR

ZAR vs. USD

PLN vs. EUR

RON vs. EUR

CZK vs. EUR

EUR/USD

ZAR vs. EUR

TRY vs. USD

Basket vs. RUB

TRY vs. EUR

%Data updated: 09/07 - CET: 09:27

1-week change

-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

EUR/USD

TRY vs. USD

ZAR vs. USD

CZK vs. EUR

PLN vs. EUR

HUF vs. EUR

Basket vs. RUB

RON vs. EUR

TRY vs. EUR

ZAR vs. EUR

%Data updated: 09/07 - CET: 09:40

1-month change

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/FlashCommentPresedentialVictory050710/$file/FlashComment_PresedentialVictory_050710.pdf







EMEA Weekly

scores negatively in the Scorecard. That does not change our longer term optimism about

the zloty. The short-term outlook for the koruna looks a bit more challenging.

In fact the total score in the Scorecard – adding up the individual score for all of the

currencies in the Scorecard – has during this week been the most negative since February

2009. It is of course well-known that the indication correctly forecast a major sell-off inthe EMEA currencies in Q1 09. Hence, the fact that the overall score now is this negative

is a clear signal to us that that investors should take off risk in the EMEA FX markets and

we would be looking for some kind of overall correction to hit the EMEA FX markets

sooner rather than later.

The South African rand remains the lowest scoring currency in the EMEA FX Scorecard.

It is notable that the rand not only scores poorly overall, but that all the sub scores look

quite weak. Therefore, we continue to recommend investors to be short in this currency.

Scorecard-based trade of the week Buy RON/ZAR

Last week we recommended buying CZK/ZAR based on our EMEA FX Scorecard. That

trade is up marginally over the week. This week the rand is still the lowest scoringcurrency in the EMEA FX Scorecard, while the Romanian leu now is the highest scoring

currency in the Scorecard. We therefore recommend buying RON/ZAR going into next

week.




EMEA Weekly

FX Scorecard overview

Score PLN Score HUF

Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations

Score CZK Score TRY


Score ZAR Score RON


Score ILS Score Total


-0.1

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

-0.6

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

0.0

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

-0.6

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

-1.3

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

C o m

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

0.2

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

-0.8

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

-0.4

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

M a c r o

T e c h n i c a l

C a r r y

G l o b a l

V a l u a t i o n

T o t a l

EMEA FX Scorecard outline

All scores are computed on a scalefrom +5 to -5. The score measures

how far from a mean point the

indicator is, measured by standard

deviation. A score is then combined

from the different sub-scores.

Macro: calculates the growth

momentum in different monthly

macro indicators.

Technical: calculates the momentum

in different volatility measures, short-and longer-term moving averages and

the level of relative strength index.

Carry: calculates the momentum in

local three-month rates, carry-to-risk,

spread against EUR or USD three-

month rates and spread against peers.

Global: consists of a global growth

score based on leading global

indicators and hard macro data, a

liquidity score based on the

momentum in G3 real rates and a

sentiment score based on performance

in the global equity market and

traditional funding currencies.

Valuation: calculates whether

currencies are over/undervalued

compared with the long-term trend in

the real effective exchange rate

(REER). The trend is adjusted for

external imbalances, i.e. an

imbalance-adjusted REER. The scoresare calibrated to reflect the short-term

impact of the valuation on the FX.




EMEA Weekly

Special: EMEA inflation outlook

June’s inflation is on the agenda in the EMEA region and we take a closer look at the

inflation outlook.

CEE: Inflation still not an issue

In Poland inflation is currently within the Polish central bank’s inflation target of 2.5%

y/y +/- 1 percentage point and it should remain in this territory for the rest of 2010.

However, Polish economic activity is progressing at fairly high speed and this should

translate into upward pressure on inflation. We forecast inflation at 2.6% y/y this year and

3% y/y next year.

In the rest of CEE inflationary pressure remains rather limited. Hungarian inflation is at a

fairly high level currently due to last year’s VAT hike. However, this is only temporary

and we expect it to gradually decline going forward. We expect inflation on average to be

5.2% y/y in 2010 and 4.6% y/y in 2011. In the Czech Republic inflation remains low even

though it currently ticks up, driven mainly by higher regulated prices, higher indirecttaxes and fuel prices and Czech inflation should remain within the Czech central bank’s

inflation target of 2% y/y +/- 1%-point. We forecast average inflation of 1.5% y/y in 2010

and 2.0% y/y in 2011. Romanian inflation is stabilising around a level of 4.5% y/y.

However, the VAT hike of 5pp, which takes effect on 1 July will likely push Romanian

inflation up to around 8% y/y temporarily.

MEA: Turkish inflation surges

In the MEA region the inflationary picture is rather mixed. In Turkey inflation has surged

significantly this year moving into double-digit territory again. Given that Turkish

economic growth is also accelerating quite fast inflationary pressure is becoming an issue

for Turkey again. Our models indicate that Turkish inflation should on average be about

9% y/y this year – well above the Turkish central bank’s year-end inflation target of 6.5%

y/y and around 7.5% y/y next year – however, this forecast could turn out to be too

optimistic. Domestic demand is speeding up in Turkey which will likely put further

pressure on inflation.

The outlook for South African inflation looks rather neutral. Inflation has declined

significantly since it peaked at double-digit levels in 2008. Going forward we expect

inflation to remain around the current level and we therefore forecast South African

inflation at 4.9% y/y in both 2010 and 2011.

CIS: Low inflation only temporary

Inflation is currently at historic lows in Russia around 6% y/y. The slowdown in inflationis mostly due to depression, as money supply, wage growth and producer prices have

been declining during the crisis. However, we expect to see only a few months of these

low inflation rates before the inflation accelerates rapidly at the end of this year.

Currently we expect inflation to peak at double-digit levels by the summer of 2011 and

start to ease after that toward more tolerable 7% medium-term levels.

Baltics: Weak domestic demand limits inflation

Inflation remains low in the Baltic countries. While weak domestic demand limits

inflationary pressure, rising energy prices can push inflation up. However, these effects

vary between the Baltic countries. In Latvia lacklustre domestic demand offsets any

inflationary pressure from rising energy prices. We expect Latvian inflation at 0.1% y/y

this year and 0.8% y/y next year. The Estonian and Lithuanian economies are a bit further

in the recovery compared to Latvia and inflation could thus move somewhat higher. We

expect inflation at 3.2% y/y and 2.6% y/y in Estonia and 1.4% y/y and 1.4% y/y in

Lithuania in 2010 and 2011 respectively.

Stable inflation the rest of the year


Double digit Turkish inflation


Inflation to return upwards soon


Inflation remains low

05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0% y/y % y/y

Estonia

Latvia

% y/y % y/y

Lithuania


05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11 % y/y % y/y

Romania

CzechRepublic

% y/y % y/y

Poland

Hungary

05 06 07 08 09 10 11

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

1

3

5

7

9

11

13 % y/y % y/y

Turkey

SouthAfrica

% y/y % y/y

05 06 07 08 09 10

5

7

9

11

13

15

5

7

9

11

13

15% y/y % y/y

Russia

% y/y % y/y




EMEA Weekly

CIS update

The most important data due from Russia next week is the industrial output for June. We

do not expect a significant deceleration in production growth, but we still believe that the

current momentum can support the industrial output growth for only another couple of

months. After that, real recovery in economic activity is needed, and we remain very

bearish on the investment growth potential in 2010.

The Russian Central Bank published preliminary current account data for H1 10 last

Tuesday. Higher oil prices have boosted the trade balance surplus y/y, which will give a

positive contribution to Q2 GDP figures as well. But latest months have been showing

some deterioration in terms of trade, as consumer demand has significantly increased

imports. So support from trade balance to GDP growth is already fading as well.

Even though consumption is growing again at a steady pace in Russia, we still believe

that the true growth driver for the next two years must be credit growth, which has not

really started yet. We expect the y/y credit growth to accelerate rapidly after summer,

reaching a 15% growth rate by the end of this year. Most of the growth will come from

the household sector, further boosting consumer demand in H1 11.

The Ukraine is headed for a heavy fiscal tightening measures due to its IMF deal. The

government has to make significant cuts in budget expenditure as well as a rise in energy

prices for Ukrainian consumers. IMF loan announcement spurred immediate

improvements in Ukrainian sovereign ratings, making international capital markets more

accessible for the Ukraine.

Industrial production growth


Private sector credit growth


07 08 09 10

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

% y/y % y/y

<< GDP

Mining >>

<< Manufacturing

06 07 08 09 10

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

% y/y % y/y

<< Russia

Kazakhstan >>

<< Ukraine




EMEA Weekly

Currency forecast, EMEA


EUR USD SEK NOK DKK

Actual 1.27 - 751 637 589

+3m 1.15 - 817 665 647

+6m 1.18 - 780 644 631

+12m 1.27 - 724 598 587

Actual 4.07 3.21 234 198 183

+3m 3.95 3.43 238 194 188

+6m 3.95 3.35 233 192 188

+12m 3.90 3.07 236 195 191

Actual 280 221 3.39 2.88 2.66

+3m 280 243 3.36 2.73 2.66

+6m 275 233 3.35 2.76 2.71

+12m 270 213 3.41 2.81 2.76

Actual 25.4 20.0 37.5 31.8 29.4

+3m 25.3 22.0 37.2 30.2 29.4

+6m 24.8 21.0 37.1 30.6 30.0

+12m 23.9 18.8 38.5 31.8 31.2

Actual 15.6 12.4 60.8 51.6 47.6

+3m 15.7 13.6 60.1 48.9 47.5

+6m 15.7 13.3 58.8 48.6 47.5

+12m 15.7 12.3 58.8 48.6 47.6

Actual 0.71 0.56 1342 1139 1052

+3m 0.70 0.61 1343 1093 1063

+6m 0.70 0.59 1314 1086 1063

+12m 0.70 0.55 1314 1086 1064

Actual 3.45 2.73 275 234 216

+3m 3.45 3.00 272 222 216

+6m 3.45 2.92 267 220 216

+12m 3.45 2.72 267 220 216

Actual 4.23 3.34 225 191 176

+3m 4.30 3.74 219 178 173

+6m 4.35 3.69 211 175 171

+12m 4.40 3.46 209 173 169

Actual 1.96 1.54 486 413 381

+3m 1.96 1.70 481 391 381

+6m 1.96 1.66 471 389 381

+12m 1.96 1.54 471 389 381

Actual 1.96 1.55 484 411 380

+3m 1.74 1.51 540 440 428

+6m 1.82 1.54 505 418 409

+12m 2.02 1.59 455 376 369

Actual 39.0 30.8 24.4 20.7 19.1

+3m 36.9 32.1 25.5 20.7 20.2

+6m 36.5 30.9 25.2 20.8 20.4

+12m 36.2 28.5 25.4 21.0 20.6

Actual 10.0 7.90 95.0 80.6 74.5

+3m 10.4 9.00 90.8 73.9 71.9

+6m 11.2 9.50 82.1 67.8 66.4

+12m 12.7 10.00 72.4 59.8 58.7

Actual 9.6 7.58 99.0 84.1 77.7

+3m 9.0 7.80 104.8 85.3 82.9

+6m 9.4 7.95 98.1 81.0 79.3

+12m 10.5 8.25 87.8 72.5 71.1

Currency Forecast, New Europe/EMEA

Jul 9. 2010

USD

PLN

HUF

CZK

EEK

LVL

LTL

RON

BGN

TRY

RUB

UAH

ZAR




EMEA Weekly

Macro Forecast, EMEA


Macro forecast, EMEA

-17 .8 10.8 4 .2

13.6 5 .2

7.5 11.9 0.4 18.0 0.8

- 20.0

9.5

9.0 14.7

12.1 11.2 1.8

4.6

Hungary

2009 -6.3 -7.6 -6.3 -8.9 -15.2 4.3 0.2

2011 3.0 2.6 4.1 8.9 7.3 5.6 1.3

2010 5.7-1.9 -2.0 -2.2

2.3

Latvia

2009 -18.3 -24.7 -38.0 -15.7 -36.1 - 3.0 - 17.3 3.7

2010 -4.7 -3.4 1.3 -0.5 3.5 - 4.5 -0.9

2011 1.6

4.5

2010 -3.7 -2.2 -3.2 2.0 2.9 - 1.0 - 18.0 0.3

Y ear G dp1

Private.

Cons1,5

Fixed

Inv1,5

Unem-

ploym3

Lithuania

2009 -15.5 -17.8 -40.1 -17.9 -32.4 - 0.7

2011 2.4 3.7 9.4 12.5 11.0 - 0.0

2.1 7.0

Export1,4,5

Import1,4,5

0.5 0.2 -3.1 12.3 7.7

Infla-

tion1

Trade

Balance2,4,5

Current

acc.2,4,5

Industrial

prod.1,5

Czech Republic

Estonia

2009 -14.8 -19.4 -35.0 -11.6

2.2 6.7 13.32.9

2009 -4.1 -0.3 -9.2 -14.2

2010

11.1

5.0 -1.1 -13.2 9.1

2011 2.4 0.7 6.4 14.7

-15.3

- 18.0 -0.4

1.1

7.1 1.3 10.7 10.1 1.5

11.9

- 14.0

- 17.0

2.010.7

2010 -2.3 -3.0 0.1 1.5 7.2 - 1.0

-27.9 - 3.0 -0.1

8.1 2.1 9.4

- 14.5

3.5

0.7

Poland

2009 1.7 2.3 -0.5 -10.6 -14.2 -1.0

14.9 - 0.0 - 15.0

2010

2011

-1.1 12.6 12.4

2011

-1.6 -3.6

2.63.0 4.7 -10.6 4.4 3.1 -0.6

-0.5 10.0 12.4

2010 3.6 0.3

8.22009 -7.9 -7.5 -17.8 -4.7

4.0 9.0-1.1 7.3 6.4 5.9 2.9

-30.9 -42.9 3.8 -10.9

8.0

3.04.0 3.5 8.5 6.9 5.5 0.2

11.7

-8.0 - 6.3

5.0 2.5 2.2 8.4 19.0 -8.1 - 7.717.1Turkey

2009 -6.9 -2.5 -20.3 -21.7 -28.4 -6.2

-6.3

-2.2

2010

-6.92011 7.3 - 6.64.1 3.6 6.3 12.3 13.3 -8.4

1) Average % y/y 2) % of GDP 3) % of total work force 4) Export and import prices (constant pri ces for Czech Republic, Hungary and

Poland), 5) expectation for 2009

2011

2012

4.1 3.2 4.1 4.4 3.7 - 3.0 5.0 8.5 8.8

4.2 3.6 3.6 4.1 3.6 - - - 8.0 8.5

Russia

Macro Monitors

Macro Monitor Hungary, Jun 25

Macro Monitor Czech Republic , Jun 25

Macro Monitor Turkey , Jan 05

Macro Monitor Poland , Jun 25


http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/MacroMonitorHungary250610/$file/MacroMonitor_Hungary_250610.pdf

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/MacroMonitorCzechRepublic250610/$file/MacroMonitor_CzechRepublic_250610.pdf


http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/MacroMonitorTurkey050110/$file/MacroMonitor_Turkey_050110.pdf



http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/MacroMonitorPoland250610/$file/MacroMonitor_Poland_250610.pdf





http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/MacroMonitorHungary250610/$file/MacroMonitor_Hungary_250610.pdf




EMEA Weekly

Emerging Markets Contacts

Emerging Markets Research

Lars Christensen +45 45 12 85 30 [email protected]

Flemming Jegbjærg Nielsen +45 45 12 85 35 [email protected]

Violeta Klyviene +370 5 2156992 [email protected]

Stanislava Pravdova +45 45 12 80 71 [email protected]

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Emerging Markets Sales, Danske Markets

Erik Rasmussen +45 45 14 32 47 [email protected]

Global Retail SME, FX

Stig Hansen +45 45 14 60 86 [email protected]

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Trading FX, Fixed Income, Danske Markets

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Maciej Semeniuk +48 22 33 77 114 [email protected]

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Danske Markets Baltics

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Giedre Geciauskiene +370 5215 6180 [email protected]

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ZAO Danske Bank Russia, Saint-Petersburg Treasury Department

Mikko Pitkänen +7 812 332 73 06 [email protected]

Vladimir Biserov +7 812 332 73 04 [email protected]

Darja Kounina +7 812 332 73 04 [email protected]

All EM research is available on Bloomberg DMEM



EMEA Weekly

DisclosureThis research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of

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jul 09 danske research emeaweekly

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