jrc mars bulletin crop monitoringin europe · jrc mars bulletin vol. 28 no 2 – 17 february 2020 2...

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020

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The review period for this issue of the Bulletin (1 January

to 10 February) was, again, warmer than usual throughout

Europe. In large parts of France and many regions

surrounding the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and in eastern

Europe it was the warmest 1 January to 10 February

period on our records (since 1979).

As a consequence of the very mild weather conditions, the

frost tolerance in winter cereals – built-up to protect the

crops in case of a cold-air intrusion – remains considerably

weaker than usual in Germany, Poland, the Baltic

countries, southern Scandinavia, the Balkan region, south-

western Russia, Ukraine, and the British Isles. In several of

these regions, the level of winter hardening is now even

lower than reported in the January issue of the Bulletin.

In Mediterranean regions and the northern half of the

Iberian Peninsula, the warmer-than-usual conditions are

accompanied by a marked deficit in precipitation. In

Romania, the drought conditions reported in the January

issue of the Bulletin were alleviated by some rain in late

January; however, this was insufficient to offset the

cumulative deficit (as did occur in southern Ukraine).

Likewise, in southern Italy and Greece, the precipitation

forecast for the coming week will not be sufficient to

counterbalance the winter deficit. In most of the regions

affected, this will not have a direct impact on crops, but

above-average rainfall will be needed at the end of winter

and in early spring, to sustain optimal regrowth of winter

cereals. However, in parts of the Maghreb region (e.g.

central Morocco, western Algeria) the persistent rain

deficit is starting to impact biomass accumulation of

wheat. In western Scotland and Northern Ireland, there was a

marked surplus of precipitation for the period as a whole.

Online version Issued: 17 February 2020

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 2

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe

February 2020

Very mild winter conditions continue Dry spell in Mediterranean regions

Content: 1. Winter hardening and frost kill 2. Agrometeorological review 3. Atlas

Covers the period from 1 January until 10 February


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Winter hardening and frost kill

Our latest frost-kill model simulations present a

considerably weaker-than-usual hardening 1 status for

winter cereals in an extended area of Europe (Germany,

Poland, Baltic countries, southern Scandinavia, Balkan

Peninsula, south-western Russia, Ukraine, and the British

Isles). In many of these regions, the anomaly – compared

to the average situation in this period of the year – has

become even more pronounced than reported in the

January issue of the Bulletin. Winter wheat is not, or only

slightly, hardened in the Atlantic and Mediterranean

regions, as well as in central Europe and the Balkan region,

thus making it susceptible to cold air intrusions. The

hardening of winter cereals is more advanced eastwards,

and full or almost full hardening has been achieved in

eastern and northern Europe. Frost tolerance has started

to decline in central Europe (e.g. Czechia, Carpathian

Basin). Winter cereals are generally not hardened in the UK,

Ireland, France, Benelux countries, Germany, Denmark,

western Poland, most of the Balkan region, and even

southern Sweden. Winter cereals have become slightly or partially

hardened in the Carpathian Basin, Czechia, eastern

Poland, Lithuania, and the regions surrounding the Black

Sea. Hardening of winter cereals is advanced in eastern

Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, central Turkey

and some southern and western regions of Russia. Winter cereals are almost fully or fully hardened in

the northern and easternmost parts of Europe, including

Finland and central and northern parts of the

Scandinavian Peninsula, in most of European Russia, and

in eastern Turkey.

Our frost-kill model indicates no significant additional

frost-kill damage other than reported in the January issue

of the Bulletin.

Considering the medium-range weather forecast (issued

on 11 February), frost tolerance will continue to weaken in

central Europe during the second dekad of February. No

significant changes are expected elsewhere in Europe. No

further frost-kill damage is forecast during the forecast

period.

1 Hardening is a bio-physiological process of winter cereals that occurs

when, in response to cold conditions, the crops transform cellular starch

to sugar thus gaining low-temperature tolerance to survive the harsh

winter conditions.


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Agrometeorological overview

2.1 Meteorological review (1 January – 10 February) Warmer-than-usual conditions have been recorded

throughout Europe. In the Iberian and Italian Peninsulas,

south-eastern Europe, Ireland and Turkey, average daily

temperature anomalies for the review period as a whole were mostly less than 2°C with respect to the long-term

average (LTA). In central and western Europe, the positive anomalies ranged between 2°C and 4°C. In eastern and

northern Europe, temperatures between 4°C and 6°C

higher than average were reported. In central European

Russia, southern Finland, the Baltic countries, and most of Sweden, daily mean temperature anomalies between 6°C

and 8°C were recorded. Large parts of France, and many

regions surrounding the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and in

eastern Europe experienced the warmest weather on our

records for the analysis period. Minimum temperatures

below -10°C were recorded only in parts of eastern and

north-eastern Europe. Regions surrounding the Baltic Sea

experienced substantially fewer cold days (with minimum

daily temperature below 0°C) than would normally be

expected for this period of the year. Drier-than-usual conditions occurred in large parts of

south-eastern Europe, Italy, southern France, the western

half of the Iberian Peninsula, and the Maghreb region.

Precipitation anomalies, for the period as a whole, mainly

ranged from -80% to -50% with respect to the LTA. Some

areas in central Italy, Greece and the Maghreb region

received less than 10 mm of rainfall, which represents

80% less than the LTA values for the analysis period. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in the

eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, northern Alpine

regions, northern British Isles, regionally in central Europe,

north-eastern Europe and eastern Black Sea regions. In

most of these regions, precipitation was between 30%

and 100% of the LTA. However, in eastern Spain, western

Scandinavia, northern Romania and southern Russia, the

rainfall recorded was more than double the LTA.


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2.2 Weather forecast (14 – 21 February) Weather conditions during the forecast period will be determined by the following: (i) a stationary trough over the eastern

Mediterranean, that will induce precipitation events in the area; (ii) a ridge deepening from the western side of northern

Africa into the central Mediterranean, that will favour warmer-than-usual conditions; (iii) a deep cyclone over the North

Atlantic, that will induce precipitation events and intense south-west wind along the Atlantic side of Europe. At the end

of the forecast period, this cyclonic disturbance will move towards the central and eastern Mediterranean.

Warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast

throughout Europe, with daily mean temperature

anomalies (with respect to the long-term average) that

will mainly range from 2°C to 6°C in western and central

Europe, and from 6°C to 8°C in eastern and northern

Europe. Daily mean temperature anomalies above 8°C are

expected in the north-western part of European Russia.

Daily minimum temperatures are forecast to remain

above -4°C in western and central Europe, with positive

values from 0°C to 2°C in most of the Iberian Peninsula

(higher values in south-western parts), in the United

Kingdom, and along the Atlantic coast of Europe. In

eastern Europe, daily minimum temperatures may reach -

6°C, while values below -10°C are expected in most of the

Scandinavian Peninsula and Russia.

Cumulative precipitation in the forecast period is expected to range between 40 mm and 60 mm in most

of Ireland, the western side of the UK (where it may locally reach 100 mm), Denmark and southern Sweden.

Precipitation above 120 mm is expected in Scotland and

in southern Norway.

In most of western Europe and in large regions of eastern

Europe, total precipitation during the forecast period will be less than 5 mm. In all other regions, cumulative

precipitation will range from 10 mm to 40 mm.

The long-range weather forecast for the next three

months (March-April-May) shows warmer-than-usual

conditions likely to occur in most of Europe, and very likely

to occur in the Scandinavian Peninsula and Russia.


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Atlas

Temperature regime


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Precipitation


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JRC MARS Bulletins 2020

Date Publication Reference

27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 23 Mar Agromet analysis, yield

forecast Vol. 28 No 3

27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing conditions, pasture analysis

Vol. 28 No 4

18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing update, pasture analysis

Vol. 28 No 5

15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, rice analysis

Vol. 28 No 6

27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, harvesting conditions, pasture update

Vol. 28 No 7

24 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, harvesting update

Vol. 28 No 8

14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, yield forecast, harvesting update

Vol. 28 No 9

26 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 10

23 Nov Agromet analysis, harvesting update, sowing update

Vol. 28 No 11

14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12

The current JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Analysis and reports A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, G. Manfron, L. Panarello, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg

Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern

Edition M. van den Berg

Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL)

Contact JRC D5 / MARS4CAST [email protected]

Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.

Technical note:

The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

jrc mars bulletin crop monitoringin europe · jrc mars bulletin vol. 28 no 2 – 17 february 2020 2...

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