jpmorgan indian investment trust plc january 2010

JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc

January 2010

Rukhshad Shroff, CFARajendra Nair, CFA

For Professional Investors Only- Not For Onward Distribution

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The JF and JPMorgan India team

The India team

Edward PullingManaging Director,

15 years of India-related experience

Rukhshad ShroffManaging Director,


Rajendra NairVice President,


Johnny Wong Dealer,


Nandkumar SurtiVice President,


Harshad PatwardhanVice President,


Amit Gadgil


Ravi Ratanpal


Rohit Agarwal


Karan Sikka


The Hong Kong team

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Two consecutive, outlier years

Positive Years: 22 (73%) 2004 13

Negative Years: 8 (27%) 2002 4

1997 19

2001 -18 1994 17 2007 47

2000 -21 1993 29 2006 47

1998 -16 1989 17 2005 42 2009 80

1996 -1 1984 7 1992 37 2003 73

1995 -21 1983 7 1990 35 1999 64

1987 -16 1982 4 1988 51 1991 82

2008 -52 1986 -1 1980 25 1981 54 1985 94

Year % Year % Year % Year % Year %

-30 to -60 -30 to 0 0 to 30 30 to 60 >60

Range of returns (%)

Source: MOSL, 11/1/10

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Performance review: 2009 = the worst of all worlds

Bottom up, stock specific

Medium/long term time frame, with an average of 3 years holding period

Overweight domestic growth plays

Quality & blue chips penalised

~9% cash in 1Q

Our Strategy The Market

Macro, factor driven

Extreme volatility in the last 12 months, with strong rotational tendencies

Driven by global commodities, beta and leverage

Leverage and beta rewarded

~100% move up in 3 months

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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustPerformance update

^ Inception: 1/7/94* Undiluted. Excludes the impact of any subscription share dilutionSource: Morningstar, JPMAM. Total returns in £.

Since Inception^6 months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Annualised

% % % % % %

JPM Indian – NAV* 25.2 59.2 36.0 186.5 260.9 9.9

MSCI India Index# 31.4 80.6 50.5 206.7 235.7 7.6

Relative performance -6.2 -21.4 -14.5 -20.2 25.2 2.3

Fund Size £462.3m

As at 31st December 2009

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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustCumulative performance to 30th September 2009

* Includes the return from the bonus of subscription shares in November 2008Source: Morningstar, JPMAM. Total returns in £.

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years% % % %

JPM Indian – Diluted NAV 28.7 35.5 205.7 350.0

JPM Indian – Undiluted NAV 37.5 44.8 226.6 380.8

JPM Indian – Return to Shareholders 45.1* 34.5 198.0 490.1

MSCI India Index# 47.1 56.6 238.7 255.6

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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustTop ten holdings

Stock Name Sector Market Cap £m % of Fund

1 Reliance Industries Energy 47,691 12.0

2 Infosys Technologies Information Technology 19,836 10.8

3 HDFC Bank Financials 9,666 6.7

4 Housing Development Finance Corp. Financials 10,136 6.7

5 ICICI Bank Financials 12,993 6.0

6 Bharat Heavy Electricals Industrials 15,655 4.9

7 Tata Consultancy Services Information Technology 19,540 3.5

8 Tata Motors Industrials 2,660 2.8

9 Maruti Suzuki India Consumer Discretionary 5,998 2.7

10 Infrastructure Development Finance Financials 12,603 2.7

58.82

Source: JPMAM

As at 31st December 2009

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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustTop 15 positive bets

Market Cap Fund MSCI India Index Difference US$m % % %

HDFC Bank Ltd. 15609 7.2 4.5 2.7Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 25281 4.8 2.4 2.3Infrastructure Development Finance Co. Ltd. 4296 3.0 1.0 2.0Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 9686 2.8 1.0 1.8Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd. 16369 7.1 5.4 1.7Power Finance Corp. Ltd. 3988 1.4 0.0 1.4Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 6010 2.3 0.9 1.4Hindalco Industries Ltd. 6614 2.0 0.9 1.2Tata Motors Ltd. 8160 2.5 1.3 1.2Grasim Industries Ltd. 4876 1.5 0.4 1.1Mundra Port & Special Economic Zone Ltd. 4762 0.8 0.0 0.8Tata Power Co. Ltd. 7031 1.9 1.0 0.8Divi's Laboratories Ltd. 1176 0.7 0.0 0.7Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. 4136 1.7 1.0 0.7Indraprastha Gas Ltd. 372 0.6 0.0 0.6

Total 40.4 19.9 20.4

As at 31/12/09

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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustTop 15 negative bets

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 12408 0.0 2.3 -2.3Axis Bank Ltd. 8350 0.0 2.0 -2.0Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. 15439 1.0 3.0 -2.0Wipro Ltd. 13265 0.0 1.7 -1.7GAIL (India) Ltd. 11266 0.0 1.5 -1.5Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 4010 0.0 1.3 -1.3DLF Ltd. 13173 0.0 1.3 -1.3Sesa Goa Ltd. 6950 0.0 1.1 -1.1NTPC Ltd. 25857 0.5 1.6 -1.1Tata Steel Ltd. 11777 0.0 1.0 -1.0Reliance Communications Ltd. 7644 0.0 1.0 -1.0Cipla Ltd. 5596 0.0 0.9 -0.9Unitech Ltd. 4225 0.0 0.9 -0.9Reliance Industries Ltd. 47691 12.1 13.0 -0.9United Spirits Ltd. 3401 0.0 0.9 -0.9

Total 13.7 33.5 -19.8

As at 31/12/09

Market Cap Fund MSCI India Index Difference US$m % % %

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JPMorgan Indian Investment TrustSector weighting

Source: JPMAM as at 31 December 2009

Non-Benchmark are classified in the appropriate sector. Cash is net current assets and holdings used as cash substitutes if applicable.

Sector breakdown

30.1% Financials 6.0%

15.8% Energy -0.8%

14.2% Information Technology -2.2%

12.4% Industrials 2.7%

9.8% Materials -2.6%

5.6% Consumer Discretionary 1.0%

4.6% Utilities -1.6%

3.9% Health Care 0.5%

2.6% Consumer Staples -2.7%

0.0% Telecommunication Services -1.3%

1.0% Cash 1.0%

100.0% Total

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Big picture view

We think the Indian economy can double in 5-6 years time to ~US$2 trillion.

The share of investment, historically neglected, will increase as India finally takes infrastructure seriously.

Consumption will continue to grow and remain dominant, driven by favourable demographics.

Corporate earnings could double in ~4-5 years

Foreign investment + re-allocation of domestic savings pool = positive for equities

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India remains a compelling early stage growth opportunity

Source: IMF, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10

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Reaping the demographic ‘dividend’

Source: NCAER; E= NCAER estimates, 7/1/10

Growing Middle Class (% Share of Households)

* Note: Africa includes a group of 56 countries. Source: UN, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10

India the Largest Contributor to Growth in the Working Population Over the Next 10 YearsAddition to working age

population by 2019Stock

Position 2009E4457 568765 388 379 963 14521082

500

534159

13854

5133

3212

-8-18

In Millions

F2002 F2006E F2010E

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Positive demographics = growing savings pool = sustainable growth

Source: CEIC, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research, 20/1/10Source: CEIC, CSO, Morgan Stanley Research, 20/1/10

Savings as % of GDP, 2008

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Low penetration will drive consumption

Source: IIFL,15/1/10

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Government Statistics Departments, 7/1/10

Domestic Two Wheeler Volumes % of Population Owning Two Wheelers

Auto Penetration (vehicles per thousand) versus GDP per Capita (PPP adjusted)

Source: IIFL,15/1/10

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...while rising infrastructure spending will be another pillar of growth

E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates;Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates;Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

India: Infrastructure InvestmentIndia: Infrastructure Investment

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Infrastructure: Where is the money going?

Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 20/1/10

Infrastructure Spending

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E = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesSource: Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10

E = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesSource: Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10

India & China: Infrastructure Investment (US$ bn)India & China: Infrastructure Investment

Chindia: Comparisons are at least indicative

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C + I = higher and more resilient growth

Source: CSO, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, 1/12/09

Quarterly GDP Growth Trend (% YoY)

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Source: CSO, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10 Source: Ministry of Commerce, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10

Export Decline NarrowsIndustrial Production

A near ‘V’ shaped recovery

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Ultimately feeding through into corporate earnings

Source: MOSL, 11/1/10 Source: MOSL, 11/1/10

Sensex EBITDA GrowthSensex Sales Growth


Sensex PAT Growth (YoY)

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Earnings could double in less than 5 years


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Valuations: Not cheap, but….

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

MSCI India PE

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

MSCI India PB

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The valuation premium is well deserved

Source: Worldscope, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

ROE trends

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Institutional activity is getting more balanced

Source: SEBI, BSE, Morgan Stanley Research, 19/1/10 Source: SEBI, BSE, Morgan Stanley Research, 19/1/10

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Risks

Inflation and interest rates

Global risk appetite

Oil price

Twin deficits

Geopolitics

The unexpected

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Summary

India remains a compelling early stage growth opportunity

Infrastructure spending and consumption will drive GDP growth

Which in turn will drive earnings growth and profitability

The opportunity will be punctuated by risks and volatility…

…yet, the market could potentially double in 3-4 years

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Appendix

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Investment Process

The basic premise of our process is that there are three sources of investment return:

Growth: a bigger and more profitable company adds to investment value and returns. Company contact is key to our process. We conduct hundreds of meetings per annum across countries: we analyse industries in which companies operate, the competitive landscape, management strategy to enhance competitive advantage and returns. As part of our process we not only meet companies but we meet with their competitors, distributors, suppliers and other stake holders.

Valuations: how a company is valued impacts our returns. Our valuation analysis encompasses both absolute methodologies as well as relative (to history, to regional and global comparables). We also use DCF/DDM valuation frameworks, where appropriate.

Sustainable yield: In addition to capital appreciation, dividend yield is an important source of long term returns. Analysing returns involves an analysis of the growth cycle of the business, its capital intensity and financial management.

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2009: An extraordinary turnaround

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Bloomberg, 14/1/10Please note : China A Share : SHCOMP, for H-Share : HSCEIACWI : All countries world index (Developed world + Emerging markets)World Index : Developed markets

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..as BRIC economies lived up to the hype

Source: IMF, 11/1/10

GDP growth %

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XIth Five Year Plan Infrastructure Spending EstimatesInfrastructure Spending

Infrastructure

Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012

Source: Planning Commission, Morgan Stanley Research, 15/1/10Assumed USD/INR = 40 for F2008-F2012

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Source: Planning Commission, 15/1/10

Source of FundingSources of Funding: Debt & Non-Debt

But who will fund it?

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Infrastructure: Where is the money going?

Sector F1998-F2002 F2003-F2007 F2008-F2012

IXth plan Xth plan Xith plan (E)

Electricity 29 64 167

Roads 3 32 79

Telecom 10 23 65

Railways 10 26 65

Irrigation 13 24 63

Water 9 14 36

Ports 2 3 22

Airports 2 1 8

Storage 0 1 6

Gas 0 2 4

Total spending (US$ bn) 78 190 514


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Debt Sources

Infrastructure financing

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Urbanisation will be a structural growth driver

Source: UN population division, World Urbanisation prospects, 7/1/10

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Source: CEA, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10 Source: Morgan Stanley Utilities Team; E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, 7/1/10

Growth in Power Generation CapacityIndia’s Power Shortage

Investment themes – Power: A crucial ingredient for growth

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Investment themes – Roads: Ambitious plans

Source: NHAI, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10

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Investment themes – Insurance

World Insurance Penetration Rate(Premium as % of GDP) in 2008

World Non-Life Insurance Premium Growth – 5 Year (CAGR)

World Life Insurance Premium Growth – 5 Year (CAGR)

Source: IIFL, 11/1/10 Source: Swiss Re, CEIC, IIFL Research, 11/1/10

Source: IIFL, 11/1/10

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Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,15/1/10 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research,15/1/10

China leads India by a wide margin..

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…but does she offer a glimpse into India’s future?

Source: FactSet, 15/1/10

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Risks: Inflation is a concern in the short term..

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, 19/1/10

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…but monetary tightening is not bad for equities in the long term

Source: Bloomberg, RBI & CLSA 15/1/10

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Risks: Fiscal deficit is a concern but is improving incrementally

Note: *Here the off-budget items include expenditure on food, fertilizer and oil. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Source: RBI, Economic Survey, Ministry of Finance, Morgan Stanley Research, 7/1/10

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Risks: Global risk appetite

Source: Bloomberg, 14/1/10

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Risks – Oil!

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10 Source: FactSet, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

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Risks: Geopolitics has been a perennial concern

Source: Anand Rathi Securities, 14/1/10

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Macro economic forecasts

* Total of Central and State Government deficit does not tally due to inter-governmental transactions. E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates; Source: RBI, CSO, Budget Documents, and Morgan Stanley Research.

Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, Bloomberg, SEBI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

Years Ending March 31 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010E F2011E F2012ENational Income GDP (US$ bn) 478 507 600 700 810 913 1,173 1,157 1,232 1,490 1,814Gross domestic product 5.8% 3.8% 8.5% 7.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.0% 6.7% 6.7% 8.0% 7.6%Agriculture and Allied activities (incl. mining) 5.9% -5.9% 9.3% 0.8% 5.7% 4.4% 4.7% 1.8% -1.1% 5.0% 3.0%Manufacturing, Constn, Electricity 2.8% 6.9% 7.8% 10.5% 10.7% 11.2% 8.5% 3.9% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3%Services 7.2% 7.5% 8.5% 9.1% 10.6% 11.2% 10.9% 9.7% 8.6% 8.7% 8.7%Money and BankingMoney Supply (M3) growth (avg) 16.2% 16.3% 13.1% 14.2% 16.1% 19.6% 21.8% 20.3% 18.0% 20.0% 20.0%Bank non-food credit (avg y-y increase) 11.9% 25.0% 17.2% 27.5% 33.7% 31.3% 24.3% 24.1% 15.0% 23.0% 25.0%Interest rates91-Day T-Bill Yield (year-end) 6.2% 5.8% 4.3% 5.2% 6.5% 7.4% 7.3% 4.7% 5.3% 6.8% 7.0%Repo Rate (year-end) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.5% 7.5% 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 6.5% 6.8%PricesWholesale price index (avg y-y increase) 3.7% 3.4% 5.5% 6.5% 4.4% 5.4% 4.7% 8.4% 3.2% 5.3% 5.5%External sectorCurrent account 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Exports (US$ bn) 44.7 53.8 66.3 85.2 105.2 128.9 166.2 188.2 173.9 216.9 261.5Imports (US$ bn) 56.3 64.5 80.0 118.9 157.1 190.7 257.8 301.9 293.4 364.2 441.6Exports as % of Imports 79% 83% 83% 72% 67% 68% 64% 62% 59% 60% 59%Invisibles, net (US$ bn) 15.0 17.0 27.8 31.2 42.0 52.2 74.6 89.6 92.5 115.2 138.3Current account balance (US$ bn) 3.4 6.3 14.1 (2.5) (9.9) (9.6) (17.0) (24.1) (27.0) (32.2) (41.8)Debt creating capital inflows (US$ bn) 2.3 (1.8) (2.1) 6.2 7.0 22.2 24.9 15.1 8.1 14.5 16.5Total capital -net (US$ bn) 8.6 10.8 16.7 28.0 25.5 45.2 108.0 2.4 56.2 67.3 74.8Foreign currency reserves (US$ bn)* 54.1 75.4 111.6 140.1 150.9 198.7 308.7 251.3 292.7 325.0 363.3Average exchange rate (USD/INR) 47.7 48.4 45.9 45.0 44.3 45.2 40.3 46.0 48.0 44.9 41.6Year end exchange rate (USD/INR) 48.7 47.6 45.0 43.7 44.5 44.0 40.4 51.3 49.0 42.9 41.0

External debt (US$ bn) 98.8 105.0 111.7 123.2 138.1 171.3 224.6 229.9 239.6 255.6 272.1External debt as a percentage of GDP 20.7% 20.7% 18.6% 17.6% 17.1% 18.8% 19.1% 19.9% 19.5% 17.2% 15.0%Fiscal deficit (As % of GDP)-----Central government 6.2% 5.9% 4.5% 4.0% 4.1% 3.5% 2.7% 6.1% 6.8% 5.8% 4.7%-----State government 4.1% 4.1% 4.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.9% 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% 2.3%-----Consolidated Deficit * 9.9% 9.6% 8.5% 7.5% 6.7% 5.6% 4.9% 9.4% 10.0% 8.4% 6.9%

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Macro indicators

Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, Bloomberg, SEBI, Morgan Stanley Research, 14/1/10

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09Trade Balance (US$ billion) -6.1 -1.7 -3.1 -5.0 -5.2 -6.2 -6.0 -8.4 -7.8 -8.8 -9.7 NAExports (US$ billion) 12.4 11.4 12.9 10.7 11.0 12.8 13.6 14.3 13.6 13.2 13.2 NAExports (YoY) -16.8% -24% -25% -33% -29% -28% -28% -19% -14% -7% 18% NAImports (US$ billion) 18.5 -1.7 -3.1 -5.0 -5.2 -6.2 -6.0 -8.4 -7.8 -8.8 -9.7 NAImports (YoY) -19.2% -37% -32% -37% -39% -29% -37% -32% -31% -15% -3% NAForeign Direct Investment (US$ million) 2733 1488 1956 2339 2095 2582 3476 3268 1512 NA NA NAForeign Exchange Reserves (US$ billion) 247.8 248.5 251.3 252.1 261.1 263.3 270.3 275.0 278.5 282.8 285.3 282.1Net FII Flows (US$ million) -869 -539 64 1,477 4,257 695 2,403 827 4,141 1,791 1,142 1,520Rs/US$1 (period average) 48.8 49.2 51.2 50.1 48.5 47.8 48.4 48.4 48.4 46.7 46.6 46.6M3 (YoY) 17.9% 19.6% 18.6% 20.8% 20.5% 20.2% 20.0% 19.4% 19.0% 18.3% 17.8% 17.2%Bank Loans (Non-food credit, YoY) 19.4% 18.5% 17.5% 18.1% 16.1% 15.2% 15.9% 14.2% 13.0% 10.1% 10.5% 12.7%Deposit Growth Rate (YoY) 20.8% 18.7% 21.0% 19.8% 22.5% 22.0% 21.6% 21.8% 20.5% 19.8% 18.9% 18.0%Prime Lending Rate 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%One Year Deposit Rate 8.5% 8.5% 7.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%364 day T-Bill Yield 4.6% 4.7% 5.0% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%91 day T-Bill Yield 4.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.3%10 yr Government Bond Yield 5.9% 6.0% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%Industrial Production 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 2.1% 8.3% 7.2% 10.6% 9.6% 10.3% 11.7% NAManufacturing( in %) 1.0% 0.2% -0.3% 0.4% 1.8% 8.0% 7.4% 10.6% 10.0% 11.1% 12.7% NAConsumer Goods 3.6% -1.3% 1.3% -4.6% -1.1% 4.4% 9.7% 10.9% 9.4% 11.9% 11.1% NABasic Goods -0.7% -0.1% 1.9% 4.5% 3.8% 10.7% 4.7% 7.7% 6.5% 4.6% 6.0% NACapital Goods 6.6% 15.9% 11.8% -6.3% -5.9% -3.6% 13.4% 1.7% 9.2% 13.3% 11.0% NAIntermediate Goods -7.2% -3.0% 1.9% 7.9% 6.6% 7.9% 9.8% 14.4% 11.2% 15.2% 19.4% NAConsumer Price Index (YoY) 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 8.7% 8.6% 9.3% 11.9% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 11.5% NA

Wholesale Price Index (YoY)

- All Commodities 4.9% 3.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% -1.4% -0.7% -0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 4.8% NA

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Any forecasts or opinions expressed are J.P. Morgan’s own at the date of this document and may be subject to change. The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate and your investment is not guaranteed and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Exchange rates may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down or up. Investments in smaller companies may involve a higher degree of risk as they are usually more sensitive to market movements. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than other markets and the risk to your capital is therefore greater. Also, the economic and political situations may be more volatile than in established economies and these may adversely influence the value of investments made. Telephone lines are recorded and may be monitored for security and training purposes.

Issued in the UK by JPMorgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England No. 288553. Registered Office: 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ

THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL ADVISERS ONLY- NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION

jpmorgan indian investment trust plc january 2010

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