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JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust Annual General Meeting 24th November 2016
Omar Negyal, Executive Director Portfolio Manager [email protected] Jeffrey Roskell, Managing Director Portfolio Manager [email protected]
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JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust plc
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Performance JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust plc as of 30th September 2016 – 12 month rolling returns
(%) 30/09/15 to 30/09/16
30/09/14 to 30/09/15
30/09/13 to 30/09/14
30/09/12 to 30/09/13
30/09/11 to 30/09/12
Share price 43.02% -23.12% 5.10% 10.70% 17.46%
Net asset value 36.72% -16.98% 3.62% 10.73% 22.24%
MSCI Emerging Markets Net Index 36.18% -13.61% 4.19% 0.69% 12.81%
Source: Morningstar. J. P. Morgan Asset Management. Inception: July 2010. Benchmark: MSCI Emerging Markets Net. Performance data has been calculated on NAV to NAV basis including ongoing charges and any applicable fees, with any income reinvested, in GBP. Please note Benchmark indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment.
Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for current and future performance.
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JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust - Performance
Source: Annual Report and Accounts. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of 31st July 2016. The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author as at date of this document, which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or constructed as investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. * Total Dividend for last financial year (per share) .
Emerging market equities delivered a strong positive return in the 12 months to 31st July 2016
Equities and currencies have strengthened slightly from cheap levels as sentiment has improved
Emerging market dividends remain under pressure, as companies struggle to increase their payouts against a challenging growth backdrop
The Company’s approach, which is to invest in a diversified portfolio of relatively high-yielding stocks to receive dividends from across sectors and countries, remains unchanged.
31st July 2015 – 31st July 2016
Portfolio return +18.3%
Index +16.7%
Return to shareholders +21.3%
Return on net assets +16.9%
Dividend* 4.90p
Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for current and future performance.
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What do we need to understand? Key questions
Return on Equity (ROE)
Free cash flow
Dividend policy
Dividend yield
Dividend sustainability
Growth over 5 years
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Diversified combination of Income & Growth
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 12 month yield , Eikon, data as of September 2016 .For illustrative purposes only. For a representative account. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
Moneta Bank: Czech Republic financial with consumer lending tilt,
yielding close to 7%.
Low dividend yield Target dividend yield High Dividend Yield
( <3% ) ( 3-6% ) ( >6% )
Target 20% of portfolio
Target 20% of portfolio
Delta Electronics: Taiwanese IT company which has successfully
evolved its business mix over time.
AVI: A South African food products company whose brands span
everything from hot beverages to frozen convenience foods. Dividend
payout 80%.
Target 60% of portfolio
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Portfolio Fund Index
Price to earnings (forward) 12.7x 12.3x
Price to book 2.5x 1.6x
*Gross prospective dividend yield 5.0% 2.8%
Return on equity 19.8 12.9
**Net Debt to Equity 18% 31%
Beta 0.94 (1.00 geared)
Holdings 70 817
Active share 89.8
Portfolio characteristics
Source: UBS PAS, PRISM The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. The portfolio is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. *Portfolio yield is the aggregate weighted sum of the stock level yields which are calculated (12-month forward DPS / Current price)*100. **Net debt to equity ratio excludes financials.
JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust plc as of 30th September 2016
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Performance attribution JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust plc – 12 months to 31st July 2016
Top Contributors Relative weight (%)
Stock return (%)
Impact (%)
Vanguard Intl Semiconductor 2.06 90.53 1.24
Siliconware Precision Industries 1.50 68.29 1.19
Bidvest 1.98 86.79 0.70
Engie Brasil Energia 1.58 49.78 0.52
Tofas 1.71 46.08 0.50
Country attribution (%)
Attribution summary Stock: +0.06 Country: +0.42
Benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Net)
Top Detractors Relative weight (%)
Stock return (%)
Impact (%)
Samsung Electronics -2.80 35.01 -1.32
Advanced Info Service Public 0.74 -44.06 -1.10
Tencent Holdings -2.95 51.79 -0.96
MTN 0.20 -50.79 -0.76
China Resources Power 1.32 -22.12 -0.64
-0.71
-0.32
0.53
-0.17 -1.43 -1.32
-0.91
-0.60
-0.27
0.06 0.13 0.31 0.34 0.53
1.63 3.18
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Cash (o)South Korea (u)South Africa (o)
Thailand (o)India (u)
Saudi Arabia (o)Brazil (o)
Czech Republic (o)
Russia (o)Malaysia (u)Hungary (o)Greece (u)Mexico (u)Turkey (o)China (u)
Taiwan (o)
Stock selection
Asset allocation
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, MSCI, Factset, gross of fees in GBP to 31st July 2016. Data for Total Attribution shown (stock selection plus country allocation). Attribution may not match official returns due to differences in systems, rounding. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio, holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.
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Taiwanese Information Technology company, with minority ownership by TSMC
Beneficiary of the semiconductor outsourcing trend Cash accounts for 70% of balance sheet Management place a strong emphasis on the dividend –
current yield is 5%
JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust – Stock holdings
Turkish telecommunication company Dividend was not ratified at the AGM, causing dividend stream
uncertainty Given this dividend disappointment, we sold this position
...and one that didn’t work: Turkcell
Source: Bloomberg. Company accounts. Data as of November 2016. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass.
One that worked: Vanguard International Semiconductor
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Portfolio positioning in key markets
Data as of 30th September 2016. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. ’Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P.Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to the investor/prospect
0.0
5.0
10.0
Fund%
Index%
+/-
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Fund%
Index%
+/-
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
Fund%
Index%
+/-
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Fund%
Index%
+/-
Other Key Markets
MSCI Russia has 6.6% yield so selective opportunities available
Structural underweight in India
Low payout ratios with expensive valuations
We own consumer names, telecoms, utilities
Avoid banks, low profitability cyclicals, internet, property
Largest overweight Taiwan – particularly Information Technology Largest underweight China – no state owned enterprises (SOEs) or internet held
Brazilian companies have legal obligation to pay out 25%
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What has changed over the year?
We have sold out of Chinese Banks
Financials exposure has remained consistent given new positions in Czech Republic, South Africa and Brazil, not just banks but also insurance companies and stock exchanges
Rotated positions in Russia, which remains an attractive market for yield
Trimmed names which have performed strongly, notably Brazil
Purchases are driven by individual stock opportunities, such as:
– FirstRand – high quality South African Bank
– HKT Trust – Asian telecom
– Bolsa Mexicana – Mexican stock exchange
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management Data as of 30th September 2016 The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass
It’s all about individual companies
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Emerging markets: Dividends and valuations GTM – UK
MSCI EM Index: Long-term growth in dividends per share (DPS) and earnings per share (EPS) in USD
Rebased to 100 at December 1995, in USD
Source: (Left) FactSet, IBES, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - UK. Data as of 30th September 2016. Forecasts, projections and other forward looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations. They are for illustrative purposes only and serve as an indication of what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with forecasts, projections and other forward statements, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated
EM EPS (fwd)
DM EPS (fwd) DM DPS
EM DPS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
Emerging market dividends remain under pressure, as companies struggle to increase their payouts against a challenging growth backdrop
Dividends across EM declined in the financial year and we saw dividend receipts also decline
However, the Company held its dividend as the Board utilised part of the revenue reserve
Our expectation is that payout ratios will be held steady by emerging market companies, but the overall earnings environment remains weak, which means we should still be cautious when considering the trajectory of dividend receipts from the portfolio in the near term
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JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust - Summary
The outlook for emerging markets remains difficult, but there are positive signs
Some currencies are rising from their low levels and trade balances improving, although there are still few signs of a true earnings recovery taking hold
We stick to our philosophy and disciplined approach, continuing to look for individual stocks that generate attractive returns on equity, produce positive free cash flow and have clear and understandable dividend policies
Even in an uncertain environment, we are able to identify many stocks with attractive dividend yields, which we think bodes well for returns to shareholders over the long term
The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author as at date of this document, which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or constructed as investment advice. Investment in emerging markets may be more volatile and therefore risk to your capital could be greater. Emerging Markets may be subject to increased political, regulatory and economic instability, less developed custody and settlement practises, poor transparency and greater financial risks. Emerging market currencies may be subject to volatile price movement
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Investment objective and risk profile JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust plc
Objective
The Company’s investment objective is to provide a dividend income combined with the potential for long term capital growth from a diversified portfolio of emerging markets investments.
Risk Profile
Exchange rate changes may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down as well as up.
Investments in emerging markets may involve a higher element of risk due to political and economic instability and underdeveloped markets and systems. Shares may also be traded less frequently than those on established markets. This means that there may be difficulty in both buying and selling shares and individual share prices may be subject to short-term price fluctuations.
This trust may invest in non investment grade bonds which increases the capital risk and have an adverse effect on the performance of funds which invest in them.
Where permitted, a trust may invest in other investment trusts that utilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.
For income funds/shares - Dividend income is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
Investing in high yielding stocks may involve a higher degree of risk as high yields are not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same time.
This trust may utlilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.
This trust may also invest in smaller companies which may increase its risk profile
Investment in emerging markets may be more volatile and therefore risk to your capital could be greater. Emerging Markets may be subject to increased political, regulatory and economic instability, less developed custody and settlement practises, poor transparency and greater financial risks. Emerging market currencies may be subject to volatile price movement.
Please refer to the Investment Trust Profiles Document for more information relating to the Fund.
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J.P. Morgan Asset Management
This is a promotional document and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P.Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the product(s) or underlying overseas investments. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment product(s), there can be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. You should note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines may be recorded and monitored for legal, security and training purposes. You should also take note that information and data from communications with you will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with the EMEA Privacy Policy which can be accessed through the following website http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/privacy. This material should not be considered as a recommendation relating to the acquisition or disposal of investments. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and investors should ensure that they obtain all relevant information before making any investment. Investment is subject to documentation Investment Trust Profiles and Key Features and Terms and Conditions, copies of which can be obtained free of charge from J.P. Morgan Asset Management Marketing Limited. Issued by J.P. Morgan Asset Management Marketing Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No. 288553. Registered address: 25 Bank St, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.
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