jpm gold watch - 01062012

www.morganmarkets.com

South Africa Equity Research06 January 2012

J.P. Morgan Gold WatchNews, Earnings & Valuation Metrics & Gold price trends

Gold & Precious Metals

Allan Cooke AC

(27-11) 507-0384

[email protected]

Steve Shepherd AC

(27-11) 507-0386

[email protected]

Abhishek Tiwari AC

(27-11) 507-0363

[email protected]

James Wellsted

(27-11) 507-0387

[email protected]

J.P. Morgan Equities Ltd.

See page 17 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Gold shares look cheap on spot prices with average P/NPV of 0.52x. On a 12m fwd P/E basis, the majors are trading between 8.0-9.3x, with GFI cheapest at 8.0x and Harmony the most expensive at 9.3x. We have also included, for the first time, charts showing historical relationships between gold price and crude oil prices, copper prices, US money supply and the S&P500 in the Gold Watch.

Company News:

Harmony requested the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to cancel its listing on the exchange effective 13th Jan, 2012. (SENS December 12, 2011)

Harmony suspended operations at the Hidden Valley mine for a day after a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in PNG as a precautionary measure. No major damage was detected and no injuries were reported due to the earthquake. (SENS December 15, 2011)

Harmony announced that Hannes Meyer has resigned from his post as a financial director of the company with effect from 14 Mar, 2012. (SENSDecember 15, 2011)

Harmony reported the death of a mineworker in a mud-rush accident at its Doornkop mine. Investigations into the accident are under way.(SENS January 04, 2012)

Peruvian government said that mining companies must set up an environmental conservation fund as part of future contracts. The fund will be used to remedy any damage to the natural surroundings. (Bloomberg January 05, 2012)

AngloGold Ashanti reported the death of a worker at its Savuka mine in a fall-of-ground accident. Production at the mine has been suspended pending an investigation. (Bloomberg January 05, 2012)

Table 1: Key Forecasts

Share J.P. Morgan J.P. Morgan F/c EPS J.P. Morgan Upside to price Recommendation FY12E FY13E Target price Target price

AngloGold Ashanti 353.75 Underweight 53.16 54.33 375.00 6%Gold Fields 125.50 Overweight 18.87 19.08 144.00 15%Harmony 96.37 Overweight 10.88 12.83 129.00 34%DRDGold 4.65 Overweight 1.07 1.10 8.27 78%Randgold Resources ($) 108.27 Overweight 9.73 9.13 142.80 32%Koza Gold (TRY) 24.40 Overweight 3.95 3.10 29.24 20%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. Share prices as on cob January 05, 2012

Our Bloomberg Analyst Pages:

Bloomberg JPMA COOKE <GO>

Bloomberg JPMA SHEPHERD <GO>

2


Allan Cooke(27-11) [email protected]

Gold One reported sales of 123koz of gold in 2011, some 3% ahead of the 120koz guidance. As a result of production exceeding the guidance, the Jintu transaction claw-back clause was not triggered. (SENS January05, 2012)

Pan African renewed its cautionary and stated that it is still in discussions which, if successfully concluded, may have a material effect on its share price. (SENS December 28, 2011)

Commodity News:

The spot rand gold price changed by -6.0% since 08 Dec to a Thursday close of R426,607/kg (R454,113/kg) with the dollar gold price changing by -5.0% to $1,623/oz ($1,708/oz) and the exchange rate changing by -1.1% to R8.179:$1 (R8.268:$1).

Bombay Bullion Association forecast that Indian gold demand coulddecline by 48% to 150t (1Q2011: 286t) in the current quarter on the back of a weaker currency and high interest rates. (Bloomberg January 03, 2012)

3



Earnings & Valuation metrics Table 2: Spot valuation metrics

ZAR/sh

Share J.P. Morgan Spot Spot Spot EPS J.P. Morgan F/c EPS Consensus EPS Spot P/E J.P. Morgan Forecast P/E Consensus P/E

price Recommendation DCF P/DCF FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E

AngloGold Ashanti 353.75 Underweight 482.63 0.73 48.47 59.91 53.16 54.33 45.81 46.49 7.30 5.90 6.65 6.51 7.72 7.61 Gold Fields 125.50 Overweight 214.86 0.58 18.00 21.97 18.87 19.08 19.88 18.41 6.97 5.71 6.65 6.58 6.31 6.82 Harmony 96.37 Overweight 245.52 0.39 11.63 15.88 10.88 12.83 7.89 11.69 8.29 6.07 8.86 7.51 12.21 8.24 DRDGold 4.65 Overweight 11.67 0.40 1.19 1.33 1.07 1.10 1.07 1.11 3.91 3.50 4.35 4.23 4.35 4.20 Randgold Resources ($) 108.27 Overweight 89.24 1.21 8.07 8.69 9.73 9.13 6.95 7.27 13.42 12.46 11.13 11.86 15.58 14.89 Koza Gold (TRY) 24.40 Overweight 21.09 1.16 4.47 4.13 3.95 3.10 4.08 3.70 5.46 5.91 6.18 7.87 5.99 6.60 Average 0.75 7.56 6.59 7.30 7.43 8.69 8.06

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Share prices as on cob January 05, 2012. Consensus EPS from Bloomberg as on January 05, 2012. Spot prices used Au: $1,623/oz, R/$: 8.27

Table 3: J.P. Morgan average gold price & exchange rate forecasts

2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E LT

Gold ($/oz) 973 1,225 1,709 1,869 1,750 1,300R/$ 8.41 7.31 6.96 7.55 8.10 7.40Gold (R/kg) 262,795 287,587 382,571 453,766 455,511 309,290

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates

Table 4: Relative share price performance

ZAR/sh

Share price 12-month low 12-month high 1 Week return 1 Month return 3 Month return 6 Month return 12 Month returnGold price (R/kg) 426,131 296,723 473,887 5% -4% 1% 29% 44%AngloGold Ashanti 353.75 273.33 391.82 3% -4% 8% 24% 14%Gold Fields 125.50 95.05 145.43 0.7% -6% 5% 27% 10%Harmony 96.37 74.00 116.09 1% -13% 1% 10% 22%DRDGold 4.65 2.88 5.95 1% -14% 10% 43% 44%Randgold Resources 108.27 70.18 120.73 7% 0% 14% 57% 64%Koza Gold 24.40 17.55 30.20 -1% -17% 11% 13% 17%Gold One 4.20 2.14 4.59 -3% -6% 1% 15% 79%Great Basin Gold 8.48 7.30 20.69 9% 9% -31% -38% -54%Central Rand Gold 0.19 0.04 0.62 0% 217% 280% 90% -37%Wits Gold 39.80 33.95 60.00 0% -11% -7% 6% -28%Pan African Resources 1.92 1.08 2.04 4% -4% 35% 63% 74%

Source: Bloomberg. Share prices as on cob January 05, 2012.

4



Share price performance (to cob January 05, 2012)

Figure 1: SA Gold shares 1 week returns

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 2: SA Gold shares 1 month returns

Source: Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg


Source: Bloomberg.


Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 6: Share price vs 52 week range

Source: Bloomberg

4.8%

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Gold price (R/kg)

JSE Gold Index

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Gold Fields

Harmony

DRDGold

Randgold Resources

Koza Gold

Gold One

Great Basin Gold

Central Rand Gold

Wits Gold

Pan African Resources

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JSE Gold Index

AngloGold Ashanti

Gold Fields

Harmony

DRDGold

Randgold Resources

Koza Gold

Gold One

Great Basin Gold

Central Rand Gold

Wits Gold


1%

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JSE Gold Index

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Gold Fields

Harmony

DRDGold

Randgold Resources

Koza Gold

Gold One

Great Basin Gold

Central Rand Gold

Wits Gold


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Gold Fields

Harmony

DRDGold

Randgold Resources

Koza Gold

Gold One

Great Basin Gold

Central Rand Gold

Wits Gold


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Gold Fields

Harmony

DRDGold

Randgold Resources

Koza Gold

Gold One

Great Basin Gold

Central Rand Gold

Wits Gold


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Gold Spot Earnings & Valuations at a glance (Spotter Bloomberg Version) (click to open)

Source: SA Platinum & Gold Super Spotter 16 September 2011.

1. These are rand and gold \price in real terms (Jul-12), with nominal metal price increasing by 2.5% pa and rand weakening by 5% pa against the US dollar.

2. Share prices as on cob January 05, 2012

3. Harmony DCF uses a spot copper price of $8,700/t

4. Randgold Resources share price in rands is based on the US dollar share price and Rand/$ exchange rate shown

5. EPS are for next 12 months calculated as a weighted average from our EPS forecasts for the current FY and the next FY, weighted according to the number of days left in the current FY.

6. Consensus EPS are consensus for the next 12 months calculated as a weighted average from Bloomberg consensus EPS as on cob January 05, 2012

SA Platinum & Gold Sensitivity Spotter 16 September 2011Enter your own metal price and exchange rate assumptions

Spot values Your assumptions Difference Valuation guide

Allowed Range 1 Bloomberg Enter values % ch

Rand: R5.00/$ - R12.00/$ - 0.78 - 10%

Gold: $1,000/oz - $2,100/oz - 323 - 20%

(=>R160,754/kg - R810,198/kg) = R 426,707 / kg = R 309,290 / kg - 117,418 - 28%(=>R192,904/kg - R803,768/kg) + 57,627 + 19%

Rand output of NPV and EPS when P:NPV when P:NPV

Price: NPV ratios Price (R) 3 NPV (R) P:NPV NPV (R) P:NPV NPV ch. % ch is below: is above :

AngloGold Ashanti 353.75 482.63 0.73 235.16 1.50 (247.47) - 51% 1.00x 1.50x

DRDGold 4.65 11.67 0.40 3.19 1.46 (8.48) - 73% 1.00x 1.50x

Gold Fields 125.50 214.86 0.58 106.46 1.18 (108.40) - 50% 1.00x 1.50x

Harmony 96.37 245.52 0.39 132.86 0.73 (112.66) - 46% 1.00x 1.50x

Randgold Resources 4 885.53 729.85 1.21 446.92 1.98 (282.93) - 39% 1.50x 2.00x

No-man's-land between

P/E ratios EPS5(SAcps) P/E EPS5(SAcps) P/E EPS ch. % ch P/E

AngloGold Ashanti 353.75 4,165 8.5 1,276 27.7 (2,889) - 69% 4,582 7.7

DRDGold 4.65 89 5.2 29 16.0 (60) - 67% 109 4.3

Gold Fields 125.50 1,525 8.2 440 28.6 (1,085) - 71% 1,985 6.3

Harmony 96.37 1,003 9.6 (16) N/A (1,019) N/A 986 9.8

Randgold Resources 885.53 6,342 14.0 3,850 23.0 (2,492) - 39% 5,702 15.5

R 8.18/$ R 7.40/$

$ 1,623/oz $ 1,300/oz

Tempting ToppishR 310,728/kg 6E R 368,355/kg 6E

Consensus

EPS6(SAcps)

Click to open

Spotter I-Net Version

Spotter Reuters Version

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-678380-0.xls


https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=email&doc=GPS-563633-0.xls

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=email&doc=GPS-563631-0.xls

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/UserDocsHelperServlet?action=openpdf&docId=GPS-400501-0


6



Cash cost curves

Figure 7: ANG cash cost curve (Actual)

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 8: GFI cash cost curve (Actual)


Figure 9: HAR cash cost curve (Actual)


Figure 10: DRD cash cost curve (Actual)


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7



Figure 11: RRS cash cost curve (Actual)


Figure 12: Koza Gold cash cost curve


Figure 13: SA Gold sector cash cost curve (Actual)


Figure 14: SA Gold sector NCE curve (Actual)


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Average 2H 2010 Cash Cost $343/oz

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Average 3Q CY11 NCE $1,206/oz

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8



ETFs and Comex net positions

Figure 15: ETF Holdings

Source: ETF Securities, ZKB, Exchange traded gold and Bloomberg

Figure 16: Gold & 5 major producer's share price

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 17: Gold open non-commercial positions on ComexNumber of contracts

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 18: SA Gold shares spot P/NPV

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates

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Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

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streetTRACKS Gold Trust (USA) iShares COMEX Gold (USA) Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities (LSE)NewGold Issuer Ltd (JSE) Gold Bullion Securities Ltd (ASX) ETFSecurities(LSE)Metal Securities (ASX) ZKB Gold ETF Metal Securities Ltd (Swiss)Julius Baer Gold Fund Central fund of canada Central Gold TrustClaymore Deutsche-Bourse Xetra-Gold

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AngloGold Gold Fields

Harmony Gold

Total ETF Holdings = 71.3Moz (Dec 09: 72.8Moz)

Net long positions as on December 27 = 13.1Moz (December 06: 16.0Moz)

9



Gold prices

Figure 19: Gold price

USD/oz

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 20: Gold priceZAR/oz

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 21: Gold price in major producer's currencies (Indexed to Nov-04)

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 22: Gold price in major consumer's currencies (Indexed to Nov-04)

Source: Bloomberg

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10



Gold price relationships

Figure 23: Barrels of crude oil (Brent) an ounce of gold can buy

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 24: Kgs of copper an ounce of gold can buy

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 25: US Money supply and gold price

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 26: S&P 500 and gold price

Source: Bloomberg

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11



Currencies

Figure 27: ZAR against US dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 28: Euro against US dollar

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 29: Australian dollar against US dollar

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 30: Canadian dollar against US dollar

Source: Bloomberg.

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Gold price vs Sector performance

Figure 31: Rand gold price vs FTSE/JSE Gold Index

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 32: JSE gold Index/Rand gold price (Indexed to 100 as on Jan-01)

Source: Bloomberg.

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Figure 33: Gold price ($/oz) and Chicago Board Options Volatility Index

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 34: Gold price ($/oz) and Chicago Board Options Volatility Index

Source: Bloomberg.

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Gold Equities 12m share price performance relative to FTSE/JSE Gold Index (Indexed to 100 on Jan-11)

Figure 35: AngloGold Ashanti Figure 36: Gold Fields Figure 37: Harmony

Figure 38: DRDGold Figure 39: Randgold Resources Figure 40: Koza gold

Source: Bloomberg. Randgold Resources and Koza Gold share price converted into South African Rands using the prevailing exchange rates.

Our top picks: Harmony, Gold Fields, DRDGold, Koza Gold & Randgold Resources

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Gold Equities 12m share price performance relative to FTSE/JSE Gold Index (Indexed to 100 on Jan-11)

Figure 41: Gold One Figure 42: Great Basin Gold Figure 43: Central Rand Gold

Figure 44: Wits Gold Figure 45: Pan African Resources

Source: Bloomberg.

Our top picks: Harmony, Gold Fields, DRDGold, Koza Gold & Randgold Resources

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16



Glossary of published research (Click on the name to read)

1. Gold & Precious Metals: Gold Survey results: Investors want to be paid dividends while they wait for bigger gold prices

Dec 02, 2011

2. Gold Fields Ltd: Possible changes in taxation regime in Ghana could impact Tarkwa and Damang Nov 18, 2011

3. Gold Fields Ltd: Postcard from Peru - Cerro Corona site visit Nov 17, 2011

4. Gold Fields Ltd: Site visit - Chucapaca project in Peru scoped at 400-600kozpa from 2015 (51% GFI/49% BVN) Nov 15, 2011

5. Gold Fields Ltd: 3Q11 core EPS of SA291c on higher gold price. FY11 production guidance of 3.5Moz "unchanged" Nov 10, 2011

6. AngloGold Ashanti Limited: 3Q11 AHEPS of SA857c. Strong result on higher gold price. Surprise SA90c quarterly dividend

Nov 09, 2011

7. DRDGold Ltd: Proposed sale of Blyvoor for R150m in Village shares. Disappointing consideration but investment thesis intact

Nov 08, 2011

8. DRDGold Ltd: Blyvoor mine sale process underway. Strong dividend prospects. Raising price target to 827c. Nov 08, 2011

9. SA Platinum & Gold Sensitivity Spotter Sep 16, 2011

10. SA Gold Foresight: Rampant gold price, miserable equity ratings. Gold stocks dirt cheap. Ratings changes: ANG to UW, DRD to OW, KOZAL to OW

Sep 14, 2011

For Morgan Markets access, please contact your J.P. Morgan sales representative

1. SA: Matthew Calvocoressi (+27-11-507 0614) or Kaveer Joshi (+27-11-507 0615)

2. Europe: Marc Pouey (+44-207-779-3475) or Priscille Callies (+44-207-779 2688) or Amanda Sehayek (+44-207-779 2958)

3. North America: Charlie Brooke (+1-212-622 2868) or Igor Chernomorskiy (+1-212-622 6079) or Alexander Doncov (+1-212-622 2935)

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-675916-0.pdf














17



Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.

Important Disclosures

Lead or Co-manager: J.P. Morgan acted as lead or co-manager in a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for Gold Fields Ltd within the past 12 months.

Analyst Position: The following analysts (and/or their associates or household members) own a long position in the shares of Gold Fields Ltd: Steve Shepherd, James Wellsted. The following analysts (and/or their associates or household members) own a long position in the shares of Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd: James Wellsted.

Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Gold Fields Ltd, Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd, Koza Gold, Randgold Resources Ltd.

Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as investment banking clients: Gold Fields Ltd.

Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Gold Fields Ltd, Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd.

Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-securities-related: Gold Fields Ltd, Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd.

Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. Morgan received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking Gold Fields Ltd.

Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Gold Fields Ltd, Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd.

Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Gold Fields Ltd, Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd.

Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies by visiting https://mm.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/company, calling 1-800-477-0406, or emailing [email protected] with your request.

Date Rating Share Price (c)

Price Target (c)

05-Oct-06 OW 1010 1560

23-Oct-06 OW 970 1460

20-Nov-06 OW 850 1190

12-Dec-06 OW 637 1070

01-Mar-07 OW 524 660

17-Apr-07 OW 515 590

17-Jul-07 N 498 510

13-Sep-07 UW 510 500

28-Feb-08 UW 960 600

01-Sep-08 UW 415 430

10-Nov-08 UW 400 420

06-Mar-09 UW 940 850

13-May-09 UW 745 570

03-Sep-09 UW 602 450

11-Dec-09 OW 424 530

19-Apr-10 N 378 420

09-Sep-10 UW 300 330

12-Jan-11 UW 326 310

05-May-11 UW 366 380

0

271

542

813

1,084

1,355

1,626

1,897

Price(c)

Sep06

Jun07

Mar08

Dec08

Sep09

Jun10

Mar11

Dec11

DRDGold Ltd (DRDJ.J) Price Chart

OW 1,190cOW 590c

OW 1,460cOW 660c UW 500c UW 420c UW 570c OW 530c OW 827c

OW 1,560cOW 1,070c N 510c UW 600c UW 430c UW 850cUW 450c N 420cUW 330cUW 310cUW 380cOW 540c

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.

Initiated coverage Oct 05, 2006.

mailto:[email protected]

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/company

18



14-Sep-11 OW 400 540

08-Nov-11 OW 550 827


Price Target (c)

05-Oct-06 OW 13772 15600

23-Oct-06 OW 12880 13600

20-Nov-06 OW 12349 12300

12-Dec-06 OW 12449 14400

16-Feb-07 OW 12560 17000

17-Jul-07 OW 12100 13631

13-Sep-07 OW 12060 14300

13-Dec-07 OW 10600 12700

28-Feb-08 OW 10650 13000

20-Jun-08 OW 8802 13400

11-Aug-08 N 6950 9800

10-Nov-08 N 6950 9100

06-Mar-09 OW 11401 14400

13-May-09 OW 10770 12300

03-Sep-09 OW 10399 11000

11-Dec-09 OW 10555 13200

22-Mar-10 OW 9178 12100

19-Apr-10 OW 9361 11600

09-Sep-10 OW 10715 13300

12-Jan-11 OW 11849 13600

05-May-11 OW 11311 14300

14-Sep-11 OW 12350 14400


Price Target (c)

05-Oct-06 N 10351 12300

23-Oct-06 N 10826 12000

20-Nov-06 N 11140 12400

12-Dec-06 N 10700 14200

13-Dec-06 OW 10700 14200

08-Mar-07 OW 9750 11600

12-Mar-07 N 9912 11600

17-Jul-07 N 10300 11275

13-Sep-07 OW 7515 9200

13-Dec-07 OW 7180 8100

28-Feb-08 OW 9480 11600

09-May-08 OW 9200 13200

20-Jun-08 OW 8870 11600

10-Nov-08 OW 7000 10800

06-Mar-09 N 11950 14100

13-May-09 N 9300 10000

03-Sep-09 UW 8000 7300

11-Dec-09 UW 7840 8800

19-Apr-10 UW 6950 8100

17-May-10 N 7900 9200

09-Sep-10 OW 7863 10200

12-Jan-11 OW 7841 10300

25-Mar-11 OW 9500 12600

05-May-11 OW 9700 12900

0

3,221

6,442

9,663

12,884

16,105

19,326

22,547

Price(c)

Sep06

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Sep09

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Gold Fields Ltd (GFIJ.J) Price Chart

OW 12,300c OW 12,700c N 9,100c

OW 13,600cOW 17,000cOW 14,300c N 9,800c OW 12,300cOW 13,200cOW 11,600c

OW 15,600cOW 14,400cOW 13,630.828cOW 13,000cOW 13,400c OW 14,400cOW 11,000cOW 12,100cOW 13,300cOW 13,600cOW 14,300cOW 14,400c



0

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5,578

8,367

11,156

13,945

16,734

19,523

Price(c)

Sep06

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Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (HARJ.J) Price Chart

N 12,400cOW 11,600c OW 8,100cOW 11,600c OW 12,900c

N 12,000cOW 14,200c OW 9,200c OW 13,200c N 10,000cUW 8,800cN 9,200c OW 12,600c

N 12,300cN 14,200cN 11,600cN 11,275c OW 11,600c OW 10,800cN 14,100cUW 7,300c UW 8,100cOW 10,200cOW 10,300c



19



Date Rating Share Price (TL)

Price Target (TL)

21-May-10 OW 39.75 45.71

30-Jun-10 N 15.10 14.76

09-Sep-10 N 14.20 16.32

12-Jan-11 N 21.40 20.22

05-May-11 N 23.55 25.79

14-Sep-11 OW 23.25 29.24

Date Rating Share Price (p)

Price Target (p)

05-Oct-06 OW 1024 1490

23-Oct-06 OW 1121 1420

21-Nov-06 OW 1141 1340

12-Dec-06 OW 1160 1520

08-Mar-07 OW 1180 1460

17-Jul-07 OW 1143 1430

13-Sep-07 OW 1415 1580

13-Dec-07 OW 1683 1920

28-Feb-08 OW 2640 2680

20-Jun-08 OW 2001 2420

10-Nov-08 OW 1958 2510

17-Feb-09 OW 3498 3600

06-Mar-09 OW 3431 3910

13-May-09 OW 3839 4090

03-Sep-09 OW 4022 5150

11-Dec-09 OW 4989 5840

19-Apr-10 OW 5145 6240

09-Sep-10 OW 6100 7930

12-Jan-11 OW 5225 6480

05-May-11 OW 4973 6150

14-Sep-11 OW 6910 8930

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight

Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst's (or the analyst's team's) coverage universe.] In our Asia (ex-Australia) and UK small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, www.morganmarkets.com.

0

13

26

39

52

65

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Feb10

May10

Aug10

Nov10

Feb11

May11

Aug11

Nov11

Koza Gold (KOZAL.IS) Price Chart

N TL16.316

N TL14.759

OW TL45.711 N TL20.223 N TL25.794 OW TL29.24


Initiated coverage May 21, 2010.

0

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4,130

6,195

8,260

10,325

12,390

Price(p)

Sep06

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Dec08

Sep09

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Dec11

Randgold Resources Ltd (RRS.L) Price Chart

OW 1,340p OW 1,920p OW 3,910p

OW 1,420pOW 1,460pOW 1,580p OW 3,600p OW 5,840p

OW 1,490pOW 1,520p OW 1,430p OW 2,680pOW 2,420pOW 2,510pOW 4,090pOW 5,150p OW 6,240pOW 7,930pOW 6,480pOW 6,150pOW 8,930p



20



Coverage Universe: Cooke, Allan: AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ANGJ.J), DRDGold Ltd (DRDJ.J), Gold Fields Ltd (GFIJ.J), Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (HARJ.J), Koza Gold (KOZAL.IS), Randgold Resources Ltd (RRS.L)

Shepherd, Steve: Anglo American Platinum Ltd (AMSJ.J), Anooraq Resources Corp (ARQ.V), Anooraq Resources Corp (ARQJ.J) (ARQJ.J), Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP.L), Aquarius Platinum Limited (SA) (AQPJ.J), Eastern Platinum Ltd. (EPSJ.J), Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (IMPJ.J), Lonmin plc (LMI.L), Lonmin plc (LONJ.J) (LONJ.J), Northam Platinum Ltd (NHMJ.J), Royal Bafokeng Platinum Limited (RBPJ.J)

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2011

Overweight(buy)

Neutral(hold)

Underweight(sell)

J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 47% 42% 12%IB clients* 52% 45% 36%

JPMS Equity Research Coverage 45% 47% 8%IB clients* 72% 62% 58%

*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.

Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http://www.morganmarkets.com , contact the primary analyst or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email [email protected].

Equity Analysts' Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.

Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Other Disclosures

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Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporation's Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCC's website at http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf

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http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf

mailto:[email protected]

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21



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General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to JPMS and/or its affiliates and the analyst's involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. JPMS distributes in the U.S. research published by non-U.S. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise.

"Other Disclosures" last revised September 30, 2011.

Copyright 2011 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P

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