jordan in the eye of the storm

8/12/2019 Jordan in the Eye of the Storm

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Jordan in the Eye of the Storm

Continued U.S. Support Necessary with Ongoing Regional Turm

By Brian Katulis, Hardin Lang, and Mokhtar Awad June 2014


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Jordan in the Eye of the StormContinued U.S. Support Necessary

with Ongoing Regional Turmoil

By Brian Katulis, Hardin Lang, and Mokhtar Awad June 2014


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1 Introduction and summary

5 Jordans response to regional changes

and internal challenges since 2011

9 Jordans response to Islamist movements

20 Recommendations for U.S. policy in Jordan

25 Conclusion

28 Endnotes

Contents


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1 Center for American Progress | Jordan in the Eye of the Storm

Introduction and summary

Jordan sis a he hear o a region acing increasing urmoil. o he norh, he civil

war in Syria rages on unabaed; so ar, i has sen more han 600,000 Syrians ino

Jordan.1Te war in Syria has moivaed Islamis exremisssome o whom are

receiving financial, ideological, and poliical suppor rom cerain counries and pri-

vae individuals in he Persian Gulo use Jordanian erriory o recrui and send

milians ino batle agains he Assad regime.

o he eas, Iraqs unresolved conflic is becoming increasingly inerwined wihhe Syrian civil war, adding o Jordans immediae securiy woes. Te Israeli-

Palesinian conflicas well as he collapse o he laes round o peace alkshas

conribued o a sense o uncerainy regarding Jordans long-erm uure. Tese

unavorable regional dynamics are sraining Jordans already ragile economic,

social, and poliical condiions.

In he ace o hese considerable challenges, Jordans governmen remains resil-

ien and adapable bu heavily dependen on ouside suppor o survive. Despie

repeaed predicions o collapse, Jordans monarchy has avoided he chaos experi-

enced in Syria and Iraq, and i has defly coped wih he poliical currens emana-

ing rom he 2011 uprisings ha spread across he region. Jordans monarchy has

suck o is playbook o managing limied change rom above. I has made only

sligh moves and gesures oward poliical and economic reorm, while keeping

close abs on challenges o is poliical legiimacy and working aggressively o

conain inernal securiy hreas generaed by he regional urmoil.

Jordan remains one o he Unied Saes closes, mos reliable, and mos rused

parners in he Middle Eas, and he counry requires help o address he spillover

effecs o he conflics in Syria and Iraq. Te suppor needed mos urgenly isconinued securiy cooperaion, including inelligence sharing, surveillance, and

miliary equipmen o help Jordan manage serious securiy hreas. In addiion,

coninued and increased humaniarian aid or reugees is essenial. Te Unied

Saes should work wih parners in he region and Europe o help Jordan deal

wih growing energy and waer crises ha are exacerbaed by he high numbers o


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reugees. Finally, he Unied Saes needs o coninue o urge Jordans governmen

o implemen a pragmaic program or long-erm poliical and economic reorm.

Such a reorm program is essenial o help Jordan manage he demographic, social,

and economic pressures ha hreaen o undermine is long-erm sabiliy.

Similar o oher governmens in he region, Jordan aces poliical and securiychallenges emanaing rom a range o Islamis groups, including he Muslim

Broherhood and Salafiss. Unlike in Egyp, Saudi Arabia, and he Unied Arab

Emiraes, however, he Muslim Broherhood is no banned in Jordan, and he

monarchy has worked o include he Muslim Broherhood in poliical lie. Te

regime has also worked o co-op Islamis orces and neuralize heir hrea o

Jordans power srucure.

Jordan has a number o Salafi and jihadi movemens ha have been galvanized by

conflics in he region. Many have channeled heir energy and resources oward

he civil war in Syria. Bu heir enduring presence poses several quesions regard-ing Jordans long-erm sabiliy, as well as abou he long-sanding ideological

crosscurrens now affecing Jordan and he Middle Eas as a whole.

Tis repor is based on a series o inerviews conduced in Jordan in March. Te

Cener or American Progress alked o a wide range o leaders wihin he govern-

men and acors involved in poliical movemens and civil sociey, including hose in

Islamis movemens. Tis sudy is par o a our-counry research projec conduced

by CAP in Egyp, unisia, Jordan, and Syriaour counries experiencing diverse

securiy, poliical, and economic dynamics. One specific objecive o his research

projec is o examine how differen counries are responding o he Arab uprisings

ha began in 2011, as well as he growh and evoluion o poliical Islamis groups

including he Muslim Broherhood and Salafissover he pas hree years.

Key findings o his research in Jordan include:

The current Jordanian system will endure, but pressure from external threats

is mounting and putting a strain on the fragile body politic.Syrian reugeespresence is urher exacerbaing domesic demands or poliical and economic

reorms. Syrias descen ino chaos may discourage Jordanians rom revoluion,bu i does no seem o be semming he ide o disconen among Jordanians

abou he curren economic and poliical sysem.Syrians in Jordan now amoun onearly 10 percen o he counrys populaion, which could urher desabilize he

demographic makeup o a counry careully balanced beween he ruling minoriy

o naive-Jordanian Eas Bankers and majoriy Palesinian-origin Wes Bankers.


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The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood is recalibrating its strategy with an eye

toward building coalitions in the face of a regional tide against Islamists. Te

Jordanian Muslim Broherhood, or JMB, is now seeking o build alliances wih

Jordans ribes and oher segmens o sociey in order o quiely omen dissen

agains he monarchy and pressure i o implemen reorms. While he JMB

remains perhaps he larges orce in he counrys poliical opposiion, i doesno currenly pose a hrea o Jordans radiional power srucure.

Jordans Salafi landscape is slowly evolving, but Salafi jihadists are emerging

as the most imminent strategic and security threat to the current system of

government. Syrias civil war has served as a lieline o Jordans Salafiss. Tey

benefi rom an injecion o cash rom cerain sources in Persian Gul counries

and he reedom o underake he kind o chariy work ha Salafiss have used in

oher counries o grow heir suppor base. Te Salafi jihadiss acive fighing role

in Syria has caapuled hem o prominence. Teir cadres, which have now been

inspired by nearby revoluion and jihad, will ulimaely se heir sighs on heJordanian regime.

Recommendaions or U.S. policy include:

Continued support for Jordan in response to the Syria conflict. Te Unied

Saes already provides significan assisance o Jordan, bu Jordan will require

addiional suppor o mee he needs o he more han 600,000 Syrian reugees

already in he counry. o his end, he Unied Saes should leverage is subsan-

ial humaniarian assisance porolio o moivae he Persian Gul counries o use

more o heir considerable oil wealh o help he Syrian reuges living hroughou

Jordan. Te Unied Saes should also make available high-end inelligence and

surveillance capabiliies o help he Jordanian miliary beter manage is border.

Increased intelligence cooperation on the evolving nature of Islamist ideolo-

gies to counter violent extremism. Te Unied Saes and Jordan should work

ogeher o ormulae an analyical effor ha racks he evoluion o ideology

among various Islamis groups, paricularly in ligh o he conflics in Syria and

Iraq. Te Unied Saes should also enhance ongoing effors o couner violen

exremism in Jordan hrough suppor or a-risk youh, messaging ha counersexremis narraives, and building Jordans capaciy o underake hese effors.

Te proposed $5 billion Counererrorism Parnerships Fund announced by

Presiden Barack Obama in May could be paricularly beneficial in helping

Jordan deal wih he problems o exremism.2


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Support for inclusive political and economic reform. Te Unied Saes should

coninue o urge Jordans governmen o implemen a realisic bu serious pro-

gram o poliical and economic reorm. Tis program should include coninued

effors o develop poliical paries, increase press reedom, and finalize elecoral

law reorm. Te Unied Saes should work wih Jordan and oher donors o

encourage invesmen in projecs ha deal wih srains on Jordans inrasrucureand help creae jobs. I should also renew a five-year aid package ha is due o

expire laer his year. However, he Unied Saes should add incenives o ensure

ha addiional assisance serves as a bridge o long-erm economic reorms ha

creae jobs raher han osering coninued dependency.

In recen years, he Hashemie Kingdom o Jordan has wihsood repeaed shocks

o is sysem. Massive reugee flows, srain on he economy, and new orms o

Islamis exremism have hreaened Jordans sabiliy. Trough i all, Jordan has

persevered, and U.S. miliary, humaniarian, and economic assisance have been

key ingrediens o is success. Going orward, however, Jordan will need o under-ake meaningul reorms. Only hrough more inclusive poliics and an economy

weaned o aid dependence can Jordan pu isel on a sable and susainable pah

over he long erm.


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Jordans response to regional

changes and internal

challenges since 2011

Jordan has weahered regional pressures or decades, including he millions o

Palesinian reugees rom successive Arab-Israeli wars and he Iraqi reugees who

have arrived over he pas decade. Bu he counry aces new and unique pres-

sures rom he civil war in Syria, wih more han 600,000 Syrian reugees sraining

Jordans ragile inrasrucure, economy, and poliical sysem. When he wave o

popular proess swep across much o he Middle Eas in 2011, new quesions

arose abou he viabiliy o Jordans poliical and economic sysem.

Similar o mos oher counries in he region, Jordan winessed sree proess.

Bu is movemens were mued in comparison o wha ranspired in Egyp and

unisia. Te governmen used he same playbook i has used in he pas: I

announced a modes, incremenal pahway or poliical and economic reorms

and slow-rolled heir implemenaion.3Te securiy services worked aggressively

o preven any possible securiy hreas. Unlike in Egyp and Yemen, hey played

his role quiely and remained loyal o he regime.

Te ollowing acors have shaped Jordans response o he underlying pressures

ha have driven he Arab uprisings.

Unity among the ruling elites

Te uniy among Jordans ruling elies is perhaps he single mos imporan acor

conribuing o he counrys coninued securiy and he limied changes i has

experienced in he more han hree years since he sar o he Arab uprisings.

As one miniser in Jordans curren governmen explained, I is a sable regime

in Jordanhe imporan hings are under he regime, and i has hings underconrol. Te opposiion can come and go, bu he regime says he same. Tere is

a srong auhoriyhe miliary and he inelligence, and he prime miniser is

moniored by he king.4Tere was no spli beween he ruling auhoriies and he

leaders o he inernal securiy services, unlike in oher counries in he region.

Wha makes us differen is ha we have a miliary and inelligence ha says in

he backgroundwe have proessionals here, he miniser added.5


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Negative perceptions of Arab uprisings

A second acor ha ook he wind ou o he sails o major poliical and economic

reorm in Jordan was he urmoil and uncerainy winessed in oher counries.

Tis was especially rue or conservaive Eas Bank Jordanians, many o whom

argued agains major poliical reorms. Tese reorms, hey claimed, could openhe door o he desrucive urbulence ha has characerized some o he Arab

uprisings.6Tese argumens gained credence as Syria descended ino civil war and

he poliical ransiion in Egyp experienced many problems. Reorm slowed in

Jordan, explained one ormer governmen miniser:

Because o the impact o what happened in the region. Te Muslim Brotherhood

lost their support. People said maybe these people are not the model or

change, maybe they are not the success story they were claiming to be. So what

happened in Egypt played a role. Syria played a role because people said we

should not rock the boat so we dont end up like that. 7

Tis viewha Jordan does no wan o ake he reorm risks ha oher coun-

ries haveis broadly shared. Some opposiion voices argue ha he Jordanian

governmen has cynically used his as an argumen o delay even modes reorms.

One acivis rom an Islamis movemen mainained, Te regime exploied he

waerall o blood in Syria and he reugees. Eiher accep he saus quo here in

Jordan or we will end up like Syria, he regime said.8

Lack of coherent political opposition

A hird acor ha explains he limied changes inside Jordan since 2011 is he lack

o an organized opposiion ha presens a compelling alernaive o he curren

governing sysem. Te poliical opposiions weakness is parly due o he lack o

a long-erm vision ha challenges he curren order. Some Jordanians find auls

in he curren sysem, bu ew have been able o ariculae a subsiue ha a

meaningul number o Jordanians find persuasive. A curren governmen min-

iser explained he ailure o popular proess o produce any major shifs. Te

problem is jus like in Egyphe non-Islamiss had 130 differen heads, a lo ohem were jus kids propelled by emoions, he governmen miniser said. When

hey grew up, American consumerism was wha drove hemhey did no know

poliical lie.9


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Poliical pary lie in Jordan is nearly nonexisen and lacks deep roos in Jordanian

sociey. Te governmen allowed he ounding o poliical paries in 1992 ollow-

ing a 36-year ban, and here are nearly 30 regisered poliical paries oday.10Here,

he mos imporan divide is beween conservaive salwars who suppor he

radiional order in Jordan and a group o more han wo dozen reorm-minded

independen parliamenarians in a coaliion called Iniiaive who demand polii-cal reorm.11Bu none o hese paries have broad grassroos suppor, and many o

hem serve as litle more han paronage neworks. Jordans King Abdullah II has

publicly oulined he need or Jordanians o creae poliical paries based on ideas

represening a broad ideological specrum.12

Jordans lack o a vibran poliical debae is relaed in par o a srong ocus on

economic problems and he basic needs o ordinary peoplea vicious cycle in

he counrys poliical economy. For years, Jordanian poliical orces have no

presened srong alernaives or governing he counry and growing he economy.

As a consequence, people have grown increasingly cynical abou he possibiliyha poliical orces can change heir lives. One ormer member o parliamen

rom he Islamic Acion Fronhe poliical wing o he JMBexplained ha

mos ordinary people oday are disengaged rom ormal poliics, saying, People

do no wan o work wih us. Tey don wan poliics. People wan o ea and he

economic siuaion is errible.13

Endemic economic challenges

Te economic problems ha Jordan aces are exacerbaed by spillover effecs

rom Syrias civil war, which place urher srains on he counry. Many Jordanian

voices do no see long-erm susainabiliy or he curren economy. Te counry

has high levels o deb and dependency on oreign aid, and i has no mapped ou

a sraegy o creae jobs or is nex generaion. Tere is high deb, and his is

due o ailed policies. Jordan did no ake advanage o is resources and insead

became dependen on oreign aid, said one Islamis opposiion acivis.14A wide

range o inerlocuors also poined o economic mismanagemenconneced

wih poor governance and insufficien atenion o he problem o corrupion

as a long-sanding challenge in Jordan.15

Curren governmen officials and opposiion figures boh believe economic chal-

lenges will remain cenral o Jordans debae as i moves orward. As one leading

Salafi voice argued, Jordanian ciizens are living in poor economic condiions, and

hey are ired o proess and empy slogans. So hey are looking or alernaives and


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o pressure governmen in order o bring abou posiive change.16Figures serv-

ing in he curren governmen acknowledge ha he economy is a very poliical

issueindeed, ha he wo are deeply inerwined. A curren miniser said, Some

people say ha whomever akes economic decisionshis is a poliical issue.

Economic reorms mean ough decisions ha affec peoples lives. For people o

rus hese economic reorms, hey need a poliician hey can rus.17

Moving orward, many Jordanians express he view ha unless Jordan keeps all o

is key socieal and poliical acions inac, i runs he risk o experiencing he neg-

aive consequences seen in oher counries. I hink we canno ransiion wihou

every acion eeling ha i is a parner. In Jordan, we came up wih his iniia-

ive o save Jordan rom he ae o oher Arab counries, said one Islamis opposi-

ion leader.18One o he key elemens o Jordanian sociey is he Islamissand

Jordan has carved ou is own pah o deal wih is various Islamis voices.


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Jordans response

to Islamist movements

Islamiss have figured prominenly in many o he Arab counries gripped by upris-

ings since 2011. Te Muslim Broherhood in Egyp and is unisian equivalen,

Ennahda, roseand ellrom power in he urmoil o he pas hree years. In boh

counries, Salafi movemens have played a role in he narraive arc o ransiion, a

imes as a parner o he Broherhood and a oher imes as a compeior. In Syria,

Salafi jihadiss have emerged as some o he mos poen fighers on he batlefield.

Te sruggle over poliical Islam has urned biter in he Persian Gul, souring

regional relaions beween Saudi Arabia, he Unied Arab Emiraes, and Qaar.

In Jordan, poliical Islamis movemens have figured prominenly a crucial junc-

ures in he kingdoms poliical hisory. Bu heir acions have remained largely

wihin monarchy-sancioned boundaries. Tis is no acciden o hisoryhe regime

has worked hard or years o co-op Islamis orces. While he road has no always

been smooh, he Hashemie monarchy has largely managed o neuralize he

Muslim Broherhood as a hrea o he Jordanian power srucure. Unlike Egyp,

Saudi Arabia, and he Unied Arab Emiraes, Jordan does no eel he need o ban

he Muslim Broherhood. Raher, i has a imes worked o incorporae he Muslim

Broherhood ino poliical lie. By any measure, Jordans Salafi communiies are no

he larges nor he mos organized in he region, bu he more radical elemens have

been galvanized and srenghened by he wars in Iraq and Syria. Indeed, he Syrian

heaer has become he epicener or Jordans jihadiss. As hese elemens capabiliy

and organizaion grow, hey could pose a more direc challenge o Jordans sabiliy.

Jordans long-standing strategy of co-opting

the Muslim Brotherhood endures

Te Jordanian Muslim Broherhood is perhaps he larges and mos organized

orce in he counrys poliical opposiion. As such, i wasin heorywell posi-

ioned o ride he iniial wave o proess ha broke ou in 201l. When he Muslim

Broherhood came o power in Egyps 2012 parliamenary and presidenial elec-

ions, some prediced a windall or heir Jordanian counerpars. Bu he JMB was


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no able o capialize on hese evens in eiher case. Much o his ailure can be atrib-

ued o he undamenal dynamics described above, which helped inoculae Jordan

agains he uprisings ha swep he Arab world. However, an imporan par o he

answer lies in he unique hisory o and relaionship beween he monarchy and he

JMB, as well as he laters inernal divisions and vulnerabiliy o evens in he region.

Looking a he JMB as Jordans mos organized opposiion orce reflecs he

broader dynamics ha have shaped he counrys poliics and he monarchys

approach o poliical compeiors. Te mos visible compeiion can be seen in

he srained relaionship beween he elie rom he Eas Bank and hose rom he

Wes Bank, who originaed rom Palesine.

A special relationship

For decades, he JMB has culivaed a special relaionship19wih he Jordanianmonarchy. Unlike he Muslim Broherhood elsewhere in he region, he JMB has

mainained close ies o he monarchy since is regisraion as a chariy orga-

nizaion in 1946.20Te JMB has played a major bu episodic role in bolsering

he monarchys legiimacy. When Jordan batled Palesinian lefiss in he early

1970sin wha laer came o be known as Black Sepemberhe JMB remained

on he sidelines, elecing no o back he Palesinian fighers. For his, he govern-

men handsomely rewarded he group, and is chariy and educaional inrasruc-

ure flourished.21Te Islamic Cener Chariy Sociey, or ICCShe backbone o

his inrasrucure and he JMBs paronage sysemevenually acquired more

han $1.5 billion in asses by he mid-2000s.22

Te mood soured in he 1990s, however, when he JMB rejeced Jordans 1994

peace reay wih Israel and he Jordanian monarchy suppored he U.S. invasion o

Iraq.23Te governmen moved o conain he Muslim Broherhood, replacing he

board o he ICCS.24wo decades laer, he JMB sruck a defian sance once again,

emboldened by he Arab uprisings and heir brehrens rise o power in Cairo.25

Despie his uneven hisorical relaionship wih he JMB, he monarchy has

resised pressures rom he Persian Gul and elsewhere o ban he MuslimBroherhood. Te special relaionship remains inaca ac he Jordanian

auhoriies are quick o asser. As one governmen miniser explained, Te

Jordanian Muslim Broherhood has always been a parner. I is he Jordanian


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approach. We accommodaed hemwe did no give hem a drop o uel o

burn us wih. Tey hough hey had won, bu hey were wrong.26Anoher figure

close o King Abdullah II observed:

You cannot compare the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and unisia with

Jordan. In Egypt and unisia, they have been working underground and are notpart o the political abric. Tey have been imprisoned and banned. In Jordan, it

is completely different. Tey have been a part o the system and society.27

The struggle to remain relevant

For is par, he JMB finds isel capured by his relaionship wih he sae. Te

JMB sruggles o remain relevan, as is poliical winghe Islamic Acion Fron,

or IAFhas boycoted general and municipal elecions since 2007. Te move-

men has done so o proes elecoral laws, which i claims were designed o limiis elecoral represenaion, bu he boycot has ailed o pressure he governmen

o amend hese laws. Te JMB now seeks o build alliances ouside parliamen and

o quiely and careully encourage dissen. A he same ime, i is careul no o

challenge he monarchys legiimacy direcly. urning away rom he legislaure,

he group, according o one JMB leader, has eleced o work hrough he people

and work wih Jordanian sociey.28

As par o his sraegy, he JMB aims o orge common ground wih some conser-

vaive Eas Bankers and ribes on sensiive issues. As an IAF Shura Council mem-

ber explained, oday we agree wih ribes and oher secors ha wan he same

goals.29Tis leader elaboraed, saying, Te Islamic movemen is no longer alone;

we have several parners ha agree on poliical issues. We replaced he ype o

parners we work wih. We used o ally wih poliical paries, bu now our parners

are big ribes and oher figures, we have movemen in he Bedouin areas. Tey are

he bigges opporuniy [or us].30

Tis approach leaves he JMB wih modes poliical impac. Is core demands

remain reorms ha would allow i o legislae wih a degree o reedom i i were

o reurn o parliamen. I is calling or changes in he elecoral law, rallying aroundpopulis causes relaed o he economy, and proesing cus in subsidies and ris-

ing governmen deb. A leader in he IAFs Shura Council explained, Te JMB

is no in opposiion o he regime, bu raher o some o is policies. Tereore,

he Muslim Broherhood is no in consan opposiion. Tis is differen rom

poliical paries who oppose or he sake o opposiion.31


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Internal divisions and dissent

Disagreemens and divisions wihin he JMBs ranksover sraegy, leadership,

and visionhave urher weakened is posiion. A group o mosly Eas Bank

Muslim Broherhood members and oher Islamiss ormally broke off o ound he

Islamic al-Wasa Pary in 2001.32

In 2012, mosly Eas Bank Muslim Broherhoodmembers ounded he Zamzam Iniiaive o encourage poliical paricipaion and

emphasize he JMBs Jordanian characer.

Te dominance o Eas Bankers in hese spliners and disagreemens is signifi-

can. Te JMB has long sruggled o ideniy isel as a naional acor. Bu he

predominance o Jordanians o Palesinian descen and Palesinians in he JMBs

ranks has long creaed ensions wih he counrys ruling Eas Bank elie, who

no only ear an Islamis rise o power bu also a dominan poliical role or

he counrys majoriy Jordanians o Palesinian descen. Te Eas Banker-led

rumblings inside he group, as well as heir Jordan-firs rheoric, raise quesionsabou he JMBs rue Jordanian characer.

Te JMB has reaced deensively o he emergence o hese acions. Pary lead-

ers ofen dismiss al-Wasa as agens o he regime and have hreaened Zamzam

Iniiaive members wih inernal rials. Indeed, hey expelled he Zamzam

Iniiaives hree leading figures rom he JMB.33ellingly, one Shura Council

member dismissed hem as Islamis dcor.34Some in he leadership view hese

divisions as par o a sae conspiracy o weaken he JMB. According o a ormer

IAF member o parliamen, Tere are Islamis paries ha were sared by he sae

o be an alernaive o he Broherhood. [Te] governmen canno comba

religion direcly, bu i has o conain and manage religion in a way ha fis i.35

Leaders o he Zamzam Iniiaive and even al-Wasa are a pains o clariy ha

here are no core ideological differences beween heir movemens and he

JMB. Te major difference remains he Eas Bank-Wes Bank spli. One al-Wasa

leader sressed ha he key difference beween his pary and he JMB is ha [al-

Wasa] is no par o he inernaional Muslim Broherhood [i] is a par o

our naion, he Jordanian issue is cenral or us.36o underscore he Eas Banker

Jordanian naure o al-Wasa, he added, I am rom a big and powerul r ibe.37

Te leaders o hese JMB spliner groups are also specifically a odds wih he

curren JMB leadership. Speaking o he curren JMB leaderships ailures, one

Zamzam Iniiaive leader elaboraed:


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[Tey] have a ailure in understanding reality. [Tey] are unrealistic.

Te regime succeeded in showing that the Muslim Brotherhood is made up

o Palestinians. Indeed, the East Jordanians are the most important actor or

change in Jordan. [JMB] cannot lead a wide national current. Zamzam tries

to go beyond that.38

I will be difficul or he JMB o ignore hese dissiden voices. Al-Wasa benefied

grealy rom he JMBs decision o boycot he las elecion, capuring a pluraliy

o seas in he 2013 parliamenary elecions. Having ceded is poliical posiion in

he legislaure o al-Wasa, he radiional JMB leadership now finds isel pited

agains he Zamzam Iniiaive in a compeiion o reach ou o Jordans powerul

Eas Bank and ribal consiuencies. Te JMB may find isel a a disadvanage in

his cones as i sruggles agains popular percepions ha he JMB represens

Palesiniansand ha hey do so a Jordans expense.

Trouble in the neighborhood

Te JMB has been affeced by he rise and all o Islamis movemens in he region.

Te Middle Eas is in he mids o an inense sruggle or power and influence

among many counries. Richer, more inernally cohesive counries, such as Saudi

Arabia and Qaar, are conending or influence among less wealhy and inernally

divided counries, such as Jordan and Egyp. Te Muslim Broherhoods saus

remains a main poin o conenion beween counries such as Saudi Arabia, he

Unied Arab Emiraes, and Qaar. Saudi Arabia and he Unied Arab Emiraes have

effecively declared war on he group hrough suppor or he ouser o Muslim

Broherhood member and ormer Egypian Presiden Mohamed Morsi and hrough

Saudi Arabias classificaion o he Muslim Broherhood as a erroris organizaion.39

Te JMB leadership sees isel as a vicim o his perceived regional war agains

he Muslim Broherhood. As one JMB leader pu i, Tey wan o end he role

o he Muslim Broherhood in he Arab world, since [Egypian] King Farouk

[(19361952)] hey have been rying. So where are hose who ough he Muslim

Broherhood, and where is he Muslim Broherhood now?40In his regional

war, Saudi Arabia is viewed as he primary anagonis. A JMB leader explained,Te Saudis are rying o desroy he Muslim Broherhood because he Muslim

Broherhood wans liberaion [o Palesine], jihad [agains Israel], and uniy. Tey

also wan o be he sole represenaives o Islam.41


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Te July 2013 coup ha oused ormer Egypian Presiden Morsi has pu addi-

ional pressure on he JMB. One Islamis acivis argued, Afer he coup, i was

apparen ha Jordan was one o he counries ha had previous knowledge o he

coup and played a role in preparing or he coup. Tis creaed a spli beween

he regime and he Muslim Broherhood.42Te acivis wen on o explain

ha relaions beween he regime and he JMB have been heavily influenced byhese regional rends, bu boh camps have chosen no o escalae he issue. A

close observer o Islamis movemens noed ha he blow o Egyps Muslim

Broherhood paralyzed he JMB. Te Muslim Broherhood do no have a plan or

a vision. Tey do no know how o deal wih he crisis in Egyp.43

Some in he JMB are holding ou hope ha regional dynamics could sill i l in

heir avor. A JMB leader remarked, When i comes o he siuaion in Jordan

oday wha i he coup ails in Egyp? Wha i he Muslim Broherhood reurn

o rule in Egyp? Wha i revoluion in Syria succeeds? So should Jordanians jus

look a he curren sage or wha is o come?44aking a longer-erm view, hisIslamis leader ramed he recen evens in Egyp as a emporary seback, arguing,

Tese were coups agains Islamis movemens and some say Islamism is rerea-

ing. Tis is jus emporary. For a revoluion o reach is goals, i needs a ew years.

Te sree in Egyp is sill acive.45

Many JMB leaders claim ha Saudi Arabias campaign o conain he Muslim

Broherhood and he coup in Egyp will srenghen Salafi jihadiss and oher

srands o Islamic exremism. One JMB leader warned, Islam will remain. I is

eiher moderae or exremis. I you weaken he person ha represens modera-

ion, hen here will be exremism.46A similar senimen was echoed by anoher

JMB leader who said, Te U.S. led a war agains error wihou defining wha er-

rorism is. Who has an ineres in mixing Al Qaeda and Muslim Broherhood? ...

Tis will lead o more exremism in he uure.47

Mounting challenges posed by Jordans Salafists

Salafiss are increasingly prominen in he Jordanian poliical and religious land-

scape. Te civil war in Syria is a major driver o he resurgence o Salafi ideologyin Jordan, serving as a rallying cry and recruimen ool or Salafiss o all sripes.

Salafiss in Jordan range rom nonviolen apoliical quieiss who pledge loyaly o

he monarchy o some o he worlds mos deermined and violen jihadiss. Tese

communiies have enjoyed subsanial growh in Jordan since he 1970s due in


18/34


large par o he connecions ha Jordanians have made while sudying and work-

ing in Persian Gul counries.48Violen Salafi jihadiss in paricular pose a sraegic

risk o Jordans poliical and securiy uure as he movemen no only readily

adops violence, bu also canno be neuralized by incorporaion ino a poliical

sysem ha i rejecs and deems aposae.

Conservative Salafism

Tere are hree noable currens presen in Jordans Salafi landscape. Te firs is a

quieis conservaive curren carried on by he ollowers o noable 20h cenury

scholar Nasiruddin al-Albani, an Albanian naional who resetled in Jordan in 1979

and died here wo decades laer.49Al-Albanis brand o Salafism rejecs poliical

parisanship and poliical paries and affirms he auhoriy o Jordans monar-

chy.50Followers o his conservaive curren reserve heir harshes repudiaions or

Salafi jihadiss, who hey rejec as akfiriellow Muslims who are denounced asaposaes and condemn as modern-day khawrejhose who wen agains he

Caliph Ali and are condemned by Muslims as devians.51Tese Salafiss do no pose

a direc challenge o he monarchy, and he auhoriies largely leave hem alone.

Tey have undermined oher Islamis currens by declaring heir poliical aspiraions

o be corrup, including hose o he JMB.

Reformist Salafism

Te second curren is he so-called reormis Salafism, which has more defined

poliical aspiraions and a ocus on changing sociey and laws o abide by Islamic

Sharia. Te group emphasizes chariy work and is currenly enjoying a period o

revival, largely due o he crisis in Syria. Te movemen, which is he driving orce

behind Jordans al-Kiab wal-Sunnah Associaion chariy, has been flooded wih

millions o dollarsmosly rom he Persian Gulin recen years o reinvigorae

is educaional and chariy inrasrucure.52I now operaes eigh field offices ha

reach ens o housands o amilies in need.53Al-Kiab wal-Sunnah was ounded in

1993 by a group o Salafiss who came o rejec conservaive Salafism over is ail-

ure o condemn American inervenion in he firs Gul War.54

Al-Kiab wal-Sun-nah included many Salafi jihadiss early on, bu relaions soured beween he wo

afer he 9/11 erroris atacks, and he jihadiss were expelled rom he group.55


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Te reormis Salafiss emphasis on chariy work is ofen misaken or poliical

quieism. As one reormis Salafi leader clarified:

We care about all things, including politics. When we say we do not work in

politics, this does not mean leaving politics alone. When the right environment

comes, we will participate i we see there is a benefit in doing so. Te securityclampdown prohibits us.56

Salafi reormiss disagree wih conservaive Salafiss over he laters loyaly o

Jordans king. One leader o al-Kiab wal-Sunnah explained, Te sae likes his

kind [conservaive Salafiss], because hey have no poliical agenda or reorm role

nor do hey look a wha is going on in he sree and so hey have he reedom

o do wha hey wan.57He urher explained ha he relaionship beween he

wo currens is ense and unlikely o be repaired. Teir way has allowed or cor-

rupion. Tey live in ivory owers.58

Reormis Salafiss consider heir movemen o be an alernaive o he JMB. A

reormis Salafi sheik observed, People no longer rus he Muslim Broherhood.

Te Muslim Broherhood dragged people ino mazes and disappoined peo-

ple. So people look or alernaivessomehing ha can balance regional issues

wih local issues and a balanced approach o reorms. Ten people will flock o

us. However, he sheik noed ha he movemen is sill aking shape and ha i

has in ac begun o quiely consider organizing poliically, saying, Salafiss do

no ye have a clear program. I Salafiss ake care o heir message, hen hou-

sands will flock o hem.59

Salafi jihadists

Te hird curren is a violen srand o Salafi jihadism. For years, Jordan has

served as he worlds reservoir o jihadi ideology.60Some o he mos promi-

nen ideologues hail rom Jordan, mos noably Sheikh Abu Muhammad al-

Maqdisi, who has been described as he mos influenial living Jihadi Teoris.61

Te jihadiss are a minoriy among Jordans Salafi communiy. Te Palesinian

characer o heir early leadership hampered heir abiliy o recrui rom a widersegmen o Jordanians.62Indeed, rallying around he Palesinian effec has

long been a primarily moivaional mechanism or jihadiss.63o expand heir

influence, leaders o Jordans jihadi movemen sared rying o recrui more Eas

Bankers a he urn o he 21s cenury.64


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Tis effor has been successul. Among he mos noable leaders o he Jordanian

Salafi jihadi movemen oday is Mohamed al-Shalabi, widely known as Abu

Sayya. Abu Sayya and Abu Musab al-Zarqawiwho was he leader o Al Qaeda

in Iraq unil his deah in 2006were recruied in par because o heir Eas Bank

ribal origins.65oday, Abu Sayya boass o recruiing housands o Jordanian

youh rom Eas Bank communiies and he ribes o his homeown, Maan. TeseSalafi jihadiss, drawn rom he mos radiional quarers o Jordanian sociey, no

only oppose he monarchy bu also consider i o be an aposae enemy.

Unlike heir reormis counerpars, he Salafi jihadiss in Jordan lack ormal orga-

nizaion and a robus nework o chariy and paronage. Insead, he jihadi curren

has been riding on a wave o populariy ueled by he conflics in neighboring Iraq

and Syria. Abu Sayya explained ha he social presence o Salafiss is in good

shape afer people saw how we helped he oppressed [Syrians]. 66Te physical

sacrifices o he Jordanian Salafi jihadiss allow hem o accrue popular sympahy

wihou having o acually help people.

Some inside he movemen have also recognized he misakes o wha hey

describe as he Iraqi experience67ha saw Jordanian al-Zarqawi insigae a brual

secarian war and alienae many Muslims. Tey express concerns ha somehing

similar is underway in Syria. Te jihadi message has differen leaders or differen

consumers and is well spread across Jordan. On one end, men such as Abu Sayya

can atrac ribal youh and engage in simple, populis rheoric o encourage hem

o figh. On he oher end, men such as Dr. Eyad al-Qunaibi win suppor rom he

educaed class. Al-Qunaibi is a sof-spoken, U.S.-educaed inellecual who is well

versed in English and has more han 100,000 ollowers on witer.68He was cied

as a marjaan inspiring religious reerence69by Dr. Sami al-Uraydi, he senior

cleric o al-Nusra Fron, Al Qaedas affiliae in Syria. 70Al-Uraydi is also a Jordanian.

For Salafi jihadi leaders such as Abu Sayya, he experience o he Muslim

Broherhood in Jordan underscores he uiliy o poliical paricipaion as a

means o achieve heir goal o esablish Islamic law. Abu Sayya opined:

Te [JMB] didnt get close to the red lines like the head o the state. When we

would sit down and talk with them, we would ask how are you different omthe others? Tey would say, We have a policy o gradualism, our goal is the

head o the regime, but we have to start om the base and work up. But in

reality nothing changed.71


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Te Jordanian governmen has iniiaed programs in he pas o conain jihadis

ideology, bu is effors will likely be overshadowed by curren regional dynamics

ha allow he unneling o unds rom he Persian Gul hrough Jordan o exrem-

is groups in Syria such as al-Nusra Fron and he Islamic Sae o Iraq and he

Levan, or ISIL.72Jordanian securiy officials say ha hese Salafi jihadi groups are

moniored73

and merely number in he ew hundreds. However, as he conflicdrags on in Syriaand as recruiers such as Abu Sayya coninue o unnel young

men across he borderhe grip ha Jordans securiy services claim o have is

coming increasingly under quesion, and some worry abou he impac ha hose

who reurn rom Syrias civil war may have on Jordans sabiliy.

Potential long-term challenge from Salafists to Jordan

For now, Jordans Salafi jihadiss are ocused on oher conflics. Tis preoccupa-

ion elsewhere, as well as heir rejecion o poliics, may give he decepive impres-sion ha jihadiss are no concerned wih Jordan. Tis may, in par, be due o he

relaive olerance and degree o reedom he Jordanian governmen affords jihadi

ideology and fighers ocused abroad.74However, as a curren Jordanian govern-

men miniser acknowledged, Te Salafi orces are no visible on he poliical

scene. I is working on he ground because o povery here. I is a major dorman

orce in Jordanhe danger is ha i is no visible, like a poliical iceberg.75

Salafi jihadiss make no effor o hide ha i and when hey secure vicories in

Iraq and Syria, hey will urn heir atenion o Jordan. Tis ac makes he jihadi

communiy a credible uure hrea o Jordanian sabiliy as hundreds o embold-

ened Jordanian fighers reurn home rom he Syrian batlefield. Tus ar, hey

have enjoyed a wide degree o reedom and movemen: Te black banners o Al

Qaeda fly reely in some ciies, especially in ribal Maan, and securiy orces seem

incapable oor unwilling oconron he increased public profile o he Salafi

jihadiss. Abu Sayya said:

oday, we consider that our most important duty [repeated twice] is to remove

these regimes. I talked many times beore that the regime that rules in Jordan

is an apostate [regime] that we must remove. But this is tied with ability andcapability. When we become capable, this regime will not be lef alone.

Tey [intelligence services] would interrogate us and we would tell them this.

Tey know what we think.76


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Alhough atenion mus be paid o Jordanian fighers reurning rom Syria, he

ambiions o Salafi jihadiss in Syria remain a concern.

For Abu Sayya, he nex sep would be o esablish an Islamic sae in Syria ha

would serve as a new base or Islamiss.77Tey could hen use his base as a oun-

daion o ocus heir atenion on Jordan and heir highes enemy, Israel.78

AbuSayya warned, I he youh ake over Syria hey will no leave Palesine or i is

he highes goal and he Holy Land.79


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Recommendations

for U.S. policy in Jordan

Jordan remains one o Americas closes and mos reliableindeed, mos

rusedparners in he Middle Eas a a ime o grea regional uncerainy and

change. op officials in Jordans governmen recognize he high level o suppor

and coordinaion ha he Unied Saes provides. As one official in he royal pal-

ace acknowledged, We are very comored by U.S. supporWashingon under-

sands 100 percen he impac he crises have had on Jordan. 80Jordan enjoys

broad suppor in he execuive branch and srong biparisan suppor in Congress,

and he Obama adminisraion has worked wih Jordan o mee he range o hechallenges i aces as a resul o regional and inernal pressures.

Moving orward, U.S. policy needs o ocus on hree areas: he immediae securiy

hreas posed by he crisis in Syria, he longer-erm challenges posed by Islamis

orces operaing inside Jordan, and he longer-erm opporuniies or Jordans

poliical and economic reorm. Te Unied Saes has done a good job on he firs

o hese ocus areas, bu he consanly shifing siuaion inside Syria requires an

abiliy o adjus o new acors. Te wo oher ocus areas are very much iner-

linked, and he Unied Saes needs o work wih a wider range o Jordanian lead-

ers o help he counry sand on is own and adap o changes.

Continued support to Jordan in response to the Syria conflict

Jordanian officials give U.S. policy on Syria mixed reviews. Tey are criical o wha

hey see as relucance on he par o he Obama adminisraion o ac decisively

regarding he civil war in Syria. One miniser serving in Jordans governmen said,

Te impression in Jordan is ha Americans are very hesian. Te policy o he

U.S. has o be announced clear and undersandable.81

Bu Jordanian officials remainreicen when i comes o deeper engagemen in he orm o over assisance o he

Syrian opposiion rom Jordanian erriory. Insead, hey are ocusing on inoculaing

Jordan rom he sizable spillover o he Syrian conflic. Te Unied Saes already

provides significan assisance o help Jordan shoulder his burden. Some o he key

areas in which Jordan will require addiional long-erm suppor include:


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Leveraging additional humanitarian and infrastructure assistance.Tere are

more han 600,000 Syrian reugees in Jordana number some expec o grow

o beween 800,000 o 1 million by he end o his year.82Syrian reugees already

consiue 10 percen o Jordans populaion.83Te opening o a new camp in

Azraqwhich can hold up o 130,000 addiional reugeesis an imporan

sep.84

Bu 80 percen o he Syrian reugees in Jordan live ouside he campsin hos communiies.85Tese reugees are axing Jordans educaion and healh

services, as well as is elecriciy, ransporaion, and waer neworks. Jordan

recenly requesed an addiional $4.3 billion over he nex hree years o manage

he spillover o he Syrian crisis.86

Te Unied Saes is he larges donor o humaniarian assisance or Syria,

having provided more han $1.7 billion in aid o dae.87O his, he Unied

Saes has provided more han $268 million o mee he immediae humaniar-

ian needs o Syrian reugees in Jordan.88Te Unied Saes should leverage his

assisance o moivae he oil-rich counries o he Persian Gul o increase heirdirec humaniarian assisance o Syrian reugees in Jordan. More imporanly,

he Unied Saes should encourage Persian Gul saes o bolser budge sup-

por o he Jordanian governmen in order o help miigae he long-erm srain

he Syrian crisis has imposed on he kingdoms inrasrucure and social services.

Increasing border control.Te Jordanian miliary is sreched hin as i deends

he wide srech o deser along he Syrian border. A governmen miniser ou-

lined he elemens o he problem, saying:

Te Jordanian armed orces are now doing the job o both the Jordanians

and Syrians. Te Syrians are not doing their job. Factions in Syria are

engaged in human trafficking, weapons, and drugs smuggling, and it is

draining Jordans budget. Te biggest drain on our budget is energy spend-

ingthe second is keeping Jordan secure and sae.89

o help mee Jordan mee his challenge, he Unied Saes should coninue

is effors o seadily increase is assisance o he kingdoms armed orces and

securiy services o help ease he burden on roops deployed along he border.

Tis assisance could include addiional inelligence, surveillance, and recon-naissance capabiliies.


25/34


Increased intelligence cooperation on the evolving nature

of Islamist ideologies to counter violent extremism

For decades, he Unied Saes and Jordan have worked closely ogeher on

securiy and inelligence operaions inside he counry, across he Middle Eas,

and even in places as ar flung as Aghanisan.90

Te naure o his cooperaion haslargely ocused on deending boh counries agains immediae securiy hreas

and hwaring erroris plos.

Te rapidly evolving siuaion in Syria and is spillover effecs in Jordan and oher

neighboring counries presen anoher long-erm challenge or he Unied Saes

and Jordan. Tese ideologies are inspiring a new generaion o youh o engage in

conflics in ways ha could ulimaely undermine securiy and poliical sabiliy in

he Middle Eas. Jihadi neworks have successully exploied he Syrian civil war,

and some o he mos influenial opinion leaders in his movemen are based in

Jordan. o dae, he Unied Saes and Jordan have been reacive o he emergingsecuriy hreas rom Islamis erroris neworks. Such reacions are necessary bu

insufficien o address he issue. wo seps should be aken:

Conduct academic and intelligence analyses on the evolving nature of Islamist

political ideology.Te Unied Saes and Jordan should work ogeher o or-mulae an analyical effor ha closely racks he evoluion o ideas and ideol-

ogy among various Islamis groups. Te wo counries have done a srong job

o counering erroris plos and heading off immediae hreas, and hey could

exend his join effor o include long-erm analysis ha ocuses on he evolving

naure o he Islamis ideological debaeparicularly in ligh o he conflics in

Syria and Iraq.

Enhance efforts to counter violent extremism.In many counries aroundhe world, including Jordan, he U.S. Deparmen o Sae has worked wih

parner counries o implemen programs aimed a counering violen exrem-

ism as par o he Unied Saes sraegic approach o counererrorism. Tese

effors include providing alernaives or individuals who are mos a-risk

o being radicalized, messaging ha couners violen exremis narraives,

and increasing parners capaciy o underake hese effors. Te $5 billionCounererrorism Parnerships Fund proposed by Presiden Obama in May

i approved by Congressshould dedicae more resources o addressing he

evolving naure o Islamis ideologies.


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Support for inclusive political and economic reform

Te Unied Saes mus coninue o urge Jordans governmen o implemen a prag-

maic and realisicbu noneheless seriousprogram or poliical and economic

reorm. Such a reorm program is essenial o help Jordan manage he demographic,

social, and economic pressures ha could undermine is long-erm sabiliy.

Over he pas decade, he Unied Saes has made many saemens abou he

need or poliical reorm in he region. Bu opposiion orces in parner coun-

ries, including Jordan, have exploied he gap beween hese saemens and he

acual policy. One leading Islamis opposiion voice in Amman underscored ha

Washingons acions did no keep pace wih is saed commimen o democracy:

I looked a lot at the U.S. policy o democratization. Tis was based on a noble

reading; they looked at the act that most o those who hit the towers [on

9/11] were Saudis. And so they came to the conclusion that repressive societ-ies is where terrorism spreads. But America didnt continue on this track. It

changed in 2005 [the Muslim Brotherhoods parliament victory in Egypt] and

2006 [with Hamas].91

Te Unied Saes can help Jordan avoid he insabiliy experienced in places such

as Egyp and Syria by closing his gap and helping reorm he poliical and eco-

nomic sysems, hus making i more inclusive in is governance and helping he

counry oser a more open economy ha creaes jobs. Some o he seps ha he

Unied Saes and Jordan can ake in his area include:

Support political party development and other political reform initiatives.Jordans poliical sysem lacks viable poliical ideologies organized ino poliical

paries. Some o he radiional poliical pary developmen ools have no had a

major impac, and par o he challenge is he lack o coheren poliical hinking

regarding concree policy proposals o improve he lives o ordinary Jordanians.

Nongovernmenal organizaions in he Unied Saes and Jordan should con-

inue heir effors o suppor curren members o Jordans parliamen, as well

as ohers no currenly in poliics, o develop coheren poliical pary plaorms

ha address he problems ordinary Jordanians are experiencing.

In addiion o poliical pary developmen, Jordan should loosen resricions

on press reedom and conclude he years-long debae on elecoral law reorm

by implemening measures ha would encourage he developmen o coheren

poliical paries. Tese poliical paries need a wide reach based on ideas raher

han on ribes or paricular secors o sociey.


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Work with Jordan to outline a long-term effort for economic reform that

encourages job growth.Jordans effors o implemen an InernaionalMoneary Fund program have aken seps o deal wih macroeconomic imbal-

ances, bu he overall effor does no provide much room or fiscal flexibiliy.

Te Unied Saes should work wih Jordanand oher counries ha provide

suppor o Jordano encourage invesmen in projecs ha deal wih srainson Jordans inrasrucure and help creae jobs. Tis long-erm plan means ha

Jordan will require coninued and predicable inernaional assisance.

o his end, he Obama adminisraion should work o ulfill is pledge o renew

he five-year aid package and he accompanying memorandum o undersand-

ing reached beween he Unied Saes and Jordan in 2008.92Te agreemen

provided or a oal o $660 million in oreign assisance and is due o expire

laer his year.93Te new memorandum o undersanding beween he Unied

Saes and Jordan should link condiions or assisance o economic reorms

wihin Jordan o grow he economy and creae jobs. Te nex phase o U.S. aido Jordan should prioriize decreasing Jordans overall dependence on ouside

assisance and help Jordan creae a pah oward sel-susainabiliy.

Te privae secors o boh Jordan and he Unied Saes have an imporan role

o play in helping Jordan creae a new economic model ha sands on is own.


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Conclusion

Jordan remains a key U.S. parner and cornersone o sabiliy in he Middle Eas.

Te Hashemie Kingdom o Jordan has weahered repeaed sorms in recen

years, rom he wars in he bordering counries o Iraq and Syria o he deepen-

ing regional urbulence o he Arab uprisings. Tese exernal orces have hrea-

ened Jordans sabiliy hrough massive reugee flows, an increasing drain on he

economy, and he rise o new, virulen srains o Islamis exremism. Trough i all,

Jordan has remained resilien. Uniy among is ruling elies, negaive percepions

o evens in he region, and he lack o a coheren opposiion o he monarchyhave made he counry resisan o change. Bu he cracks in he kingdoms armor

are becoming more apparen.

Te Unied Saes has already done much o suppor Jordan, and Presiden

Obama has underscored U.S. resolve o help Jordan remain an anchor o sabiliy.

o his end, he Unied Saes should use is sizable package o humaniarian aid

o leverage addiional assisance rom he Persian Gul o help Jordan deal wih is

Syrian reugee populaion and he srain i is producing on Jordans inrasrucure

and economy. I should also make available high-end inelligence and surveil-

lances capabiliies o help he Jordanian miliary beter manage is border.

Over he longer erm, he Unied Saes and Jordan should deepen heir shared

analyical effor o undersand he evoluion o Islamis ideology and o beter man-

age he violen exremism likely o emerge. Perhaps mos imporanly, he Unied

Saes should coninue is suppor or meaningul long-erm poliical and economic

reorm. Only hrough more inclusive poliics and an economy weaned o aid

dependence can Jordan build up he resilience required o manage uure exernal

shocks and he inernal socioeconomic pressures he kingdom will ineviably ace.

Bu change does no come easily o Jordan. Te acors ha have insulaed he

kingdom agains he umul gripping he region may well hinder effors a more

measured reorms. Te exreme dependency on exernal sources o suppor o


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manage shor-erm crises have ofen closed off pahways o he poliical and

economic reorms necessary or Jordan o achieve long-erm susainable securiy.

As one ormer governmen miniser said, Te basic problem is wha kind o

Jordan do we wan? Tere are now wo answers. Te King someimes gives boh

answers.94I Jordan is o remain a bulwark o regional sabiliy, i mus give a

clearer answer o his quesion.


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About the authors

Brian Katulisis a Senior Fellow a he Cener or American Progress, where his

work ocuses on U.S. naional securiy policy in he Middle Eas and Souh Asia.

Kaulis has served as a consulan o numerous U.S. governmen agencies, privae

corporaions, and nongovernmenal organizaions on projecs in more hanwo dozen counries, including Iraq, Pakisan, Aghanisan, Yemen, Egyp, and

Colombia. From 1995 o 1998, he lived and worked in he Wes Bank, he Gaza

Srip, and Egyp or he Naional Democraic Insiue or Inernaional Affairs.

Hardin Langis a Senior Fellow a he Cener or American Progress, where he

ocuses on U.S. naional securiy and mulilaeral affairs, Middle Eas policy, and

he role o Islamiss in he region. He comes o CAP wih 18 years o experience

in peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and sabilizaion, including a 12-year career wih

he Unied Naions. Mos recenly, Lang was a senior ellow in he inernaional

securiy program a he Cener or Sraegic and Inernaional Sudies.

Mokhtar Awadis a Research Associae wih he Naional Securiy and

Inernaional Policy eam a he Cener or American Progress. His work ocuses

on Islamis groups, Middle Easern poliics, and U.S. oreign policy oward he

region. Prior o joining CAP, he was a junior ellow in he Middle Eas Program

a he Carnegie Endowmen or Inernaional Peace. He has been published in

Foreign Policyand Te Washington Post.

Acknowledgements

Te auhors would like o hank CAP Policy Analyss Ken Soer and Peer Juul or

heir edis o his paper.


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Endnotes

1 Humeyra Pamuk, Number of Syrian refugees inTurkey exceeds 600,000: Turkish official, Reuters,October 21, 2013, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/21/us-syria-crisis-turkey-refugees-idUSBRE99K04O20131021.

2 David Nakamura , Obama lays out new approach toforeign policy in second term, The Washington Post,May 28, 2014, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-wants-to-set-up-new-5-billion-counterterrorism-fund/2014/05/28/c5ee3362-e662-11e3-a86b-362fd5443d19_story.html.

3 Courtney Freer and Shadi Hamid,How Stable IsJordan? King Abdullahs Half-Hearted Reforms and theChallenge of the Arab Spring (Doha, Qatar: BrookingsDoha Center, 2011), available at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/jor-dan%20hamid%20freer/10_jordan_hamid_freer.pdf.

4 Current Jordanian government minister, interview withauthors, Amman, Jordan, March 6, 2014.

5 Ibid.

6 Jeffrey Goldberg, The Modern King in the Arab Spring,The Atlantic, March 18, 2013, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/04/monarch-in-the-middle/309270/?single_page=true.

7 Former Jordanian government minister, interview withauthors, Amman, Jordan, March 5, 2014.

8 Islamist activist, interview with authors, Amman,Jordan, March 8, 2014.


10 Ibtissam al-Attiyat, Musa Shteiwi, and Suleiman Sweiss,Building Democracy in Jordan: Womens PoliticalParticipation, Political Party Life, and Democratic Elec-tions (Stockholm, Sweden: International Institute forDemocracy and Electoral Assistance, 2005), available at

http://www.idea.int/publications/dem_jordan/upload/Jordan_country_report_English.pdf.

11 Khaled Neimat, Senators mull joining MP-led reforminitiative Hamarneh, The Jordan Times,December10, 2013, available at http://jordantimes.com/senators-mull-joining-mp-led-reform-initiative----hamarneh.

12 Goldberg, The Modern King in the Arab Spring.

13 Former Islamic Action Front member of parliament,interview with authors, Zarqa, Jordan, March 10, 2014.

14 Islamist activist, interview with authors.


16 Jordanian Salafi leader, interview with authors, Amman,

Jordan, March 11, 2014.


18 Zamzam Initiative leader, interview with authors, Am-man, Jordan, March 10, 2014.

19 Muhammad Abu Rumman and Hassan Abu Hanieh,The Islamic Solution in Jordan: Islamists, the State,and the Ventures of Democracy and Security (Amman,Jordan: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Jordan & Iraq, 2013),p. 43, available athttp://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/amman/10360.pdf.

20 Ibid.

21 Ibid.

22 Mohammad al-Fodeilat, How Jordans Islamists Cameto Dominate Society: An Evolution, Al-Monitor, Sep-tember 10, 2012, available athttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/culture/2012/09/jordan-muslim-brother-hood-islamists-salafists-sufis.html#.

23 Juan Jose Escobar Stemmann, The Crossroads of Mus-lim Brothers in Jordan, Global Research in I nternationalAffairs Center, March 4, 2010, available at http://www.gloria-center.org/2010/03/escobar-2010-03-04/.

24 Nathan J. Brown, Jordan and Its Islamic Movement: TheLimits of Inclusion? (Washington: Carnegie Endow-ment for International Peace, 2006), available at http://

carnegieendowment.org/files/cp_74_brown_final.pdf.

25 David Schenker, Down and Out in Amman: The Riseand Fall of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, ForeignAffairs, October 3, 2013, available at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139982/david-schenker/down-and-out-in-amman.


27 Royal Hashemite Court representative, interview withauthors, Amman, Jordan, March 10, 2014.

28 Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood leader, interview withauthors, Amman, Jordan, March 9, 2014.

29 Former Islamic Action Front member of parliament,interview with authors.

30 Ibid.

31 Islamic Action Front Shura Council member, interviewwith authors, Amman, Jordan, March 10, 2014.

32 Asharq al-Awsat, History of the Jordanian MuslimBrotherhood Part Two, December 30, 2005, available athttp://www.aawsat.net/2005/12/article55268387.

33 Taylor Luck, Muslim Brotherhood expels three overZamzam init iative,The Jordan Times, April 21, 2014,available at http://jordantimes.com/muslim-brother-hood-expels-three-over-zamzam-initiative.


35 Ibid.

36 Al-Wasat Party leader, interview with authors, Amman,Jordan, March 11, 2014.

37 Ibid.

38 Zamzam Initiative leader, interview with authors, Am-man, Jordan, March 10, 2014.
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32/34


39 Rania El Gamal Saudi Arabia designates Muslim Broth-erhood terrorist group, Reuters, March 7, 2014, avail-able at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-saudi-security-idUSBREA260SM20140307.

40 Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood leader, interview withauthors.


42 Islamist activist, interview with authors.

43 Jordanian academic, interview with authors, Amman,Jordan, March 8, 2014.


45 Ibid.

46 Member of the Shura Council of the Islamic ActionFront, interview with authors.


48 Quintan Wiktorowicz, The Salafi Movement in Jordan,International Journal of Middle East Studies 32 (2) (2000):219240.

49 Rumman and Hanieh, The Islamic Solution in Jordan.

50 Ibid., p. 19.

51 Ibid., p. 312.

52 Jordanian Salafi leader, interview with authors, Amman,Jordan, March 11, 2014.

53 Sarah Hasselbarth, Islamic Charities in the Syrian Con-text in Jordan and Lebanon (Beirut, Lebanon: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2014), available athttp://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/beirut/10620.pdf.

54 Jordanian Salafi leader, interview with authors, Amman,Jordan, March 11, 2014.

55 Ibid.

56 Ibid.

57 Ibid.

58 Ibid.

59 Ibid.

60 Jordanian political analyst, interview with authors, Am-man, Jordan, March 10, 2014.

61 William McCants, Militant Ideology Atlas (WestPoint, NY: Combating Terrorism Center, 2006), avail-able at https://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/up-loads/2012/04/Atlas-ExecutiveReport.pdf.

62 Jordanian political analyst, interview with authors, Am-man, Jordan, March 10, 2014.

63 Thomas Hegghammer and Joas Wagemakers, ThePalestine Effect: The Role of Palestinians in the Trans-national Jihad Movement, International Journal for theStudy of Modern Islam53-3-4 (2013): 281314.

64 Jordanian political analyst, interview with authors.

65 Ibid.

66 Abu Sayyaf, interview with authors, Amman, Jordan,March 7, 2014.

67 Ibid.

68 @EYADQUNAIBI, Twitter, available at https://twitter.com/EYADQUNAIBI(last accessed June 2014).

69 Minbar Alansar, The White Lighthouse, our creed anddoctrine, an interview with Dr. Sami al-Uraydi, October21, 2013, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVR1kwEmFh4.

70 The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism InformationCenter, Sheik Sami al-Uraydi: Portrait of a Jordaniancleric who serves as a senior religious authority for theAl-Nusra Front, Al-Qaedas Syrian branch, available athttp://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/20623(lastaccessed June 2014).

71 Abu Sayyaf, interview with authors.

72 Rana al-Sabbagh, Jordan faces growing Salafist-jihadistthreat, Al-Monitor, February 4, 2014, available at http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/02/jordan-faces-salafist-jihadist-threat.html#.





77 Ibid.



80 Royal Hashemite Court representative, interview withauthors.


82 U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, 2014 Syria

Regional Response Plan: Jordan (2014), available athttp://www.unhcr.org/syriarrp6/docs/syria-rrp6-jordan-response-plan.pdf.

83 Jeremy M. Sharp, Jordan: Background and U.S. Rela-tions (Washington: Congressional Research Service,2014).

84 Rana. F Sweis, New Refugee Camp in Jordan Triesto Create a Community for Syrians, The New YorkTimes, May 30, 2014, available athttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/middleeast/new-refugee-camp-in-jordan-absorbs-flood-from-syria.html?_r=0.

85 Ibid.

86 Elizabeth Dickinson, To host ever more refugees,Jordan wants extra cash no string s attached, TheChristian Science Monitor, May 28, 2014, available at

www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0528/To-host-ever-more-refugees-Jordan-wants-extra-cash-no-strings-attached.

87 U.S. Agency for I nternational Development, Syria,available at http://www.usaid.gov/crisis/syria (last ac-cessed June 2014).
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-saudi-security-idUSBREA260SM20140307http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-saudi-security-idUSBREA260SM20140307http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/beirut/10620.pdfhttp://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/beirut/10620.pdfhttps://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Atlas-ExecutiveReport.pdfhttps://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Atlas-ExecutiveReport.pdfhttps://twitter.com/EYADQUNAIBIhttps://twitter.com/EYADQUNAIBIhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVR1kwEmFh4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVR1kwEmFh4http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/20623http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/02/jordan-faces-salafist-jihadist-threat.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/02/jordan-faces-salafist-jihadist-threat.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/02/jordan-faces-salafist-jihadist-threat.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/syriarrp6/docs/syria-rrp6-jordan-response-plan.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/syriarrp6/docs/syria-rrp6-jordan-response-plan.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/middleeast/new-refugee-camp-in-jordan-absorbs-flood-from-syria.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/middleeast/new-refugee-camp-in-jordan-absorbs-flood-from-syria.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/middleeast/new-refugee-camp-in-jordan-absorbs-flood-from-syria.html?_r=0http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0528/To-host-ever-more-refugees-Jordan-wants-extra-cash-no-strings-attachedhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0528/To-host-ever-more-refugees-Jordan-wants-extra-cash-no-strings-attachedhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0528/To-host-ever-more-refugees-Jordan-wants-extra-cash-no-strings-attachedhttp://www.usaid.gov/crisis/syriahttp://www.usaid.gov/crisis/syriahttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0528/To-host-ever-more-refugees-Jordan-wants-extra-cash-no-strings-attachedhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0528/To-host-ever-more-refugees-Jordan-wants-extra-cash-no-strings-attachedhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0528/To-host-ever-more-refugees-Jordan-wants-extra-cash-no-strings-attachedhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/middleeast/new-refugee-camp-in-jordan-absorbs-flood-from-syria.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/middleeast/new-refugee-camp-in-jordan-absorbs-flood-from-syria.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/middleeast/new-refugee-camp-in-jordan-absorbs-flood-from-syria.html?_r=0http://www.unhcr.org/syriarrp6/docs/syria-rrp6-jordan-response-plan.pdfhttp://www.unhcr.org/syriarrp6/docs/syria-rrp6-jordan-response-plan.pdfhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/02/jordan-faces-salafist-jihadist-threat.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/02/jordan-faces-salafist-jihadist-threat.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2014/02/jordan-faces-salafist-jihadist-threat.htmlhttp://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/20623https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVR1kwEmFh4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVR1kwEmFh4https://twitter.com/EYADQUNAIBIhttps://twitter.com/EYADQUNAIBIhttps://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Atlas-ExecutiveReport.pdfhttps://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Atlas-ExecutiveReport.pdfhttp://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/beirut/10620.pdfhttp://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/beirut/10620.pdfhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-saudi-security-idUSBREA260SM20140307http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-saudi-security-idUSBREA260SM20140307


33/34


88 Sharp, Jordan: Background and U.S. Relations.


90 Tom A. Peter, CIA killings in Afghanistan spotlightJordan as key US intelligence partner, The ChristianScience Monitor, January 6, 2010, available at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partner


92 Sarah Wheaton and Mark Landler, Obama PromisesNew Aid to Jordan in Refugee Crisis, The New YorkTimes, February 14, 2014, available athttp://www.ny-times.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.html; Sharp, Jordan: Background and U.S. Relations.

93 Ibid.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partnerhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partnerhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partnerhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partnerhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/15/us/politics/syria-is-expected-to-be-main-topic-as-obama-meets-with-king-of-jordan.htmlhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partnerhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partnerhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partnerhttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0106/CIA-killings-in-Afghanistan-spotlight-Jordan-as-key-US-intelligence-partner


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