jonathan plucker october 8, 2014 watg. the 21 st century excellence in the u.s. and other countries...
TRANSCRIPT
Closing WisconsinExcellence Gaps
Jonathan PluckerOctober 8, 2014WATG
OverviewThe 21st CenturyExcellence in the U.S. and Other CountriesExcellence Gaps
Talent on the Sidelines
21st Century SkillsPovertyImplications and InterventionsQ&A
THE 21ST CENTURY
Increasing globalization… although not close to it yet
Increasing levels and sophistication of technology… for good and evil
Return to two major superpowersDeveloping countries nearing end of that processProbably more economic equality among countries, less within countries.Immigration/migration patterns are changing.
The 21st Century …
… is clearly proving to be a brave new world where skills and talents that previously helped us achieve success need to be rethought.
Who Gets U.S. Patents?
20132010
20072004
20011998
19951992
19891986
19831980
19771974
19711968
19650
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Utility Patent Grants, U.S. Origin Utility Patent Grants, Foreign Origin
It’s All About the Pipeline
“The success of the United States in the 21st century – its wealth and welfare – will depend on the ideas and skills of its population. These have always been the Nation’s most important assets.” (p. v)
“Despite our historical record of achievement, the United States now lags behind other nations in STEM education at the elementary and secondary levels. … On the [NAEP], less than one-third of U.S. eighth graders show proficiency in mathematics and science.” (p. v)
President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), 2010, Prepare and Inspire: K-12 Education in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) for America’s Future
2009 PISA Results, Overall RanksReading Mathematics Science
Shanghai – 1 Shanghai – 1 Shanghai – 1
South Korea – 2 Singapore – 2 Finland – 2
Finland – 3 South Korea – 4 Singapore – 4
Singapore - 5 Taiwan – 5 Japan – 5
Canada – 6 Finland – 6 South Korea – 6
Japan – 8 Japan – 9 Canada – 8
US – 17 Canada – 10 Taiwan – 12
Germany – 20 Germany – 16 Germany – 13
France – 22 France – 22 UK – 16
Taiwan – 23 UK – 28 US – 23UK – 25 US – 31 France - 27
2012 PISA Results, Overall RanksNo statistically significant differences from 2009.U.S. % high achieving students lower than OECD average in math, roughly similar in science and reading.Of participating states, MA and CT students performed well, FL students did not.
Recent NASA ReportHistorical studies of civilizationsCivilizations marked by wealth inequality, overconsumption, and rapid population growth eventually collapsed.“Much like in the movies, though, NASA has a way to save the day - by reducing consumption, redistributing resources and slowing population growth. No problem then.”
Ozymandias.com
EXCELLENCE IN THE U.S. AND OTHER COUNTRIES
Percent of Advanced Scores (625+) on TIMSS Math Assessments
Percent of Advanced Scores (625+) on TIMSS Science Assessments
Percent of Advanced Scores (625+) on TIMSS Grade 4 Reading Assessment
Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 4 Math
Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 8 Math
Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 4 Reading
Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 8 Reading
But then where does our talent come from?
Why Excellence Gaps?Advocacy efforts traditionally require enormous amounts of time to maintain the status quo, let alone gain ground.We perceived a need to change the traditional message: These kids have special needs.That message works with only a small proportion of policymakers and educational leaders.
Minimum Competency vs. Excellence Gaps by State
Blue: Minimum competency gapMaroon: Excellence gap
Talent on theSidelines Results
http://cepa.uconn.edu/mindthegap
Minimum Achievementand Excellence Gaps
Math Reading Grade 4 Grade 8 Grade 12 Grade 4 Grade 8 Grade 12
1996 2.2 3.7 2.0 1998 7.1 2.6 5.6 2000 2.5 4.7 2.4 6.9 2002 7.1 2.8 4.5 2003 3.9 5.4 7.7 3.2 2005 5.0 6.0 2.2 7.5 3.0 4.6 2007 5.6 7.0 7.9 2.8 2009 5.9 7.9 2.7 7.7 2.8 5.3 2011 6.7 8.3 8.0 3.4
NAEP % Advanced Reading Grade 4 - Race/Ethnicity
NAEP % Advanced Reading Grade 8 - Race/Ethnicity
NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 4 - Race/Ethnicity
NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 8 - Race/Ethnicity
22.3
NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 4 - SES
NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 8 - SES
How is Wisconsin doing?
Grade 4 NAEP Reading by Race
White Black Hispanic0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
Grade 8 NAEP Reading by Race
White Black Hispanic0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
Grade 4 NAEP Math by Race
White Black Hispanic0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
Grade 8 NAEP Math by Race
White Black Hispanic0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
Grade 4 Reading by Lunch Status
Full price Reduced/free0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
Grade 8 Reading by Lunch Status
Full price Reduced/free0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
Grade 4 NAEP Math by Lunch Status
Full price Reduced/free0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
Grade 8 NAEP Math by Lunch Status
Full price Reduced/free0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
200320072011
Perc
ent A
dvan
ced
But why not other subjects?
… because math and reading look better.
Four Best Indicatorsof Advanced Achievement?
MathematicsScienceWritingCivics
What About Other 21st Century Skills?
Growing acknowledgement that other skills are necessary and should be the focus of education.Common Core assessments may paradoxically turn the assessment/student outcomes tide.Several models:
21st century learningHewlett Fdn: Deeper learningNRC: Cognitive, Interpersonal, IntrapersonalP21: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Communication, Collaboration
Partnership for 21st Century Skills
P21.org
But …… assessment of 21CS much harder than anticipatedRecent OSTP meeting:
Need better definitions, interventions, and assessments
For example:Creativity: Within reachCritical Thinking: Conceptual issuesCollaboration: ???Communication: ???
Poverty
Poverty, Poverty, Poverty
Correlates of Poverty
nutrition
risky personal behaviors
physical inactivity
violenceone- or no-parent homes
substance abuse
lack of educational opportunities
lack of economicopportunities
“tyranny of low expectations”lower aspirations
unrealistic expectations for the future weak political base
poor educational facilities
underqualified teachers
unqualified teachers
underqualified educational leaders
limited resources for interventions
crime
mediocre or no early childcare/preschool
stereotype threat
pollution
Different cultural/ social norms and expectations
DeNavas-Walt, Carmen, Bernadette D. Proctor, and Jessica C. Smith, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60-239, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2010, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC,2011.
Child Poverty Rates in Industrialized Countries
Icelan
d
Finlan
d
Netherla
nds
German
y
France
Hungary UK
Canad
aJap
an Italy US
Romania
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ReportedBefore benefits
Source: UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre (2012), ‘Measuring Child Poverty: New league tables of child poverty in the world’s rich countries’, Innocenti Report Card 10, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, Florence.
Child Poverty Rates in Industrialized Countries
Icelan
d
Finlan
d
Netherla
nds
German
y
France
Hungary UK
Canad
aJap
an Italy US
Romania
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ReportedBefore benefits
Source: UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre (2012), ‘Measuring Child Poverty: New league tables of child poverty in the world’s rich countries’, Innocenti Report Card 10, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, Florence.
State-by-State …
States with over 50% of students eligible for FRL: 17
States with over 40% of students eligible: 35
Range from 24% to 72%
States with majority-minority school populations: 13
States with near-majority-minority school populations: 10
Range from 8-92%
Source: NCES, Condition of Education, 2011 and 2012
Implications and Interventions
ConclusionsThe percentage of American students who perform at advanced levels on international assessments does not compare favorably to those in other countries.Excellence gaps remain large and, in many cases, continue to grow.State assessments continue to overidentify advanced performance; regardless, excellence gaps are found on almost every state assessment.
Big Implication
We can predict with high accuracy that a talented student who is poor and/or Hispanic, Black, or Native American will not perform at advanced levels in K-12 education.
Hence “persistent talent underclass.”
ImplicationsAs income disparity reaches unprecedented levels, we fear a vicious circle of EGs feeding greater income gaps, feeding greater EGs, feeding greater income gaps, etc.
The global warming of education?i.e., people are resigned to this inequality
Andy Smarick’s recent thoughts about giftedness and the American consciousness
RecommendationsTwo questions for policymakers:
How will the proposed policy impact our highest achieving students?How will the proposed policy help more students achieve at the highest levels?
Publish advanced test scores and excellence gaps whenever results are released.
Recommendations
Indicators for excellence and excellence gaps must be included in state accountability systems
21st century skills need to be incorporated into these systemsThese are the skills other countries envy
Aggressively address low-hanging policy issuesAnti-acceleration policies, rigid kindergarten age cut-offs
Quick, little group activityWhat can you do to help promote excellence and reduce excellence gaps in your schools and community?
Short-term: This yearMedium-term: Next year and the year after thatLong-term: 3+ years
Warren BuffettFortune, May 2, 2013:
No manager operates his or her plants at 80% efficiency when steps could be taken that would increase output. And no CEO wants male employees to be underutilized when improved training or working conditions would boost productivity. … If obvious benefits flow from helping the male component of the workforce achieve its potential, why in the world wouldn’t you want to include its counterpart? ... We've seen what can be accomplished when we use 50% of our human capacity. If you visualize what 100% can do, you'll join me as an unbridled optimist about America's future.
Sure, but 50% is wildly optimistic.