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JOHNSON COUNTY, KENTUCKY SECTION 202 PROJECT SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION FOR THE COST ESTIMATE VOLUME 5: PROJECT COST ESTIMATE DECEMBER 2019 U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS LOUISVILLE DISTRICT

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Page 1: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

JOHNSON COUNTY, KENTUCKY SECTION 202 PROJECT

SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION FOR THE COST ESTIMATE

VOLUME 5: PROJECT COST ESTIMATE

DECEMBER 2019

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS LOUISVILLE DISTRICT

Page 2: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................... 1

2 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 1

3 PROJECT FEATURE ACCOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED SCOPE ................... 1

3.1 (01) LANDS & DAMAGES .................................................................................................................. 13.2 (02) RELOCATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 13.3 (06) FISH & WILDLIFE FACILITIES .................................................................................................... 23.4 (11) LEVEES & FLOODWALLS ............................................................................................................ 23.5 (15) FLOODWAY CONTROL & DIVERSION STRUCTURES ..................................................................... 43.6 (18) CULTURAL RESOURCES.............................................................................................................. 53.7 (19) BUILDINGS, GROUND & UTILITIES ............................................................................................. 53.8 (20) PERMANENT OPERATING EQUIPMENT ........................................................................................ 63.9 (30) PLANNING, ENGINEERING, AND DESIGN ................................................................................... 63.10 (31) SUPERVISION AND ADMINISTRATION ................................................................................... 6

4 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 6

4.1 GENERAL .......................................................................................................................................... 6 4.2 COST METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................... 7 4.3 DIRECT COSTS .................................................................................................................................. 7 4.4 INDIRECT COSTS ............................................................................................................................... 8

5 TOTAL PROJECT COST SUMMARY ................................................................. 9

ATTACHMENT A.......................................................................................................... 11

ALT 2 (RECOMMENDED PLAN) & ALT 3 MII REPORT............................................................................... 11

ATTACHMENT B .......................................................................................................... 16

RECOMMENDED PLAN CSRA ........................................................................................................... 16

ATTACHMENT C.......................................................................................................... 22

ALT 2 (RECOMMENDED PLAN), ALT 3 & ALT 4 (NON-STRUCTURAL) TPCS ............................................ 22

ATTACHMENT D.......................................................................................................... 29

ANNUALIZED COST SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 29

ATTACHMENT E .......................................................................................................... 30

OPERATION & MAINTENANCE COST SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 30

ATTACHMENT F .......................................................................................................... 34

MAJOR REHAB CALCULATION .................................................................................................................. 34

ATTACHMENT G ......................................................................................................... 35

CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE ...................................................................................................................... 35

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Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

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1 INTRODUCTION

This section of the report details the preparation of the cost estimate, which contains all appropriate feature accounts, and the development of the implementation schedule for the project.

2 REFERENCES

• ER 1110-1-1300, Cost Engineering Policy & General Requirements, 26 Mar 1993.

• ER 1110-2-1302, Civil Works Cost Engineering, 15 June 2016. • EI 01D010, Construction Cost Estimates, 1 Sept 1997. • ER 1110-2-1150, Engineering & Design for Civil Works Projects, 31 Aug 1999. • ER 37-2-10 Change 89, Accounting And Reporting – Civil Works Activities, 31

Oct 2000. • EC 11-2-187, Corps Of Engineers Civil Works Direct Program: Program

Development Guidance – Fiscal Year 2009, 30 Mar 2007. • EP 1110-1-8 Volume 2, Construction Equipment Ownership and Operating

Expense Schedule – Region II, July 2007. • EC Bulletin No 2007-17, Application of Cost Risk Analysis Methods to develop

Contingencies for Civil Works Total Project Costs, 10 Sep 2007. • EM 1110-2-1304, Civil Works Construction Cost Index System (CWCCIS), 31

Mar 2008. • EC 1105-2-410, Review of Decision Documents, 1 July 2008—DRAFT • ETL 1110-2-573, Construction Cost Estimating Guide for Civil Works, 30 Sept

2008.

3 PROJECT FEATURE ACCOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED SCOPE

3.1 (01) LANDS & DAMAGES • This feature account covers all costs associated with Real Estate, including lands,

easements, rights of way, etc. The cost estimate for this account was provided by the Real Estate PDT team member and inserted into the MII estimate and TPCS. More information can be found in the RE appendix/tab.

3.2 (02) RELOCATIONS • This feature account covers the relocations of existing utilities impacted by this

project. The types and scope of relocations included in this cost estimate are outlined in the table below:

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Utility Relocations and Floodwall and levee penetrations.

Gas Line Diameter 2" 3" 4" 6"

Relocation Length 1,390 650 # of Penetrations 1 2 4 1

Water Line Diameter 6" 8" 10" 12"

Length 500 300 450 375 # of Penetrations 1 2 0 6

Sanitary Sewer Line Diameter 6" 8" 10" 14"

Length 800 990 # of Penetrations 0 5 2 2

Storm Sewer Diameter 24" 30" 60"

Length 797 220 570 # of Penetrations 13 3 5

Power Voltage Low Med High

Poles Relocated 6 5 3

• Also included is the repair/reconstruction of River Rd, which is on the south side of Paint Creek and is assumed to be damaged during construction by hauling/miscellaneous construction activities.

• A conservative length of 1,000 LF of road has been included to be replaced.

3.3 (06) FISH & WILDLIFE FACILITIES • Environmental mitigation costs are included in this account for the restoration of 13

acres. • Scope assumptions include clearing & grubbing, the planting of 435 seedlings per

acre, as well as covering the remaining area with native grass seed and straw cover in order to aid establishment of grass.

3.4 (11) LEVEES & FLOODWALLS Levees • The following reaches of levees are included, as shown on the plan sheets:

o State Street Levee o Flat Rock Branch Levee o Blackberry Branch Levee o Court House Levee o Walnut Avenue Levee

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o King’s Addition Levee • All levees have a cut volume that is assumed to be removed and hauled offsite. The

replacement volume and the additional fill required are assumed to come from the borrow area outlined in the plan sheets.

• Borrow area material assumed to be acceptable pending some grading/disking/watering of the material to allow it to break down. This effort has been included in the cost estimate.

Floodwalls

• The following reaches of floodwalls are included, as shown on the plan sheets: o Main Floodwall o Euclid Ave Floodwall o Highland Ave Floodwall

• Floodwall lengths were calculated based on the plan sheets and from LRL Structures section.

• Dimensions/qtys also obtained from Structures and validated in qty backup. • Assumed 3 rows of battered piles, HP 14 x 73, 70’ deep, spaced 5’ OC along every

length. • Floodwalls 15 ft high and taller are assumed to have a 30 ft deep sheet pile cutoff

wall underneath. PZ-22 sheets assumed. • Excavated material will be replaced as fill material once the floodwall is placed to

get the surrounding areas to grade. All excess material hauled offsite.

Alternative #2 Length (feet)

Main Wall

> 6' I-Wall 1,530 10' T-wall 320 15' T-wall 280 28' T-wall 165

Euclid Ave Wall > 6' I-Wall 1,716 10' T-wall 2,505

Highland Ave Wall

> 6' I-Wall 320

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Total Floodwalls

> 6' I-Wall 3,566 10' T-wall 2,825 15' T-wall 280 28' T-wall 165

Road Closures

• There are 4 road closures that will consist of a steel closure gate being constructed across various roadways – Tutor Key Rd., two on Route 40, and Bridge Street.

• Gates vary in height from 3-6 ft. Assumed a weight of 150 Lbs/SF of gate based on previous road closure structures in estimator’s experience.

• Additional personnel gate added into this feature so that there can be passage when the gates are closed.

Demolition

• All demolition of buildings required for levee and floodwall alignments have been included in this feature account.

• Building footprints calculated using Adobe area measurements and included in qty backup.

• Buildings assumed to be an average of 15 ft high for volume calculations for haul off and disposal. Apartment building assumed to be 30 ft.

3.5 (15) FLOODWAY CONTROL & DIVERSION STRUCTURES Interceptor Pipes

• Sizes/Lengths assumed below. • Assumed Pipe diameter plus 1 ft on each side for roadway cut, 12” deep. Demolish

pavement, haul off and dispose. • Excavate down 4 ft plus pipe diameter. • Pipe assumed to be corrugated HDPE. Backfill with CLSM up to pavement section. • Pavement section assumed to be roadway cut width, 10” concrete base, 2” asphalt

surface course. #3 dowels every 12” on center both sides of roadway cut. • Assumed inlets every 100 ft for runs on the North side, and curb and gutter. (Reduce

productivity here) • For all runs sanitary manholes 300 ft. • Location Pipe Dia Pipe Length • Mill Branch (S) 3x 36” 300’

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Closure Structure

• Based on Isometric provided by Structures. Roughly 90 ft wide by 270 ft long, with three (3) 25’ x 25’ steel tainter gates.

• Assumed HP 14 x 73 spaced 6.5’ OC over the footprint of the base slabs for the approach slab and stilling basin; spaced 5’ OC over the footprint of the gate/structure slab. Assumed avg depth 80 ft.

• PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep.

• Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter • 5,000 psi concrete assumed to be required for entire structure. • Assumption for construction is that a combi-wall cofferdam will be constructed

around the work area. • Paint Creek will bypass the cofferdam via three (3) 10’ x 10’ box culverts that will be

placed alongside the cofferdam to convey water. • Access ramps from both the North and South shores will be constructed to allow

access. The South access ramp will be placed over the box culverts with an appropriate amount of fill material as cover.

• Excavated material will be hauled offsite for disposal.

3.6 (18) CULTURAL RESOURCES • There will be a cultural resource survey down and there will be some costs incurred.

Depending on the level of involvement from State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) this cost could be significant. Assumption in the cost estimate is that this will be $1 million which the PDT recognizes could be conservative but at this point in the project this is what the team felt comfortable using.

3.7 (19) BUILDINGS, GROUND & UTILITIES Non-Structural

• There are 6 structures included in Alternatives 2 & 3 that are assumed to have dry floodproofing measures incorporated. These have been priced out as being performed by a construction contractor.

• The Non-structural elements for Alternative 4 were not priced out as construction; but rather using PVA data for replacement of those structures. More discussion on this is included in Volume 6.

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3.8 (20) PERMANENT OPERATING EQUIPMENT • This feature account is to include the costs for a flood warning and emergency

evacuation plan (FWEEP) that will be implemented across the county, with an assumed cost of $1 million

• The FWEEP that will reduce life safety risk associated with flash flooding, secondarily provide important basin inflow data to the Paint Creek Closure Operator, and to assist emergency response capabilities of the local emergency responders. It will include:

o A written plan that communicates how to operate the Paintsville FRM closure structures during flood emergencies

o A plan for evacuation in the event of flash flooding or potential design exceedance of levees and/or floodwalls.

o An automated flood warning system including, data collection, processing, and dissemination system.

o A study of inundation areas to support the evacuation plan.

3.9 (30) PLANNING, ENGINEERING, AND DESIGN • The work covered under this account includes project management, project planning,

preliminary design, final design, geotechnical and HTRW investigations, hydraulic modeling, preparation of plans & specifications, engineering during construction, coordination efforts, contract advertisement, opening of bids, and contract award. The cost for this account was estimated with input from the project manager, engineering design branch chief, planning chief, and the PDT for all anticipated tasks for this project.

3.10 (31) SUPERVISION AND ADMINISTRATION • The work covered under this account includes contract supervision, contract

administration, construction administration, technical management activities, and District office supervision and administration costs. The cost for this account was estimated with input from the project manager, engineering design branch chief, planning chief, and historical S&A rates from other similar-sized projects.

4 METHODOLOGY

4.1 GENERAL

The cost estimate was prepared in MII, MCACES the 2nd generation, version 4.3 for all feature accounts associated with construction. Certain costs were derived from detail while some were based upon other sources as mentioned below.

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4.2 COST METHODOLOGY

4.2.1 Historical Unit Pricing

In some instances, historical cost information was referenced and documented accordingly. These historical references include past contract bid prices for projects of similar design and magnitude and recent government studies and cost estimates.

4.2.2 Quote-in-Place

In some instances, a quote from a subcontractor may have been received that included overhead and profit. In that case, no additional markups were included for subcontractor’s overhead.

4.2.3 Detailed MII Cost Estimate

The MII estimating software was used to develop a construction sequence for each item of work and applying detailed line items and crews to perform the work. Crews were developed in correspondence with the work being performed and estimated productivities. Wage rates were taken from a combination of the local Davis Bacon rates. The latest MII equipment database was also used and adjusted for current fuel and energy costs. Material prices were obtained through telephone solicitations with vendors, Internet suppliers, the MII Cost Book, and R.S. MEANS. A summary level report of the MII cost estimate for the Recommended Plan can be found in Attachment A.

4.3 DIRECT COSTS

Direct costs are based on anticipated equipment, labor, and materials necessary to construct this project. Following formulation of the direct cost, a determination is made as to whether the work would be performed by the prime contractor or a subcontractor.

4.3.1 Labor - Wage Determination

Wage rates were taken from the latest Davis-Bacon wage determination. A combination of D-B KY20190043 03/01/2019, Building & KY20190050 05/10/2019, Heavy.

4.3.2 Equipment Costs

The 2016 Equipment database, based on EP 1110-1-8, Construction Equipment Ownership and Operation Expense Schedule, Region II, was used and adjusted for current, local fuel and energy costs.

4.3.3 Vendor Quotes

Vendor quotes have been acquired and documented for the anticipated material costs for most features of work.

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4.3.4 Crews

Project specific crews have been developed and applied to the detailed line items as appropriate. Crew members consist of selected complements of labor classifications and equipment pieces assembled to perform specific tasks. Productivity has been assigned to each crew reflective of the expected output per unit of measure for the specific activities listed in the cost estimate. In considering the crews and productivities, the engineer typically referenced other, similar work found in national reference manuals such as R.S. MEANS construction data, the MI Cost book, and other projects developed by USACE.

4.3.5 Quantities

Quantities were developed by USACE for each feature of work. Quantities were checked/verified by the estimator and adjusted to account for construction methodology, shrink, swell, waste, etc. Other associated sub-quantities were also developed by the estimator.

4.4 INDIRECT COSTS

4.4.1 Contract Acquisition Strategy

Through discussions with the Project Manager (PM) & PDT, one contract is planned for the remaining work. The assumption is that the winning Prime contractor would self-perform a small portion (~25%) of the major civil activities, while the remaining work will be subcontracted out.

4.4.2 Prime Contractors

4.4.2.1 Job Office Overhead (FOOH)

Job Office Overhead (JOOH) is estimated by percentage within the estimate for the Prime contractor. The estimate of 15% is based on similar-sized projects and includes such items as project supervision, contractor quality control, contractor field office supplies, personal protective equipment, field engineering, and other incidental field overhead costs.

4.4.2.2 Home Office Overhead (HOOH)

For Home Office Overhead (HOOH) expense, the cost estimate includes an allowance applied as percentage at 8% of direct cost plus field overhead. HOOH includes items such as office rental / ownership costs, utilities, office equipment ownership/maintenance, office staff (managers, accountants, clerical, etc.), insurance, and miscellaneous. In reality, the range of home office overhead can be quite broad and depends largely on the contractor’s annual volume of work and the type of work that is generally performed by the contractor.

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4.4.2.3 Profit

Profit was included as a running percentage of 10% for Prime based on Estimator judgment.

4.4.2.4 Bond

Bond was included as a running percentage of 1.5% (own work and subcontracted work).

4.4.2.5 Local Occupational Tax

A local occupational tax was included as a running percentage of 2.5% based on PDT input and local regulations.

4.4.3 Subcontractors

4.4.3.1 Overhead

All subcontractor overhead costs are set to 8% JOOH and 8% HOOH (own work and subcontracted work) of direct cost to account their JOOH and HOOH costs. The exception is where the subcontractor has provided a quoted price including overhead. In that case, no additional markups have been included for subcontractor’s overhead.

4.4.3.2 Profit

Sub Profit was included as a running percentage of 8% based on estimator judgment.

4.4.4 Escalation

The contract was escalated to the mid-point of construction using CWCCIS, to account for potential inflation during construction. This is included in the TPCS file, not the cost estimate in MII.

4.4.5 Contingency

Contingency was applied at 26% based on the results of the Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis, conducted 6-7 Sep 2019, with updates to specific risks and design features following.

5 TOTAL PROJECT COST SUMMARY

The feasibility-level cost estimate for the Recommended Plan (Alt 2) at the FY20 price level is $110,305,000 (including spent costs for PED). This estimate was escalated over the implementation schedule to generate a fully funded cost estimate in the amount of $116,997,000. The costs for the other alternatives can be found in the TPCS pdfs included in attachment C as follows.

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ATTACHMENT A

ALT 2 (RECOMMENDED PLAN) & ALT 3 MII REPORT

Page 14: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

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Page 15: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

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ands

& D

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es ..

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ish

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.. 1

11 L

evee

s &

Flo

odw

alls

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

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......

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15 F

lood

way

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trol

and

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ersi

on S

truc

ture

s ....

......

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rces

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ings

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unds

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. 1

Page 16: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Prin

t Dat

e Fr

i 6 D

ecem

ber 2

019

U

.S. A

rmy

Cor

ps o

f Eng

inee

rs

Tim

e 09

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01

Eff.

Dat

e 10

/1/2

019

Pr

ojec

t : J

ohns

on C

ount

y Se

c 20

2 Fe

asib

ility

N

ew R

epor

t Ta

ble

of C

onte

nts

Labo

r ID

: NLS

2016

EQ

ID: E

P16R

02

Cur

renc

y in

US

dolla

rs

TRAC

ES M

II Ve

rsio

n 4.

4

20 P

erm

anen

t Ope

ratin

g Eq

uipm

ent ..

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ngin

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g &

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ign .

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31 C

onst

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.. 1

Page 17: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Prin

t Dat

e Fr

i 6 D

ecem

ber 2

019

U

.S. A

rmy

Cor

ps o

f Eng

inee

rs

Tim

e 09

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01

Eff.

Dat

e 10

/1/2

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ojec

t : J

ohns

on C

ount

y Se

c 20

2 Fe

asib

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ew R

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ge 1

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ntity

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tinge

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r ID

: NLS

2016

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ID: E

P16R

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renc

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Page 18: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

16 | P a g e

ATTACHMENT B

Recommended Plan CSRA

Page 19: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Nor

th B

ranc

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Cre

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urat

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Page 20: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Nor

th B

ranc

h E

cors

e C

reek

Flo

od R

isk

Man

agem

ent G

RR

FY

16 U

pdat

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AP

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C

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Risk

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ppor

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and

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ly (C

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e (8

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)

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ly A

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nt P

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vent

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mul

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Sc

hed

(S)

Risk

Qua

ntifi

catio

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sions

Risk

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gatio

n M

easu

res

Lan

ds a

nd D

amag

es (L

D)

LD

10

Add

ition

al E

asem

ents

may

be

need

ed.

Add

ition

al e

asem

ent a

cqui

sitio

n m

ay b

e ne

eded

to p

erfo

rm w

ork.

Add

ition

al e

asem

ent a

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n m

ay b

e ne

cess

ary

to

perf

orm

wor

k, o

r so

that

futu

re O

&M

can

be

perf

orm

ed.

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ikel

yM

argi

nal

Low

Unl

ikel

ySi

gnifi

cant

Med

ium

0 M

onth

s0

Mon

ths

4 M

onth

sPr

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es$0

$0$3

24,8

5110

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

LD

20

Rea

l est

ate

acqu

isiti

ons n

ot

com

plet

ed fo

r int

erio

r wal

lsTh

is m

ay p

ush

cont

ract

aw

ard

out

if th

ose

prop

ertie

s are

n't a

cqui

red

Can

not a

war

d un

til A

LL re

al e

stat

e is

acq

uire

d.

Poss

ible

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ium

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ths

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0%$0

100%

0 M

o

Env

iron

men

tal a

nd R

egul

ator

y

ER

10

Miti

gatio

n Sc

ope

Cur

rent

ly 2

.3 A

cres

of m

itiga

tion

incl

uded

Incl

uded

13

acre

s in

estim

ate.

Wos

rt-ca

se a

sum

ptio

n is

th

at th

e sc

ope

incr

ease

s by

up to

25%

, whe

ther

it b

e ad

ditio

nal a

crea

ge o

r add

ition

al w

ork

requ

ired

with

in th

e 13

acr

es.

Poss

ible

Mar

gina

lL

owPo

ssib

leM

argi

nal

Low

$0$0

$121

,901

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

ER

20

His

toric

stru

ctur

es in

the

area

w

ill b

e ad

vers

ely

impa

cted

by

cons

truct

ion

Bas

ed o

n in

itial

look

ther

e ar

e a

num

ber o

f stru

ctur

es im

pact

ed.

Initi

al th

ough

t is $

3-6m

for C

ultu

ral R

esou

rces

, to

be

refin

ed fu

rther

in P

ED. U

nifo

rm fr

om $

3-6m

, add

$3m

to

base

est

imat

e. *

Rev

ised

by

PDT

to b

e ro

ughl

y $1

m, w

ith a

po

tent

ial i

mpa

ct o

f ano

ther

$1m

(wor

st c

ase

tota

l of

$2m

). A

nyth

ing

abov

e an

d be

yond

this

scop

e w

ould

be

miti

gate

d w

ith S

HPP

O a

nd re

duce

d do

wn

to a

mor

e re

sona

ble

amou

nt o

r diff

eren

t sco

pe.

Poss

ible

Mod

erat

eM

ediu

mPo

ssib

leM

argi

nal

Low

$0$0

$1,0

00,0

0010

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

Con

trac

t Acq

uisi

tion

(CA

)

CA

10

Bes

t val

ue c

ontra

ct a

war

d

Cur

rent

dire

ctio

n is

for l

ow-b

id

proc

urem

ent.

Pos

sibl

e ot

her

proc

urem

ent m

etho

ds m

ay b

e ut

ilize

d in

clud

ing

best

val

ue /

trade

of

f app

roac

h.

Cou

ld im

pact

the

over

all c

onst

ruct

ion

cost

s up

to 5

%.

Ass

ume

roug

hly

25%

cha

nce

that

this

occ

urs,

as it

is

antic

ipat

ed th

at th

ere

will

be

adeq

uate

com

petit

ion

and

the

low

bid

der w

ill n

ot b

e su

bsta

ntia

lly le

ss c

ompe

tent

that

th

e ne

xt-lo

wes

t.

Poss

ible

Sign

ifica

ntM

ediu

mPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

$0$0

$3,2

48,5

0925

%$0

100%

0 M

o

Clo

sure

Str

uctu

re

CS1

0H

Pile

des

ign

Cur

rent

ly 8

0 ft

in e

stim

ate.

Max

dep

th w

ill

be 3

5 ft

due

to ro

ck e

leva

tion

of E

L. 5

30

and

slab

EL.

Of 5

64.

Due

to ro

ck e

leva

tion,

pile

s will

be

shor

t tha

n in

est

imat

e (C

HA

NG

E IN

EST

IMA

TE).

Spac

ing

at 5

' OC

is o

k. 8

0/20

split

be

twee

n ba

tter/v

ertic

al sh

ould

be

fine

base

d on

Stru

ctur

al e

val.

Cha

nce

that

mid

dle

of th

e cr

eek

is 1

0 ft

deep

er to

rock

; say

50

ft w

ide

is d

eepe

r, m

ultip

ly #

of p

iles i

n th

at a

rea

to fi

nd w

orst

cas

e im

pact

.

Unl

ikel

yM

oder

ate

Low

Unl

ikel

yN

eglig

ible

Low

$0$0

$592

,348

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS2

0Sh

eet P

ile C

utof

fC

urre

ntly

80

ft in

est

imat

e. M

ax d

epth

will

be

35

ft du

e to

rock

ele

vatio

n of

EL.

530

an

d sl

ab E

L. O

f 564

.

Due

to ro

ck e

leva

tion,

pile

s will

be

shor

t tha

n in

est

imat

e (C

HA

NG

E IN

EST

IMA

TE).

Cha

nce

that

mid

dle

of th

e cr

eek

is 1

0 ft

deep

er to

rock

; say

50

ft w

ide

is d

eepe

r, m

ultip

ly #

of p

iles i

n th

at a

rea

to fi

nd w

orst

cas

e im

pact

.

Poss

ible

Neg

ligib

leL

owPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

$0$0

$20,

000

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS3

0B

ase

slab

dep

th -

Entra

nce

and

Still

ing

Bas

in3'

bas

e sl

ab u

sed

in e

stim

ate;

Cou

ld b

e le

ss

Plan

s sho

w 2

' but

est

imat

e w

ill st

ick

with

3' f

or ti

me

bein

g un

til

mor

e de

sign

info

rmat

ion

is a

vila

ble;

mod

el p

ossi

blity

that

bot

h en

tranc

e an

d st

illin

g ba

sin

slab

s will

be

2' th

ick

as sh

own.

Po

tent

ial d

ecre

ase

of 1

/3 o

f cos

t sho

wn

for l

ow sc

enrio

; mod

el a

s tri

angu

lar.

Like

lyM

oder

ate

Med

ium

Like

lyN

eglig

ible

Low

-$66

6,33

3$0

$010

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

CS4

1B

ase

slab

dep

th -

Clo

sure

st

ruct

ure

Estim

ate

assu

mes

larg

er se

ctio

n ac

ross

en

tire

wid

th o

f stru

ctur

e; w

ill b

e sm

alle

r ov

er a

smal

l por

tion

Estim

ates

ass

umes

wha

t is p

roba

bly

the

wor

st c

ase

dept

h/th

ickn

ess

for t

he sl

ab u

nder

the

clos

ure

stru

ctur

e; te

am fe

els t

his i

s ade

quat

e as

wor

st c

ase

risk

but f

eels

it is

con

serv

ativ

e to

go

forw

ard

with

th

is a

nd n

ot c

arry

any

opp

ortu

nity

for r

educ

tion

in th

e es

timat

e

Unl

ikel

yN

eglig

ible

Low

Unl

ikel

yN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS5

0Pi

er th

ickn

ess -

Clo

sure

st

ruct

ure

Cur

rent

ly sh

own

at 4

ft fo

r out

side

pie

rs; 5

ft

for i

nter

ior p

iers

Estim

ate

uses

wha

t is s

how

n on

the

plan

s; co

uld

be a

s big

as 8

ft.

Mod

el a

s tria

ngul

ar fo

r 5-8

ft th

ick.

Mod

eled

as a

n ad

ditio

n of

1-3

fe

et o

f thi

ckne

ss b

ased

on

5 ft,

so 2

0-60

% a

dditi

onal

.V

ery

Like

lyM

argi

nal

Med

ium

Ver

y Li

kely

Neg

ligib

leL

ow$5

58,7

99$0

$1,6

76,3

980

Mon

ths

0 M

onth

s1

Mon

ths

Pre

No

$0$0

$40,

606

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS6

1Ta

inte

r gat

e si

zeC

urre

ntly

show

n at

25'

x 2

5' fo

r 3 g

ates

; co

uld

pote

ntia

lly b

e sm

alle

r or l

arge

r

Cou

ld p

oten

tially

be

1 ga

te th

at's

the

sam

e si

ze; w

ould

als

o ha

ve

acco

mpa

nyin

g fla

p ga

tes o

n ei

ther

side

. Tea

m fe

els l

ike

this

layo

ut

with

3 g

ates

will

be

as b

ig a

s the

stru

ctur

e co

uld

pote

ntia

lly g

et.

Ver

y ne

glig

ible

cha

nce

that

gat

es w

ill b

e la

rger

than

this

, and

po

tent

ial i

ncre

ase

wou

ldn'

t be

muc

h la

rger

. Tea

m a

lso

feel

s lik

e th

e po

tent

ial t

o dr

op to

1 g

ate

will

be

used

as a

pot

entia

l cos

t sa

ving

mec

hani

sm d

own

the

road

if n

eede

d.

Unl

ikel

yN

eglig

ible

Low

Unl

ikel

yN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS7

0R

ip R

ap a

rmor

ing

of o

ppos

ite

bank

of L

evis

aN

othi

ng in

est

imat

e; p

oten

tial t

o ad

d in

to

the

estim

ate

beca

use

it m

ight

be

need

ed

Ass

umed

leng

th o

f rou

ghly

300

LF

base

d on

ope

ning

of P

aint

C

reek

; ass

ume

prot

ectio

n fr

om E

L. 5

98 to

EL.

564

, diff

eren

ce o

f 34

ft (s

lope

leng

th o

f 76

ft); a

ssum

e 3

ft de

pth

so 2

,533

CY

. A

ssum

e pl

acem

ent b

y ba

nk, n

ot m

arin

e. A

dded

into

mod

el b

ut

assu

med

wor

st-c

ase

of d

oubl

e th

e qu

antit

y.

Cer

tain

Mar

gina

lR

eloo

k at

B

asis

of

Est

imat

eC

erta

inN

eglig

ible

Rel

ook

at

Bas

is o

f Sc

hedu

le$1

79,5

30$0

$179

,530

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS8

1B

affle

Blo

cks

Add

som

e ba

ffle

blo

cks i

nD

one

Cer

tain

Mar

gina

lR

eloo

k at

B

asis

of

Est

imat

eC

erta

inN

eglig

ible

Rel

ook

at

Bas

is o

f Sc

hedu

le

CS9

1C

rane

requ

irem

ent

No

cran

e on

the

stru

ctur

e to

pla

ce/re

mov

e th

e bu

lkhe

ads i

n th

e st

ruct

ure

PDT

look

ed a

t cra

ne re

quire

men

ts a

nd w

ould

be

too

larg

e to

hav

e pe

rman

ent o

n th

e st

ruct

ure.

Will

be

an O

&M

con

cern

Unl

ikel

yM

argi

nal

Low

Unl

ikel

yN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS1

01

Nee

d fo

r bac

kup

gene

rato

r/red

unda

nt p

ower

In c

ase

of a

pow

er o

utag

e du

ring

a bi

g ev

ent,

gate

s will

still

nee

d to

ope

rate

(can

be

low

ered

by

hand

cra

nk).

Bul

khea

ds w

ill

be p

lace

d by

cra

ne so

no

need

for p

ower

.

Add

in so

met

hing

like

a 5

hP

gene

rato

r to

cove

r the

ope

ratio

n of

th

e ta

inte

r gat

es d

urin

g an

y po

wer

out

age.

(Add

ed in

to e

stim

ate)

Cer

tain

Mar

gina

lR

eloo

k at

B

asis

of

Est

imat

eC

erta

inN

eglig

ible

Rel

ook

at

Bas

is o

f Sc

hedu

le10

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

CS1

11

Ope

ratin

g m

achi

nery

for g

ates

w

ill b

e co

mpa

rabl

e to

B

earg

rass

Che

ck sc

ope

of B

earg

rass

. Cur

rent

ly b

ased

on

chai

n ho

ists

from

N

ew S

avan

nah

Blu

ff L

&D

, whi

ch h

as g

ates

that

are

60'

x 1

5'.

Shou

ld b

e su

ffic

ient

for 2

5' x

25'

gat

es.

Unl

ikel

yM

argi

nal

Low

Unl

ikel

yN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS1

20

Cof

ferd

ams n

eed

to b

e de

sign

ed to

the

top

of

expe

cted

floo

ds fo

r CS

cons

truct

ion

Bot

h up

stre

am a

nd d

owns

tream

cof

ferd

ams

(or a

sing

le c

onne

cted

cof

ferd

am) w

ill n

eed

to b

e hi

gh e

noug

h th

at th

ey d

on't

flood

fr

om L

evis

a

Ass

ume

coff

erda

m fr

om E

L. 5

60 to

EL.

590

aro

und

the

wor

k ar

ea. L

engt

h of

640

ft a

nd 3

0 ft

deep

. (A

dd in

the

dem

o/re

mov

al o

f no

rth b

ank

stor

age

units

and

acc

ess r

oads

). A

ssum

e po

tent

ial o

f 10

0 LF

ext

ra le

ngth

bas

ed o

n la

yout

.

Cer

tain

Mar

gina

lR

eloo

k at

B

asis

of

Est

imat

eC

erta

inN

eglig

ible

Rel

ook

at

Bas

is o

f Sc

hedu

le$0

$0$8

29,9

320

Mon

ths

0 M

onth

s1

Mon

ths

Pre

No

$0$0

$40,

606

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

CS1

31

Div

ersi

on C

ulve

rt in

stea

d of

by

pass

pum

ping

Cur

rent

ly e

stim

ate

show

s byp

ass p

umpi

ng;

team

thin

ks d

iver

sion

cul

vert

wou

ld b

e m

ore

effic

ient

/feas

ible

Eric

sizi

ng th

e op

enin

g ne

eded

to p

ass 5

,000

CFS

for d

iver

sion

st

rcut

ure.

Add

into

est

imat

e w

ith e

xcav

atio

n/ba

ckfil

l/rem

oval

Cer

tain

Mar

gina

lR

eloo

k at

B

asis

of

Est

imat

eC

erta

inN

eglig

ible

Rel

ook

at

Bas

is o

f Sc

hedu

le10

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

CS1

40

Add

in fl

ood

even

t ris

k ite

m

for c

lean

up

Ass

ume

may

be $

500k

-750

k pe

r occ

urre

nce,

and

ass

ume

a m

inim

um o

f one

and

max

of 2

eve

nts t

hat w

ould

occ

ur. U

se

$500

k fo

r one

eve

nt a

s low

, ad

$750

k fo

r 2 e

vent

s for

hig

h sc

enar

io.

Ver

y Li

kely

Mar

gina

lM

ediu

mV

ery

Like

lyN

eglig

ible

Low

$500

,000

$0$1

,500

,000

1 M

onth

s0

Mon

ths

2 M

onth

sPo

stN

o$0

$0$0

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

Floo

dwal

l

FW

11

H P

ile d

esig

nC

urre

nt e

stim

ate

does

not

hav

e pi

les f

or

flood

wal

l

Add

in 4

row

s of p

iles s

pace

d 5

ft O

C (a

ssum

ed b

atte

red)

and

70

ft de

pth

over

leng

th o

f big

gest

floo

dwal

l. A

ll ot

her f

lood

wal

l with

ab

ove

grad

e st

em h

eigh

t ove

r 10

ft us

e 3

row

s of p

iles s

pace

d 7.

5 ft

OC

. *A

dded

into

est

imat

e*

Cer

tain

Sign

ifica

ntR

eloo

k at

B

asis

of

Est

imat

eC

erta

inM

argi

nal

Rel

ook

at

Bas

is o

f Sc

hedu

le10

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

FW

20

Shee

t Pile

Cut

off

Cur

rent

ly h

ave

30 ft

dep

thSh

ould

be

ok b

ut g

eote

ch w

ill k

now

(che

ck b

ack

in a

wee

k or

tw

o). M

ax d

epth

of 4

0 ft

base

d on

rock

ele

vatio

n. (M

odel

as

trian

gula

r)Po

ssib

leM

oder

ate

Med

ium

Poss

ible

Neg

ligib

leL

ow$0

$0$1

,804

,800

75%

$010

0%0

Mo

FW

30

Pile

Driv

ing

Subs

urfa

ce o

bstru

ctio

ns m

ay c

ause

pile

dr

ivin

g is

sues

Lack

of g

eote

ch in

vest

igat

ions

giv

e un

certa

inty

to o

bstru

ctio

ns

that

may

be

enco

unte

red

durin

g pi

le d

rivin

g. A

ssum

e a

pote

ntia

l 10

-20%

redu

ctio

n in

pro

duct

ivity

and

an

addi

tiona

l 5%

mat

eria

l w

aste

qty

on

top

of w

hat's

ass

umed

in th

e es

timat

e as

wor

st c

ase

scen

ario

. Sho

uld

be a

pplie

d to

the

stor

age

area

wal

ls (a

nyth

ing

arou

dn P

aint

Cre

ek a

nd L

evis

a). T

otal

leng

th o

f H-P

ile ti

mes

the

diff

eren

ce in

10%

pro

d. a

nd 5

% m

ater

ial a

dd; v

s 20%

pro

d. a

nd

5% m

ater

ial a

dd.

Poss

ible

Mod

erat

eM

ediu

mPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

$279

,714

$0$4

87,2

7110

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

FW

41

Any

wor

k w

ithin

railr

oad

line

will

nee

d a

flagg

erTh

is w

ill c

ome

up fo

r any

wor

k at

railr

oad.

Cos

t of $

1k p

er d

ay

adde

d in

.Po

ssib

leM

argi

nal

Low

Poss

ible

Neg

ligib

leL

ow10

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

FW

51

Floo

dwal

l con

cret

e st

reng

ths

Floo

dwal

l bel

ow g

rade

: 4,0

00 p

siFl

oodw

all a

bove

gra

de: 4

,500

psi

Con

trol s

truct

ure:

5,0

00 p

si

Mod

ify th

is in

est

imat

e. C

hang

es m

ade

in e

stim

ate:

5k

psi c

oncr

ete

used

for a

ll cl

osur

e st

ruct

ure

conc

trete

, and

all

conc

rete

for

flood

wal

ls a

bove

10 ft

hig

h. 4

k ps

i con

cret

e us

ed fo

r flo

odw

all

belo

w 1

0 ft

and

any

rem

aini

ng c

oncr

ete.

Poss

ible

Mar

gina

lL

owPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

FW

61

Rai

lroad

tie-

ins m

ight

be

diff

icul

tTy

ing

into

railr

oad

abut

men

ts h

as n

ot b

een

look

ed in

to b

ut m

ay ta

ke so

me

care

May

nee

d to

take

floo

dwal

l und

er th

e ra

ilroa

d br

idge

to ti

e in

to

solid

gro

und

for s

eepa

ge is

sues

. For

est

imat

e, a

ssum

e an

ad

ditio

nal l

engt

h of

floo

dwal

l to

go u

nder

neat

h th

e ra

il ro

ad

brid

ge a

nd ti

e in

. Pile

driv

ing

redu

ctio

n fo

r low

hea

droo

m,

conf

ined

spac

e, e

tc. G

et q

ty fr

om Ja

cob

Poss

ible

Mar

gina

lL

owPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

FW

71

Exca

vatio

n/fil

l qty

for

flood

wal

lEs

timat

e as

sum

es so

me

but m

odel

ed q

ty

may

be

diff

eren

tG

et fr

om Ja

cob

- DO

NE.

Incl

uded

in e

stim

ate

as to

tal f

lood

wal

l ex

cava

tion/

fill.

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ible

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ligib

leL

owPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

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Mo

FW

81

Soil

cond

ition

und

erne

ath

non-

pile

-fou

nded

wal

lsM

ight

hav

e to

repl

ace

fill w

ith su

itabl

e in

so

me

area

s alo

ng P

aint

Cre

ek a

nd L

evis

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ould

be

a co

st in

crea

se to

brin

g su

itabl

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l.. In

clud

e in

est

imat

e to

rem

ove,

hau

l off

/dis

pose

, and

repl

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with

suita

ble

fill.

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ible

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gina

lL

owPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

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Mo

FW

91

Und

ergr

ound

stor

age

tank

al

ong

flood

wal

l alig

nmen

tN

ear t

he D

epot

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ridge

, acr

oss t

he c

reek

fr

om c

emet

ary

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oval

will

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nece

ssar

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d m

ight

be

expe

nsiv

e if

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ing.

Add

in

to e

stim

ate.

Pot

entia

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ase

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ario

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king

and

w

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Page 21: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Nor

th B

ranc

h E

cors

e C

reek

Flo

od R

isk

Man

agem

ent G

RR

FY

16 U

pdat

e

AP

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ND

IX A

C

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Sch

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isk

Risk

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ppor

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nt D

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Disc

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ly (C

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igh

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)

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aria

nce

(S)

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)Li

kely

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Hig

h V

aria

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Post

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aria

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ly A

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FW

101

Add

ition

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eet p

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tect

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p ex

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mig

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b Si

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rn. T

eam

feel

s ar

mor

ing

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pro

babl

y be

nee

ded

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rote

ct th

e em

bank

men

t. A

ssum

e 80

LF

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t pile

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l, 15

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into

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imat

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tain

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asis

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FW

110

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ake

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ifica

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ible

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121

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Nea

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aul d

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de sl

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ified

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babl

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ible

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tain

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asis

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ng in

for o

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ncou

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ed d

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ome

assu

mpt

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be.

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tain

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ligib

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k at

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asis

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use

buy

out c

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for e

very

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to th

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ause

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uced

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ct

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ng re

quire

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kee

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aft

wor

kers

.

This

pro

ject

shou

ld b

e a

high

prio

rity;

how

ever

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re c

ould

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a pr

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m p

aid

abov

e D

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tes f

or w

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rs to

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proj

ect i

f an

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pote

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Initi

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ased

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ario

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inal

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imum

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% g

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ptio

n

Ass

ume

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the

actu

al S

&A

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er

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duct

ion

of $

1-3M

on

S&A

am

ount

of $

9m.

*Rem

oved

from

mod

el a

s S&

A b

udge

t was

cut

to $

6m in

es

timat

e.

Poss

ible

Mar

gina

lL

owPo

ssib

leN

eglig

ible

Low

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

ES6

0M

ods/

Cla

ims

Mod

s/C

laim

s will

occ

ur o

n co

nstru

ctio

ncon

tract

s; ne

ed to

acc

ount

for

them

Initi

al th

ough

t 3-1

0%. T

ime

grow

th m

aybe

3-6

mon

ths.

Ver

y Li

kely

Sign

ifica

ntH

igh

Ver

y Li

kely

Mod

erat

eH

igh

$1,9

49,1

05$0

$6,4

97,0

183

Mon

ths

0 M

onth

s6

Mon

ths

Post

No

$0$0

$010

0%$0

100%

0 M

o

Cur

rent

est

imat

e do

es n

ot in

clud

e an

y w

ork

to th

e w

etw

ell.

MSD

MSD

requ

este

d th

at o

pera

tion

of W

este

rn F

PS b

e re

view

ed a

nd p

ossi

bly

impr

ove

the

hydr

aulic

s in

side

the

wet

wel

l. Li

kelih

ood

is li

kely

, and

cos

t cou

ld re

ach

$2M

M, t

here

fore

m

oder

ate

impa

ct.

Like

ly v

aria

nce

is a

ppro

x. $

500M

, or 2

5% o

f the

max

imum

.

Ext

erna

l Ris

ks (E

X)

EX1

0B

id P

rote

stPo

ssib

leEs

peci

ally

with

Bes

t Val

ue p

rocu

rem

ents

. Will

be

a sc

hedu

le d

elay

of

pos

sibl

y 3-

9 m

onth

s.Po

ssib

leM

oder

ate

Med

ium

Poss

ible

Neg

ligib

leL

ow3

Mon

ths

0 M

onth

s9

Mon

ths

Pre

Yes

$243

,638

$0$7

30,9

1530

%$0

100%

0 M

o

Due

to p

ossi

ble

wei

ght i

ncre

ase

of n

ew re

plac

emen

t pum

ps.

>4%

incr

ease

wou

ld

requ

ire st

ruct

ural

ana

lysi

s of s

uppo

rts.

Som

e ris

k po

ssib

ly m

itiga

ted

by lo

ad

test

ing

of c

rane

s dur

ing

PED

. A

ffec

ted

stat

ions

incl

ude

5th,

10t

h, 1

7th,

27t

h, a

nd

34th

stre

et P

S's.

Min

imum

is $

0 w

ith n

o cr

anes

bei

ng re

plac

ed, m

axim

um w

ith

all P

S's r

epla

cem

ent c

rane

s is $

1.5M

M, w

ith li

kely

bei

ng o

ne c

rane

nee

ding

re

plac

emen

t at $

300M

M.

EX2

0B

id ri

sk

Ris

k/O

ppor

tuni

ty th

at b

idde

rs w

ill h

ave

low

er/h

ighe

r bid

s tha

n th

e IG

Es fo

r eac

h co

ntra

ct.

Like

lihoo

d is

alm

ost c

erta

in; b

ased

on

bidd

ing

eviro

nmen

t, co

ntra

ct ty

pe, a

ssum

ed c

ontra

ctor

risk

, will

be

subj

ectiv

e ra

nge

that

cou

ld b

e re

aliz

ed. *

Not

e* th

is ri

sk w

ill fa

ll of

f onc

e pr

opos

als

com

e in

and

con

tract

is a

war

ded.

Ass

ume

a 2.

5-10

% sp

read

on

top

of th

e co

nstru

ctio

n co

st e

stim

ate

w/tr

iang

ular

mod

el.

Ver

y Li

kely

Sign

ifica

ntH

igh

Ver

y Li

kely

Neg

ligib

leL

ow$1

,624

,255

$0$6

,497

,018

100%

$010

0%0

Mo

Page 22: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

North Branch Ecorse Creek Flood Risk Management GRR FY16 Update

APPENDIX A

Contingency on Base EstimateBase Estimate (No Real Estate) $79,970,182

Baseline Estimate Cost Contingency Amount → $20,790,458 26%Baseline Cost (80% Confidence; No RE) → $100,760,640

Contingency on ScheduleProject Base Schedule Duration → 36.0 Months

Johnson County, Section 202 Schedule Contingency Duration → 17.6 Months 49%4-Sep-19 Project Schedule Duration (80% Confidence) → 53.6 Months

Base Case Estimate (Excluding 01)

Confidence Level Contingency Value Contingency0% 11,044,931 14% 79,970,182 11,044,931 10% 14,943,142 19% 79,970,182 14,943,142 20% 15,592,844 20% 79,970,182 15,592,844 30% 16,242,545 21% 79,970,182 16,242,545 40% 16,892,247 22% 79,970,182 16,892,247 50% 17,541,949 22% 79,970,182 17,541,949 60% 18,191,651 23% 79,970,182 18,191,651 70% 18,841,353 24% 79,970,182 18,841,353 80% 20,790,458 26% 79,970,182 20,790,458 90% 23,389,265 30% 79,970,182 23,389,265 100% 33,784,494 43% 79,970,182 33,784,494

Johnson County, Section 2024-Sep-19

Base Case Schedule

Confidence Level Contingency Value Contingency0% 10 Months 27% 36 10 10% 13 Months 36% 36 13 20% 14 Months 39% 36 14 30% 15 Months 41% 36 15 40% 15 Months 42% 36 15 50% 16 Months 44% 36 16 60% 16 Months 45% 36 16 70% 17 Months 47% 36 17 80% 18 Months 49% 36 18 90% 19 Months 52% 36 19 100% 24 Months 67% 36 24

80% Confidence Project Cost

80% Confidence Project Schedule

36.0 Months

- SCHEDULE CONTINGENCY (DURATION) DEVELOPMENT -

Contingency Analysis

- PROJECT CONTINGENCY DEVELOPMENT -

INITIAL CONSTRUCTIONContingency Analysis

$79,970,182

14% 19% 20% 21% 22% 22% 23% 24% 26% 30%43%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cos

t

Mill

ions

Confidence Levels

Cost Contingency

Contingency

1013 14 15 15 16 16 17 18 19

24

0 Months

10 Months

20 Months

30 Months

40 Months

50 Months

60 Months

70 Months

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cos

t

Confidence Levels

Schedule Contingency

Base Case Schedule Contingency

Page 23: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

North Branch Ecorse Creek Flood Risk Management GRR FY16 Update

APPENDIX A

Contingency on Base EstimateBase Estimate (No Real Estate) $79,970,182

Baseline Estimate Cost Contingency Amount → $20,790,458 26%Baseline Cost (80% Confidence; No RE) → $100,760,640

Contingency on Schedule

Project Base Schedule Duration → 36.0 Months Johnson County, Section 202 Schedule Contingency Duration → 17.6 Months 49%4-Sep-19 Project Schedule Duration (80% Confidence) → 53.6 Months

- Schedule Outputs Distribution and Sensitivity -

- Cost Outputs Distribution and Sensitivity -

Page 24: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

22 | P a g e

ATTACHMENT C

ALT 2 (RECOMMENDED PLAN) & ALT 3

Page 25: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

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Page 26: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

****

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97

TO

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L P

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(FU

LL

Y F

UN

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ctiv

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ice

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l:Pr

ogra

m Y

ear (

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get E

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son

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ty, S

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2

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onst

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asis)

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il W

orks

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ure

EST

IMA

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D C

OST

Estim

ate

Prep

ared

:

Page 27: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

****

TO

TAL

PRO

JECT

CO

ST S

UMM

ARY

****

Prin

ted:

12/6

/201

9 Pa

ge 3

of 6

File

nam

e: J

ohns

on C

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PCS_

2019

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3.xl

sxTP

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Alt 3

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, KY

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repo

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Page 28: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

****

TO

TAL

PRO

JECT

CO

ST S

UMM

ARY

****

Prin

ted:

12/6

/201

9 Pa

ge 4

of 6

File

nam

e: J

ohns

on C

ount

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PCS_

2019

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3.xl

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37

____

____

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ION

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CO

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OST

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:$9

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3$2

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7$1

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5$2

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64

TOTA

L PR

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CO

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ULL

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UN

DED

)

Estim

ate

Prep

ared

:Pr

ogra

m Y

ear (

Bud

get E

C):

Effe

ctiv

e Pr

ice

Leve

l:Ef

fect

ive

Pric

e Le

vel D

ate:

John

son

Cou

nty,

Sec

tion

202

Civ

il W

orks

Wor

k B

reak

dow

n St

ruct

ure

ESTI

MA

TED

CO

STPR

OJE

CT

FIR

ST C

OST

(Con

stan

t Dol

lar

Bas

is)

Page 29: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Sec 202 Project December 2019

29

ATTACHMENT D

ANNUALIZED COST SUMMARY

Page 30: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

29 | P a g e

ATTACHMENT D

ANNUALIZED COST SUMMARY

Page 31: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

PRESENTFUTURE WORTH PRESENT

YEAR WORTH FACTOR WORTH

1 119,700$ 0.97324 116,496$ 2 119,700$ 0.94719 113,378$ 3 119,700$ 0.92184 110,344$ 4 119,700$ 0.89717 107,391$ 5 131,040$ 0.87315 114,418$ 6 119,700$ 0.84978 101,719$ 7 119,700$ 0.82704 98,997$ 8 119,700$ 0.80491 96,347$ 9 119,700$ 0.78336 93,769$

10 131,040$ 0.76240 99,905$ 11 119,700$ 0.74199 88,817$ 12 119,700$ 0.72213 86,439$ 13 119,700$ 0.70281 84,126$

14 119,700$ 0.68400 81,874$

15 131,040$ 0.66569 87,232$ 16 119,700$ 0.64787 77,551$ 17 119,700$ 0.63053 75,475$ 18 119,700$ 0.61366 73,455$ 19 119,700$ 0.59723 71,489$ 20 131,040$ 0.58125 76,167$ 21 119,700$ 0.56569 67,714$ 22 119,700$ 0.55055 65,901$ 23 119,700$ 0.53582 64,138$ 24 119,700$ 0.52148 62,421$ 25 5,003,460$ 0.50752 2,539,362$ 26 119,700$ 0.49394 59,124$ 27 119,700$ 0.48072 57,542$ 28 119,700$ 0.46785 56,002$ 29 119,700$ 0.45533 54,503$ 30 131,040$ 0.44314 58,070$ 31 119,700$ 0.43128 51,625$ 32 119,700$ 0.41974 50,243$ 33 119,700$ 0.40851 48,898$ 34 119,700$ 0.39757 47,590$ 35 131,040$ 0.38693 50,704$ 36 119,700$ 0.37658 45,076$ 37 119,700$ 0.36650 43,870$ 38 119,700$ 0.35669 42,696$ 39 119,700$ 0.34714 41,553$ 40 131,040$ 0.33785 44,272$ 41 119,700$ 0.32881 39,359$ 42 119,700$ 0.32001 38,305$ 43 119,700$ 0.31144 37,280$ 44 119,700$ 0.30311 36,282$ 45 131,040$ 0.29500 38,656$ 46 119,700$ 0.28710 34,366$ 47 119,700$ 0.27942 33,446$ 48 119,700$ 0.27194 32,551$ 49 119,700$ 0.26466 31,680$ 50 131,040$ 0.25758 33,753$

SUM OF PRESENT WORTHS 10,970,820$ 5,762,371$ TOTAL ANNUAL COST 213,400$

NOTES: INTEREST RATE = 2.750%PROECT LIFE = 50

CAPITAL RECOVERY FACTOR = 0.03704091950

Johnson County 202 Alternatives SummaryANNUAL OPERATION & MAINTENANCE COST ESTIMATE (Oct '19 PL)

Alternatives 2 & 3

Page 32: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

30 | P a g e

ATTACHMENT E

OPERATION & MAINTENANCE COST SUMMARY

Page 33: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

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Page 34: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

O&

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Page 35: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

34 | P a g e

ATTACHMENT F

MAJOR REHAB CALCULATION

Page 36: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Sec 202 Project December 2019

34

ATTACHMENT F

MAJOR REHAB CALCULATION

Page 37: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

Johnson County, KY Volume 5 Section 202 Project Cost Estimate

35 | P a g e

ATTACHMENT G

CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE

Page 38: JOHNSON COUNTY KENTUCKY SECTION PROJECT · • PZ-22 Sheet pile cutoff underneath main portion of structure (across). Assume 80 ft deep. • Total Excavation assumed to be 18 ft diameter

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1

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John

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Date

: Fri

12/6

/19