john rogers. bottom-up modeling of sector-specific low carbon options and technologies. low carbon...

8/7/2019 John Rogers. Bottom-Up Modeling of Sector-Specific Low Carbon Options and Technologies. Low Carbon Development Planning.

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Low Carbon Development

Planning


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Projected annual total global emissions (billion tons of CO2 equivalent)

All countries must act now (but differently) to mitigate

emissions or the 2oC trajectory is out of reach

Low Carbon Studies:

Focused on high GHGemitters

Asked: Is there a lowcarbon option? Where is theGHG mitigation potential?

Looked at developmentobjectives

Determined how to lowercarbon footprints to 2030economically

Assessed financing needsand other requirements


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Smart DevelopmentInvolves a portfolio of cross sector adaptation and mitigation measures

Low Carbon Studies:

Need cross sectorapproach

It will require strongcommitments and newtechnology, finance andcapacity

National (cross ministry)

coordination essential

Countries must addressdifficult barriers

It is not an easy process


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Low Carbon Development cannot be

achieved without a proper enabling

environment

Efficiency standards; codes, zoning; climate screening/

proofing of investments

Improve investment climate; deepen financial and capital

markets; new markets (cap & trade, CDM)

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Rationalize energy, water and agricultural price, tax

incentives, fiscal and expenditure policiesIncentives

Education, raising awareness and promoting change in

consumer behavior and preferences

Public Outreach

Capacity of public, private and financial sector institutions

to assess and act on climate risksInstitutions

Public Outreach

Regulations

Markets


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Required Data

Private Sector

International

Other Governmental Bodies

Ministry of Environment

Ministry of Energy

Utilities (public and private)

The Energy Commission

Regulators

Energy Institutes and Academia

Load Dispatch Centre

Planning Commissions

UNFCCC Focal Point

Designated National Authorities

Donors

Power Transmission and Distribution Companies

Oil and Gas Companies

International Finance Institutions

Types of Data and where to find it (Power sector only)

The Institutional Process

and Power SectorChallenges

Renewable Energy Policies andPrograms

Supply Side Data

Demand SideData

Oil and Gas SectorData

Greenhouse Gas EmissionData


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Involves

Multiple

Stakeholders

Table 1 - Principal stakeholders involved in developing Indias First National Communication

Planning Commission

Ministries

Ministry of Agriculture

Ministry of Coal

Ministry of Environment & Forests

Ministry of External AffairsMinistry of Finance

Ministry of Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises

Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources

Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas

Ministry of Power

Ministry of Road Transport & Highways

Ministry of Science & Technology

Councils

Confederation of Indian Industry

Council of Scientific and Industrial Research

Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and

Industry

Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR)

Indian Council of Medical Research

National Council for Cement and Building Materials

Associations

Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry

Cement Manufacturers Association

Laboratories

Forest Survey of India

India Meteorological Departmen

India Meteorology Department

Indian Space Research OrganisationNational Chemical Laboratory

National Physical Laboratory

Regional Research Laboratory

Remote Sensing Applications Centre

NGOs and Centers

Centre for Environment Education

Centre for Inter-Disciplinary Studies of Mountain and

Hill Environment

Centre for Sustainable Technologies

Development Alternatives

Integrated Research and Action for Development

Integrated Research and Action for DevelopmentMalaria Research Centre

Nehru Foundation for Development

Institutes

Central Fuel Research Institute

Central Glass and Ceramic Research Institute

Central Leather Research Institute

Central Mining Research Institute

Central Rice Research Institute

Central Road Research Institute

Forest Research Institute

G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment &

Development

Indian Agricultural Research Institute

Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal

Indian Institute of Management

Indian Institute of Petroleum

Indian Institute of Science

Indian Institute of TechnologyIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research

Institute for Social and Economic Change

Institute of Radio-physics and Electronics

Kerala Forest Research Institute

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology

National Dairy Research Institute

National Environmental Engineering Research Institute

National Institute of Advanced Studies

National Institute of Oceanography

The Energy and Resources Institute

Wildlife Institute of IndiaUniversities

Aligarh Muslim University

Jadavpur University

Jawaharlal Nehru University

School of Environmental Management

Tamil Nadu Agricultural University

Tripura University

University of Agricultural Sciences

University of Delhi

Principalstakeholders

involved indevelopingIndias First

National

Communication


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Several Tools are needed to answer the

questionsand prepare a LCD plan

Abatement Opportunities

Technologies / Investment

Marginal Abatement Cost

Etc

Bottom-up vs. Top-down

Impact on Employment

Impact on Taxes

Impact on Trade

Etc

EFFECT

TAMTMACtool

LULUCF

Multi-region

CGE

Dynamic

Stochastic

GE


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In this presentation we will cover

EFFECT

Energy Forecasting Framework & Emissions ConsensusTool

MACtool

Marginal Abatement Cost ToolTAMT

Transport Activity Measurement Toolkit

LULUCF

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Modeling

Linking Bottom-up with Top-down

Linking Macroeconomic and Bottom-Up Models


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How to EFFECTLow Carbon Development


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What is EFFECT?

Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model

Supports consensus building and planning in keysectors of the economy

Helps assess the impact of policy choices on GHG

emission levels

Used in Brazil, India, Poland, and six Asian-Pacific

countries

Energy Forecasting Framework & Emissions Consensus Tool


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Current modules

Transport IndustryPower

Households Non-residential


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EFFECT covers sectors of greatest growth

in GHG emissions


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How does EFFECT Support Low Carbon

Development?

Consensus Building:

Economy-wide development and climate changegoals

Data and assumptions Best choice for a LCD pathway or plan for the future

Inclusive Structure:

Targets decision-makers, planners and modelers

Supports engagement on model inputs and analysis


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How does EFFECT Support Low Carbon

Development?

Multi-sector focus: Power Generation

On-Road Transport

Household Electricity Use

Nonresidential Energy Use Large-Scale Energy Intensive Industry

Scenario Planning: Develop emissions forecasts over a 25-year+ period

Prioritize GHG emission reduction Design development and investment plans

Identify conditions necessary for a supportive, enablingenvironment for implementation


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Low Carbon Development cannot be achieved

without a proper enabling environment

Efficiency standards; codes, zoning; climate screening/

proofing of investments

Improve investment climate; deepen financial and capital

markets; new markets (cap & trade, CDM)

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Rationalize energy, water and agricultural price, tax

incentives, fiscal and expenditure policiesIncentives

Education, raising awareness and promoting change in

consumer behavior and preferences

Public Outreach

Capacity of public, private and financial sector institutions

to assess and act on climate risksInstitutions

Public Outreach

Regulations

Markets


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EFFECT Ecosystem

The EFFECT Model

Freely downloadable from WB website

e-Learning Courses

How to EFFECT Low Carbon Development:

For Policymakers The Power Module

The Transport Module

The Household Module

Supporting Materials 15 Minute Overview

Help Function built-into Excel

LCD Simulation Game

Additional material from LCD studies


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eLearning Courses

http://vle.worldbank.org/moodle/course/view.php?id=500
http://vle.worldbank.org/moodle/course/view.php?id=500


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EFFECT Model Tutorial


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MACtoolA tool to support the economicanalysis of low-carbon options


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Objective

Simultaneous comparison of Mitigationand Sequestration Options

To support efficient decision makingprocesses

Prototypical version developed for the Brazil Low-carbonstudy

Four main sectors, more than 40 technologies from boththe Brazil and the Mexico Low-carbon studies


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Marginal abatement costs/benefits for Mexico

(UDS/t CO2e accumulative 2009 2030)

Busrapidtransit

Bussystemoptimization

Non-motorizedtransport

Freightlogistics

Urbandensification

Bordervehicleinspection

Railwayfreight

Streetlighting

Non-residentiallighting

Gasflaring

Residentiallighting

Utilityefficiency

Industrialmotors

Non-residentialAC

Residentialrefrigeration

Fueleconomystandards

Charcoalforsteelmaking

Solarwaterheating

Zerotillagemaize

Charcoalkilns

I&Min21cities

Improvedcookstoves

GasLeakageReduction

Cogenerationinindustry

CogenerationinPEMEX

ResidentialAC

Biogas

Windpower

REDD

Palmoilbiodiesel

Afforestation

Bagassecogeneration

Fuelwoodco-firing(20%)

Reforestation&restoration

Geothermal

Sugarcaneethanol

Smallhydro

Biomasselectricity

Sorghumethanol

Refineryefficiency

150

100

50

0

50

100

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Mitig

ationbenefits

Mitig

ationcosts

[US$/tonCO2e]

Cumulative mitigation 2009-2030 [Mton CO2e]


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Investment Required in Mexico

for each MAC Intervention (2009 2030)

Busrapidtransit

Bussystemoptimization

Non-motorizedtransp

ort

Freightlogis

tics

Urbandensification

Bordervehicleinspection

Railwayfre

ight

Streetligh

ting

Non-residentiallighting

Gasflaring

Residentiallighting

Utilityefficiency

Industrialmotors

Non-residentialAC

Residentialrefrigeration

Fueleconomystandards

Charcoalforsteelmaking

Solarwaterheating

Zerotillagemaize

Charcoalk

ilns

I&Min21cities

Improvedcookstoves

GasLeakageReduction

Cogenerationinindustry

CogenerationinPEM

EX

Residentia

lAC

Biogas

Windpower

REDD

Palmoilbiodiesel

Afforesta

tion

Bagassecogeneration

Fuelwoodco-firing(20%)

Reforestation&restoration

Geothermal

Sugarcaneetha

nol

Smallh

ydro

Biomasselectricity

Sorghumethanol

Refineryefficie

ncy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Cumulative mitigation 2009-2030 [Mton CO2e]

New

investmentcosts[US$/tonCO2e]


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Source of investment: Public vs. Private in Mexico

for each MAC Intervention (2009 2030)

Net costs

Net benefits


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Designed for

Systematic, rigorous and consistent information aggregation to

allow the comparison for:

Different sectors and mitigation/sequestration options

(Energy, LULUCF, Transport, Waste Management)

Different perspectives: Public and Private

Different Countries, Regions, or Cities

Generate also sector specific information that speaks to usualsector authorities, sector public agencies, MDB sector staff

examples:

Installed power generation capacity for both the reference and the low-carbonscenarios

Volume of load transported by mode in for both the reference and the low-carbon

scenarios


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Progress

Prototypical version already used in the Brazil Low-

carbon Study

User interface development by June 2011

Auditing: module by module by May 2011

MACtool operational mid 2011

Training programme over 2011 - 2012


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TAMTTransport Activity Measurement Toolkit

19/04/2011


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Its all about how to get from

this


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To this..

GHG and local pollutant inventories at:

National

City

Project levels

and scenario based

emissions forecasting

for distinct interventions


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Using GHG and local emissions models

There are many good models that require

local data on vehicle activity

TAMT will help local practitioners collect this

in a simple standardized manner

Image thanks to Colin K. Hughes, Institute of Transport & Development Policy


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Transport Activity Measurement

Toolkit (TAMT) consists of:

Practitioners Guide That answers questions in a practical way:

What to measure

When to measure How to measure

How many to measure

Forms

Quality Assurance and Quality control guides

Software tools to simplify data entry and processing For GPS collection and analysis

For traffic counts and analysis


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The Complexity Cube

but all require activity measurements


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Using GPS to measure travel time and

speed distribution in 5 km/h bins

Low cost GPS loggers (US$50 -80)

On different road types

For different days/times Different vehicle categories

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Vehicles per hour

Minutes per km


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TAMT software overview

Platform independent

Oracle VirtualBox client

TAMT Appliance

Operating system: Ubuntu 10.04

Database: PostgreSQL with PostGIS extensions and PL/Java for storedprocedures; pgAdmin3 as database administration user interface

Web Container: Apache Tomcat 6.0 - HTTP server and Servlet

container supporting Java Servlet 2.5 and JavaServer? Pages (JSP) 2.1.

Software development kits: Java 1.5

Integrated development environments: Eclipse 3.5.1 with GooglePlugin for Eclipse

Internet browsers: Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox

Project documentation and downloads

On code.google.comhttp://code.google.com/p/tamt/wiki/DesignDocIntroduction
http://code.google.com/p/tamt/w/edit/JavaServerhttp://code.google.com/p/tamt/wiki/DesignDocIntroductionhttp://code.google.com/p/tamt/wiki/DesignDocIntroductionhttp://code.google.com/p/tamt/wiki/DesignDocIntroductionhttp://code.google.com/p/tamt/w/edit/JavaServer


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Steps to get an activity-based GHG and

local pollutant emissions inventory

Divide routes into sections

with consistent traffic patterns

Measure traffic flow on each section

by Day, Hour and Vehicle Class

Measure traffic speed and drive cyclescongested / uncongested flow

Measure Vehicle occupancy

to get passenger-km and freight-tonne-km

Use fleet composition data

Vehicle sales and registration data

Emissions test databases / Surveys

Use emissions (and traffic) models

to calculate GHG and local pollutant

emissions inventories and forecasts

5

3

2

1

4

T

AM

T

6


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With TAMT

Use low cost GPS loggers in normal vehicleoperation

Collect second-by-second data

TAMT will automatically:

Assign to road tags by vehicle type and time

of day Perform vehicle flow-weighted calculations

Output in format required by model


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Using YouTube for Help and Demos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dVWIKafmSE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dVWIKafmSE


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Land Use,Land Use Changeand Forestry Modeling

Prototypical version

developed and road-tested

under the Brazil Low Carbon

Country Case Study


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LULUCF MODELLING

Three main steps:

1) Calculation of the Available Area for agricultural

expansion

2) Simulation model of spatial Land Use Change(2010 - 2030)

3) Model for GHG Emissions as a function ofLand Use Change


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1. CALCULATION OF AVAILABLE LANDFOR AGRICULTURE EXPANSION


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2. SPATIALLY EXPLICIT SIMULATIONMODEL FOR LAND USE CHANGE

(2010 - 2030)

Partial Equilibrium Model to project Land Needed


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Partial Equilibrium Model to project Land Needed

(BLUM model, developed with ICONE)

Source: ICONE.

Domestic

consumption

Demand

Supply

Price

Costs

Expected

return

Net exports

Final stocks

Production

Initial stocks

Yields

Area(t-1)

L d U M d li


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Land Use Modeling:

Interactions Among Sub Sectors

Cotton

Rice

Drybean

Corn

SoybeanSoybean meal

Soybean oil

Sugarcane

Ethanol

Sugar

Beef

Pork

Poultry (eggs and

chicken)

Pasture

Industry and

biodiesel

Source: ICONE

L d U d L d USIM Brasil


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Land Use and Land Use

Change Modeling resultsSIM Brasil

(CSR UFMG)


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Linking Macroeconomic and

Bottom-Up ModelsA suite of models to assess carbon

abatement


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ROCA Model

Multi-region CGEPeer-reviewed modelapplied to Poland

Impact of EU 20-20-20package

MEMOModel

Dynamic stochasticGE

Poland model +energy and climateredesign

Macro impact ofoptions

MicroMACCurve TREMOVEPlus Model

Marginal abatement cost

(NPV cost per tCO2e)

~125 technology options

TREMOVE model

(road transport)

Passenger, freight

MacroMAC

curve

Model suite for low carbon growth assessment

for Poland


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Microeconomic marginal abatement cost (MicroMAC)

curve for Poland, 2030

Note: Each column is one of the 123 abatement measures. The height of the columns is the cost in per abated tCO2e. The width is the

amount emissions can be reduced against business-as-usual levels projected for 2030. Some measures are shown with net benefits

(negative costs).

Nuclear

Biomass co-firing

Coal CCS

On-shore wind

Iron & Steel CCS, new built

Biogas

Chemicals CCS, retrofit

Iron & Steel CCS, retrofit

New built efficiency package,residential

Gasoline LDV effectiveness

Recycling new waste

Diesel LDV effectiveness

Retrofit building envelope, commercial

Basic retrofit buildingenvelope, residential

Organic soilsrestoration

Cogeneration

Biomass dedicated

Off-shore windAverage cost:~10 EUR/tCO2e

0

907060504030 230220210

20

20020 19017016015014012011010010

Emission abatement costEUR/tCO2e

-90

-70

180130

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-140

-130

-120

-150

-110

-100

-10

80

70

60

50

30

40

800

10

Landfill gas electricitygeneration

Advanced retrofit building enveloperesidential

CCS in downstream

Abatement potentialMtCO2e in 2030


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The switch to low-carbon energy and fuel efficiency

measures provide the bulk of GHG abatement.

Decomposition of abatement by micro-package,

MtCO2e

Note: Model closure is increase in VAT.

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

milliontonsofCO2e

agriculture

industry CCS

chemical processoptimization

energy efficiency

fuel efficiency

mixed energy/fuel

efficiency

energy sectorinvestments

BAU

Low Carbon Path

Micro packages with the largest abatement potential


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Micro-packages with the largest abatement potential

do not necessarily impose the biggest macroeconomic

cost.

Decomposition of GDP impact of low carbon package, in %

Note: Change in real GDP is measured against business-as-usual scenario.

Categories are micro-packages (mitigation options grouped by economic

characteristics).

-1.5-1.8

-0.8

0.2

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2015 2020 2025 2030

chemical process

optimization

mixed energy/fuel

efficiency

agriculture interventions

industry CCS and distrib.

maintainance

energy efficiency

fuel efficiency

energy sector investments

GDP deviation from BAU


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Macroeconomic marginal abatement cost

MacroMAC curve, 2030

Note: Each column is one of the 119 abatement measures. The height of the columns is the marginal abatement impact in percent

of GDP (for each percent of GHG abatement) compared to business-as-usual in 2030. The width is the percent emissions can be

reduced. The area of any rectangle equals the GDP effect (loss or gain) of carbon abatement via any specific lever.


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Take-away messages on modeling

Consensus building needs data and assumptions to beopenly and transparently shared

Data gathering takes time but is foundation for futureresults monitoring

You need a suite of different models to answer differentquestions

Build on existing proven approaches and models

Build capacity to maintain and update scenarios andmodels


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Thank You

John Rogers

[email protected]

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

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