John Harrington, Jr.RII-Track 1: 2009 - 2014 NSF Award No. EPS-0903806) PHASE VI: Climate Change and Energy: Basic Science, Impacts, and Mitigation

Susan WahlRII-Track 2: 2009 - 2012 NSF Award No. EPS-0919443 Collaborative Research: EPSCoR RII Track 2 Oklahoma and Kansas: A cyberCommons for Ecological Forecasting

The extent of the gallery forest on Konza Prairie Biological Station increased 70% from 162 ha in 1939 to 274 ha in 2002

Social Ecological Systems efforts sponsored by Kansas NSF EPSCoR:Climate Change & Energy

BiofuelsImpacts & Adaptation

cyberCommonsWoody Invasion

Ecological ForecastingUnderstanding Land Cover

Change

Climate Change and Energy: Basic Science, Impacts, and

Mitigation

The IPCC Working Group format of Science, Impacts & Adaptation, and Mitigation was used to help conceptualize the

integration

NSF EPSCoREcological

Forecasting

Stakeholder InterviewsStakeholder InterviewsSummer 2007Summer 2007

36 semi-structured interviews of 36 semi-structured interviews of farmers/ranchers & local farmers/ranchers & local specialists across the specialists across the Kansas/Republican River basin Kansas/Republican River basin

Major goals Major goals Learn from local stakeholders Learn from local stakeholders Understand the drivers of land Understand the drivers of land

use changeuse change Identify the main information Identify the main information

sources that inform decisions to sources that inform decisions to alter land usealter land use

Human Dimensions funding for:a new faculty member Dr. Kendra McLauchlan Dr. Marcellus Caldus

Drivers of Land Use ChangeDrivers of Land Use Change Economics / business as usualEconomics / business as usual New land uses or management practiceNew land uses or management practice Responses to short-term variationsResponses to short-term variations Technological applicationsTechnological applications

While the economy is ‘king,’ there is an While the economy is ‘king,’ there is an underlying underlying ethic of land stewardshipethic of land stewardship

Larger parcels or parcels that are closer Larger parcels or parcels that are closer together together are seen as desirable for are seen as desirable for adoption of new practicesadoption of new practices

Early adopters are very important in the Early adopters are very important in the eventual eventual adoption of new adoption of new practices/technologies by a practices/technologies by a majority majority of the land user populationof the land user population

Information SourcesInformation Sources

Producers Producers SpecialistsSpecialists There is a need to think it There is a need to think it

through (reason) through (reason) The process involves The process involves

considerable synthesisconsiderable synthesis What they see on the landWhat they see on the land

It is important that they “can It is important that they “can see it working” locallysee it working” locally

NeighborsNeighbors Demonstration plotsDemonstration plots

What they hear [face-to-face]What they hear [face-to-face] At the coffee shopAt the coffee shop From an agronomist/extension From an agronomist/extension

agentagent Information that they consumeInformation that they consume

Trade publicationsTrade publications NewslettersNewsletters Radio/TelevisionRadio/Television Internet Internet

What they know What they know [tradition/experience][tradition/experience]

Higher ups – in their Higher ups – in their organizationorganizationTrade publicationsTrade publicationsProfessional journals Professional journals (by some)(by some)E-mailE-mailInternetInternet

Feds – information Feds – information stream from within the stream from within the agency – some are able agency – some are able to filter the info stream to filter the info stream for local conditionsfor local conditions

National standards National standards with some ability to with some ability to make local make local adjustmentsadjustments

Extension – more Extension – more universal access to a universal access to a variety of information variety of information sourcessources

Communication Channels for Communication Channels for Information Flow Information Flow

to Land Use and Cover Change to Land Use and Cover Change Decision MakersDecision Makers

Oral Oral face-to-face, ag radio face-to-face, ag radio Observations Observations neighbors, neighbors,

demonstration plots, demonstration plots, field daysfield days Electronic Electronic Internet Internet Written Written Trade publications, local Trade publications, local

newspaper, newspaper, newsletters, extension newsletters, extension bulletinsbulletins

ConclusionsConclusions Limited sample sizeLimited sample size Economics is the main concernEconomics is the main concern Specialists suggest that on-going/recent Specialists suggest that on-going/recent

changes are changes are no-till management, residential, no-till management, residential, or recreation usesor recreation uses

In order to influence change, there is a need In order to influence change, there is a need to to communicate with key producers in a communicate with key producers in a regionregion

New information (e.g., global change) needs New information (e.g., global change) needs to be to be tailored to local conditions and tailored to local conditions and introduced by introduced by trusted local information trusted local information providersproviders

For specialists, local experience results in an For specialists, local experience results in an increased ability to tailor information to increased ability to tailor information to match match local conditionslocal conditions

While producers anticipate variability, they While producers anticipate variability, they are are vulnerable to change (BAU mindset)vulnerable to change (BAU mindset)

Nitrogen load (Kg/ha) entering the river

Designing ResilienceDesigning Resilience

GRA Beau BurkittSWAT modeling3 scenarios:Commodity productionWater qualityBiodiversity

Joan Nassauer

The LTER Social Science Workshopin Athens, GA (Aug 3-5, 2005)

Four fundamental and cross-cutting questions were identified:

1. What are the human dimensions of an LTER site?

2. How do people and organizations influence the spatial and temporal scale of environmental conditions?

3. What affects the distribution of ecological goods and services across spatial and temporal scales?

4. What role does science have in environmental decision-making?

Disturbance RegimesPress: land-use change and landscape conversion; directional climate change; nutrient enrichment

Pulse: increased climate variability (storms/floods; periodic droughts)

Biotic StructurePlant community structure (species, lifeform, LAI, grassland/woodland conversion); consumer communities/foodwebs; microbial communities; native/non-native interactions; landscape structure; biodiversity

Ecosystem FunctionTerrestrial and aquatic productivity; decomposition rates; net C exchange; nutrient cycling; hydrologic coupling of terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems; ground water/surface water interactions

Ecosystem ServicesRangeland quality/productivity; water quality/quantity; biodiversity maintenance; disease regulation; wildlife conservation ; aesthetic values

Human BehaviorDemographic shifts; changes in land- and water-use; regulatory action

Q1Q2

Q3

Q4

Q5

Q1: How do long-term changes in land-use (rangeland, agricultural, residential uses) interact with directional climate change and short-term climate variability (storms, droughts) to alter ecosystem structure and function in the Flint Hills? Q2: How are feedbacks between ecosystem processes (productivity, decomposition, nutrient cycling, hydrology) and biotic structure (land cover, vegetation structure, consumer, microbial communities, biodiversity) affected by land-use change and climatic variability? What is the influence of changing landscape structure on these feedbacks?Q3: How does altered biotic structure and function affect regional ecosystem services (rangeland quality/productivity, water quality/quantity, biodiversity maintenance, disease regulation, wildlife conservation, aesthetic values)?Q4: How does the human population of the Flint Hills perceive and respond to changes in ecosystem goods and services (e.g., water quality, non-native species, biodiversity losses, etc.)?Q5: How do humans decisions and actions affect land- and water-use in the Flint Hills and responses to current and future climatic variability?

Flint Hills Socio-Ecological System

Regional DriversClimate;Regional economy and human demography;

Human OutcomesHealth-related risks; economic security; cultural identity; science literacy

KNZ Human Dimensions Efforts

Agrarian TransitionA look at the rural sociology and A look at the rural sociology and environmental history related to environmental history related to agricultural changes in the Flint agricultural changes in the Flint HillsHills

US per capita beef consumption and Flint Hills cattle inventory

The LTER Ecosystem Services Workshop (May 2007)The LTER Ecosystem Services Workshop (May 2007)

Assess ecosystem services for our LTER site, then select six critical ecosystem services:

1. supporting - primary production - to grow grass for cattle

2. provisioning – food- beef

3. provisioning - genetic diversity -Konza Prairie and the Tall Grass Prairie Preserve as sites to 'save' or 'bank' the species of the region

4. cultural – inspirational- books, music about the region

5. cultural - aesthetic - photography (Apr 2007 Natl Geog), viewing prairie fires, night sky viewing

6. cultural - ecotourism - scenic drives and the TG Prairie Preserve

NSF has made supplemental funding available to the LTER Network for adding a human dimensions component and ‘extending the inference’

KNZ has been heavily involved in SES supplemental activities

A decade of human dimensions work

I’ve learned the importance of mixed methods I’ve learned the importance of mixed methods approaches that add understanding to data-approaches that add understanding to data-based explanations.based explanations.

There is a tendency for non-social scientists to There is a tendency for non-social scientists to think that social scientists come in ‘one size fits think that social scientists come in ‘one size fits all.’all.’

The ecosystem services concept and land cover The ecosystem services concept and land cover change are useful approachs for addressing the change are useful approachs for addressing the status and on-going changes in a landscape. status and on-going changes in a landscape.

My ecologist colleagues are interested in My ecologist colleagues are interested in expanding their work to include a human expanding their work to include a human dimensions component.dimensions component.

NSF has been reluctant to build human dimensions NSF has been reluctant to build human dimensions funding into existing programs (e.g., LTER funding into existing programs (e.g., LTER funding).funding).

There is a growing pool of funds, typically new There is a growing pool of funds, typically new programs at NSF, for Biocomplexity, SES, programs at NSF, for Biocomplexity, SES, CHANS and now SEES projects.CHANS and now SEES projects.

Global Change: Some Concluding Thoughts

TheBottleneck

Because complex systems science based approaches are relatively new ways to conceptualize the Earth, the citizens of out planet face huge challenges for the several generations.

All organisms change their All organisms change their immediate environment. immediate environment.

We have changed things –what should we do?

who should provide the leadership? when should we

change?““To change something, build a new To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model model that makes the existing model obsolete.”obsolete.”

Buckminster FullerBuckminster Fuller

““Never doubt that a small group of Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”thing that ever has.”

Margaret Mead Margaret Mead