joel kotkin after the bubble and beyond
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Presentation by Joel KotkinPresidential Fellow, Chapman University, Senior Consultant Praxis Strategy GroupNational Conference on Corporate Community Investment Business Civic Leadership Center, US Chamber of Commerce.Anaheim, CAApril 29, 2009TRANSCRIPT
Back to Basics: After the Bubble and BeyondBack to Basics:
After the Bubble and Beyond
Presentation by Joel KotkinPresidential Fellow, Chapman University
National Conference on Corporate Community Investment Business Civic Leadership Center, US Chamber of Commerce.Anaheim, CAApril 29, 2009
Rise and Fall of Cities and RegionsRise and Fall of Cities and Regions
“Human prosperity
does not abide long in
one place”
Herodotus Greek Historian 5th Century BC
Key Factors for DeclineKey Factors for Decline
• Inability to absorb newcomers• Lack of upward mobility• Inattention to basic infrastructure• Decline of Family• Loss of Moral Compass
• Inability to absorb newcomers• Lack of upward mobility• Inattention to basic infrastructure• Decline of Family• Loss of Moral Compass
Families as History’s Bedrock
“…the good news from the recovered history of the family: This smallest and seemingly most fragile of institutions is proving itself to be mankind’s bedrock as well as its fault line .” --- historian Steven Ozment
The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.”
The Cosmopolitan CityThe Cosmopolitan City
French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and
London in the early Modern Period
Ibn Khaldun14th Century Arab historian
“Attacks on people’s property remove the incentive to acquire and gain property”
Beyond elitism: Jane Jacobs on the
proper role of an urban economy
Beyond elitism: Jane Jacobs on the
proper role of an urban economy
“A metropolitan economy, if it is working well, is constantly
transforming many poor people into middle class
people ...greenhorns into competent citizens... Cities
don’t lure the middle class, they create it”
Arts and Culture: Arts and Culture: A Look Back in TimeA Look Back in Time
• Great Cultural Centers generally rest upon commercial success
• Venice, Florence, Amsterdam, London, New York, Los Angeles all became cultural centers after developing an expanding economy and strong middle class
• Patrons of arts, not the public, key to development of cultural institutions from Macenas to the Medici, Carnegie and the Rockefellers of the 20th Century to today’s multi-billionaires
The Key to the first Great CityThe Key to the first Great City
“The Greeks boasted of their ‘useless’ art and Egypt’s legacy lay in idle pyramids, but what were these compared to the fourteen aqueducts that brought water to Rome?”
A Roman Historian
America’s Talent: Laying Foundation
of the Future
America’s Talent: Laying Foundation
of the Future• National Road proposed by
Jefferson (1806)• Period of Canal Building (1800-1850)• Construction of Railroads (1840-
1900)• Carnegie Libraries• New Deal infrastructure program• Interstate Highways (1930-1970)• Airports, Telecommunications
US : Forgetting the Basics US : Forgetting the Basics Average Public Capital Value and U.S. Population Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1960 1970 1980 1990 19990
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
Percent "Core Infrastructure" Capital Value
Growth (scale left)
US Population (scale right)
Sources: Demographia (2006) and Calvert-Henderson (2006)
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1917
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
1997
Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending
Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending
The top decile income share, 1917 - 2002
Identifying Key Trends for the 21st Century
Identifying Key Trends for the 21st Century
• No simple formula for success and there are almost always exceptions to every rule
• Youthful population :America’s opportunity and challenge
• Many cities in danger of becoming less relevant to economy, middle class
• Need to focus on sustainable and family friendly environment
• A renewed commitment to long-term competitiveness rather than addiction to bubble economics
• Class, not race the key issue for the next decade
Long Term Demographics—The Recent Past
Long Term Demographics—The Recent Past
Annual Average Population Growth, 1997-2007
Source: U.S. Census International Database
Long Term Demographics—The Advanced Countries
Long Term Demographics—The Advanced Countries
Projected Population Growth, 2007-2050
Source: U.S. Census International Database
Getting Older SlowerGetting Older Slower
Population Over 65
Source: U.S. Census International Database
Limits of Hip UrbanismLimits of Hip Urbanism
• Difficult city administration forces businesses to periphery
• Inattention to basic urban infrastructure• Lack of focus on expanding middle class
• Difficult city administration forces businesses to periphery
• Inattention to basic urban infrastructure• Lack of focus on expanding middle class
The Ephemeral City: The Future of
the Core?
The Ephemeral City: The Future of
the Core?
“a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of
concourse and rendezvous.”
H.G. Wells — description of urban centers in the future
Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: A Model for America’s cities?
Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: A Model for America’s cities?
Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin
Kevin Starr on San Francisco
“Poor but sexy."
“A cross between Carmel and Calcutta”
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
San Francisco
Seattle
Boston
Washington
Denver
New York
Los Angeles
Houston
Phoenix
United States
2000 1990
Cities without ChildrenCities without ChildrenPercent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S. Cities
Charlotte, NC-SC
Portland, OR-WA
Denver, CO
Minneapolis, MN-WI
Seattle, WA
Phoenix, AZ
Riverside, CA
San Francisco, CA
Boston, MA-NH
Detroit, MI
Atlanta, GA
Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV
Houston, TX
Miami, FL
Dallas, TX
Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD Chicago,IL-IN-WI
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY-NJ-PA-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Immigration rate 2000-2005
Do
me
stic
Mig
ratio
n R
ate
20
00
-20
05
Average Domestic Migration: -.17%
Average Immigration Rate: 3.55%
Bubble size indicates total population
Domestic Migration Rate vs. Immigration RateDomestic Migration Rate vs. Immigration Rate2000-2005
Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates Program
Net Domestic MigrationNet Domestic MigrationAverage Annual Rate, 1990-1999 & 2000-2007
Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census American CommunitySurvey Public Use Micro data Files
Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates compiled by Demographia.com
Growth in Nation’s Employment CentersGrowth in Nation’s Employment CentersGrowth in Total Employment, 2000-2007
Source: Praxis Strategy Group analysis of BLS CES Data, Top 10 Largest Locations
Growth in Nation’s Employment CentersGrowth in Nation’s Employment CentersGrowth in Professional & Business Service Employment, 2000-2007
Source: Michael Shires analysis of BLS CES Data, Top 10 Largest Locations
Bubble Trouble
Affordability Index Between Leading Dynamic Regions
Affordability Index Between Leading Dynamic Regions
Source: National Association of Homebuilders
Housing Opportunity Index, Q2 2007
(Share of homes affordable for median family income)
Home Prices vs. PayHome Prices vs. PayRatio of Home Price Growth vs. Annual Average Pay Growth, 2001 - 2005
The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl”The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl”
• Housing near jobs• Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets• Provision of open space around the village core and
housing estates- • Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl
• Housing near jobs• Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets• Provision of open space around the village core and
housing estates- • Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl
U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas
Peo
ple
(mill
ions
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999
Suburban Urban Rural
1950-1999Millions
Growth to the PeripheryGrowth to the PeripheryShare of total Population growthShare of total Population growth
Metro regions of more than 1,000,000 population, 2000 - 2006Metro regions of more than 1,000,000 population, 2000 - 2006
Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates Program, Compiled by Demographia.com
Where Americans Would Like To Live Where Americans Would Like To Live
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Small town notnear a city
Rural area
Not sure
Large city
Suburb nearlarge city
Fannie Mae, 1998
What People Want: There are small specialized niches and larger ones
What People Want: There are small specialized niches and larger ones
• 83 percent want this kind of dwelling (National Association of Home Builders)
• 86 percent in California (PPIC)• 70% or more of downshifting
boomers “retiring in place” or staying suburban study
• About as many empty nesters heading to countryside as headed to city
• 40% expect kids to move back at some point
• Latinos highest percentage ethnicity to prefer single family home: most immigrants now in suburbs
• Focus: suburbs,exurbs, safe “neighborhoods” in closer, attractive areas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Northeast Midwest West South
Mean three -mile share Mean 10-mile share
Jobs Head outJobs Head out
Source: Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and Chenghuan Chu, “Job Sprawl: Employment in US Metropolitan Areas”, Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001
Percentage of Metropolitan area employment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
02Q3 02Q4 03Q1 03Q2 03Q3 03Q4 04Q1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 05Q1 05Q2 05Q3
Downtown Suburbs
National Office ConstructionNational Office ConstructionSq. Ft. x Millions
Source: cbre
Portland Job Growth in Periphery
Source: Demographia.com, Derived from US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Portland Alliance data
• Walkable environments with shopping and work opportunities
• A sense of neighborhood and place• Greater access to public transit• A way to be within a great metropolitan
area but with the ambience, amenity of a small town
• A partner to single family homes, not a threat
(Sub)Urban Villages: A New Vision to
encourage economic growth
(Sub)Urban Villages: A New Vision to
encourage economic growth
Examples of New Suburban Villages Examples of New
Suburban Villages
• Downtown Fullerton
• Naperville, Illinois
• Woodlands, TX
Towards GreenurbiaTowards Greenurbia
• Create greenways for wildlife as well as separation of communities• Use multi-polar structure to keep jobs closer to where people live• Promote home-based full time part time work for both environmental
and social reasons
Rethinking Density Rethinking Density
• Low/mid-density using proper design and landscaping may use less water and energy
• Reducing “heat islands” — overdense development in London and Los Angeles can lead to urban centers being 3°C higher than outlying areas
• Learning from ancient cities like Shiraz in how to design largely low-rise housing to maximize natural cooling and reduce evaporation
• Following employment growth, using telecom may be far more effective than imposing a draconian, market-unfriendly planning regime
Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type
Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
High-Rise Mid-Rise Low -Rise Tow nhouse &Villas
Detached Average
Per Person Per Dwelling
Tonnes CO2/Person/Year Tonnes CO2/Dwelling/Year
Institute of Public Affairs
1960 - 2000 Decennial Census, 2006 American Community Survey
Working at HomeWorking at HomeNumber working from home, 1970 - 2006Number working from home, 1970 - 2006
Would you take a pay cut to work in the immediate area where you live?
50% of workers said they would take a20% pay cut to a take a job in their local area.
Source: The Newhall Land Company
The Valencia, California, Survey 2001The Valencia, California, Survey 2001
What We Lost: the Pre-industrial CityWhat We Lost: the Pre-industrial City
“The biggest jolt the Industrial Revolution administered to the Western family was the progressive removal of work from the home.”
— Dr. Peter N. Stearns, historian
Back to the Future: The Post-Industrial CityBack to the Future: The Post-Industrial City
If the electronic cottage was to spread, a chain of consequences of great importance would flow through society. Many of these consequences would please the most ardent environmentalist or techno-rebel, while at the same time opening up new options for business entrepreneurship
— Alvin Toffler,The Third Wave
The Biggest Challenge: The Issue of Class
The Biggest Challenge: The Issue of Class
• Growth of poorly educated newcomers and youngsters poses a unique problem, particularly with the end of the property boom
• High drop-out rates in high schools can guarantee the rise of an underclass
• Economic development needs to focus on upward mobility — not “luring” the middle class, but creating one”
Education Is a Key Part of the Education Is a Key Part of the Upward Mobility EngineUpward Mobility Engine
Education attainedMedian weekly
earnings in 2005
Unemployment rate in 2005
(Dollars) (Percent)
Some high-school, no diploma 409 7.6
High-school graduate 583 4.7
Some college, no degree 653 4.2
Associate degree 699 3.3
Bachelor's degree 937 2.6
Master's degree 1,129 2.1
Professional degree 1,370 1.1
Doctoral degree $1,421 1.6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Manufacturing Employment by Skill Manufacturing Employment by Skill Group, 1983 - 2002Group, 1983 - 2002
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Current Population SurveyAnalysis by Richard Deitz, New York Federal Reserve Bank
“We need more machinists and less poets”…Delore Zimmerman,
Praxis Strategy Group
Strategies for the 21st Century• Build housing that encourages families
• Focus on diverse industries including specialized manufacturing
• Build infrastructure for competitiveness
• Stay Green, but remember humans matter too
Questions and CommentQuestions and Comment