jma 024839-2 projected world energy supplies projected world energy supplies 1900 1920 1940 1960...
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JMAJMA
024839-2
Projected World Energy SuppliesProjected World Energy Supplies
19001900 19201920 19401940 19601960 19801980 20002000 20202020 20402040 20602060 20802080 30003000
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100100 BILLION
BARRELS
Billion Barrels
of Oil Equivalent
per Year (GBOE)
Billion Barrels
of Oil Equivalent
per Year (GBOE) Natural
GasNatural
Gas
HydroelectricHydroelectric
Crude OilCrude Oil
Solar, Wind Geothermal
Nuclear Electric
1993
CoalCoal
24929
Decreasing
Decreasing
Fossil F
uelsF
ossil Fuels
Ne
w T
echno
logies
Ne
w T
echno
logies
World Energy DemandWorld Energy Demand
after Edwards,AAPG 8/97
Careers inCareers inOil & GasOil & Gas
Remain ImportantRemain Important
JMAJMA
Wells Drilled in the USAWells Drilled in the USA
19201920 19301930 19401940 1950195000
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
6060
7070
8080
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990
PercentPercent
OilOil
DryDry
GasGas
American Petroleum Institute, 1994American Petroleum Institute, 1994
Most Desired ResourceMost Desired Resource
GasGasGasGas OilOil
JMAJMA
US Domestic ProductionUS Domestic Production
American Petroleum Institute, 1999American Petroleum Institute, 1999
19501950 1960196000
22
44
66
88
1010
1212
19701970 19801980 19901990
ThousandThousandBarrelsBarrels
per Dayper Day
Natural Gasoline and Other Hydrocarbons
Crude OilCrude Oil
19981998
Natural Gasand Other Hydrocarbons
JMAJMA
1950’s1950’s 15%15%
1960’s1960’s 20%20%
1970’s1970’s 36%36%
1980’s1980’s 42%42%
1990’s1990’s 50%50%
2000’s2000’s ??
United States Petroleum ImportsUnited States Petroleum Imports
American Petroleum Institute, 1999American Petroleum Institute, 1999
JMAJMA
VenezuelaVenezuela
Major Suppliers of Oil to the U.S.Major Suppliers of Oil to the U.S.Millions of Barrels Per DayMillions of Barrels Per Day
CanadaCanada Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia MexicoMexico
1.681.68 1.611.61 1.481.48 1.361.36
U.S. Dept. of EnergyU.S. Dept. of EnergyEmbassy of VenezuelaEmbassy of Venezuela12/98 U.S. News & World Report12/98 U.S. News & World Report
JMAJMA
DOE Oil Price ForecastsDOE Oil Price ForecastsLinear Trends Predicted Beginning From the Actual Price of Year ListedLinear Trends Predicted Beginning From the Actual Price of Year Listed
after U.S. Department of Energy, 1998after U.S. Department of Energy, 1998
120120
100100
8080
6060
4040
2020
0019751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005
YearYear
1982
1981
1984
1985
1986 1987
1991
1995
ActualDo
llars
pe
r B
arr
el
Do
llars
pe
r B
arr
el
JMAJMA
1998 Oil Price Forecasts1998 Oil Price ForecastsNine OrganizationsNine Organizations
U.S. Department of Energy, 1998U.S. Department of Energy, 1998
3535
3030
2525
2020
1515
1010
20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020
IEAIEA
DOE HighDOE High
MobilMobil
DRIDRI
DOE BaseDOE Base
Nat. Res. CanadaNat. Res. Canada
Nat. West Sec.Nat. West Sec.
DOE LowDOE Low
Pet. Econ. Ltd.Pet. Econ. Ltd.
$/B
BL
(199
6 D
olla
rs)
$/B
BL
(199
6 D
olla
rs)
YearYear
Widely Divergent ForecastsWidely Divergent ForecastsMake Planning DifficultMake Planning Difficult
JMAJMA
US Oil & Gas Consumption/EfficiencyUS Oil & Gas Consumption/EfficiencyT
otal
O&
G E
nerg
y C
onsu
mpt
ion
Tot
al O
&G
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n(T
rillio
n B
TU
)(T
rillio
n B
TU
)
Total O
&G
Consum
ption per GD
PT
otal O&
G C
onsumption per G
DP
(1987$-100
0BT
U)
(1987$-100
0BT
U)
50,00050,000
40,00040,000
30,00030,000
20,00020,000
10,00010,000
60,00060,000
1995
22
44
66
88
1010
1212
1414
1616
1818
19751975 1990199019801980 19851985 1995
otal O&G ConsumptionTotal O&G Consumption
O&G Consumption per $ of Gross Domestic Product
O&G Consumption per $ of Gross Domestic Product
V8 mpgV8 mpg
1971 - 13.61971 - 13.61982 - 18.61982 - 18.61988 - 24.31988 - 24.3
Robert McGill - AAPG Explorer, 11/95Robert McGill - AAPG Explorer, 11/95
Technology Drives Efficiency: Population Drives ConsumptionTechnology Drives Efficiency: Population Drives Consumption
JMAJMA
Impact on StudentsImpact on Students
6060
Colorado School of Mines and Colorado School of Mines and US Department of Energy, 1997US Department of Energy, 1997
5050
4040
3030
2020
1010
0019001900 19101910 19201920 19301930 19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990
YearYear
$/B
arr
el
$/B
arr
el
Oil PriceOil Price(1996 dollars/barrel)(1996 dollars/barrel)
Petroleum Engineer Petroleum Engineer GraduatesGraduates
(Colorado School of Mines)(Colorado School of Mines)
120120
100100
8080
6060
4040
2020
00
Linkage of Petroleum Industry and Geoscience StudentsLinkage of Petroleum Industry and Geoscience Students
JMAJMA
Worst Case Employment ScenarioWorst Case Employment Scenario
Arthur L. Smith, CFA - Abilene, Texas, 1996Arthur L. Smith, CFA - Abilene, Texas, 1996
19741974 19791979 19841984 19891989 19941994 20002000 20052005
200,000200,000
400,000400,000
600,000600,000
800,000800,000
1,000,0001,000,000
1,200,0001,200,000
1,400,0001,400,000
1,600,0001,600,000
Total Number Total Number of Petroleum of Petroleum
Industry Industry EmployeesEmployees
(FRS Companies)(FRS Companies)
Global Energy Global Energy Demand will Demand will Counter TrendCounter Trend
JMAJMA
*with normal attrition and no replenishment
Geoscience DemographicsGeoscience DemographicsFor a Typical Major Oil CompanyFor a Typical Major Oil Company
Gone FishingGone Fishing
323
76
140
255
191
153
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
>25 26-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+Age (YRS)
Age Brackets for Geoscientists Worldwide (2008*)
JMAJMA 024583
US Geoscience Student EnrollmentUS Geoscience Student Enrollment
19551955 1965196500
10,00010,000
20,00020,000
30,00030,000
40,00040,000
19751975 19851985 19951995
Number of MajorsNumber
of Majors
UndergraduateUndergraduate
GraduateGraduate
Marcus Milling AGI, 1993
Marcus Milling AGI, 1993
US Govt. Price
Controls
US Govt. Price
Controls
Arab-Israeli War
Arab-Israeli War
JMAJMA24929
Supply Bachelor’s Degrees, 1970-1994Supply Bachelor’s Degrees, 1970-1994
00
200,000200,000
400,000400,000
600,000600,000
800,000800,000
94,82694,82688,90688,906
244,348244,348
659,495659,495
PhysicistsPhysicists GeologistsGeologists ChemistsChemists BiologistsBiologists
Degrees GrantedDegrees Granted
John Holbrook Palaios, Dec. 1997
John Holbrook Palaios, Dec. 1997
Occupational Outlook Handbook US Bureau of Labor StatisticsOccupational Outlook Handbook US Bureau of Labor Statistics
JMAJMA24929
Job Competitiveness 1970-1997 BS Degrees/1997 JobsJob Competitiveness 1970-1997 BS Degrees/1997 Jobs
00
22
44
66
88
4.74.7
1.91.9
2.52.5
5.65.6
PhysicistsPhysicists GeologistsGeologists ChemistsChemists BiologistsBiologists
Persons per Job
Persons per Job
John Holbrook Palaios, Dec. 1997
John Holbrook Palaios, Dec. 1997
Occupational Outlook Handbook US Bureau of Labor StatisticsOccupational Outlook Handbook US Bureau of Labor Statistics
JMAJMA
24929
Job Competitiveness Years to Replace Currently Employed ScientistsJob Competitiveness Years to Replace Currently Employed Scientists
00
55
1010
1515
2020
55
17.217.2
10.310.3
2.52.5
PhysicistsPhysicists GeologistsGeologists ChemistsChemists BiologistsBiologists
Years to
Replace
Years to
Replace
John Holbrook Palaios, Dec. 1997
John Holbrook Palaios, Dec. 1997
Occupational Outlook Handbook US Bureau of Labor StatisticsOccupational Outlook Handbook US Bureau of Labor Statistics