jm financial - india power sector - coal pooling excludes non-loa plants - transmission congestion a...

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JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Coal Pooling excludes Non-LoA plants/Transmission congestion a reality Decisions of CCEA: a) Plants commissioned after 31 Mar’09 to receive imported coal at a pooled price, Pre 31 Mar’09 plants get CIL coal at notified prices; b) 16GW with No LoAs and expected by FY15 not included in pooling ; c) pooling effective for FY14 and FY15 , further decision after review. CEA’s proposed Options pooling mechanism (Exhibit 1): 1.Restricting pooling to category (a) of 60GW of projects expected by FY15 (as per CEA report of Feb12) - raises pooled coal costs by `606/T and power costs by 42p/kWh in FY14. 2.Adds category (b)-7GW (additional projects with LoAs not part of CEA list) - raising pooled costs by `637/T and power costs by 45p/kWh in FY14. 3.Adds category (c)-11GW with tapering linkage – raising pooled costs by `994/T and power costs by 70p/kWh in FY15. 4.Further adds category (d)-16GW Non–LoA plants - raising coal costs by `1,439/T and power costs by `1.01/kWh in FY15. Transmission Congestion a reality since CERC stipulates transmission planning to be done on basis of Long Term Open Access (LTOA) which is for 12-25 years. While for medium/short-term, no transmission system is planned, given the brief period for which STOA/MTOA is effective, making such capacities financially unviable or redundant. However, while planning the LT systems, some inherent margins are created in view of seasonal variations/margin of safety and extra system due to RoW issues, which get allocated for STOA/MTOA based on availability. However, most upcoming capacities in power surplus Chhattisgarh/Orissa region have limited LTOA creating imbalance in generation vs transmission capabilities. Moreover the Southern grid even after it is connected will be linked upto Karnataka without incremental transmission capacities to Tamil Nadu, keeping the south deficit region. These imbalances create opportunities for merchant players located especially in the South. JM View: Heightened risk for 16GW plants without LoAs (eg: Adani’s Tiroda III, 2 units of Jindal Power’s Tamnar II – may get delayed or stranded). Transmission/coal constraints to depress supply while state elections will ensure high demand thus supporting merchant prices for 12-18 months. Remain negative on IPPs with domestic coal exposure (Adani, Lanco). Stocks: Low beta (value picks) - Power Gird (TP `128), Coal India (TP `365), NTPC (`161). High beta (near term beneficiary) - JSW Energy (TP `67) – exposure to imported coal and plants located in the demand centres (South & West) insulate them from both domestic coal and transmission issues. Revise JSWEL TP to `67 factoring higher LT coal prices of $85/T and stable merchant rates of `4/kWh. We find valuations attractive at 1.1 FY15 book, given expected RoEs of 13% in FY14/15. Subhadip Mitra [email protected] Tel: (91 22) 66303088 Abhishek Anand [email protected] Tel: (91 22) 66303067 Sandeep Tulsiyan [email protected] Tel: (91 22) 66303085 India Power Sector 21 March 2013 India | Utilities | Sector update JM Financial Research is also available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters. Please see important disclosure at the end of the report

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Page 1: JM Financial - India Power Sector - Coal Pooling Excludes Non-LoA Plants - Transmission Congestion a Reality

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited

Coal Pooling excludes Non-LoA plants/Transmission congestion a reality

Decisions of CCEA: a) Plants commissioned after 31 Mar’09 to receive imported coal at a pooled price, Pre 31 Mar’09 plants get CIL coal at notified prices; b) 16GW with No LoAs and expected by FY15 not included in pooling; c) pooling effective for FY14 and FY15, further decision after review.

CEA’s proposed Options pooling mechanism (Exhibit 1):

1. Restricting pooling to category (a) of 60GW of projects expected by FY15 (as per CEA report of Feb12) - raises pooled coal costs by `606/T and power costs by 42p/kWh in FY14.

2. Adds category (b)-7GW (additional projects with LoAs not part of CEA list) - raising pooled costs by `637/T and power costs by 45p/kWh in FY14.

3.Adds category (c)-11GW with tapering linkage – raising pooled costs by `994/T and power costs by 70p/kWh in FY15.

4.Further adds category (d)-16GW Non–LoA plants - raising coal costs by `1,439/T and power costs by `1.01/kWh in FY15.

Transmission Congestion a reality since CERC stipulates transmission planning to be done on basis of Long Term Open Access (LTOA) which is for 12-25 years. While for medium/short-term, no transmission system is planned, given the brief period for which STOA/MTOA is effective, making such capacities financially unviable or redundant. However, while planning the LT systems, some inherent margins are created in view of seasonal variations/margin of safety and extra system due to RoW issues, which get allocated for STOA/MTOA based on availability. However, most upcoming capacities in power surplus Chhattisgarh/Orissa region have limited LTOA creating imbalance in generation vs transmission capabilities. Moreover the Southern grid even after it is connected will be linked upto Karnataka without incremental transmission capacities to Tamil Nadu, keeping the south deficit region. These imbalances create opportunities for merchant players located especially in the South.

JM View: Heightened risk for 16GW plants without LoAs (eg: Adani’s Tiroda III, 2 units of Jindal Power’s Tamnar II – may get delayed or stranded). Transmission/coal constraints to depress supply while state elections will ensure high demand thus supporting merchant prices for 12-18 months. Remain negative on IPPs with domestic coal exposure (Adani, Lanco).

Stocks: Low beta (value picks) - Power Gird (TP `128), Coal India (TP `365), NTPC (`161). High beta (near term beneficiary) - JSW Energy (TP `67) – exposure to imported coal and plants located in the demand centres (South & West) insulate them from both domestic coal and transmission issues.

Revise JSWEL TP to `67 factoring higher LT coal prices of $85/T and stable merchant rates of `4/kWh. We find valuations attractive at 1.1 FY15 book, given expected RoEs of 13% in FY14/15.

Subhadip Mitra [email protected]

Tel: (91 22) 66303088

Abhishek Anand [email protected]

Tel: (91 22) 66303067

Sandeep Tulsiyan [email protected]

Tel: (91 22) 66303085

India Power Sector

21 March 2013

India | Utilities | Sector update

JM Financial Research is also available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters.

Please see important disclosure at the end of the report

Page 2: JM Financial - India Power Sector - Coal Pooling Excludes Non-LoA Plants - Transmission Congestion a Reality

India Power Sector 21 March 2013

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Page 2

Exhibit 1. Likely effect on increase in price of indigenous coal and cost of generation

Year Particulars Option-1 Option-2 Option-3 Option-4

Import Qty (in Million Tonnes) 27 28 43 52

Effective increase in Price of CIL Coal in slabs GS-G17 (in ` / Tonne) 606 637 973 1170 2013-14

Increase in per unit (kwh) cost of generation (in Paise) 42 45 68 82

Import Qty (in Million Tonnes) 26 35 60 87

Effective increase in Price of CIL Coal in slabs GS-G17 (in ` / Tonne) 427 573 994 1439 2014-15

Increase in per unit (kwh) cost of generation (in Paise) 30 40 70 101

Source: JM Financial

Key sensitivities

Power Grid (TP `128): Despite factoring equity dilution in FY14, we believe EPS CAGR for FY13-17 will be 16% while RoEs remain stable at 16-17%. Moreover, 80-85% of capex has high visibility viz. `800-850bn of targeted `1,000bn is independent of IPPs. We find upside even in bear case scenario: 13th Plan capex at 80% of 12th Plan and post FY17 projects earning only 14% RoE gives a Bear case TP of `120.

Exhibit 2. PGCIL SOTP Sensitivity PGCIL SOTP Sensitivity Core RoE

16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5%

5.5% 119 124 129 134

5.8% 120 126 131 137

6.0% 122 127 133 139

6.5% 126 132 138 144

Gro

wth

(g

)

6.8% 128 135 141 148

Source: Company, JM Financial

NTPC (TP `161): The Budget change to 80IA (extended till FY14 end) can impose MAT on NTPC, impacting core RoEs by 2-3%. In 9M13, NTPC has delivered about 23% core RoEs which includes 1.5-2% higher RoE due to tax grossing up benefit, since NTPC falls under full tax rate. Assuming that in FY14 NTPC falls in MAT (losing gross up benefit) and lower PAF in plants on coal constraints, the impact on core RoE will be 2-3%, implying sustainable RoEs of 20% and our current TP of `161. The CMP of `138 implies a sustainable RoE of 18% which we believe already factors bear case.

Exhibit 3. NTPC SOTP Sensitivity NTPC SOTP Sensitivity Core RoE

18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 21.0%

3% 144 149 154 159

4% 146 152 157 163

5% 149 155 161 168

6% 153 160 167 174 Gro

wth

(g

)

7% 158 166 174 183

Source: JM Financial

Page 3: JM Financial - India Power Sector - Coal Pooling Excludes Non-LoA Plants - Transmission Congestion a Reality

India Power Sector 21 March 2013

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Page 3

Adani Power (valuations factor rewards not risks): APL’s 4.6GW face fuel supply risk, while future capacities depend on Australian (Galilee) mine where price is yet undecided. With 55-60% dependence on spot coal imports, potential discounted supply from parent’s Indonesian mines remains the only game changer.

Tariff hike may not be a trigger: If CERC allows a PPA tariff hike based on Indonesian law change, then it will imply that all imported coal purchases will continue perpetually on spot basis, keeping costs up. Hence a tariff hike may not add to current profit estimates/valuations (which already discount coal supply).

CMP of `44 does not factor all risks: We arrive at a TP of `52 factoring all positives of a) decline in imported coal rates, b) cheap coal from Bunyu over FY14-16 (at $36/T), and c) 30% CIL supply for Mundra units. However the downside risk of no tariff hike/low coal supply from Bunyu are not factored. Our bear case scenario implies a TP of `36/share assuming no tariff hike and perpetual spot coal imports.

High Debt/Equity further adds to risk: The high D/E of 9x in FY13, may well improve to 4.7x by FY15 if project cash flows are as expected with benefit of either cheap coal supply from Bunyu or an equivalent tariff hike. However if any of the above do not work out risks of over-leveraging would be imminent.

Key risks to our call: a) Discounted Bunyu coal supply not commencing in FY15, b) no supply from CIL to Mundra. However, low merchant exposure and lucrative Case1 PPAs in new projects (Tiroda) may cushion some of the down-side.

Exhibit 4. Sensitivity for Adani

48

49

39

45

56

56

61

61

Forex:55.5:53.5:51.5

Merchant-10p:Base:+10p

PLF75:80:85

CoE15%:13%:11%

PT `52

Source: JM Financial

Coal India (BUY, TP `365): At CMP, the stock trades at sub 5x EBITDA15E

(discount to international peers), and is pricing in an implied negative long term growth, as per JMFe. A 3-4% dividend yield also offers strong downside support. Our revised earnings estimate factors in conservative assumptions on prices (partial pass through of cost increases), volumes (10% below company guidance), and penalties. At CMP, we think the risk reward is favorable for investors. We upgrade CIL with TP of `365 (Mar’14) implying 6x EBITDA FY14 and 11x EPS FY14 (ex-Overburden Removal provisioning).

Page 4: JM Financial - India Power Sector - Coal Pooling Excludes Non-LoA Plants - Transmission Congestion a Reality

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited

Transmission/Coal issues – near term triggers

Near Term triggers: New plants coming up before schedule and with limited LTOA in Chhattisgarh/Orissa will put pressure on the transmission system. We expect congestion in these areas to limit ability of the power surplus Chhattisgarh and Orissa to sell power to deficit regions of North and especially South. Even the transmission link to South Grid (Raichur –Sholapur line) although connects Maharashtra to Karnataka, no incremental transmission capacity is coming up between Karnataka to TN/Andhra Pradesh. These regional imbalances in transmission will continue for next 12-18 months. Further, the election season will mandate limited load shedding by SEBs. All of these factors point towards strong to stable merchant realisations in the near term. JSW’s plants being located in Karnataka and Maharashtra are imported coal based and near to the demand centres - insulating them from both constrains of coal and transmission. With coal prices stabilising at $85/T levels we believe JSWEL can continue to earn 20% plus RoEs at plant level for next 6-8 month at least.

Factoring lower merchant/higher coal prices: We factor in conservative estimates for JSW as we cut merchant rates by 25p/unit (FY15:`4/unit) and increase long term assumptions for imported coal to US$85/t (from US$80/t), in-line with the current global prices. Merchant market is expected to remain strong for next 12-18 months with Southern Grid connectivity not expected before Mar’14.

Cut estimates by 18/22%: We cut our earnings estimate by 18%/22% respectively for FY14/15 on account of lower merchant rates and higher fuel cost. We factor a return to profitability for Barmer plant with an RoE of 5% for FY14 and 13% for FY15.

Remains our preferred beta pick in the space, maintain BUY: Given favourable dynamics (delayed SBD, elections, high merchant/low coal rates) we believe JSW is in the best strategic position to take advantage of coal/merchant arbitrage. Maintain BUY with a Mar’14 TP of `67. 5.

Subhadip Mitra [email protected]

Tel: (91 22) 66303088

Abhishek Anand [email protected]

Tel: (91 22) 66303067

Sandeep Tulsiyan [email protected]

Tel: (91 22) 66303085

Key Data

Market cap (bn) ` 85.3 / US$ 1.6Shares in issue (mn) 1,640.1Diluted share (mn) 1,640.13-mon avg daily val (mn) ` 127.2/US$ 2.352-week range ` 75.0/40.1Sensex/Nifty 18,884/5,694`/US$ 54.3

Daily Performance

-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%

01020304050607080

Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13

JSW Energy

JSW Energy Rela tive to Sensex (RHS)

% 1M 3M 12M

Absolute -17.3 -23.1 -24.3

Relative -13.5 -20.2 -33.4

* To the BSE Sensex

Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec-12 Dec-11

Promoters 76.7 76.7

FI I 2.3 3.9

DII 6.1 5.7

Public / Others 14.8 13.6

JSW Energy | JSW IN

21 March 2013

India | Utilities | Company Update Price: `53

BUY

Target: `67 (Mar’14)

Exhibit 5. Financial Summary (` mn)

Y/E March FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Net sales 40,631 51,787 75,536 76,232 77,627

Sales growth (%) 75.4 27.5 45.9 0.9 1.8

EBITDA 15,641 14,478 28,561 31,645 30,945

EBITDA (%) 36.4 23.7 31.5 34.7 33.4

Adjusted net profit 8,339 3,024 10,388 9,402 10,181

EPS (`) 5.1 1.8 6.3 5.7 6.2

EPS growth (%) 11.9 -63.7 243.5 -9.5 8.3

ROIC (%) 9.1 6.4 11.7 11.3 11.6

ROE (%) 16.0 5.3 17.0 13.7 13.2

PE (x) 10.2 28.2 8.2 9.1 8.4

Price/Book value (x) 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 12.0 6.2 5.3 4.9So urce: Co mpany data, JM F in an cial . N ote: Valuations as o f 2 1/ 03/ 201 3

JM Financial Research is also available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters.

Please see important disclosure at the end of the report

Page 5: JM Financial - India Power Sector - Coal Pooling Excludes Non-LoA Plants - Transmission Congestion a Reality

India Power Sector 21 March 2013

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Page 5

Barmer continues at 80%+ PLF in Jan-Feb, on track for turnaround: The plant delivered 81% PLF and achieved break even based on adhoc tariff revision. Management indicates Coal Ministry clearance for Kapodi expansion mine plan is expected soon. Additional 405MW capacity has been commissioned in last 2 months and will be fuelled by 3mnT of sanctioned production from Kapodi. This should suffice till 1H14 for entire 1080MW, by when clearance for the expansion should be received. However, we conservatively assume slow ramp up with optimal RoEs only by FY15-16.

Key Risks: Under-recoveries in Barmer plant may continue incase of delay in supply from captive lignite mines. Any sharp fall in merchant rates or rise in coal prices can also impact earning estimates.

Exhibit 6. SOTP Projects MW Type Holding JSW EV Per Share (`) (Mar’14) COE (%)

JSWEL-I 260 Imp coal 100% 6,881 4.2 13.0%

JSWEL-II 600 Imp coal 100% 37,863 23.1 13.0%

JSWERL 1,200 Imp coal 100% 39,053 23.8 13.0%

RWPL 1,080 Lignite/ Imp coal 100% 21,732 13.3 13.0%

Add: Cash for FY14 3,871 2.4

Sub-total 109,400 67

Source: Company, JM Financial

Exhibit 7. Estimate Change (` mn) New Estimates Old Estimates % Change

FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Net Generation (BU) 18,849 20,053 20,999 18,849 20,053 20,999 0 0 0

Net Sales 90,554 91,131 92,526 90,554 93,291 94,401 0 -2 -2

Growth (%) 48.0 0.6 1.5 48.0 3.0 1.2

EBITDA 28,561 31,645 30,945 28,561 34,346 34,692 0 -8 -11

Growth (%) 97.3 10.8 -2.2 97.3 20.3 1.0

Net adj. profits 10,388 9,402 10,181 10,388 11,496 13,083 0 -18 -22

EPS (`) 6.3 5.7 6.2 6.3 7.0 8.0 0 -18 -22

Growth (%) 243.5 -9.5 8.3 243.5 10.7 13.8

Source: Company, JM Financial

Exhibit 8. Operational Metrics New Estimates Old Estimates % Change

FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Average Capacity (MW) 2,654 3,105 3,140 2,654 3,105 3,140 0 0 0

Net Gen (MUs) 18,849 20,053 20,999 18,849 20,053 20,999 0 0 0

Merchant sales (MU) 10,395 9,253 9,633 10,395 9,253 9,633 0 0 0

Merchant Tariff (`) 4.45 4.24 3.93 4.45 4.49 4.18 0 -6 -6

Average Realisation (`) 4.01 3.80 3.70 4.01 3.91 3.79 0 -3 -2

Variable Cost (`) 2.44 2.09 2.09 2.44 2.06 2.00 0 1 4

EBITDA/MU (`) 1.52 1.58 1.47 1.52 1.71 1.65 0 -8 -11

PAT/MU (`) 0.55 0.47 0.48 0.55 0.57 0.62 0 -18 -22

Spot Coal (US$/t) 90 85 85 90 85 80 0 0 6

Spot blending (%) 85 100 100 85 100 100 0 0 0

INR/USD 53 54 54 53 53 53 0 2 2

Source: Company, JM Financial

Page 6: JM Financial - India Power Sector - Coal Pooling Excludes Non-LoA Plants - Transmission Congestion a Reality

India Power Sector 21 March 2013

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Page 6

Financial Tables (Consolidated)

Profit & Loss Statement (` mn) Y/E March FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Net sales (Net of excise) 40,631 51,787 75,536 76,232 77,627

Growth (%) 75.4 27.5 45.9 0.9 1.8

Other operat ional income 2,313 9,402 15,017 14,899 14,899

Raw material (or COGS) 24,813 40,124 54,419 52,976 54,926

Personnel cost 486 905 1,261 1,380 1,490

Other expenses (or SG&A) 2,005 5,682 6,313 5,131 5,166

EBITDA 15,641 14,478 28,561 31,645 30,945

EBITDA (%) 36.4 23.7 31.5 34.7 33.4

Growth (%) 28.9 -7.4 97.3 10.8 -2.2

Other non-op. income 1,255 1,466 1,656 1,283 2,033

Depreciat ion and amort. 2,668 5,033 6,773 8,513 8,452

EBIT 14,227 10,911 23,444 24,415 24,526

Add: Net interest income -4,325 -7,172 -9,774 -11,724 -10,834

Pre tax profit 9,902 3,738 13,670 12,691 13,692

Taxes 1,563 419 2,743 3,289 3,511

Add: Extraordinary items 0 -1,613 -2,009 0 0

Less: M inority interest 0 0 0 0 0

Reported net profit 8,339 1,706 8,917 9,402 10,181

Adjusted net profit 8,339 3,024 10,388 9,402 10,181

Margin (%) 19.4 4.9 11.5 10.3 11.0

Diluted share cap. (mn) 1,640 1,640 1,640 1,640 1,640

Diluted EPS ( )̀ 5.1 1.8 6.3 5.7 6.2

Growth (%) 11.9 -63.7 243.5 -9.5 8.3

Total Dividend + Tax 1,906 953 959 1,663 1,801 Source: Company, JM Financial

Balance Sheet (` mn) Y/E March FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Share capital 16,401 16,401 16,401 16,401 16,401

Other capital 0 0 0 0 0

Reserves and surplus 40,364 40,600 48,558 56,297 64,677

Networth 56,765 57,001 64,958 72,697 81,077

Total loans 96,376 99,947 99,729 97,816 90,402

Minority interest 724 500 500 500 500

Sources of funds 153,865 157,448 165,188 171,014 171,979

Intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0

Fixed assets 74,152 150,253 168,336 168,336 186,418

Less: Depn. and amort. 9,767 14,801 21,574 30,087 38,539

Net block 64,385 135,453 146,762 138,249 147,880

Capital WIP 77,080 10,993 10,850 18,083 0

Investments 4,842 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971

Def tax assets/- liability -1,562 -1,306 -1,306 -1,306 -1,306

Current assets 29,741 41,571 33,993 37,838 46,524

Inventories 5,348 7,658 5,591 5,522 6,180

Sundry debtors 7,637 4,710 7,261 7,579 8,190

Cash & bank balances 9,779 6,686 3,871 9,972 17,682

Other current assets 0 22,516 17,270 14,764 14,473

Loans & advances 6,977 0 0 0 0

Current liabilit ies & prov. 20,622 34,235 30,082 26,821 26,090

Current liabilit ies 20,622 34,235 30,082 26,821 26,090

Provisions and others 0 0 0 0 0

Net current assets 9,120 7,336 3,911 11,017 20,434

Others (net) 0 0 0 0 0

Application of funds 153,865 157,448 165,188 171,014 171,979

Source: Company, JM Financial

Cash flow statement (` mn) Y/E March FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

Reported net profit 8,339 1,706 8,917 9,402 10,181

Depreciat ion and amort. 3,053 5,033 6,773 8,513 8,452

-Inc/dec in working cap. -4,943 14,230 -4,636 -3,510 -1,999

Others 571 -224 0 0 0

Cash from operations (a) 7,021 20,746 11,054 14,405 16,634

-Inc/dec in investments 9,503 -129 0 0 0

Capex -28,368 -10,014 -17,939 -7,233 0

Others -3,125 -15,539 5,247 2,505 292

Cash flow from inv. (b) -21,991 -25,682 -12,692 -4,728 292

Inc/-dec in capital 2,530 -517 0 0 0

Dividend+Tax thereon -1,906 -953 -959 -1,663 -1,801

Inc/-dec in loans 17,675 3,571 -218 -1,913 -7,415

Others 401 -257 0 0 0

Financial cash flow ( c ) 18,700 1,844 -1,177 -3,576 -9,216

Inc/-dec in cash (a+b+c) 3,730 -3,093 -2,815 6,101 7,710

Opening cash balance 6,048 9,779 6,686 3,871 9,972

Closing cash balance 9,779 6,686 3,871 9,972 17,682 Source: Company, JM Financial

Key Ratios Y/E March FY11A FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E

BV/Share (̀ ) 34.6 34.8 39.6 44.3 49.4

ROIC (%) 9.1 6.4 11.7 11.3 11.6

ROE (%) 16.0 5.3 17.0 13.7 13.2

Net Debt/equity ratio (x) 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.8

Valuation ratios (x)

PER 10.2 28.2 8.2 9.1 8.4

PBV 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1

EV/EBITDA 10.7 12.0 6.2 5.3 4.9

EV/Sales 4.1 3.4 2.3 2.2 2.0

Turnover ratios (no.)

Debtor days 69 33 35 36 39

Inventory days 48 54 27 26 29

Creditor days 303 311 202 185 173

Source: Company, JM Financial

Page 7: JM Financial - India Power Sector - Coal Pooling Excludes Non-LoA Plants - Transmission Congestion a Reality

India Power Sector 21 March 2013

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Page 7

JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited Member, BSE Limited and National Stock Exchange of India Limited

SEBI Registration Nos.: BSE - INB011296630 & INF011296630, NSE - INB231296634 & INF231296634 Registered Office: 141, Maker Chambers III, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021, India Corporate Office: 51, Maker Chambers III, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021, India

Board: +9122 6630 3030 | Fax: +91 22 6747 1825 | Email: [email protected] | www.jmfinancial.in

Analyst Certification The research analysts, with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that:

All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and

No part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

Analyst(s) holding in the Stock: (Nil)

Disclosures This research report has been prepared by JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited (JM Financial Institutional Securities) to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies) solely for the purpose of information of the select recipient of this report. This report and/or any part thereof, may not be duplicated in any form and/or reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of JM Financial Institutional Securities. This report has been prepared independent of the companies covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities and its affiliated companies are part of a multi-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have provided or may provide services in respect of managing offerings of securities, corporate finance, investment banking, mergers & acquisitions, financing or any other advisory services to the company(ies) covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have received or may receive compensation from the company(ies) mentioned in this report for rendering any of the above services. Research analysts and sales persons of JM Financial Institutional Securities may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies) associated with it.

While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, it does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to herein, and JM Financial Institutional Securities does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. JM Financial Institutional Securities may not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This report is provided for information only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investment discussed or views expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. The information contained herein may be changed without notice and JM Financial Institutional Securities reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as they may deem fit from time to time.

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This report is neither an offer nor solicitation of an offer to buy and/or sell any securities mentioned herein and/or not an official confirmation of any transaction.

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History of earnings estimates and target price

Date FY13E EPS (`) % Chg.

FY14E EPS (`) % Chg.

Target Price

Target Date % Chg.

13-Nov-11 2.2 45 Mar-1223-Jan-12 1.7 -22.7 1.8 46 Mar-13 2.22-May-12 2.1 23.5 2.2 22.2 48 Mar-13 4.328-Jun-12 2.2 4.8 2.4 9.1 49 Mar-13 2.123-Jul-12 2.3 4.5 2.4 0.0 48 Mar-13 -2.01-Nov-12 4.6 100.0 3.9 62.5 56 Sep-13 16.78-Dec-12 5.2 13.0 6.6 69.2 82 Mar-14 46.423-Jan-13 6.3 21.2 7.0 6.1 82 Mar-14 0.0

Recommendation history

H H H H HH B B

0102030405060708090

Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13

JSW Energy

Target Price JSW Energy