jefferies virtual west coast consumer ... - flowers foods/media/files/f/... · flowers [ randed...
TRANSCRIPT
Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer Conference
November 18, 2020
2
Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements relate to current expectations regarding our future financial
condition, performance and results of operations and the ultimate impact of the novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on our business, results of operations and financial condition,
planned capital expenditures, long-term objectives of management, supply and demand, pricing trends and market forces, and integration plans and expected benefits of transactions and are often
identified by the use of words and phrases such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "should," "will," "would," "is
likely to," "is expected to" or "will continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause
actual results to differ from those projected. Other factors that may cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements contained in this release and that may affect the company's
prospects in general include, but are not limited to, (a) the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and measures taken in response thereto, including, among other things, temporary or
ongoing bakery closures, on our business, results of operations and financial condition, which are highly uncertain and are difficult to predict, (b) general economic and business conditions and the
competitive conditions in the baked foods industry, including promotional and price competition, (c) changes in consumer demand for our products, including changes in consumer behavior,
trends and preferences, including health and whole grain trends, and the movement toward more inexpensive store-branded products, (d) the success of productivity improvements and new product
introductions, (e) a significant reduction in business with any of our major customers including a reduction from adverse developments in any of our customer's business, (f) fluctuations in
commodity pricing, (g) energy and raw material costs and availability and hedging and counterparty risk, (h) our ability to fully integrate recent acquisitions into our business, (i) our ability to
achieve cash flow from capital expenditures and acquisitions and the availability of new acquisitions that build shareholder value, (j) our ability to successfully implement our business strategies,
including those strategies the company has initiated under Project Centennial, which may involve, among other things, the deployment of new systems and technology and an enhanced
organizational structure; (k) our ability to integrate recent acquisitions or the acquisition or disposition of assets at presently targeted values, (l) consolidation within the baking industry and related
industries, (m) disruptions in our direct-store delivery system, including litigation or an adverse ruling from a court or regulatory or government body that could affect the independent contractor
classification of our independent distributors, (n) increasing legal complexity and legal proceedings that we are or may become subject to, (o) product recalls or safety concerns related to our
products, and (p) the failure of our information technology systems to perform adequately, including any interruptions, intrusions or security breaches of such systems or risks associated with the
planned implementation of a new enterprise resource planning system. The foregoing list of important factors does not include all such factors, nor necessarily present them in order of importance.
In addition, you should consult other public disclosures made by the company, including the risk factors included in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on
Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and disclosures made in other filings with the SEC and company press releases, for other factors that may cause actual
results to differ materially from those projected by the company. We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as they speak only as of the date made and are
inherently uncertain. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update such statements, except as required by law.
3
Participants
Ryals McMullianPresident & Chief Executive Officer
Steve KinseyChief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer
4
Today’s Agenda
Strategic Priorities
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain Optimization
Driving Brand Relevance
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Acquisition Strategy
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
OVERVIEW
Strategic Priorities
Strategic Priorities
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain
Optimization
Driving Brand Relevance
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Acquisition Strategy
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
Strong Foundation and Clear Path Forward
6
Leader in Large and Attractive CategoriesOperate the #1 loaf, organic, and gluten-free bread brands; gaining share in stable categories throughout the economic cycle
Leading Brands to Drive GrowthBrand-focused portfolio strategy drives above-market growth via innovation, improved brand presence and relevance, and M&A
Significant Margin Expansion OpportunityPortfolio and supply chain optimization targeting improved price realization, cost containment, and data-driven insights to expand margins
Consistent Capital Allocation Maximizes ReturnsDividend paid in 71 consecutive quarters, opportunistic share repurchases, strong track record of generating value through M&A
Strategic Priorities Aligned to Long-term Growth Targets
7
DEVELOP TEAMCapabilities to build brands and create value
PRIORITIZE MARGINSOptimize portfolio and supply chain
SMART M&AProactive M&A in the grain-based foods arena
FOCUS ON BRANDSEnhance relevancy and expand presence
Enhanced Organizational Structure
8
• Chief Brand Officer responsible for managing the brand portfolio and prioritizing brand-building investments
• Chief Marketing Officer to lead stand-alone innovation function
• President of Cake Operations focused exclusively on improving performance in that business
• Recently named Chief Supply Chain Officer to bring fresh perspective to network and portfolio optimization initiatives
• Foodservice refocused to maximize value over volume and prioritize a more profitable product mix
Better prioritizing brand building, cake turnaround, and food service profitability
Growing Sales with Iconic Brands
9
• Build brands through insights, innovation, and marketing
• Capitalize on portfolio opportunities
FLOWERS’ BRANDED PRODUCTS DRIVING TOP LINE
CAGR
4.9%
$2.2B
$1.6B
$2.8B
$1.5B
Branded Sales Non-branded Sales
FY - 15
LTM - 20 ¹
CAGR
5.2%
(1) 52 weeks ended Q3 2020(2) Internal Sales Data Warehouse 12 Weeks Ending October 4 2020
14
18
Flowers' Share ²
Portfolio Strategy Drives Margins
10
Branded Retail
$2.790B
Store Branded
Retail
$612M
Non-Retail & Other
$881M
Recent results demonstrate impact of shift to branded retail
SALES MIX1
• Clarified brand strategy to drive margin expansion
• Prioritizing a more profitable product mix
• Repurposing capacity to grow branded retail business
(1) 52 weeks ended Q3 2020
Total sales up 4.8% y/y; branded retail up 13.7% y/y
Prioritizing Margins with Supply Chain Optimization
11
DISTRIBUTION AND NETWORK
BAKERY OPERATIONS PROCUREMENT
OVERHEAD EXPENSES
• Backhaul utilization
• Cube optimization
• Depot consolidation
• Optimize number of bakeries
• Limit overtime expense
• Transition some routes to four-day delivery
• Repurpose Lynchburg bakery
• SKU rationalization
• Increase production run times
• Quality improvement; site line machines
• Stale reduction
• Optimize days of availability
• Minimize scrap
• Automation
• Leverage scale with centralized buying
• Direct materials savings
• Buy better, more strategically
• Leased labor
• Packaging
• Ingredients
• Staffing optimization
• Testing and implementing maintenance and measurement processes
• Enhanced hiring procedures
Reducing fixed costs, enhancing operating leverage
Smart M&A
12
• Pursuing disciplined and highly strategic M&A
• Seeking out innovative platform brands in grain-based foods beyond fresh packaged bread
• Accelerating geographic expansion of growth and core brands
IRI Flowers custom data base Total US MultiOutlet – 52 weeks ended 01-Nov-2020
Track record of strategic growth investments
Fresh Packaged
Breads $16B
Other Grain-Based
Categories $52B
$68B GRAIN-BASED FOOD UNIVERSE
Long-termGrowth Targets1
Strategic Priorities Drive Long-term Growth
13
DEVELOP TEAM
PRIORITIZE MARGINS SMART M&A
FOCUS ON BRANDS
+1-2%
SALES
+4-6%
ADJ. EBITDA2
+7-9%
ADJ. EPS3
(1) Sales and adjusted EBITDA targets reflect organic business growth; adjusted EPS target includes the potential impact of future M&A and share repurchases.(2) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization (EBITDA), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of
these forward-looking, long-term targets.(3) Earnings per share (EPS), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain Optimization
Strategic Priorities
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain
Optimization
Driving Brand Relevance
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Acquisition Strategy
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
15
Potential of optimized portfolio, supply chain
Organization is aligned around the fundamentals
of building brands
Portfolio strategy informs supply chain optimization
initiatives
Key Takeaways
Q3 Illustrates Potential of Optimized Portfolio, Supply Chain
66%14%
20%
Significant margin increase as branded retail business grew to a larger percentage of sales
Combining right portfolio mix with improved bakery network enhances margins
Accelerating optimization to deliver margin expansion over time
Strong Q3 results show effect initiatives could have on our longer-term results SALES MIX
60%16%
24%Branded Retail
Store-branded Retail
Non-retail & Other
Q3 2020 Q3 2019Q3 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN1
9.8%
Q3 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN1
11.8%
16(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.
Executing Against Operational Priorities
17
FOCUS ON BRANDSEnhance relevancy and expand presence
• Marketing team focused on targeted innovation and marketing to generate awareness, drive trial and repeat
• Brand team executing a portfolio strategy designed to opportunistically grow share
TARGET SALES GROWTH = 1-2%
PRIORITIZE MARGINSOptimize portfolio and supply chain
• Portfolio strategy underpins supply chain optimization initiatives
• Orienting asset base to higher margin products, reducing network complexity, enhancing product profitability
TARGET ADJ. EBITDA1 GROWTH = 4-6%
(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosures at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.
Leveraging Flexibility
18
DEPOT MARKETPLACE
Branded retail Foodservice
Flexible fixed asset base can produce and distribute product for any market
IDPBAKERY
HOW WE GO TO MARKET
VERSATILITY TO MEET CHANGING DEMAND
Store branded retail
Optimizing Network to Prioritize Margins
19
Portfolio strategy determines targeted brands and segments
• Pivot capacity to most powerful brands
• Maximize revenue and margin potential
Optimize and reallocate capacity to increase network utilization
• Closed three bakeries since start of Project Centennial
• Transitioned volume to more-efficient lines
Repurposed two bakeries to meet growing DKB demand
• Tuscaloosa, AL and Lynchburg, VA converted to organic production
• Lynchburg bakery expected to open in September 2020
Network Consolidation
20
Lower cost to serve market
Fewer transport miles
Additional network capacity
BENEFITS
BAKERY
DEPOT
MARKET
PREVIOUS TODAY
Increasing Product Profitability
21
• SKU rationalization
• Improved ordering
• Lowering costs and increasing realized capacity
Realized~130 hours per weekin additional capacity, equivalent to an additional bakery
STALE REDUCTION
Shifting Mix to Enhance Profitability
22
Resulting inhigher mix of branded retail products
and more profitable mix of store
branded and foodservice business
Be more selective about type and quality
of other business we accept
Reduce percentage of store branded and foodservice products: Allows us to negotiate better pricing terms on the business we keep….
Increasing production of branded
retail means we can….
&
Driving Brand Relevance
Strategic Priorities
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain
Optimization
Driving Brand Relevance
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Acquisition Strategy
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
Key Takeaways
24
Attractive category with high
penetration and frequency
Relevance ensures our brands
resonate with consumers
Foundational consumer research informs
marketing and innovation strategy
Digital capabilities / digital shelf
RELEVANCE PRESENCE GROWTH
Fundamentals Stand Out Among Grocery Categories
25
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
12.2
12.4
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
7/16/17 11/5/17 2/25/18 6/17/18 10/7/18 1/27/19 5/19/19 9/8/19 12/29/19
% HH Buying Purchase Cycle - Xactions Avg
(1) Willard Bishop SuperStudy 2019(2) Total US: IRI Panel Data 3/1/20, Rolling 13-week periods(3) Total US: IRI Multi Outlet, Quarterly Results
BRANDED CATEGORY SHARE3
$1.38
$2.91
$5.26 $5.87
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
StoreBrand
Nature'sOwn
DKB Canyon
• Large, stable category with sales of $24B+
• Present in 98% of households; buy the category every 12 days
• Consumers willing to pay premium for brands
• Most profitable category for retailers1
TOTAL US BREAD CATEGORY HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION & PURCHASE CYCLE FREQUENCY (DAYS)2
ATTRACTIVE BRAND ECONOMICS
75.8%76.4% 76.7%
79.7%
Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020
Creating Brand Relevance
26
ANNUALIZED OPPORTUNITY
>$350MRelevance
• Generate awareness
• Drive trial
• Convert to repeat
• Disrupt via innovation
Repeat (loyalists)
Trial
Aided and Unaided Awareness
Brand Positioning & Messaging
Targeting brand benefits to meet consumer desires
Delivering advertising via media mix to create awareness
Converting awareness to trial and repeat
Consumer Insight-Driven Messaging to Create Brand Relevance
27
INSPIRINGCHILDLIKE WONDER
BAKING HAPPY AND HEALTHY
INTO EVERY HOME
Developing relevant brand positioning through a deep understanding of consumers’ minds and needs
Messaging reflects the consumers’ desire for functional and emotional benefits
Consumer Messaging
Brand StrategyReaching the consumer though relevance
Brand ArchitectureVision, positioning, personality
Foundational ResearchUnlocking the consumers’ minds and needs
Focus on Consumer Needs
28
At the intersection of each Consumer Segment and Need State:
• Defining the size of the opportunity and the brand’s share of occasions.
• Assessing the fit of every brand for the need and balancing the portfolio approach
Size
ShareFit
Portfolio
ACTIVEINFLUENCERS
BUSYBUDGETERS
BREADAVOIDERS
HEALTHESTABLISHED
FUNCTIONALEATERS
TRADITIONAL CONNECTION
HEALTHIER CHOICES
QUICK AND SIMPLE
HUNGERRELIEF
COMFORT AND BONDING
PERSONAL INDULGENCE
BITES OF ADVENTURE
Building Awareness Is Vital
29
0
300
600
900
Au
dio
/ O
OH
Dis
pla
y
Pri
nt
Sho
pp
er
Soci
al
Spo
t R
adio
Vid
eo
You
Tub
e
2019 2020
Source: IRI Panel Measures, Total US – 52 Week Ending 3/22/20
DRIVING AWARENESS: MESSAGING AND POSITIONING FOR THE CORE CONSUMER1
AIDED 70%
UNAIDED 15%
AIDED 85%
UNAIDED 35%AIDED 29%
UNAIDED 10%
AIDED 75%
UNAIDED 29%
AIDED 71%
UNAIDED 29%
PEER 1 PEER 2
Imp
ress
ion
s (m
illio
ns)
Flowers’ Brands Have Strong Upside Opportunity For Growth
30Source: IRI Panel Measures, Total US – 52 Weeks Ending 3/22/20
0
20
40
60
80
100
% Hhld Penetration
0
20
40
60
80
100
% Repeaters
0
10
20
30
40
50
Purchase Cycle (Days)
Driving growth through brand relevance
• Increase household penetration
• Increase consumer loyalty (% repeat)
• Drive consumption (lower # of days in purchase cycle)
0
50
100
% Hhld Penetration
NATURE’S OWN PENETRATION
Total US
31.9%
South Region
52.8%
DRIVE HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION FOR FLO BRANDS
DRIVE HIGHER CONSUMPTION(REDUCE PURCHASE CYCLE)
INCREASE LOYALTY RATE SOUTHERN IRI REGION: PENETRATION FLO BRANDS
Bread Category
Nature’s Own
Wonder
Dave’s Killer Bread
Peer 1
Peer 2
Engaging the Changing Consumer with E-Commerce
31
(1) IRI E-Commerce and Instacart data(2) IRI Period 2, 2020
2Q’19 2Q’20Pre-Covid ‘202
E-COMMERCE AS % OF BREAD OMNICHANNEL SALES1
• Forced adoption of e-commerce due to COVID-19 driving large shift in retail channel
• Expect increased trial to drive meaningful growth in enduring users
• E-commerce benefits strong brands as awareness and search are key elements of online shopping
• Developing new capabilities in Marketing and Sales Digitization to leverage shift in consumer habits
Driving to win digital consideration and shelf
4.2%
6.8%
7.8% 7.8%
3Q’20
Consumer Acquisition and Retention Through Marketing
32
Seizing on consumers’ desires for Freshness
Nature’s Own drives home the Unique Selling Proposition: “Scratch to Shelf in about 48 hours”
Strategic Priorities
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain
Optimization
Driving Brand Relevance
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Acquisition Strategy
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Key Takeaways
34
Leverage innovation to create brand presence
in underdeveloped segments
Clarified portfolio strategy
Expand brand presence in underdeveloped geographies
through distribution and penetration
Drive brand presence with our retail partners
in a changing marketplace
RELEVANCE PRESENCE GROWTH
Capitalizing on Recent Trends
35
Increased household penetration and increased consumption are driving category growth
Household penetration for FLO brands up 250 BPS
7.2%
3.4%
10.5%
5.9%
14.7%11.9%
DEPT-GENERAL FOOD FRESH PACKAGED BREADS FLOWERS BREAD
(1) IRI Scan and Panel Data - Flowers Custom Database 12 Weeks Ending 10-04-2020(2) IRI Scan and Panel Data - Flowers Custom Database 52 Weeks Ending 11-01-2020
DOLLAR SALES, % CHANGE VS YA1 VOLUME SALES, % CHANGE VS YA1
98.2
54.8
98.1
58.1
Fresh Packaged Breads Category Flowers Bread
Year Ago Cal. Yr.
% OF HOUSEHOLDS BUYING2
PREMIUM GROWTH BRANDS
Drive premiumization of category
MAINSTREAM BRANDS
Drive premium end of mainstream consumption
Drive value end of mainstream consumption
STRONG REGIONAL BRANDS
Win locally with strong regional brands
Driving Brand Presence with a Clear Portfolio Strategy
36
Clarified roles for our brands, channels, and categories
• Expand premium growth brands, win with mainstream brands, and compete locally with strong regional brands
• Align growth maps and brand strategies with network optimization plans
• Rationalizing brands and SKUs
Expanding Brand Presence Geographically
37
Under-developed markets offer huge growth potential
• Focused approach
• Expand breadth and depth of distribution
• Drive awareness, trial, and repeat with increased advertising and shopper marketing
• Intense focus by our DSD sales organization and IDPs
(1) IRI MULO, Calendar Year 2019
FLOWERS DOLLAR SHARE OF FRESH PACKAGED BREAD CATEGORY1
Capitalizing on brand growth potential by increasing presence
27.9 – 49.7
17.1 – 27.8
9.5 – 17.0
5.8 – 9.4
0.0 – 5.8
Leveraging Innovation to Create Presence in Adjacent Segments
38
Consumers expect our brands to offer solutions beyond loaf 26.6
9.8
3.4
30.2
10.46.9
LOAF SANDWICH BUNS/ROLLS BREAKFAST ITEMS
TTM, 3 Years Ago TTM
LOAF SANDWICH BUNS/ROLLS BREAKFAST ITEMS
Segment Size (Annual) $7.9 B $3.7 B $2.4 B
Flowers 3 Year $ Sales CAGR + 7.5% + 6.6% + 51.8%
(1) IRI Scan Data - Flowers Custom Database 12 Weeks Ending 10-04-2020, 52 Weeks Ending 11-08-2020 for annual numbers
FLOWERS DOLLAR SHARE1
Driving Brand Presence with Retail Partners
39
• Consumer-relevant brands appeal to a broad range of consumer demographics
• Brand portfolio delivers incremental category sales and margin growth
• Provide best-in-class category leadership as we navigate uncertain times
(1) IRI Panel Data Total US Category % Share of Requirements, 52 weeks ending 11/01/2020. Peers are leading competitive national bread brands
BRAND LOYALTY - % OF BUYER CATEGORY DOLLARS SPENT WITHIN BRAND1
18.3
8.1
21.2
24.2
15.0 14.3 15.812.3
Nature's Own Wonder Dave's Killer Bread Canyon Bakehouse Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4
Strategic Priorities
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain
Optimization
Driving Brand Relevance
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Acquisition Strategy
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
Acquisition Strategy
Key Takeaways
41
Partner with innovation team to identify
opportunities
Positioned for growth with strong free cash
flow, balance sheet, and M&A track record
Structured approach drives
repeatable process
Explore opportunities in core and grain-based adjacencies
Positioned for Growth Through M&A
42
$82
$566
$-
$10 0
$20 0
$30 0
$40 0
$50 0
$60 0
TTM-Q3'15 TTM-Q3'20
$29
$87
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$10 0
TTM-Q3'18 TTM-Q3'20
#1 Gluten-free Loaf
Proven track record of acquiring and growing differentiated bakery brands
Strong balance sheet and cash flow generation enable investment in further growth
DAVE'S KILLER BREAD TRACKED RETAIL SALES (M)
CANYON BAKEHOUSE TRACKED RETAIL SALES (M)
#1 Organic Loaf
5YR CAGR
+47%
2YR CAGR
+73%
Source: IRI Scan Data - Flowers Custom Database
Structured Approach to M&A
43
Clearly defined, repeatable process Link between corporate
development, strategy, and innovation
Explicit strategic criteria
Steady stream of opportunities
M&A is a capability
Integration is crucial
Monitoring and post-mortems
Deep industry relationships
44
Role of Smart M&A
Partner with innovation team to identify opportunities beyond our core
SOLIDIFY THE CORE• Infrastructure and
distribution growth in underdeveloped markets
• Leverage existing brands
INNOVATIVE ADJACENCIES• Gain exposure to growing,
underdeveloped segments and innovative brands
• Focus on platform assets that bring new capabilities
GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION• Fill in existing markets
• Expand into newer markets
ALTERNATIVE DEAL STRUCTURES• Joint ventures
• Minority investments
• Strategic partnerships
Strategic Priorities
Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain
Optimization
Driving Brand Relevance
Brand Portfolio Strategy
Acquisition Strategy
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
Financial Review & Capital Allocation
Key Takeaways
46
Solid Q3 results, positive 2020
outlook
Strong free cash flow, consistent
capital allocation
Long-term targets supported by leading
brands and growth strategy
Growth roadmap highlights long-
term opportunity
Q3 2020 Financial Highlights
47
$95
$116
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q3'19 Q3'20
11.8%Margin9.8%
Margin
+22%
GROWTH
+2.4%
GROWTH
COMPONENTS OF Q3’20 SALES GROWTH (MILLIONS) ADJUSTED EBITDA (MILLIONS)1
• Sales increase reflecting the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, new product introductions, lower promotional activity, and a reduction in product returns
• Mix shift to branded retail products drove cost leverage and margin increase
(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.
NET SALES$989.7M +2.4% v PY
• Price/Mix +8.1%; Volume -5.7%
• Growth from branded retail more than offsetting lower store-branded retail and foodservice sales
Q3 2020 Financial Review
48
ADJ. EBITDA1
$116.4M +22.4% v PY
• 11.8% of sales, up 200 bps
• Increased primarily due to improved product mix, partially offset by higher employee incentive costs and IDP fees
CASH FLOWS - YTDDividends
$124.9MCash from Ops
$364.4M
Capex
$68.3M
GAAP DILUTED EPS$0.21 +$0.01 v PY
ADJ. DILUTED EPS2
$0.29 +$0.07 v PY
Increased adj. EBITDA partially offset by higher tax rate
(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization (EBITDA), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.(2) Earnings per share (EPS), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.
Fiscal 2020 Guidance (Updated Nov 5, 2020)
49(1) Week 53 expected to contribute 1.5% of overall sales growth.(2) Adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this presentation.
Fiscal 2020 Q4 Considerations
• Food-at-home consumption remains elevated, though moderating
• Foodservice stabilizing and beginning to recover, still well below normal
• Work-from-home and back-to-school trajectory
• Navigating pandemic impact on bakery operations
SALES GROWTH1 ADJ. EPS2
OTHER
+5.5% to +6.0% $1.23 to $1.28
Depreciation & amortization —$140 to $145 million
Net interest expense —$11 million
Effective tax rate —Approx. 24.0% to 24.5%
Diluted shares outstanding —Approx. 212.5 million
Capital expenditures —$85 to $95 million
50
Steady Free Cash Flow
(1) Operating Cash flow minus Capital Expenditures. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this presentation.(2) As of Q3 2020
$245 $255
$222 $196
$263
$352
$-
$50
$10 0
$15 0
$20 0
$25 0
$30 0
$35 0
$40 0
FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 LTM-20
Strong free cash flow growth supports investments in the business, M&A strategy and capital returns
FREE CASH FLOW1 TO FUEL ACCRETIVE INVESTMENTS (MILLIONS)
Cash Flow Drivers
• Growing sales
• Focus on cash margins
• Predictable capex
2
Consistent Capital Allocation
51
Capital Allocation Principles:• Capex to support core
business growth
• Maintain investment grade credit rating
• Support strong dividend
• Smart, disciplined acquisitions
• Opportunistic share repurchases
$120 $131 $141 $150 $160 $165
$7 $126 $3 $2 $7 $1
$395
$200
$-
$10 0
$20 0
$30 0
$40 0
$50 0
$60 0
FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 LTM-20
Dividends Share Repurchases
Cash for Acquisitions
CAPITAL ALLOCATION (MILLIONS)
(1) As of Q3 2020
1
Track Record of De-Leveraging Post-M&A
52(1) Excludes lease liabilities
TOTAL DEBT1 (MILLIONS)Maintaining flexibility to capitalize on value-creating opportunities
$984 $928
$805
$980
$867
FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19
1968 to 2020: MORE THAN 100 ACQUISITIONS
Long Track Record of Growth
53
SALES GROWTH COMPONENTS1 (MILLIONS)
10yr CAGR+5.3%
$-
$5.0 0
$10 .00
$15 .00
$20 .00
$25 .00
Nov'10
Nov'11
Nov'12
Nov'13
Nov'14
Nov'15
Nov'16
Nov'17
Nov'18
Nov'19
Nov'20
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
1. Source: Company filings as of Q3 2020.2. Total Shareholder Return (TSR) assumes reinvestment of dividends. Source: NASDAQ3. Acquisition category includes sales for 12 months following purchase
10yr TSR2
+10.1%
3
Key Drivers to Achieving our Long-term Growth Targets
54
LONG-TERM GROWTH TARGETS1
+1-2%
SALES
+4-6%
ADJ. EBITDA2
+7-9%
ADJ. EPS3
Focus on leading, iconic brands to grow share
Portfolio strategy prioritizes higher-priced, higher-profit products and customers
Supply chain optimization enhances operating leverage, streamlines fixed cost structure
Strong free cash flow generation provides fuel for accretive M&A, opportunistic share repurchases, and dividends
(1) Sales and adjusted EBITDA targets reflect organic business growth; adjusted EPS target includes the potential impact of future M&A and share repurchases.(2) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization (EBITDA), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a
discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.(3) Earnings per share (EPS), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.
Roadmap to Delivering Long-term Targets
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022
• Favorable mix shift
• Accelerate optimization initiatives
• Performance above long-term targets
• 53-week year
• Adjust to the new-normal
• Deliver operational improvements
• Expected headwinds as consumer behavior normalizes
• 52-week year
• Brands driving above-category sales growth
• Performance expected in-line with long-term targets
• 52-week year
55
56
OUR VISION HAS NEVER BEEN CLEARER
Right structure with a passionate team committed to continued success
Emotional connection of fresh bread offers innovative brands the opportunity to appeal powerfully to consumers
Competitive, leading operator with combination of strong brands and scale
Opportunity to grow through product adjacencies, innovation, and M&A
Information Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures
57
The company prepares its consolidated financial statements in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). However, from time to time, the company may present in its public statements, press releases and SEC filings, non-GAAP financial measures such as, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses (SD&A), gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization, free cash flow, and the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. The company’s definitions of these non-GAAP measures may differ from similarly titled measures used by others. These non-GAAP measures should be considered supplemental to, and not a substitute for, financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP.
The company defines EBITDA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The company believes that free cash flow provides investors a better understanding of the company’s liquidity position. The company believes that EBITDA is a useful tool for managing the operations of its business and is an indicator of the company's ability to incur and service indebtedness and generate free cash flow. EBITDA is used as the primary performance measure in the company's 2014 Omnibus Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. Furthermore, pursuant to the terms of our credit facility, EBITDA is used to determine the company's compliance with certain financial covenants. The company also believes that EBITDA measures are commonly reported and widely used by investors and other interested parties as measures of a company's operating performance and debt servicing ability because EBITDA measures assist in comparing performance on a consistent basis without regard to depreciation or amortization, which can vary significantly depending upon accounting methods and non-operating factors (such as historical cost). EBITDA is also a widely-accepted financial indicator of a company's ability to incur and service indebtedness.
EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to (a) income from operations or net income (loss) as a measure of operating performance; (b) cash flows provided by operating, investing and financing activities (as determined in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of the company's ability to meet its cash needs; or (c) any other indicator of performance or liquidity that has been determined in accordance with GAAP.
The company defines adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted SD&A, respectively, excluding the impact of asset impairment charges, Project Centennial consulting costs, lease terminations and legal settlements, acquisition-related costs, and pension plan settlements. Adjusted income tax expense also excludes the impact of tax reform. The company believes that these measures, when considered together with its GAAP financial results, provides management and investors with a more complete understanding of its business operating results, including underlying trends, by excluding the effects of certain charges.
The company defines net debt as total debt less cash and cash equivalents. Net debt to EBITDA is used as a measure of financial leverage employed by the company. The company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The company believes that free cash flow provides investors a better understanding of the company’s liquidity position. Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization is used as a performance measure to provide additional transparent information regarding our results of operations on a consolidated and segment basis. Changes in depreciation and amortization are separately discussed and include depreciation and amortization for materials, supplies, labor and other production costs and operating activities.
Presentation of gross margin includes depreciation and amortization in the materials, supplies, labor and other production costs according to GAAP. Our method of presenting gross margin excludes the depreciation and amortization components, as discussed above.
The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. No reconciliation of the long-term targets for adjusted EBITDA or Adjusted EPS is included in this presentation because we are unable to quantify certain amounts that would be required to be included in the GAAP measure without unreasonable efforts. In addition, the company believes such reconciliations would imply a degree of precision that would be confusing or misleading to investors.
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
58
59
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
60
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
61
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
62
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
63
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
64
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
65
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
66
Time Period
Cash Provided by
Operating Activities
Purchase of Plant, Property
and Equipment Free Cash Flow
3Q20 TTM 453,288$ 101,345$ 351,943$
FY19 366,952 103,685 263,267
FY18 295,893 99,422 196,471
FY17 297,389 75,232 222,157
FY16 356,562 101,727 254,835
FY15 335,674 90,773 244,901
Reconciliation of Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Free Cash Flow* (000s omitted)
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
67
68
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures