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Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer Conference November 18, 2020

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Page 1: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer Conference

November 18, 2020

Page 2: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

2

Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements relate to current expectations regarding our future financial

condition, performance and results of operations and the ultimate impact of the novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on our business, results of operations and financial condition,

planned capital expenditures, long-term objectives of management, supply and demand, pricing trends and market forces, and integration plans and expected benefits of transactions and are often

identified by the use of words and phrases such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "should," "will," "would," "is

likely to," "is expected to" or "will continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause

actual results to differ from those projected. Other factors that may cause actual results to differ from the forward-looking statements contained in this release and that may affect the company's

prospects in general include, but are not limited to, (a) the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and measures taken in response thereto, including, among other things, temporary or

ongoing bakery closures, on our business, results of operations and financial condition, which are highly uncertain and are difficult to predict, (b) general economic and business conditions and the

competitive conditions in the baked foods industry, including promotional and price competition, (c) changes in consumer demand for our products, including changes in consumer behavior,

trends and preferences, including health and whole grain trends, and the movement toward more inexpensive store-branded products, (d) the success of productivity improvements and new product

introductions, (e) a significant reduction in business with any of our major customers including a reduction from adverse developments in any of our customer's business, (f) fluctuations in

commodity pricing, (g) energy and raw material costs and availability and hedging and counterparty risk, (h) our ability to fully integrate recent acquisitions into our business, (i) our ability to

achieve cash flow from capital expenditures and acquisitions and the availability of new acquisitions that build shareholder value, (j) our ability to successfully implement our business strategies,

including those strategies the company has initiated under Project Centennial, which may involve, among other things, the deployment of new systems and technology and an enhanced

organizational structure; (k) our ability to integrate recent acquisitions or the acquisition or disposition of assets at presently targeted values, (l) consolidation within the baking industry and related

industries, (m) disruptions in our direct-store delivery system, including litigation or an adverse ruling from a court or regulatory or government body that could affect the independent contractor

classification of our independent distributors, (n) increasing legal complexity and legal proceedings that we are or may become subject to, (o) product recalls or safety concerns related to our

products, and (p) the failure of our information technology systems to perform adequately, including any interruptions, intrusions or security breaches of such systems or risks associated with the

planned implementation of a new enterprise resource planning system. The foregoing list of important factors does not include all such factors, nor necessarily present them in order of importance.

In addition, you should consult other public disclosures made by the company, including the risk factors included in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on

Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and disclosures made in other filings with the SEC and company press releases, for other factors that may cause actual

results to differ materially from those projected by the company. We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as they speak only as of the date made and are

inherently uncertain. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update such statements, except as required by law.

Page 3: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

3

Participants

Ryals McMullianPresident & Chief Executive Officer

Steve KinseyChief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer

Page 4: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

4

Today’s Agenda

Strategic Priorities

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain Optimization

Driving Brand Relevance

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Acquisition Strategy

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

OVERVIEW

Page 5: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Strategic Priorities

Strategic Priorities

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain

Optimization

Driving Brand Relevance

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Acquisition Strategy

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

Page 6: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Strong Foundation and Clear Path Forward

6

Leader in Large and Attractive CategoriesOperate the #1 loaf, organic, and gluten-free bread brands; gaining share in stable categories throughout the economic cycle

Leading Brands to Drive GrowthBrand-focused portfolio strategy drives above-market growth via innovation, improved brand presence and relevance, and M&A

Significant Margin Expansion OpportunityPortfolio and supply chain optimization targeting improved price realization, cost containment, and data-driven insights to expand margins

Consistent Capital Allocation Maximizes ReturnsDividend paid in 71 consecutive quarters, opportunistic share repurchases, strong track record of generating value through M&A

Page 7: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Strategic Priorities Aligned to Long-term Growth Targets

7

DEVELOP TEAMCapabilities to build brands and create value

PRIORITIZE MARGINSOptimize portfolio and supply chain

SMART M&AProactive M&A in the grain-based foods arena

FOCUS ON BRANDSEnhance relevancy and expand presence

Page 8: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Enhanced Organizational Structure

8

• Chief Brand Officer responsible for managing the brand portfolio and prioritizing brand-building investments

• Chief Marketing Officer to lead stand-alone innovation function

• President of Cake Operations focused exclusively on improving performance in that business

• Recently named Chief Supply Chain Officer to bring fresh perspective to network and portfolio optimization initiatives

• Foodservice refocused to maximize value over volume and prioritize a more profitable product mix

Better prioritizing brand building, cake turnaround, and food service profitability

Page 9: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Growing Sales with Iconic Brands

9

• Build brands through insights, innovation, and marketing

• Capitalize on portfolio opportunities

FLOWERS’ BRANDED PRODUCTS DRIVING TOP LINE

CAGR

4.9%

$2.2B

$1.6B

$2.8B

$1.5B

Branded Sales Non-branded Sales

FY - 15

LTM - 20 ¹

CAGR

5.2%

(1) 52 weeks ended Q3 2020(2) Internal Sales Data Warehouse 12 Weeks Ending October 4 2020

14

18

Flowers' Share ²

Page 10: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Portfolio Strategy Drives Margins

10

Branded Retail

$2.790B

Store Branded

Retail

$612M

Non-Retail & Other

$881M

Recent results demonstrate impact of shift to branded retail

SALES MIX1

• Clarified brand strategy to drive margin expansion

• Prioritizing a more profitable product mix

• Repurposing capacity to grow branded retail business

(1) 52 weeks ended Q3 2020

Total sales up 4.8% y/y; branded retail up 13.7% y/y

Page 11: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Prioritizing Margins with Supply Chain Optimization

11

DISTRIBUTION AND NETWORK

BAKERY OPERATIONS PROCUREMENT

OVERHEAD EXPENSES

• Backhaul utilization

• Cube optimization

• Depot consolidation

• Optimize number of bakeries

• Limit overtime expense

• Transition some routes to four-day delivery

• Repurpose Lynchburg bakery

• SKU rationalization

• Increase production run times

• Quality improvement; site line machines

• Stale reduction

• Optimize days of availability

• Minimize scrap

• Automation

• Leverage scale with centralized buying

• Direct materials savings

• Buy better, more strategically

• Leased labor

• Packaging

• Ingredients

• Staffing optimization

• Testing and implementing maintenance and measurement processes

• Enhanced hiring procedures

Reducing fixed costs, enhancing operating leverage

Page 12: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Smart M&A

12

• Pursuing disciplined and highly strategic M&A

• Seeking out innovative platform brands in grain-based foods beyond fresh packaged bread

• Accelerating geographic expansion of growth and core brands

IRI Flowers custom data base Total US MultiOutlet – 52 weeks ended 01-Nov-2020

Track record of strategic growth investments

Fresh Packaged

Breads $16B

Other Grain-Based

Categories $52B

$68B GRAIN-BASED FOOD UNIVERSE

Page 13: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Long-termGrowth Targets1

Strategic Priorities Drive Long-term Growth

13

DEVELOP TEAM

PRIORITIZE MARGINS SMART M&A

FOCUS ON BRANDS

+1-2%

SALES

+4-6%

ADJ. EBITDA2

+7-9%

ADJ. EPS3

(1) Sales and adjusted EBITDA targets reflect organic business growth; adjusted EPS target includes the potential impact of future M&A and share repurchases.(2) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization (EBITDA), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of

these forward-looking, long-term targets.(3) Earnings per share (EPS), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.

Page 14: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain Optimization

Strategic Priorities

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain

Optimization

Driving Brand Relevance

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Acquisition Strategy

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

Page 15: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

15

Potential of optimized portfolio, supply chain

Organization is aligned around the fundamentals

of building brands

Portfolio strategy informs supply chain optimization

initiatives

Key Takeaways

Page 16: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Q3 Illustrates Potential of Optimized Portfolio, Supply Chain

66%14%

20%

Significant margin increase as branded retail business grew to a larger percentage of sales

Combining right portfolio mix with improved bakery network enhances margins

Accelerating optimization to deliver margin expansion over time

Strong Q3 results show effect initiatives could have on our longer-term results SALES MIX

60%16%

24%Branded Retail

Store-branded Retail

Non-retail & Other

Q3 2020 Q3 2019Q3 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN1

9.8%

Q3 2020 ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN1

11.8%

16(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.

Page 17: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Executing Against Operational Priorities

17

FOCUS ON BRANDSEnhance relevancy and expand presence

• Marketing team focused on targeted innovation and marketing to generate awareness, drive trial and repeat

• Brand team executing a portfolio strategy designed to opportunistically grow share

TARGET SALES GROWTH = 1-2%

PRIORITIZE MARGINSOptimize portfolio and supply chain

• Portfolio strategy underpins supply chain optimization initiatives

• Orienting asset base to higher margin products, reducing network complexity, enhancing product profitability

TARGET ADJ. EBITDA1 GROWTH = 4-6%

(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosures at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.

Page 18: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Leveraging Flexibility

18

DEPOT MARKETPLACE

Branded retail Foodservice

Flexible fixed asset base can produce and distribute product for any market

IDPBAKERY

HOW WE GO TO MARKET

VERSATILITY TO MEET CHANGING DEMAND

Store branded retail

Page 19: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Optimizing Network to Prioritize Margins

19

Portfolio strategy determines targeted brands and segments

• Pivot capacity to most powerful brands

• Maximize revenue and margin potential

Optimize and reallocate capacity to increase network utilization

• Closed three bakeries since start of Project Centennial

• Transitioned volume to more-efficient lines

Repurposed two bakeries to meet growing DKB demand

• Tuscaloosa, AL and Lynchburg, VA converted to organic production

• Lynchburg bakery expected to open in September 2020

Page 20: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Network Consolidation

20

Lower cost to serve market

Fewer transport miles

Additional network capacity

BENEFITS

BAKERY

DEPOT

MARKET

PREVIOUS TODAY

Page 21: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Increasing Product Profitability

21

• SKU rationalization

• Improved ordering

• Lowering costs and increasing realized capacity

Realized~130 hours per weekin additional capacity, equivalent to an additional bakery

STALE REDUCTION

Page 22: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Shifting Mix to Enhance Profitability

22

Resulting inhigher mix of branded retail products

and more profitable mix of store

branded and foodservice business

Be more selective about type and quality

of other business we accept

Reduce percentage of store branded and foodservice products: Allows us to negotiate better pricing terms on the business we keep….

Increasing production of branded

retail means we can….

&

Page 23: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Driving Brand Relevance

Strategic Priorities

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain

Optimization

Driving Brand Relevance

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Acquisition Strategy

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

Page 24: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Key Takeaways

24

Attractive category with high

penetration and frequency

Relevance ensures our brands

resonate with consumers

Foundational consumer research informs

marketing and innovation strategy

Digital capabilities / digital shelf

RELEVANCE PRESENCE GROWTH

Page 25: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Fundamentals Stand Out Among Grocery Categories

25

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.0

12.2

12.4

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

7/16/17 11/5/17 2/25/18 6/17/18 10/7/18 1/27/19 5/19/19 9/8/19 12/29/19

% HH Buying Purchase Cycle - Xactions Avg

(1) Willard Bishop SuperStudy 2019(2) Total US: IRI Panel Data 3/1/20, Rolling 13-week periods(3) Total US: IRI Multi Outlet, Quarterly Results

BRANDED CATEGORY SHARE3

$1.38

$2.91

$5.26 $5.87

$-

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

StoreBrand

Nature'sOwn

DKB Canyon

• Large, stable category with sales of $24B+

• Present in 98% of households; buy the category every 12 days

• Consumers willing to pay premium for brands

• Most profitable category for retailers1

TOTAL US BREAD CATEGORY HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION & PURCHASE CYCLE FREQUENCY (DAYS)2

ATTRACTIVE BRAND ECONOMICS

75.8%76.4% 76.7%

79.7%

Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020

Page 26: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Creating Brand Relevance

26

ANNUALIZED OPPORTUNITY

>$350MRelevance

• Generate awareness

• Drive trial

• Convert to repeat

• Disrupt via innovation

Repeat (loyalists)

Trial

Aided and Unaided Awareness

Brand Positioning & Messaging

Targeting brand benefits to meet consumer desires

Delivering advertising via media mix to create awareness

Converting awareness to trial and repeat

Page 27: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Consumer Insight-Driven Messaging to Create Brand Relevance

27

INSPIRINGCHILDLIKE WONDER

BAKING HAPPY AND HEALTHY

INTO EVERY HOME

Developing relevant brand positioning through a deep understanding of consumers’ minds and needs

Messaging reflects the consumers’ desire for functional and emotional benefits

Consumer Messaging

Brand StrategyReaching the consumer though relevance

Brand ArchitectureVision, positioning, personality

Foundational ResearchUnlocking the consumers’ minds and needs

Page 28: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Focus on Consumer Needs

28

At the intersection of each Consumer Segment and Need State:

• Defining the size of the opportunity and the brand’s share of occasions.

• Assessing the fit of every brand for the need and balancing the portfolio approach

Size

ShareFit

Portfolio

ACTIVEINFLUENCERS

BUSYBUDGETERS

BREADAVOIDERS

HEALTHESTABLISHED

FUNCTIONALEATERS

TRADITIONAL CONNECTION

HEALTHIER CHOICES

QUICK AND SIMPLE

HUNGERRELIEF

COMFORT AND BONDING

PERSONAL INDULGENCE

BITES OF ADVENTURE

Page 29: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Building Awareness Is Vital

29

0

300

600

900

Au

dio

/ O

OH

Dis

pla

y

Pri

nt

Sho

pp

er

Soci

al

Spo

t R

adio

Vid

eo

You

Tub

e

2019 2020

Source: IRI Panel Measures, Total US – 52 Week Ending 3/22/20

DRIVING AWARENESS: MESSAGING AND POSITIONING FOR THE CORE CONSUMER1

AIDED 70%

UNAIDED 15%

AIDED 85%

UNAIDED 35%AIDED 29%

UNAIDED 10%

AIDED 75%

UNAIDED 29%

AIDED 71%

UNAIDED 29%

PEER 1 PEER 2

Imp

ress

ion

s (m

illio

ns)

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Flowers’ Brands Have Strong Upside Opportunity For Growth

30Source: IRI Panel Measures, Total US – 52 Weeks Ending 3/22/20

0

20

40

60

80

100

% Hhld Penetration

0

20

40

60

80

100

% Repeaters

0

10

20

30

40

50

Purchase Cycle (Days)

Driving growth through brand relevance

• Increase household penetration

• Increase consumer loyalty (% repeat)

• Drive consumption (lower # of days in purchase cycle)

0

50

100

% Hhld Penetration

NATURE’S OWN PENETRATION

Total US

31.9%

South Region

52.8%

DRIVE HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION FOR FLO BRANDS

DRIVE HIGHER CONSUMPTION(REDUCE PURCHASE CYCLE)

INCREASE LOYALTY RATE SOUTHERN IRI REGION: PENETRATION FLO BRANDS

Bread Category

Nature’s Own

Wonder

Dave’s Killer Bread

Peer 1

Peer 2

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Engaging the Changing Consumer with E-Commerce

31

(1) IRI E-Commerce and Instacart data(2) IRI Period 2, 2020

2Q’19 2Q’20Pre-Covid ‘202

E-COMMERCE AS % OF BREAD OMNICHANNEL SALES1

• Forced adoption of e-commerce due to COVID-19 driving large shift in retail channel

• Expect increased trial to drive meaningful growth in enduring users

• E-commerce benefits strong brands as awareness and search are key elements of online shopping

• Developing new capabilities in Marketing and Sales Digitization to leverage shift in consumer habits

Driving to win digital consideration and shelf

4.2%

6.8%

7.8% 7.8%

3Q’20

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Consumer Acquisition and Retention Through Marketing

32

Seizing on consumers’ desires for Freshness

Nature’s Own drives home the Unique Selling Proposition: “Scratch to Shelf in about 48 hours”

Page 33: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Strategic Priorities

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain

Optimization

Driving Brand Relevance

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Acquisition Strategy

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Page 34: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Key Takeaways

34

Leverage innovation to create brand presence

in underdeveloped segments

Clarified portfolio strategy

Expand brand presence in underdeveloped geographies

through distribution and penetration

Drive brand presence with our retail partners

in a changing marketplace

RELEVANCE PRESENCE GROWTH

Page 35: Jefferies Virtual West Coast Consumer ... - Flowers Foods/media/Files/F/... · FLOWERS [ RANDED PRODUTS DRIVING TOP LINE CAGR 4.9% $2.2B $1.6B $2.8B $1.5B ... See non-GAAP disclosure

Capitalizing on Recent Trends

35

Increased household penetration and increased consumption are driving category growth

Household penetration for FLO brands up 250 BPS

7.2%

3.4%

10.5%

5.9%

14.7%11.9%

DEPT-GENERAL FOOD FRESH PACKAGED BREADS FLOWERS BREAD

(1) IRI Scan and Panel Data - Flowers Custom Database 12 Weeks Ending 10-04-2020(2) IRI Scan and Panel Data - Flowers Custom Database 52 Weeks Ending 11-01-2020

DOLLAR SALES, % CHANGE VS YA1 VOLUME SALES, % CHANGE VS YA1

98.2

54.8

98.1

58.1

Fresh Packaged Breads Category Flowers Bread

Year Ago Cal. Yr.

% OF HOUSEHOLDS BUYING2

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PREMIUM GROWTH BRANDS

Drive premiumization of category

MAINSTREAM BRANDS

Drive premium end of mainstream consumption

Drive value end of mainstream consumption

STRONG REGIONAL BRANDS

Win locally with strong regional brands

Driving Brand Presence with a Clear Portfolio Strategy

36

Clarified roles for our brands, channels, and categories

• Expand premium growth brands, win with mainstream brands, and compete locally with strong regional brands

• Align growth maps and brand strategies with network optimization plans

• Rationalizing brands and SKUs

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Expanding Brand Presence Geographically

37

Under-developed markets offer huge growth potential

• Focused approach

• Expand breadth and depth of distribution

• Drive awareness, trial, and repeat with increased advertising and shopper marketing

• Intense focus by our DSD sales organization and IDPs

(1) IRI MULO, Calendar Year 2019

FLOWERS DOLLAR SHARE OF FRESH PACKAGED BREAD CATEGORY1

Capitalizing on brand growth potential by increasing presence

27.9 – 49.7

17.1 – 27.8

9.5 – 17.0

5.8 – 9.4

0.0 – 5.8

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Leveraging Innovation to Create Presence in Adjacent Segments

38

Consumers expect our brands to offer solutions beyond loaf 26.6

9.8

3.4

30.2

10.46.9

LOAF SANDWICH BUNS/ROLLS BREAKFAST ITEMS

TTM, 3 Years Ago TTM

LOAF SANDWICH BUNS/ROLLS BREAKFAST ITEMS

Segment Size (Annual) $7.9 B $3.7 B $2.4 B

Flowers 3 Year $ Sales CAGR + 7.5% + 6.6% + 51.8%

(1) IRI Scan Data - Flowers Custom Database 12 Weeks Ending 10-04-2020, 52 Weeks Ending 11-08-2020 for annual numbers

FLOWERS DOLLAR SHARE1

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Driving Brand Presence with Retail Partners

39

• Consumer-relevant brands appeal to a broad range of consumer demographics

• Brand portfolio delivers incremental category sales and margin growth

• Provide best-in-class category leadership as we navigate uncertain times

(1) IRI Panel Data Total US Category % Share of Requirements, 52 weeks ending 11/01/2020. Peers are leading competitive national bread brands

BRAND LOYALTY - % OF BUYER CATEGORY DOLLARS SPENT WITHIN BRAND1

18.3

8.1

21.2

24.2

15.0 14.3 15.812.3

Nature's Own Wonder Dave's Killer Bread Canyon Bakehouse Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

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Strategic Priorities

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain

Optimization

Driving Brand Relevance

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Acquisition Strategy

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

Acquisition Strategy

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Key Takeaways

41

Partner with innovation team to identify

opportunities

Positioned for growth with strong free cash

flow, balance sheet, and M&A track record

Structured approach drives

repeatable process

Explore opportunities in core and grain-based adjacencies

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Positioned for Growth Through M&A

42

$82

$566

$-

$10 0

$20 0

$30 0

$40 0

$50 0

$60 0

TTM-Q3'15 TTM-Q3'20

$29

$87

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$10 0

TTM-Q3'18 TTM-Q3'20

#1 Gluten-free Loaf

Proven track record of acquiring and growing differentiated bakery brands

Strong balance sheet and cash flow generation enable investment in further growth

DAVE'S KILLER BREAD TRACKED RETAIL SALES (M)

CANYON BAKEHOUSE TRACKED RETAIL SALES (M)

#1 Organic Loaf

5YR CAGR

+47%

2YR CAGR

+73%

Source: IRI Scan Data - Flowers Custom Database

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Structured Approach to M&A

43

Clearly defined, repeatable process Link between corporate

development, strategy, and innovation

Explicit strategic criteria

Steady stream of opportunities

M&A is a capability

Integration is crucial

Monitoring and post-mortems

Deep industry relationships

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44

Role of Smart M&A

Partner with innovation team to identify opportunities beyond our core

SOLIDIFY THE CORE• Infrastructure and

distribution growth in underdeveloped markets

• Leverage existing brands

INNOVATIVE ADJACENCIES• Gain exposure to growing,

underdeveloped segments and innovative brands

• Focus on platform assets that bring new capabilities

GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION• Fill in existing markets

• Expand into newer markets

ALTERNATIVE DEAL STRUCTURES• Joint ventures

• Minority investments

• Strategic partnerships

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Strategic Priorities

Growth Imperatives & Supply Chain

Optimization

Driving Brand Relevance

Brand Portfolio Strategy

Acquisition Strategy

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

Financial Review & Capital Allocation

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Key Takeaways

46

Solid Q3 results, positive 2020

outlook

Strong free cash flow, consistent

capital allocation

Long-term targets supported by leading

brands and growth strategy

Growth roadmap highlights long-

term opportunity

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Q3 2020 Financial Highlights

47

$95

$116

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q3'19 Q3'20

11.8%Margin9.8%

Margin

+22%

GROWTH

+2.4%

GROWTH

COMPONENTS OF Q3’20 SALES GROWTH (MILLIONS) ADJUSTED EBITDA (MILLIONS)1

• Sales increase reflecting the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, new product introductions, lower promotional activity, and a reduction in product returns

• Mix shift to branded retail products drove cost leverage and margin increase

(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.

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NET SALES$989.7M +2.4% v PY

• Price/Mix +8.1%; Volume -5.7%

• Growth from branded retail more than offsetting lower store-branded retail and foodservice sales

Q3 2020 Financial Review

48

ADJ. EBITDA1

$116.4M +22.4% v PY

• 11.8% of sales, up 200 bps

• Increased primarily due to improved product mix, partially offset by higher employee incentive costs and IDP fees

CASH FLOWS - YTDDividends

$124.9MCash from Ops

$364.4M

Capex

$68.3M

GAAP DILUTED EPS$0.21 +$0.01 v PY

ADJ. DILUTED EPS2

$0.29 +$0.07 v PY

Increased adj. EBITDA partially offset by higher tax rate

(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization (EBITDA), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.(2) Earnings per share (EPS), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this slide presentation.

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Fiscal 2020 Guidance (Updated Nov 5, 2020)

49(1) Week 53 expected to contribute 1.5% of overall sales growth.(2) Adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this presentation.

Fiscal 2020 Q4 Considerations

• Food-at-home consumption remains elevated, though moderating

• Foodservice stabilizing and beginning to recover, still well below normal

• Work-from-home and back-to-school trajectory

• Navigating pandemic impact on bakery operations

SALES GROWTH1 ADJ. EPS2

OTHER

+5.5% to +6.0% $1.23 to $1.28

Depreciation & amortization —$140 to $145 million

Net interest expense —$11 million

Effective tax rate —Approx. 24.0% to 24.5%

Diluted shares outstanding —Approx. 212.5 million

Capital expenditures —$85 to $95 million

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50

Steady Free Cash Flow

(1) Operating Cash flow minus Capital Expenditures. See non-GAAP reconciliations at the end of this presentation.(2) As of Q3 2020

$245 $255

$222 $196

$263

$352

$-

$50

$10 0

$15 0

$20 0

$25 0

$30 0

$35 0

$40 0

FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 LTM-20

Strong free cash flow growth supports investments in the business, M&A strategy and capital returns

FREE CASH FLOW1 TO FUEL ACCRETIVE INVESTMENTS (MILLIONS)

Cash Flow Drivers

• Growing sales

• Focus on cash margins

• Predictable capex

2

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Consistent Capital Allocation

51

Capital Allocation Principles:• Capex to support core

business growth

• Maintain investment grade credit rating

• Support strong dividend

• Smart, disciplined acquisitions

• Opportunistic share repurchases

$120 $131 $141 $150 $160 $165

$7 $126 $3 $2 $7 $1

$395

$200

$-

$10 0

$20 0

$30 0

$40 0

$50 0

$60 0

FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 LTM-20

Dividends Share Repurchases

Cash for Acquisitions

CAPITAL ALLOCATION (MILLIONS)

(1) As of Q3 2020

1

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Track Record of De-Leveraging Post-M&A

52(1) Excludes lease liabilities

TOTAL DEBT1 (MILLIONS)Maintaining flexibility to capitalize on value-creating opportunities

$984 $928

$805

$980

$867

FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19

1968 to 2020: MORE THAN 100 ACQUISITIONS

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Long Track Record of Growth

53

SALES GROWTH COMPONENTS1 (MILLIONS)

10yr CAGR+5.3%

$-

$5.0 0

$10 .00

$15 .00

$20 .00

$25 .00

Nov'10

Nov'11

Nov'12

Nov'13

Nov'14

Nov'15

Nov'16

Nov'17

Nov'18

Nov'19

Nov'20

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

1. Source: Company filings as of Q3 2020.2. Total Shareholder Return (TSR) assumes reinvestment of dividends. Source: NASDAQ3. Acquisition category includes sales for 12 months following purchase

10yr TSR2

+10.1%

3

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Key Drivers to Achieving our Long-term Growth Targets

54

LONG-TERM GROWTH TARGETS1

+1-2%

SALES

+4-6%

ADJ. EBITDA2

+7-9%

ADJ. EPS3

Focus on leading, iconic brands to grow share

Portfolio strategy prioritizes higher-priced, higher-profit products and customers

Supply chain optimization enhances operating leverage, streamlines fixed cost structure

Strong free cash flow generation provides fuel for accretive M&A, opportunistic share repurchases, and dividends

(1) Sales and adjusted EBITDA targets reflect organic business growth; adjusted EPS target includes the potential impact of future M&A and share repurchases.(2) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization (EBITDA), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a

discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.(3) Earnings per share (EPS), adjusted for matters affecting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure at the end of this slide presentation for a discussion of these forward-looking, long-term targets.

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Roadmap to Delivering Long-term Targets

FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

• Favorable mix shift

• Accelerate optimization initiatives

• Performance above long-term targets

• 53-week year

• Adjust to the new-normal

• Deliver operational improvements

• Expected headwinds as consumer behavior normalizes

• 52-week year

• Brands driving above-category sales growth

• Performance expected in-line with long-term targets

• 52-week year

55

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56

OUR VISION HAS NEVER BEEN CLEARER

Right structure with a passionate team committed to continued success

Emotional connection of fresh bread offers innovative brands the opportunity to appeal powerfully to consumers

Competitive, leading operator with combination of strong brands and scale

Opportunity to grow through product adjacencies, innovation, and M&A

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Information Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures

57

The company prepares its consolidated financial statements in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). However, from time to time, the company may present in its public statements, press releases and SEC filings, non-GAAP financial measures such as, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted selling, distribution and administrative expenses (SD&A), gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization, free cash flow, and the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. The company’s definitions of these non-GAAP measures may differ from similarly titled measures used by others. These non-GAAP measures should be considered supplemental to, and not a substitute for, financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP.

The company defines EBITDA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The company believes that free cash flow provides investors a better understanding of the company’s liquidity position. The company believes that EBITDA is a useful tool for managing the operations of its business and is an indicator of the company's ability to incur and service indebtedness and generate free cash flow. EBITDA is used as the primary performance measure in the company's 2014 Omnibus Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. Furthermore, pursuant to the terms of our credit facility, EBITDA is used to determine the company's compliance with certain financial covenants. The company also believes that EBITDA measures are commonly reported and widely used by investors and other interested parties as measures of a company's operating performance and debt servicing ability because EBITDA measures assist in comparing performance on a consistent basis without regard to depreciation or amortization, which can vary significantly depending upon accounting methods and non-operating factors (such as historical cost). EBITDA is also a widely-accepted financial indicator of a company's ability to incur and service indebtedness.

EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to (a) income from operations or net income (loss) as a measure of operating performance; (b) cash flows provided by operating, investing and financing activities (as determined in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of the company's ability to meet its cash needs; or (c) any other indicator of performance or liquidity that has been determined in accordance with GAAP.

The company defines adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBIT, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted operating income, adjusted EPS, adjusted income tax expense, adjusted SD&A, respectively, excluding the impact of asset impairment charges, Project Centennial consulting costs, lease terminations and legal settlements, acquisition-related costs, and pension plan settlements. Adjusted income tax expense also excludes the impact of tax reform. The company believes that these measures, when considered together with its GAAP financial results, provides management and investors with a more complete understanding of its business operating results, including underlying trends, by excluding the effects of certain charges.

The company defines net debt as total debt less cash and cash equivalents. Net debt to EBITDA is used as a measure of financial leverage employed by the company. The company defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The company believes that free cash flow provides investors a better understanding of the company’s liquidity position. Gross margin excluding depreciation and amortization is used as a performance measure to provide additional transparent information regarding our results of operations on a consolidated and segment basis. Changes in depreciation and amortization are separately discussed and include depreciation and amortization for materials, supplies, labor and other production costs and operating activities.

Presentation of gross margin includes depreciation and amortization in the materials, supplies, labor and other production costs according to GAAP. Our method of presenting gross margin excludes the depreciation and amortization components, as discussed above.

The reconciliations attached provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures used in this presentation or release to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. No reconciliation of the long-term targets for adjusted EBITDA or Adjusted EPS is included in this presentation because we are unable to quantify certain amounts that would be required to be included in the GAAP measure without unreasonable efforts. In addition, the company believes such reconciliations would imply a degree of precision that would be confusing or misleading to investors.

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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

58

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59

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

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60

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

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61

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

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62

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

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63

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

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64

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

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65

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

66

Time Period

Cash Provided by

Operating Activities

Purchase of Plant, Property

and Equipment Free Cash Flow

3Q20 TTM 453,288$ 101,345$ 351,943$

FY19 366,952 103,685 263,267

FY18 295,893 99,422 196,471

FY17 297,389 75,232 222,157

FY16 356,562 101,727 254,835

FY15 335,674 90,773 244,901

Reconciliation of Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Free Cash Flow* (000s omitted)

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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

67

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68

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures