japan clean air program (jcap) · japan clean air program. assumptions for estimating vehicle...

1

Japan Clean Air Program (JCAP)

Satoshi YamazakiToyota Central R&D Labs. Inc.

Japan Clean Air Program.

Preliminary Modeling Study of Vehicle Emission Impacts on Air Quality

2

Objective of This Study

・・・・Objective of this study is to clear the　　　　effectiveness of vehicle emission reduction　　　　for the air quality improvement in Tokyo urban area.

・・・・This report focuses on influence of Diesel vehicle emissions.


3 Air Quality Study in JCAP

Emission Test Data

Motor VehicleEmission Inventory

System

Vehicles ActivityData

Meteorological Data

MeteorologicalModels

Emission Inventoryof Other Sources

Geographical Data

MonitoringStudy

PollutantsConcentration

Experimental Study Chamber Experiment etc.

Urban Air Quality ・Particulate and Aerosol Model Road side Dispersion


4


Estimation of Total Vehicle Emissions

x < Temperature Correction Factor> x

5


Emission Factors Evaluated in JCAP

⊕

⊕ ⊕

⊕⊕ ⊕

♦

♦♦

♦♦

0

0.5

1

1.5

⊕ J-EPA Recommended♦ JCAP Data

⊕

⊕⊕ ⊕ ⊕ ⊕

♦♦ ♦

♦♦

0

0.2

0.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

⊕

⊕⊕

⊕ ⊕ ⊕

♦♦

♦ ♦ ♦

0

1

2

⊕

⊕⊕ ⊕ ⊕

⊕♦♦ ♦

♦ ♦

0

0.2

0.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

⊕

⊕⊕ ⊕ ⊕ ⊕

♦

♦♦

♦ ♦

0

400

800

0 20 40 60 80 100Average Velocity (km/h)

(Diesel Passenger Car)

CO

(g/k

m)

NO

x (g

/km

)

HC

(g/k

m)

PM (g

/km

)

CO

2 (g

/km

)Average Velocity (km/h)

6

G

G G

G G GJJ J J

JH

H H H

H

B

B BB B

DD D D D

II

I I I

F

F

F F F0

1

2

3

G

J GV01H GV02B GV03D GV06(lean burn)I GV07(lean burn)F GV08

G

G

G

G G GJJ J J

JHH H H

H

B

BB B

B

DD D D D

I

I

II

I

F

FF F

F

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0 20 40 60 80 100

GG G G G GJJ J J JHH

H H H

BB B B B

DD

D

D DI

I

I

I

I

F

F F F F0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

G

GG

G G G

J

JJ J J

H

HH

HH

B

BB

B B

DD

DD D

I

II

I I

F

FF

F F

0

400

800

0 20 40 60 80 100


Emission Factors Evaluated in JCAP(Gasoline Passenger Car)

CO

(g/k

m)

NO

x (g

/km

)

HC

(g/k

m)

CO

2 (g

/km

)

Average Velocity (km/h)

J-EPA Recommended

7

Vehicle Activity in Tokyo Urban Area

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 5 10 20 30 40 50 75 100

150

200

300

Trip Length km

Freq

uenc

y

%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0-1

2-3

4-5

6-7

8-9

10-1

112

-13

14-1

516

-17

18-1

920

-21

22-2

3

Hour of Day

Num

ber o

f Trip

8Distribution ofNOx and PM Emission from Vehicle

0369

NOx00.20.40.60.81

PM


(Ton/Day/Grid) (Ton/Day/Grid)

9

Transportation volume：：：： Based on the growth rate recommended by Ministry of Construction and Tokyo Metropolitan Government. (increase +19.2% from year 1994)

Emission factor：：：： Considered vehicle exhaust emission controls to be taken in future.

Gasoline Vehicle (2000~2002 Regulation)Diesel Vehicle (1997~1999 Long-term target)Motor Cycles (1998~1999 Regulation)


Assumptions for Estimating Vehicle Emissions in 2010

10

Summer Winter (Automobile NOx Law Area)

HC NOx HC SPM

Estimation of Vehicle Emissions(without Evap. Emissions)

0

125

250

375

500

625

1990

2010

Year

NO

x Em

issi

on fr

om V

ehic

les

(t/da

y)

0

100

200

300

1994

2010

Year

NO

x Em

issi

on fr

om V

ehic

les

(t/da

y)

0

100

200

30019

90

2010

Year

HC

Em

issi

on fr

om V

ehic

les

(t/da

y)

Motorcycle

DieselVehicleGasolineVehicle

0

100

200

1994

2010

Year

HC

Em

issi

on fr

om V

ehic

les

(t/da

y)

0

10

20

30

1994

2010

Year

SPM

Em

issi

on fr

om V

ehic

les

(t/da

y)


NOx

11

Ship：：：： consider growth of number, no changes of emission factors

Air Plane:consider growth of number, with limitation of airport capacity

Point Sources ・・・・Civil：：：：consider structural changes of energy consumption ・・・・Industry：：：：estimation of future trend of energy consumption ・・・・Power Plant ：：：：Consider new power plant projects, effect of low NOx combustion technology included

HC evaporation：：：：based on growth of energy consumption of industry

NH3：：：：consider agriculture and population growth

Methodology for Estimating Emissions from Other Sources


12 Estimation of Total Emissions

(Summer)

NOx HC

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990

2010

Year

Tota

l NO

x Em

issi

on (t

/day

)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1990

2010

Year

Tota

l HC

Em

issi

on (t

/day

)

Biogenic EmissionsDry CleaningOther SolventsRubber IndustriesAdhesive UseDegreasingPrintingPaintingPetro-Chemical PlantOil Refinery PlantGasoline VaporAirplaneShipIndustrial PlantPower PlantMotorcycleDiesel VehicleGasoline Vehicle V

ehic

les

Org

anic

Sol

vent

Eva

pora

tion

0

5000

10000

1994

2010

Year

O3 fo

rmin

g R

eact

ivity

by

MIR

met

hod

(tO3)

Airplane

Ship

IndustrialPlantPower Plant

Motorcycle


Vehi

cles


13Estimation of Total Emissions

(Winter, Automobile NOx Regulation Area)

Biogenic EmissionsDry CleaningOther SolventsRubber IndustriesAdhesive UseDegreasingPrintingPaintingPetro-Chemical PlantOil Refinery PlantGasoline VaporAirplaneShipIndustrial PlantPower PlantMotorcycleDiesel VehicleGasoline Vehicle V

ehic

les

Org

anic

Sol

vent

Eva

pora

tion

NOx HC SPM, EC

0

200

400

600

1994

2010

Year

Tota

l NO

x Em

issi

on (t

/day

)

Airplane

Ship

IndustrialPlantPower Plant

Motorcycle


Vehi

cles

0

500

1000

1500

1994

2010

Year

Tota

l HC

Em

issi

on (t

/day

)

0

50

100

1994

(SPM

)

2010

(EC

)

Year

Tota

l SPM

and

EC

Em

issi

on (t

/day

)

Airplane

Ship

Industrial Plant

Power Plant

Tire Were

RoadResuspensionVehicle Exhaust


14

Target Pollutants : Summer season --- O3 Winter season --- NO2, SPM (as Elemental Carbon)

3D Grid Transport/Reaction Program: Based on UAM (Urban Airshed Model) CIT ( Caltech Model)

Turbulent Diffusion Coefficient were Modified

Air Quality Simulation


Meteorological input data: NIRE mesoscale model RAMS Program

15


0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15

Time (h)Time (h)Time (h)Time (h)

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15


0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.1

0.15


0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.1

0.15


0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15


BBBBBBB

B

BB

B

BB

BB

BB

BBBBBB

BBB

BB

BBBB

BBBB

B

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BBBB

BB

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BBB

B

BBBBBBB

BB

BBBBBBBB

BBBB

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

B



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BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

BBB

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B

BBB

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0.05

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0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

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ObservedCalculated(interpolated boundary condition)Calculated(measured boundary condition)

Evaluation of Model Performance(O3, Summer)

16

Evaluation of Model Performance

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J Observed concentrationObserved concentrationObserved concentrationObserved concentrationPredicted concentrationPredicted concentrationPredicted concentrationPredicted concentration

JJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJ

J

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJ

J

JJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJJ

J

J

J

JJJJJJJ

JJJJJJ

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15


UrawaUrawaUrawaUrawaJJJJJJ

JJ

JJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJJ

JJ

JJ

JJJJ

JJJJJJJJJJ

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

20

40

60

80

100


UrawaUrawaUrawaUrawaJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJ

J

JJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJ

J

JJJJJJ

J

J

JJJJJJJ

J

JJ

J

JJJJJJJJJJJ

J

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15


TokyoTokyoTokyoTokyo

JJ

JJJJJJ

JJ

JJ

JJJJJJ

JJ

JJJJJJ

JJJJ

JJ

JJ

JJ

JJ

JJ

JJJJ

JJ

JJ

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

20

40

60

80

100


TokyoTokyoTokyoTokyo

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJ

JJJJJJJ

JJJJJJ

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15


HachioujiHachioujiHachioujiHachiouji

JJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJ

J

JJJJJJ

J

J

JJJJJJJJ

J

J

J

JJJJJJ

JJJJJJ

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15


YokohamaYokohamaYokohamaYokohama

JJJJ

JJJJ

JJ

JJ

JJJJ

JJJJJJ

J JJJJJJJJJ

JJ

JJ

JJJJ

JJJJJJJJ

0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

20

40

60

80

100


FuchuFuchuFuchuFuchu

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

JJJJJJJJJ

J

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

J

J

J

JJJJJJ

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0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 180

0.05

0.10

0.15


ChibaChibaChibaChiba

NONONONO2222　←→　　←→　　←→　　←→　ECECECEC

Automobile NOx LawAutomobile NOx LawAutomobile NOx LawAutomobile NOx Lawspecified Areaspecified Areaspecified Areaspecified Area


(NOx,EC, Winter)

17

0.3530.0),(

),(),(11 1

～<−

∑∑= =

N

i

H

j obs

calobs

jiCjiCjiC

NTNGE : Normalized Gross Error =

0.15)05.0(),(

),(),(11 1

～±

18


Peak O3Concentration

0 15010050

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 20100

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010

Red

uctio

n of

Pea

k O

3

Red

uctio

n of

“G

rids

x H

ours

”

N

umbe

r ove

r 120

ppb

Improvement of Air Quality in 2010

(ppb)

(Summer O3, Under Current Regulation)

19


0 150100 (ppb)50

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

1994 2010

Red

uctio

n of

24h

Ave

rage

d N

O2

1994 2010

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

1994 2010Red

uctio

n of

“G

rids

x H

ours

”

N

umbe

r ove

r 60p

pb

Red

uctio

n of

24h

Ave

rage

d E

.C.

24h Averaged NO2 Concentration

Improvement of Air Quality in 2010(Winter NO2, EC Under Current Regulation)

20

NO

x Em

issi

on R

educ

tion

Rat

e (%

)

Contour Map for O3 Improvement byTotal NOx/HC Emission Reduction

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

100

80

60

40

20

100 80 60 40 20 0

0

0

50100

150200

100

80

60

40

20

0

100 80 60 40 20 0

Number of Grids over 120ppb x Hours

HC Emission Reduction Rate (%)

BiogenicHC

BiogenicHC

Reduction Rate of Peak O3 Concentration (%)


NO

x Em

issi

on R

educ

tion

Rat

e (%

)


2500

Improvement by Diesel EmissionReduction

0

Improvement by Vehicle EmissionReduction

21


NO

x Em

issi

on R

educ

tion

Rat

e (%

)

0

5

1015 20

25

100

80

60

40

20

0

100 80 60 40 20 0

NO2

Reduction Rate of24-hour Averaged

EC Concentration (%)

SPM

Em

issi

on R

educ

tion

Rat

e (%

)

0 -20 -40 -60 -80-100

0

-30

-50

-70

-100

Reduction Rate (%)

0

30

50

70

100

Reduction Rate of24-hour Averaged

NO2 Concentration (%)

Ratio of Grids overNO2 Environmental

Quality Standard (%)

-70-60-50-40

-30

-20

-10

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

100 80 60 40 20 0 NO

x Em

issi

on R

educ

tion

Rat

e (%

)


Contour Map for NO2 and EC Improvement byTotal NOx/HC Emission Reduction


E.C

22

Conclusion -1-

1. Sources of Total Mass Emissions1) 50% of NOx and 10% of HC to total mass Emissions are caused by vehicles including motorcycles.

2) 70% of the NOx Emission from vehicles is caused by Diesel.

3) more than 50% to total HC emissions is caused by Painting.

4)For the reduction of NOx emissions, reduction of emissions from Industrial plants is also effective.


Air quality simulation study was conducted for Tokyo urban area in 2010, and followings were cleared

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2. Effect of Diesel Emissions Reduction on Air Quality 1) Reduction of both HC and NOx from Diesel vehicle is effective to reduce peak O3 concentrations in summer.

2) Reduction of NOx from Diesel is effective to reduce 24-hour averaged NO2 concentration in winter, while, reduction of HC shows little effect.

3) SPM concentration in winter shows proportional changes to the reduction of Diesel vehicle emission. (Only elemental carbon was considered in this study. It should be extended to secondary particles in future study.)

Conclusion -2-


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Future Studies1. Study for air quality along urban main roads Development of new models, Construction of input data

2. Extension to secondary particle matters Development of secondary particle models, Construction of input data

3. Study of evaluation methodology of air quality Evaluation by exposure population, etc.

4. Improvement of reliability of air quality simulation Atmospheric observation study as validation of simulation models Improvement of accuracy of emission inventory


Preliminary Modeling Study of Vehicle Emission Impacts on Air Qualityobjective of this studyAir Quality Study in JCAPEstimation of Total Vehicle EmissionsEmission Factors Evaluated in JCAP (Diesel Passenger Car)Emission Factors Evaluated in JCAP (Gasoline Passenger Car)Vehicle Activity in Tokyo Urban AreaDistribution of NOx and PM Emission from VehicleAssumptions for Estimating Vehicle Emissions in 2010Estimation of Vehicle Emissions (without Evap. Emissions)Methodology for Estimating Emissions from Other SourcesEstimation of Total Emissions (Summer)Estimation of Total Emissions (Winter, Automobile NOx Regulation Area)Air Quality SimulationEvaluation of Model Performance(03,Summer)Evaluation of Model Performance (NOx,EC,Winter)Quantitative Evaluation of Model PerformanceImprovement of Air Quality in 2010 (Summer O3, Under Current Regulation)Improvement of Air Quality in 2010 (Winter NO2, EC Under Current Regulation)Contour Map for O3 Improvement by Total NOx/HC Emission ReductionContour Map for NO2 and EC Improvement by Total NOx/ HC Emission ReductionConclusion -1-Conclusion -2-Future Studies

japan clean air program (jcap) · japan clean air program. assumptions for estimating vehicle...

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