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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Spending

January Consumer Spending ReportExpectations and Confidence Rebound but January Consumer Spending Growth Lags

Jean Crumrine and Paul Carton

Overview: A January ChangeWave survey shows U.S. consumer expectations and confidence surging this month as Americans grow more upbeat about the overall direction of the economy. That said, spending growth is lower this month in comparison to the seasonal uptick we reported in December. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.

In the aftermath of the holidays, consumer electronics spending has slowed this month. Restaurant spending is also registering a seasonal decline.

The January 2-15 survey of 2,385 U.S. consumers shows the fiscal cliff tax resolution earlier this month is causing one-in-three respondents (35%) to say they’ll spend less as a result. Much of this is likely attributable to the 2% pay cut Americans are feeling as the 2010 Social Security payroll tax holiday expires.

Surge in Consumer Expectations and Confidence The good news for January is a positive jump in consumer expectations and confidence – both bouncing back from the downticks we had picked up in December.

Consumer Expectations. A total of 27% of respondents think the overall direction of the U.S. economy will improve over the next 90 days, 8-pts better than a month ago. And while 32% still believe it will worsen – that’s a major 15-pt improvement from December.

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. ©2013 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

January 23, 2013

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingStock Market Confidence. Similarly, 28% now say they’re More Confident in the stock market than they were 90 days ago – a 12-pt jump since December. Three-in-ten (31%) say they’re Less Confident, but that’s a huge 18-pt improvement from previously. All-told it’s an extraordinary 30-pt upswing since the previous survey.

Importantly, these are the best readings for consumer expectations and confidence in nine months.

We also asked respondents about their investing plans, and U.S. Stocks (+4; up 6-pts) are registering a net money inflow, as are Non-U.S. Stocks (+7; up 8-pts).

Spending Outlook for JanuaryThe consumer picture looks different when it comes to actual spending. One-in-five (22%) U.S. respondents say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – down 5-pts since our December holiday survey. Another 35% say they'll spend less, 3-pts worse than previously.


2

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingPutting the Findings in Context. As the following chart shows, spending growth is lower this month in the aftermath of the holidays. Note our January consumer surveys in 2011 and 2012 also registered a similar decline in spending growth.

On a positive note, if the trend of the previous two years repeats, we can expect more upbeat news starting next month.

Individual Spending Categories

In the aftermath of the holidays, Consumer Electronics spending has slowed this month – with 15% saying they’ll spend more on electronics going forward and 31% less. While this represents a major 13-pt decline since December, it’s still better than the 16-pt seasonal drop of a year ago.

Restaurant spending is also registering a seasonal decline – down a net 7-pts in January. In other categories, Durable Goods has declined 1-pt since December, but Travel/ Vacation, Autos and Household Repairs are each up 1-pt.

Year-to-Year Comparison of Change in Net Difference Scores: January 2013 vs. January 2012January

2013 Change in

Net Difference

Score(Jan ’13 vs.

Dec ’12)

January 2012

Change in Net

Difference Score

(Jan ’12 vs.Dec ’11)

Healthcare Services +3 +2Household Repairs/Improvements +1 +2Automobile Purchase +1 0Travel/Vacation +1 +1Durable Goods for the Home -1 -2Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment -7 -3Consumer Electronics -13 -16

We note that Healthcare Services has jumped 3-pts this month.


3


Fiscal Cliff Issue Continues to Pose ThreatPrevious ChangeWave reports have shown fiscal cliff uncertainty was having a damaging impact on the U.S. consumer economy. But now that Congress has passed a last minute tax deal that at least temporarily averts the fiscal cliff, what if anything has changed?

To find out, we asked consumers how the new tax agreement was impacting their discretionary spending.

Thinking about your own discretionary spending over the next 90 days, does the Congressional agreement on taxes make you more likely to increase your discretionary spending, decrease your discretionary spending, or is it having no impact on your discretionary spending over the next 90 days?

Current Survey Jan ‘13

More Likely to Decrease Spending for Next 90 Days Because Fiscal Cliff Agreement

35%

More Likely to Increase Spending for Next 90 Days Because of Fiscal Cliff Agreement

4%

No Impact on My Spending for Next 90 Days 58%Don’t Know 4%

Worryingly, 35% say they’re more likely to Decrease spending for the next 90 days because of the Congressional fiscal cliff agreement. Only 4% say Increase.

Clearly, the January 1st agreement hasn’t done much thus far to ease consumer concerns regarding the fiscal cliff. Much of this is likely attributable to the 2% pay cut Americans are feeling as the 2010 Social Security payroll tax holiday expires.

Above and beyond the tax issue, there are other major economic issues that have yet to be addressed – including government spending cuts, the U.S. debt ceiling, and passage of a federal budget.

Bottom line, despite or even possibly because of the January 1st agreement on taxes, consumers say they’re holding back on their actual spending – and the fiscal cliff issue continues to have a negative impact on the consumer economy.

Retailer TrendsIn the aftermath of the holidays, our January survey shows few signs of momentum among major retailers.

Costco (COST) is down 3-pts from December, although spending growth remains slightly higher than a year ago and it still leads the other major retailers going forward.

Walmart (WMT) is seeing a 2-pt decline in growth this month. It’s now at the exact same level it was a year ago.

Target (TGT) is the biggest decliner of all the major retailers – dropping 5-pts this month. Other retailers that are slowing include Kohl’s (KSS; down 4-pts), Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY; down 4-pts), Macy’s (M; down 3-pts), Sears (SHLD; down 2-pts) and TJ Maxx (TJX; down 2-pts).


4


Home Entertainment and Online Shopping Apple (AAPL) is off 3-pts from its December all-time high in the home entertainment market, with 22% saying they'll buy home entertainment products at Apple over the next 90 days.

Amazon (AMZN) is also down 3-pts from its all-time high last month on the home entertainment retail front. Nonetheless, the 48% who say they’ll shop at Amazon for home entertainment and computer networking products is the second highest we’ve seen.

Best Buy (BBY; 28%; down 2-pts) has suffered its second consecutive drop – and is now showing one of their weakest readings ever.

Online Shopping. When we asked consumers the percentage of total retail purchases they’d be making online, they reported online buying would account for 23% of their retail purchases – up from 21% a year ago.


5

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingWe also asked shoppers where they'd be spending their online shopping dollars over the next 90 days:

For each of the following websites, please tell us if you will be spending more money, about the same amount, or less money over the next 90 days compared with the previous 90 days.

MoreMoney

LessMoney

Net Score

SameAmount of

MoneyNo

Money

Amazon.com 18% 13% +5 50% 15%Costco.com 3% 3% 0 16% 67%Samsclub.com 1% 3% -2 5% 78%Yahoo! Shopping 0% 2% -2 4% 80%Sears.com 1% 3% -2 6% 77%Target.com 1% 4% -3 10% 71%Overstock.com 1% 4% -3 6% 75%Walmart.com 1% 5% -4 13% 68%eBay.com 3% 9% -6 24% 52%Best Buy.com 2% 9% -7 14% 63%

With nearly one-in-five consumers (18%) saying they’ll spend more money online at Amazon, the industry leader continues to dwarf all other online retailers.

We also took a closer look at Amazon’s Prime subscription service and found two-thirds (67%) of respondents who subscribe say they’re Very Satisfied with their subscription. Another 30% say they’re Somewhat Satisfied. Importantly, nine-in-ten (89%) say they’re likely to renew their subscription when it expires (63% Very Likely; 26% Somewhat Likely) – up 5-pts since October.

Bottom Line: The good news is consumer confidence and expectations are surging in the first month of 2013 – bouncing back from last month’s decline. That said, spending growth is lower this month after the seasonal uptick we reported in December.

Importantly, the January 1st fiscal cliff tax resolution has resulted in one-in-three respondents (35%) saying they’re going to spend less because of it. Much of this is likely attributable to the 2% pay cut Americans are feeling as the 2010 Social Security payroll tax holiday expires.


6


Summary of Key Findings

The ChangeWave Research Network is a group of 25,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries—credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, and converts the information into proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.


7

… But January U.S. Consumer Spending Growth Lags Only 22% of say they’ll

spend More Money over next 90 days than year ago – down 5-pts since December

35% say they’ll spend Less Money – 3-pts worse

Electronics and Restaurant Spending Slows Consumer Electronics (-13) Restaurants (-7)

Other Categories Hold Steady Household Repairs (+1) Travel Vacation (+1) Autos (+1) Durable Goods (-1)

Fiscal Cliff Issue Still Having Negative Impact on Consumer Economy 35% say they’re more likely to

Decrease spending during next 90 days because of fiscal cliff agreement

Retail Store TrendsMost Down After the Holidays Costco (down 3-pts) still leads

in terms of spending growth Walmart (down 2-pts) TJ Maxx (down 2-pts) Sears (down 2-pts) Macy’s (down 3-pts) Bed, Bath&Beyond (down 4-

pts) Kohl’s (down 4-pts) Target (down 5-pts)

Home Entertainment Shopping Amazon (48%) down 3-pts

from December all-time high Apple (22%) also down 3-pts

from Dec all-time high

Surge in Consumer Expectations and Confidence …Consumer Expectations 27% of U.S. respondents

believe the overall direction of economy will improve over next 90 days – up 8-pts since December

While 32% still believe overall direction of U.S. economy will worsen – that’s a major 15-pt improvement

Confidence in Stock Market 28% now say they’re More

Confident in U.S. stock market and 31% Less Confident

An extraordinary 30-pt upswing since last month


Table of Contents

Summary of Key Findings.............................................................................................7

The Findings...................................................................................................................9

(A) Consumer Expectations and Confidence...............................................................9

(B) Overall U.S. Consumer Spending.........................................................................11

(C) Individual Consumer Spending Categories..........................................................13

(D) Fiscal Cliff Issue...................................................................................................15

(E) Overall Retailer Trends.........................................................................................16

(F) Home Entertainment and Online Shopping..........................................................18

(G) Impact of the Economy on Investors....................................................................22

(H) Reasons Given By Consumers Who Are Spending Less ....................................23

ChangeWave Research Methodology........................................................................24

About ChangeWave Research....................................................................................24

About 451 Research.....................................................................................................24


8


The Findings

Introduction: A January ChangeWave survey shows U.S. consumer expectations and confidence surging this month as Americans grow more upbeat about the overall direction of the economy. That said, spending growth is lower this month in comparison to the seasonal uptick we reported in December. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.

In the aftermath of the holidays, consumer electronics spending has slowed this month. Restaurant spending is also registering a seasonal decline.

The January 2-15 survey of 2,385 U.S. consumers shows the fiscal cliff tax resolution earlier this month is causing one-in-three respondents (35%) to say they’ll spend less as a result. Much of this is likely attributable to the 2% pay cut Americans are feeling as the 2010 Social Security payroll tax holiday expires.

(A) A Surge in Consumer Expectations and Confidence

The good news for January is a positive jump in consumer expectations and confidence – both bouncing back from the downticks we had picked up in December.

Consumer Expectations. A total of 27% of respondents think the overall direction of the U.S. economy will improve over the next 90 days, 8-pts better than a month ago. And while 32% still believe it will worsen – that’s a major 15-pt improvement from December.


9

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingIn your opinion, which of the following statements best describes the overall direction of the economy over the next 90 days?


Previous Survey Dec ’12

Previous Survey Nov ‘12

Previous Survey Oct ‘12

Previous Survey Sep ‘12

Previous Survey Jan ‘12

PreviousSurveyDec ‘11

The economy is going to improve over the next 90 days

27% 19% 22% 19% 17% 30% 23%

The economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days

32% 47% 40% 42% 44% 25% 35%

The economy is going to remain the same over the next 90 days

39% 31% 36% 39% 38% 44% 40%

Stock Market Confidence. Similarly, 28% now say they’re More Confident in the stock market than they were 90 days ago – a 12-pt jump since December. Three-in-ten (31%) say they’re Less Confident, but that’s a huge 18-pt improvement from previously. All-told it’s an extraordinary 30-pt upswing since the previous survey.

Are you now more or less confident in the U.S. stock market compared to 90 days ago?








More Confident Than 90 Days Ago

28% 16% 14% 19% 20% 33% 21%

Less Confident Than 90 Days Ago

31% 49% 46% 41% 38% 21% 39%

No Change 37% 29% 35% 35% 39% 42% 36%Don't Know 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4%

Importantly, these are the best readings for consumer expectations and confidence in nine months.


10


(B) Overall U.S. Consumer Spending The consumer picture looks different when it comes to actual spending. One-in-five (22%) U.S. respondents say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – down 5-pts since our December holiday survey. Another 35% say they'll spend less, 3-pts worse than previously.

Would you say your overall spending over the next 90 days will be more than last year, less than last year, or the same as last year?








More Spending Than Last Year

22% 27% 23% 25% 27% 24% 28%

Less Spending Than Last Year

35% 32% 31% 30% 31% 31% 30%

Spending Will Remain the Same as Last Year

41% 40% 43% 43% 40% 43% 41%

Don't Know 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1%

Putting the Findings in Context. As the following chart shows, spending growth is lower this month in the aftermath of the holidays. Note our January consumer surveys in 2011 and 2012 also registered a similar decline in spending growth.


11


On a positive note, if the trend of the previous two years repeats, we can expect more upbeat news starting next month.

We note that the slowdown this month is occurring among lower and middle income households (Less than $150,000.

Current Survey (Jan 2013) – Breakdown by Income Levels

TotalLessThan

$100,000

$100,001-

$150,000

Greater Than

$150,000More Spending Than Last Year 22% 19% 22% 26%Less Spending Than Last Year 35% 36% 33% 33%Spending Will Remain the Same as Last Year

41% 41% 43% 40%


12


(C) Individual Consumer Spending Categories

Which of the following consumer items will you be spending more money on over the next 90 days compared to last year? (Check All That Apply)

Current Survey Jan ’13







Household Repairs/ Improvements

27% 28% 27% 30% 31% 28% 26%

Travel/Vacation 21% 22% 22% 23% 24% 22% 22%Healthcare Services 16% 14% 13% 13% 13% 16% 14%Consumer Electronics 15% 24% 24% 16% 16% 16% 28%Durable Goods for the Home 12% 13% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12%Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment

10% 14% 14% 11% 11% 11% 14%

Children's Services (e.g. camp, education, lessons, other activities)

7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6%

Automobile Purchase 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%Other Services (e.g. adult education, fitness activities)

4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

And which of the following consumer items will you be spending less money on over the next 90 days than last year? (Check All That Apply)








Consumer Electronics 31% 27% 29% 28% 30% 31% 27%Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment

29% 26% 26% 29% 29% 28% 28%

Travel/Vacation 25% 27% 29% 27% 27% 26% 27%Durable Goods for the Home 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 22% 21%Automobile Purchase 20% 21% 20% 19% 19% 21% 21%Household Repairs/ Improvements

14% 16% 15% 14% 16% 15% 15%

Healthcare Services 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%Children's Services (e.g. camp, education, lessons, other activities)

6% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7%

Other Services (e.g. adult education, fitness activities)

6% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7%


13

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingChange in Net Difference Score - Current Survey (Jan 2013) vs. Previous Survey (Dec 2012)

CurrentSurvey

Net Difference

Score(Jan ’13)

PreviousSurvey

Net Difference

Score(Dec ’12)

Change in Net

Difference Score

Healthcare Services +10 +7 +3Children’s Services (e.g. camp, education, lessons, other activities)

+1 -2 +3

Other Services (e.g. adult education, health and fitness activities)

-2 -5 +3

Household Repairs/Improvements +13 +12 +1Automobile Purchase -14 -15 +1Travel/Vacation -4 -5 +1Durable Goods for the Home -11 -10 -1Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment -19 -12 -7Consumer Electronics -16 -3 -13

In the aftermath of the holidays, Consumer Electronics spending has slowed this month – with 15% saying they’ll spend more on electronics going forward and 31% less. While this represents a major 13-pt decline since December, it’s still better than the 16-pt seasonal drop of a year ago.

Restaurant spending is also registering a seasonal decline – down a net 7-pts in January. In other categories, Durable Goods has declined 1-pt since December, but Travel/ Vacation, Autos and Household Repairs are each up 1-pt.

Year-to-Year Comparison of Change in Net Difference Scores: January 2013 vs. January 2012January

2013 Change in

Net Difference

Score(Jan ’13 vs.

Dec ’12)

January 2012

Change in Net

Difference Score

(Jan ’12 vs.Dec ’11)

Healthcare Services +3 +2Household Repairs/Improvements +1 +2Automobile Purchase +1 0Travel/Vacation +1 +1Durable Goods for the Home -1 -2Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment -7 -3Consumer Electronics -13 -16

We note that Healthcare Services has jumped 3-pts this month.


14


(D) Fiscal Cliff Issue Continues to Pose Threat

Previous ChangeWave reports have shown fiscal cliff uncertainty was having a damaging impact on the U.S. consumer economy. But now that Congress has passed a last minute tax deal that at least temporarily averts the fiscal cliff, what if anything has changed?

To find out, we asked consumers how the new tax agreement was impacting their discretionary spending.

On January 1st, Congress reached an agreement addressing key "Fiscal Cliff" tax issues. Thinking about your own discretionary spending over the next 90 days, does this Congressional agreement on taxes make you more likely to increase your discretionary spending, decrease your discretionary spending, or is it having no impact on your discretionary spending over the next 90 days?


More Likely to Decrease Spending for Next 90 Days Because Fiscal Cliff Agreement

35%

More Likely to Increase Spending for Next 90 Days Because of Fiscal Cliff Agreement

4%

No Impact on My Spending for Next 90 Days 58%Don’t Know 4%

Worryingly, 35% say they’re more likely to Decrease spending for the next 90 days because of the Congressional fiscal cliff agreement. Only 4% say Increase.

Clearly, the January 1st agreement hasn’t done much thus far to ease consumer concerns regarding the fiscal cliff. Much of this is likely attributable to the 2% pay cut Americans are feeling as the 2010 Social Security payroll tax holiday expires.

Above and beyond the tax issue, there are other major economic issues that have yet to be addressed – including government spending cuts, the U.S. debt ceiling, and passage of a federal budget.

Bottom line, despite or even possibly because of the January 1st agreement on taxes, consumers say they’re holding back on their actual spending – and the fiscal cliff issue continues to have a negative impact on the consumer economy.


15


(E) Overall Retailer Trends

In the aftermath of the holidays, our January survey shows few signs of momentum among major retailers.

Costco (COST) is down 3-pts from December, although spending growth remains slightly higher than a year ago and it still leads the other major retailers going forward.

Walmart (WMT) is seeing a 2-pt decline in growth this month. It’s now at the exact same level it was a year ago.

Target (TGT) is the biggest decliner of all the major retailers – dropping 5-pts this month. Other retailers that are slowing include Kohl’s (KSS; down 4-pts), Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY; down 4-pts), Macy’s (M; down 3-pts), Sears (SHLD; down 2-pts) and TJ Maxx (TJX; down 2-pts).


16

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingWe want to learn more about how consumers will be spending their shopping dollars over the next 90 days. For each of the following stores, please tell us if you will be spending more money, about the same amount, or less money over the next 90 days compared with the previous 90 days.

MoreMoney

SameAmoun

t ofMoney

LessMoney

NetScore

MonthlyChange

FromDec ‘12

Year-to-Year

ChangeFrom

Jan ‘12

NoMoney

Sam's Club 4% 19% 4% 0 0 +1 64%Dillard's 1% 9% 4% -3 -1 0 76%Nordstrom 2% 14% 6% -4 -1 0 69%K-Mart 1% 15% 7% -6 -1 0 68%JC Penney 1% 20% 9% -8 -1 0 60%BJ's Wholesale Club 1% 6% 2% -1 -2 0 81%Walmart 8% 48% 10% -2 -2 0 26%Bloomingdale's 0% 4% 3% -3 -2 -1 83%Ross 1% 12% 4% -3 -2 -1 73%T.J. Maxx 2% 19% 6% -4 -2 -1 63%Sears 2% 23% 12% -10 -2 -1 54%Costco 10% 36% 6% +4 -3 +1 42%Macy's 4% 27% 11% -7 -3 +1 49%Bed, Bath & Beyond 3% 29% 10% -7 -4 0 50%Kohl's 4% 28% 11% -7 -4 0 48%Target 7% 47% 12% -5 -5 0 26%


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(F) Home Entertainment and Online Shopping

Apple (AAPL) is off 3-pts from its December all-time high in the home entertainment market, with 22% saying they'll buy home entertainment products at Apple over the next 90 days.

Amazon (AMZN) is also down 3-pts from its all-time high last month on the home entertainment retail front. Nonetheless, the 48% who say they’ll shop at Amazon for home entertainment and computer networking products is the second highest we’ve seen.

Best Buy (BBY; 28%; down 2-pts) has suffered its second consecutive drop – and is now showing one of their weakest readings ever.


18

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingHere are the complete results for home entertainment shopping retailers:

Over the next 90 days, which of the following stores do you think you and your family will shop at for home entertainment and computer/ networking products? (Choose No More Than Three)

Current

Survey Jan ‘13







Amazon 48% 51% 47% 45% 44% 46% 47%Best Buy 28% 30% 33% 27% 27% 30% 35%Apple 22% 25% 24% 22% 24% 20% 21%Costco 19% 21% 24% 21% 22% 20% 23%Walmart 11% 12% 12% 12% 11% 13% 12%Staples 8% 9% 7% 9% 9% 10% 9%Fry's Electronics 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8%Newegg 7% 8% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7%eBay 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%Sam's Club 6% 7% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7%Office Depot 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%Target 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5%TigerDirect 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%Micro Center 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%OfficeMax 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%BJ's Wholesale Club 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Buy.com 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%Dell Online 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%FutureShop 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3%Radio Shack 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2%hhgregg 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% NAOther 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%


19

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingOnline Shopping. When we asked consumers the percentage of total retail purchases they’d be making online, they reported online buying would account for 23% of their retail purchases – up from 21% a year ago.

And over the next 90 days, what percentage of your total retail purchases do you think you'll make online?

Online Buying as a Percentage of Total

Retail Purchases

Current SurveyJan ‘13

PreviousSurveyJan ‘12

Consensus Estimate 22.8% 20.6%

We also asked shoppers where they'd be spending their online shopping dollars over the next 90 days:

We want to learn more about how Alliance members will be spending their online shopping dollars over the next 90 days. For each of the following websites, please tell us if you will be spending more money, about the same amount, or less money over the next 90 days compared with the previous 90 days.

MoreMoney

LessMoney

Net Score

SameAmount of

MoneyNo

Money

Amazon.com 18% 13% +5 50% 15%Costco.com 3% 3% 0 16% 67%Samsclub.com 1% 3% -2 5% 78%Yahoo! Shopping 0% 2% -2 4% 80%Sears.com 1% 3% -2 6% 77%Target.com 1% 4% -3 10% 71%Overstock.com 1% 4% -3 6% 75%Walmart.com 1% 5% -4 13% 68%eBay.com 3% 9% -6 24% 52%Best Buy.com 2% 9% -7 14% 63%

With nearly one-in-five consumers (18%) saying they’ll spend more money online at Amazon, the industry leader continues to dwarf all other online retailers.


20

ChangeWave Research: Consumer SpendingWe also took a closer look at Amazon’s Prime subscription service and found two-thirds (67%) of respondents who subscribe say they’re Very Satisfied with their subscription. Another 30% say they’re Somewhat Satisfied.

How satisfied are you with your Amazon Prime subscription?

Amazon PrimePaid

Subscribers

CurrentSurveyJan ‘13

Amazon PrimePaid

SubscribersPreviousSurveyOct ‘12

Very Satisfied 67% 61%

Somewhat Satisfied 30% 36%

Somewhat Unsatisfied 2% 1%

Very Unsatisfied 0% 1%

Don’t Know 1% 2%

Importantly, nine-in-ten (89%) say they’re likely to renew their subscription when it expires (63% Very Likely; 26% Somewhat Likely) – up 5-pts since October.

And how likely are you to renew your Amazon Prime subscription when it expires?

Amazon PrimePaid

SubscribersCurrentSurveyJan ‘13

Amazon PrimePaid

SubscribersPreviousSurveyOct ‘12

Very Likely 63% 60%

Somewhat Likely 26% 24%

Somewhat Unlikely 3% 4%

Very Unlikely 2% 3%

Don’t Know 8% 9%


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(G) Impact of the Economy on Investors

We also asked respondents about their investing plans, and U.S. Stocks (+4; up 6-pts) are registering a net money inflow, as are Non-U.S. Stocks (+7; up 8-pts).

In light of recent events, will you be investing more money or less money going forward in each of the following vehicles?

Here’s the complete breakdown:

More Money

Less Money

Net Score

Change in Net Score

Same Amoun

t of Money

No Money

Non-U.S. Stocks 18% 11% +7 +8 37% 26%U.S. Stocks 19% 15% +4 +6 49% 13%Mutual Funds 6% 7% -1 +4 37% 40%Real Estate 10% 3% +7 +2 23% 52%ETFs 11% 7% +4 +2 33% 39%Currencies 3% 2% +1 +2 11% 71%Equity Options 8% 6% +2 +1 19% 58%Index Options 4% 5% -1 +1 13% 67%High-Yield/ Income/ Dividend Focused Vehicles

15% 4% +11 0 28% 42%

Other Commodities 7% 4% +3 -1 18% 58%Short-Side Investments (stocks, ETFs, etc.)

7% 5% +2 -1 14% 61%

CDs (Certificates of Deposit) 1% 5% -4 -1 13% 68%Bonds 4% 10% -6 -1 24% 52%Money Market Funds 4% 11% -7 -2 34% 40%Going to Cash 13% 9% +4 -3 35% 31%Gold 12% 4% +8 -4 22% 51%


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(H) Reasons Given By Consumers Who Are Spending Less

Our January survey shows a jump in the percentage of consumers spending less because they’re Saving More Money (31%) – up 4-pts since December. Reducing Debt (29%; up 2-pts) has also registered an uptick as a reason for why consumers say they are spending less.

Here’s the complete breakdown of reasons given by consumers who are spending less:

For those who will be spending less than last year, what are the most important reasons why? (Choose No More Than Three)

Reasons Given By Respondents Spending Less


Previous SurveyDec ’12

Previous SurveyNov ‘12

Previous SurveyOct ‘12

Previous SurveySep ‘12

PreviousSurveyJan ‘12


Cost of Living/InflationInflation/Increase in Cost of Living 32% 34% 37% 39% 35% 31% 32%Higher Energy Costs 12% 11% 19% 22% 22% 14% 14%Medical Expenses 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 13%Education Expenses 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6%Trying to Improve Personal FinancesReducing Debt 29% 27% 27% 28% 28% 29% 28%Saving More Money 31% 27% 25% 28% 28% 27% 32%Investing More Money 9% 7% 7% 8% 7% 9% 8%Big Ticket Purchases/ExpensesHome Improvement Expenses 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10%Recent Purchase of Big Ticket Item(s) 10% 8% 7% 7% 9% 12% 8%Purchased New Home 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Mortgage/Home Equity CostsMortgage Payment Increased 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4%Home Equity Loan Payment Increased 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%OtherReduced Income 37% 37% 38% 40% 38% 38% 40%Value of Home Has Decreased 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 11% 11%Traveling Less 9% 11% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9%


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ChangeWave Research MethodologyThis report presents the findings of a recent ChangeWave survey on consumer spending patterns. The survey was conducted between January 2 - 15, 2013. A total of 2,385 U.S. respondents participated in the survey.

ChangeWave's proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system is based upon the systematic gathering of valuable business and investment information directly over the Internet from accredited members of its research network.

The business and investment intelligence provided by ChangeWave provides a real-time view of companies, technologies, and consumer and business trends in key market sectors, along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy – well in advance of other available sources.

About ChangeWave ResearchChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, is a survey research firm that identifies and quantifies change in corporate buying & business trends, telecom trends, and consumer spending & electronics trends.

The ChangeWave Research Network is a group of 25,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals – as well as early adopter consumers – who work in leading companies of select industries. ChangeWave surveys its Network members weekly on a range of business and consumer topics, and converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports. ChangeWave delivers its products and services on the Web at www.ChangeWaveResearch.com.

451 Research, LLC, including its ChangeWave Research service, does not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this report. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.

About 451 Research451 Research, a division of The 451 Group, is a leading global analyst and data company focused on the business of enterprise IT innovation. Clients of 451 Research – at end-user, service-provider, vendor, and investor organizations – rely on 451 Research’s insight through a range of syndicated research and advisory services to support both strategic and tactical decision-making. For additional information on 451 Research, go to: 451research.com.

For More Information:ChangeWave Research Telephone: 301-250-23637101 Wisconsin Ave. Fax: 240-200-3988Suite 1301 www.ChangeWaveResearch.comBethesda, MD 20814 [email protected]


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january consumer spending report · web viewwalmart (down 2-pts) tj maxx (down 2-pts) sears (down...

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