january 7–26, 2020 · 2020-07-01 · lithuania. lithuanian farmers and greens union. labour...
TRANSCRIPT
Public Opinion Poll: Lithuania
January 7–26, 2020
Detailed Methodology
2
• The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by Norstat Eesti AS.
• Data was collected between January 7 and January 26, 2020 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.
• The sample comprised 1,007 residents of Lithuania, aged 18 and older. The sample is representative of the adult population of Lithuania by NUTS-3 region (Apskritys/Counties) and urbanicity, in accordance with the 2011 Census of Lithuania.
• The survey’s response rate was 51 percent. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1points at the 95 percent confidence level.
• A multistage probability sampling method was used, employing a random route method forhousehold selection and the Kish grid for respondent selection.
• Stage 1: PPS stratification across ten NUTS-3 regions.• Stage 2: PPS stratification by urbanicity.• Stage 3: Random allocation of primary sampling units across settlements.
• The sample is weighted for county, urbanicity, gender, age, nationality, and educational attainment level based on the results of the 2011 Census.
• Interviews were conducted in Lithuanian.
• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
• Cited bases are weighted.
Opinions of the National and Regional Context
In general, would you say that Lithuania is headed in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
52%
39%
9%
In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer
4
What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous answers)
35%10%
7%7%
4%4%
4%3%3%3%3%3%
2%2%2%2%2%
1%1%1%1%
2%1%1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Economy - cost of living, high pricesEconomy - unemployment
CorruptionGovernment/Politics
PensionsPoverty
Economy - other/generalHealthcareEducationMigration
Brain DrainEconomy - small business opportunities/access to loans
Low wagesInternal conflictsSocial inequality
Social services/ benefitsLack of unityEnvironment
External conflicts/ WarInsecurity
Crime/Public SafetyOther
No problemDon't know / Refused to answer
5
*Responses receiving less than 1% are collapsed into Other.
How about at the European level? What is the biggest single problem facing Europe today, the one that you are most concerned about?
(Spontaneous answers)17%
9%7%
7%6%
5%4%4%
4%3%3%
2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
3%4%
14%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
MigrationTerrorismInsecurity
Economy - cost of living, high pricesInternal conflicts
External conflicts/ WarEnvironment
Natural disastersEconomy - other/general
CorruptionEconomy - unemployment
Illicit drugsCrime/Public Safety
Government/PoliticsSocial services/ benefits
PensionsHealthcare
PovertyLack of unity
Brain DrainOther
No problemDon't know / Refused to answer
6
*Responses receiving less than 1% are collapsed into Other.
How would you describe the current economic situation of your household?
6%
68%
23%
3%<1%
Very Good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer
7
How likely or unlikely are ordinary people able to influence decisions made in Lithuania?
7%
27%
40%
26%
1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Very Likely
Somewhat likely
Somewhat unlikely
Very unlikely
Don't know/Refused to answer
8
How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country’s adult population, including women, young adults,
minorities, and people with disabilities, are included in political decision-making?
9
1%
1%
7%
34%
57%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Don't know/Refused to answer
Very unimportant
Somewhat unimportant
Somewhat important
Very important
39%
56%
5%
Yes
No
Don't know/Refused to answer
45%
53%
2%
Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in Lithuania or not?
10
Total population
Young people (18-29)Base: n=165
Did you vote in the Lithuanian parliamentary elections in 2016?
71%
28%
1%
Yes
No
Don't know/Refusedto answer
11
25%
17%
11%
5%
5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
<1%
28%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union
Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania
Labour Party
Liberal Movement
Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- Christian FamiliesAlliance
Party Order and Justice
Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals)
Lithuanian Green Party
The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K.Krivickas
The Way of Courage
Don't know / Refused to answer
For which party did you vote?(Respondents who voted in the 2016 elections, n=716)
12
If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in this election?
13
3%
12%
11%
17%
58%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Don't know/Refused to answer
I wouldn't vote for sure
I probably wouldn't vote
I would probably vote
I would vote for sure
If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote?
14
27%
20%
14%
10%
6%
6%
5%
5%
3%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Homeland Union- LithuanianChristian Democrats
Social Democratic Party ofLithuania
Lithuanian Farmers and GreensUnion
Labour Party
Party Order and Justice
The Anti-Corruption Coalition ofN. Puteikis and K. Krivickas
Liberal Movement
Electoral Action of Poles inLithuania- Christian Families…
Lithuanian Freedom Union(liberals)
Lithuanian People's Party
Lithuanian Green Party
Lithuanian List
The Way of Courage
12%
9%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
17%
40%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Homeland Union- LithuanianChristian Democrats
Social Democratic Party ofLithuania
Lithuanian Farmers and GreensUnion
Labour Party
Party Order and Justice
The Anti-Corruption Coalition ofN. Puteikis and K. Krivickas
Liberal Movement
Electoral Action of Poles inLithuania- Christian Families…
Lithuanian Freedom Union(liberals)
Lithuanian People's Party
Lithuanian Green Party
Lithuanian List
The Way of Courage
Would not vote
Don't know/Refused to answer
Decided voters, n=432
*Decided voters are those who named a valid political party.
If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote?
15
29%
19%
14%
10%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
Homeland Union- LithuanianChristian Democrats
Social Democratic Party ofLithuania
Lithuanian Farmers and GreensUnion
Labour Party
Party Order and Justice
Electoral Action of Poles inLithuania- Christian Families…
Liberal Movement
The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N.Puteikis and K. Krivickas
Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals)
Lithuanian People's Party
Lithuanian Green Party
The Way of Courage
Lithuanian List
15%10%
7%5%
3%3%3%2%2%1%<1%<1%<1%
4%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Homeland Union- LithuanianChristian Democrats
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union
Labour Party
Party Order and Justice
Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania-Christian Families Alliance
Liberal Movement
The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N.Puteikis and K. Krivickas
Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals)
Lithuanian People's Party
Lithuanian Green Party
The Way of Courage
Lithuanian List
Would not vote
Don't know/Refused to answer
Decided and likely voters, n=389
*Decided and likely voters are those who would or probably would vote, and who also named a valid political party.
Likely voters, n=752
75%
23%3%
I would/probably would voteI wouldn't/probably wouldn't voteDon't know/Refused to answer
If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in this election?
Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for Lithuania or not?
65%
19%
7%
9%Yes, it is the best possibleform of government forour country.
No, there are other formsof government that couldbe equally good for ourcountry.
No, there are other formsof government that arebetter than democracy.
Don't know/Refused toanswer
16
Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should
provide other alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?
17
4%
28%
20%
34%
15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Don't know/Refused to answer
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should provide other
alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?
18
15%
25%
34%
36%
20%
14%
28%
19%
4%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
All Respondents
Youth 18-29n=165
Strongly agree Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
Don't know/Refused to answer
Media Preferences
From which source do you get most of your daily social and political news?
1%
2%
2%
4%
14%
32%
45%
Don't know/Refused to answer
Major newspapers, such as Lietuvos rytas, Versložinios, Respublika, Kauno diena
Offline sources, such as interactions with family,friends, or colleagues
Social media such as Facebook, Twitter,Instagram, LinkedIn
Commercial television and radio broadcasters,such as TV3, LNK, M-1, RC
Online news sources, such as online newspaperswebsites and blogs
Public television and radio broadcasters, such asLRT, LRT radio
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
20
How reliable or unreliable do you find the following sources of news:
21
23%
13%
8%
3%
3%
2%
58%
56%
37%
16%
21%
10%
13%
23%
15%
28%
34%
16%
3%
4%
4%
21%
13%
13%
4%
4%
36%
32%
29%
59%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
National Public TV/ Radio
National commercial TV/ Radio
Western TV/Radio
Russian TV/Radio
VK.ru
Very reliable Somewhat reliable Somewhat unreliable Very unreliable Don't know/Refused to answer
Do you access news in Russian?
64%
34%
2%
Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer
22
27%
15%
12%
5%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
12%
38%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Delfi
Vesti.ru
RT
RIA Novosti
Baltnews
Gazeta.ru
Rossia RTR
Rubaltic
Kurier
Lenta.ru
Meduza
Other
Don't know/Refused to answer
If so, can you name some sources of news you use in Russian? (Up to 3 answers)
23
(Respondents who access news in Russian: n=646, Local list provided)
Do you access news in any other languages?
40%
58%
2%
Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer
24
17%14%
13%12%
9%7%
3%3%
2%2%2%1%1%
1%1%1%1%
5%30%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
BBCSources of news in English
The Internet and social mediaCNN
Sources of news in PolishTV channels
TV PoloniaEuronews
RTLDW
RadioSources of news in German
Sources of news in UkranianDiscovery
Belarus 24News portals online
Kurier WileńskiOther
Don't know/Refused to answer
If so, can you name some sources of news you use in other languages? (Up to 3 answers)
25
(Respondents who access news in any other language: n=399, Top three spontaneous answers)
*Responses receiving less than 1% are collapsed into Other.
Do you support or oppose blocking television and radio broadcasts from the Russian Federation into Lithuania?
26
7%
14%
25%
49%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Always, I believe all broadcastsfrom the Russian Federationshould be blocked.
Mostly, I believe that mostbroadcasts from the RussianFederation should be blocked.
Rarely, I believe that only a smallsection of broadcasts from theRussian Federation should beblocked.
Never, I believe that nobroadcasts from the RussianFederation should be blocked.
Don't know/Refused to answer
How much do you trust or distrust the national media’s accuracy in its coverage of the following topics?
27
17%
16%
16%
13%
7%
61%
60%
63%
62%
43%
16%
18%
16%
17%
31%
2%
3%
3%
3%
11% 1%
4%
2%
3%
5%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Local community socialand political news
National social and political news
European social and political news
International (outside Europe) socialand political news
Russian social and political news
Fully trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrustFully distrust There is no coverage Don't know/Refused to answer
Values
On a scale from 1 to 5, does Lithuania have more in common with Western Europe or with Russia, in the following areas. 1 would mean Lithuania is totally like Western Europe, while 5 would mean totally
like Russia.
29
25%
23%
16%
15%
40%
39%
37%
32%
28%
29%
33%
33%
6%
6%
11%
14%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Culture and intellectual life
Morality and values
Employment and standard of living
Healthcare, pensions, andother social benefits
Totally like Western Europe (1) 2 3 4 Totally like Russia (5) Don't know/Refused to answer
And, for each of these aspects, would you like it to have more in common with Western Europe or Russia?
30
83%
80%
72%
69%
7%
9%
16%
18%
10%
11%
12%
13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Culture and intellectual life
Morality and values
Employment and standard of living
Healthcare, pensions, andother social benefits
Western Europe Russia Don't know/Refused to answer
Vladimir Putin’s Russia has tried to portray itself as a defender of Christendom and traditional European values. What is your
opinion of this view of Russia?
31
8%
44%
27%
21%
It is true — on this issue at least, Russia has taken the side of traditional European values.
It is not really true — Russia is just cynically pretending to stand up for traditional European values while pursuing its own interests.
It is not true at all — it demonstrates Russia's rejection of modern Western values.
Don't know/Refused to answer
Which of the following statements comes closest to your view of Russia and Putin as you consider these changes in European
culture?
32
21%
40%
22%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45% Russia and Putin can be alliesagainst an EU that is pushing usto abandon our values.
I wish Russia could be an ally,but I don't trust Putin. Somecooperation would be possible,but I would be very careful.
Regardless of my disagreementwith some EU policies, I don'tthink Russia should have anyinfluence over how EU policiesare made.
Don't know/Refused to answer
(For those who answered that it is true that Russia is defending European values, n=84)
What should be the role of the Russian language in Lithuania today?
3%
33%
40%
22%
2% It should be an officiallanguage in addition toLithuanian language.
It should be arecognized officialminority language.
It should have anunofficial role, but nota formal one.
It should have no roleat all.
Don't know/Refused toanswer
33
Do you think Russian language is a basis of discrimination in Lithuania?
34
3%
10%
17%
68%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Yes, Russian language is a basis ofdiscrimination.
Sometimes Russian language can be abasis of dicrimination.
Russian language is not a basis ofdiscrimination in Lithuania but thelanguage you speak sometimes does
make things easier or harder.
No, Russian language is not a basis ofdiscrimination in Lithuania.
Don't know/Refused to answer
Foreign Relations and Foreign Influence
How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Lithuania’s interests are best served by maintaining
strong relations with:
36
64%
55%
51%
34%
14%
14%
33%
40%
41%
51%
47%
44%
1%
3%
4%
10%
23%
23%
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
12%
11%
2%
3%
4%
3%
4%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
European Union
Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark)
NATO
United States
Russia
China
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
Why do you think our country’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia?
37
34%
18%
8%
8%
7%
5%
4%
2%
11%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Russia is close and dangerous - we must keepon good terms to protect ourselves.
Russia is our biggest export market.
Russians are our brothers.
Russia is our main energy provider.
Russia is the biggest investor in Lithuania.
Russia is the only country capable of standingup to the West.
Russia is our protector throughout history.
Russia is our true ally and guarantor ofnational borders and sovereignty.
Other
Don't know/Refused to answer
(Among those who strongly agree that Lithuania should maintain strong relations with Russia, n=141)
In your opinion, what has the European Union’s impact on the following issues been?
38
31%
26%
25%
24%
20%
17%
13%
52%
51%
53%
50%
46%
46%
32%
13%
17%
16%
18%
23%
26%
20%
1%
2%
1%
3%
6%
5%
22%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
1%
2%
7%
3%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
European stability/security
Democratic governance and rule of law
International influence
Political and socialindependence and
sovereignty
Local businesses
Traditional values andway of life
Prices of goods and services
Very positive Somewhat positive Neutral Somewhat negative Very negative Don't know/Refused to answer
Which statement is closest to your opinion?
39
25%
42%
19%
8%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
The United States is a reliable partner forEuropean security, and its presence in Europe
contributes to peace and security.
The United States is a reliable partner forEuropean security, but European countries
should not be so reliant on the US for defense.
The United States has become an unreliablepartner for European security, and I doubt it
would defend our country in an open conflict.
The United States should not play a role inEuropean security, and in fact its presence in
Europe increases tensions and insecurity.
Don't know/Refused to answer
In your opinion, what is the biggest security threat facing our country today?
40
23%
19%
18%
14%
7%
4%
4%
1%
1%
1%
8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Organized crime/drugs/trafficking
Collapse of national political/financial system
Climate change
Non-military foreign interference (cyber-attacks,political/economic pressure)
Natural disasters
Open military conflict between countries/War
Regional tensions/Ethnic and religious conflict
Terrorism
Other
None
Don't know/Refused to answer
What is your personal view of NATO?
41
35%
49%
9%
2%5%
Very positive
Somewhat positive
Somewhat negative
Very negative
Don't know/Refused toanswer
Regardless of your view on NATO as an organization, which statement comes closest to your feelings about foreign NATO
troops being stationed in Lithuania?
42
71%
15%
9%
1%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
I am happy they are here ensuring our security.
They were necessary at the beginning, but nowthey are having a negative impact on our society
and should leave.
They should have never been here, they makeus less secure.
I didn't know there were foreign soldiers here.
Don't know/Refused to answer
Which statement comes closest to your opinion about NATO military exercises in the region?
43
51%
25%
10%
10%
4%They are integral to maintain NATO'sreadiness to defend our country andshould continue.
They are necessary to maintain NATO'sreadiness to defend our country, but theyshould be less frequent.
They may be necessary from time to timebut they add to regional destabilization.
They are not necessary and serve only toaggrevate Russia.
Don't know/Refused to answer
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Ukraine is a part of Russia’s sphere of influence; thus Russia has a right to
have a role in decisions made in Ukraine.
44
2%
9%
17%
66%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know/Refused to answer
64%
20%
16%
Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer
45
Lithuania is one of a few NATO members meeting its commitment to spend at least 2 percent of its GDP on defense, while nations like Germany do not. Should Germany increase
its defense spending to at least 2 percent of its GDP?
Which statement comes closest to your opinion about why Germany should not increase its defense spending to 2
percent?
46
76%
12%
5%
4%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
That's their business. Germany can spendwhat they want on defense.
It could set off an arms race in Europe.
A larger German military could be athreat to our security.
Given their history, I would prefer theydidn't increase the size of their military.
Don't know/Refused to answer
(For those who stated that Germany should not increase its defense spending to at least 2 percent of GDP, n=203)
Demographics
Demographics
45%
55%
16%21%
32% 31%
15%
51%
34%
24%
56%
21%
<1%
9%
23%18%
29%
7%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%M
ale
Fem
ale
18-2
9
30-4
4
45-6
0
61+
Elem
enta
ry o
r le
ss
Seco
ndar
y
Colle
ge o
r un
iver
sity
Sing
le,
not
livin
g w
ith
a pa
rtne
r
Mar
ried
, liv
ing
wit
h a
part
ner
Divo
rced
and
oth
er (
used
to
bem
arri
ed)
No
inco
me
Up
to 3
00 E
UR
301
to 6
00 E
UR
601
to 9
00 E
UR
901
to 2
000
EUR
Ove
r 20
01 E
UR
No
resp
onse
/Ref
used
to
answ
er
GENDER AGE EDUCATION MARITALSTATUS
TOTAL MONTHLY HOUSEHOLDINCOME
48
Demographics
49
4%
20%
10%8%
2%1% 2% 2%
<1% 1% 2% 2%3%
2% 2%
28%
10%
1%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Uns
kille
d m
anua
l wor
ker
Sem
iski
lled
and
skill
ed m
anua
l wor
ker
Whi
te-c
olla
r (a
dmin
istr
atio
n, e
tc.)
Hig
hly
qual
ifie
d in
telle
ctua
l (la
wye
r, do
ctor
, te
ache
r…)
Mid
dle
exec
utiv
e m
anag
er
Top
exec
utiv
e m
anag
er
Hig
hly
qual
ifie
d in
telle
ctua
l who
is s
elf-
empl
oyed
(la
wye
r, do
ctor
, te
ache
r…)
Ow
ns a
sm
all c
ompa
ny,
wor
ksho
p, e
tc.
Ow
ns a
big
com
pany
, st
ockh
olde
r
Farm
er,
fish
erm
an
Earn
s in
som
e ot
her
way
Pupi
l
Stud
ent
Hou
sew
ife
Mat
erni
ty le
ave
Pens
ione
r
Une
mpl
oyed
(cu
rren
tly)
Oth
er
EMPLOYED SELF-EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED
Demographics
50
100%
<1% <1% <1%
86%
6% 5%1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 2%
98%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Citi
zen
Non
-cit
izen
pas
spor
t ho
lder
Non
-cit
izen
and
non
-pas
spor
t ho
lder
Refu
sed
to a
nsw
er
Lith
uani
an
Pole
Russ
ian
Ukr
aini
an
Belo
russ
ian
Latv
ian
Oth
er
Refu
sed
to a
nsw
er Yes
No
Citizenship Status Nationality Military Service
Demographics
51
100%
79%
39%
19%
10%
3% 3% 4%<1%
89%
8%3%
<1% <1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lith
uani
an
Russ
ian
Engl
ish
Polis
h
Ger
man
Latv
ian
Ukr
ania
n
Oth
er
Latv
ian
Lith
uani
an
Russ
ian
Polis
h
Engl
ish
Ukr
ania
n
Ger
man
Oth
er
Language spoken Language at home
Demographics
52
2%
76%
12%
<1%9%
1%9%
59%
19%13%
1%7%
18%
59%
16%
1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ort
hodo
x
Cath
olic
Chri
stia
n (o
ther
)
Mus
lim
Non
e
Don'
t kn
ow/R
efus
ed t
o an
swer
Very
rel
igio
us
Som
ewha
t re
ligio
us
Som
ewha
t ir
relig
ious
Very
irre
ligio
us
Don'
t kn
ow/R
efus
ed t
o an
swer
Ever
y W
eek
Occ
assi
onal
ly/o
nce
or t
wic
e a
mon
th
Rare
ly /
on
Maj
or R
elig
ious
Hol
iday
s
Nev
er
Don'
t kn
ow/R
efus
ed t
o an
swer
What is your religious affiliation? To what extend do you consideryourself religious or not?
How often do you go to orattend other religious services?
www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls
Center for Insights in Survey Research202.408.9450 | [email protected]
https://norstatgroup.com/