january 23, 2012 3t overview rsm 2115 kevin stolarick, phd research director
TRANSCRIPT
January 23, 2012
3T OverviewRSM 2115
Kevin Stolarick, PhD
Research Director
Understanding Economic Activity
Regional (Smith, Marshall)
Understanding Economic Activity
Regional (Smith, Marshall)
Industrial(Porter)
Understanding Economic Activity
Regional (Smith, Marshall)
Industrial(Porter)
Education, Skills(Glaeser)
Understanding Economic Activity
Regional (Smith, Marshall)
Industrial(Porter)
Education, Skills(Glaeser)
Occupational(Florida)
Understanding Economic Activity
Regional (Smith, Marshall)
Industrial(Porter)
Education, Skills(Glaeser)
Occupational(Florida)
BOTH
Why Occupations?
• Among all people who either work in the IT industry or work in an IT occupation (or both):–50.2% work in an IT occupation but not in the IT industry–25.7% work in the IT industry but aren't in an IT occupation–Only 24.1% work in an IT occupation in the IT industry
IT Occupations
IT Industry
What is it about Pittsburgh?
The “4Ts”
Technology
Regional Growth
The “4Ts”
Talent
Technology
Regional Growth
The “4Ts”
Talent
Tolerance(Inclusiveness)
Technology
Regional Growth
The “4Ts”
Talent
Tolerance(Inclusiveness)
Technology
Territory Assets(Amenities)
Regional Growth
The “4Ts”
Talent
Tolerance(Inclusiveness)
Technology
Territory Assets(Amenities)
Regional Growth
and Prosperity
The Rise of the Creative Class
The Rise of the Creative Class
What is the Creative Class ?
What You Do (Job Occupation)
vs.
Where You Work (Industry)
10 Year Job Growth Estimate• Working Class 10%• Service Class 14%• Creative Class 20%
Who Works in Creative Class ?
Creative Class Economy: TAPE
T = Technology and R&D Innovation
A = Arts and Culture
P = Professional and Managerial
E = Educating and Training
18
U.S. Creative Economy
Knowledge Service Working
Workers (Talent) 40,379,520 59,769,270 31,949,350
% of Workforce 30.5% 45.1% 24.1%
% of Wages 48.8% 30.4% 20.6%
Who are the 40,000,000?
Occupations Workers Salary ($B)
TComputer and mathematical 3,076,200 213.0
Architecture and engineering 2,430,250 160.9
Life, physical, and social science 1,231,070 73.4
Healthcare practitioners and technical 6,713,780 416.5
A Arts, design, entertainment, and media 1,727,380 79.6
PManagement 5,892,900 541.7
Business and financial operations 5,826,140 349.6
Legal 976,740 83.4
Sales and related occupations 4,298,620 147.7
E Education, training, and library occupations 8,206,440 371.9
Total 40,379,520 2,437.7
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U.S. Creative Growth
Occupations Growth (2004-2014)
New Jobs(000; by 2014)
TComputer and mathematical 30.7% 1,389
Architecture and engineering 17.1% 876
Life, physical, and social science 16.4% 531
Healthcare practitioners and technical 25.8% 3,047
A Arts, design, entertainment, and media 14.9% 851
PManagement 11.3% 2,757
Business and financial operations 19.1% 2,163
Legal 15.9% 336
Sales and related occupations 9.6% 408
E Education, training, and library occupations 20.0% 3,558
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Workforce Structure - Classes
Service Creative Working
Canada 7,068,19546.2%
4,317,12528.2%
3,154,29020.6%
Ontario 2,700,56345.6%
1,748,25829.5%
1,239,06520.9%
Toronto 1,145,00045.3%
840,71833.3%
472,83518.7%
Employment Structure of the Labour Market, 2008
Creative Service Working0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
28%
46%
21%
42%
35%
20%
Canada
Employment Wages
Employment Structure of the Labour Market, 2008
Creative Service Working0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
30%
46%
21%
49%
29%23%
Ontario
Employment Wages
Employment Structure of the Labour Market, 2008
Creative Service Working0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
33%
45%
19%
54%
29%
17%
Toronto
Employment Wages
25
Share of creativity-oriented jobs is increasing
26
- Creative jobs are more common in larger cities- Eastern Ontario somewhat higher mainly due to Ottawa
Creative Ontario
34.7%
37.5%
37.0%
43.9%
26.4%
26.6%
26.0%
27.8%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
Ontario
Eastern Ontario
Ontario
Eastern Ontario
Ontario
Eastern Ontario
Ontario
Eastern Ontario
TO
TA
LC
MA
CA
RU
RA
LPercent of labour force
27
Creative Jobs as a Percent of Total Employment
28
Service Class Jobs as a Percent of Total Employment
29
Working Class Jobs as a Percent of Total Employment
30
Agricultural Jobs as a Percent of Total Employment
31
32
Nearly 80 percent of jobs in Canada are in services industries
Employment by Industry in Canada from 1976 to 2006
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
6,376.6
Service Sector
12,498.4
3,370.9
Goods Producing Sector 3,985.9Em
plo
ymen
t (x
1,00
0)
Output by Industry in Canada from 1976 to 2005
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
114.5
Goods Producing Sector
429.8
72.8
Service Sector
849.2
GD
P (
bil
lio
ns)
Unemployment is higher in routine-oriented occupations especially in early 90s recession
-35
The “4Ts”
Talent
Tolerance(Inclusiveness)
Technology
Territory Assets(Amenities)
Regional Growth
and Prosperity
Technology“A high technology base is both a necessary condition for and a result of a region having a strong creative economy.
Being known as a "high-tech" region helps to attract the creative workforce, which, in turn, generates new technologies making the region even more high-tech.”
Technology• High Technology:–Concentration of high-tech
companies–Growth of high-tech companies
• Innovation:–# of patented innovations per
1,000 people–Growth in patented innovations
Technology
-1.000
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00%
% Creative
Pat
ents
per
1,0
00
Technology
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00%
% Creative
Tec
h P
ole
(lo
gg
ed)
Talent“The concentration of people in the Creative and Super Creative Classes, has a stronger relationship with economic growth.
Creative people don't just cluster where the jobs are. They cluster in places that are centers of creativity and also where they like to live.
Places need a people climate -- or a creativity climate -- as well as a business climate.”
Talent
• Talent Index (Bachelors Degree and above)
• % Super Creative (scientists,engineers, artists, musicians, designers)
• % Creative Workers(super creative + professionals)
Talent
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%
% Super Creative
% C
reat
ive
Talent
8.0%
13.0%
18.0%
23.0%
28.0%
33.0%
38.0%
15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00%
% Creative
Tal
ent
Ind
ex
Tolerance/Inclusiveness“Diversity has become a politically charged buzzword. To some it is an ideal and rallying cry, to others a Trojan-horse concept that has brought us affirmative action and other liberal abominations.
Creative Class people use the word often, but not to press any political hot buttons. Diversity is simply something they value in all its manifestations.”
Tolerance/Inclusiveness
• Melting Pot Index (% foreign born)
• Gay/Lesbian Index (% gay & lesbian population)
• Boho Index (% culturally creative)
• % Nonwhite & Non-black• % Interracial Marriage• Composite Diversity Index (CDI)
Tolerance/Inclusiveness
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
Melting Pot Index
% C
reat
ive
Tolerance/Inclusiveness
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
-0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60
Gay Index (logged)
% C
reat
ive
Tolerance/Inclusiveness
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
Bohemian Index
% C
reat
ive
Territory Assets“What Creative people look for in communities are abundant high-quality amenities and experiences, an openness to diversity of all kinds, and above all else the opportunity to validate their identities as creative people.
Places are valued for authenticity and uniqueness … Authenticity comes from several aspects of a community … It comes from the mix … Authenticity is the opposite of generic.”
Territory Assets (Quality of Place)• Economy/Growth• Housing• Culture• Climate• Education• Healthcare• Recreation• Dis-amenities
– Crime, Weather
• Transportation– Connectedness
Creativity Index“The key to understanding the new economic geography of creativity and its effects on economic outcomes lies in the 3T's of economic development: Technology, Talent, and Tolerance.
Each is a necessary but by itself an insufficient condition: To attract creative people, generate innovation and stimulate economic growth, a place must have all three.”
Creativity Index
• Technology
• Tolerance (Inclusiveness)
• Talent
LEADING INDICATOR
The “4Ts”
Talent
Tolerance(Inclusiveness)
Technology
Territory Assets(Amenities)
Regional Growth
and Prosperity
The Current Picture
56
“Urban” Policy
Urban policy
is not
social policy.
57
“Urban” Policy
Urban policy
is not
social policy.
Urban policy
is
economic policy.
58
“Urban” Policy
Urban policy
is not
social policy.
Urban policy
is
economic policy.
What happens when you’re not “urban”?
What’s your economic policy?
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“Urban” Policy
What about “non-urban” areas??
•Think Big•Look Big•Use a shotgun, not a rifle• (Super secret strategy #4)
60
Think Big
Connecting the Disconnected
61
62
Look Big
63
Use a Shotgun not a Rifle
64
(Super Secret Strategy #4)
