janforecast
TRANSCRIPT
Pivot Points
Quarterly ForecastViv Govender
Table of Contents
Sector Pick
2012
2013
GDP
Inflation and Rand
Interest Rates
Conclusion
Contents
03
2012
- Strong Market Performance- We did better ( refer to fund fact sheet)- Even in strong market, those that pick correctly
do better
04
2013
-Issues ‘solved’ – Euro Crisis, China Slowdown, US Unemplyment
-Maybe not
05
GDP- 3.2% for 2013, up from 2.5% for 2012- Been lowering forecast however- Dependant on no ‘Black Swan’ events- Consumer sector also in doubt
06
Inflation and Rand
-Averaging 5.5% for year-Very dependant on Rand-Average Rand Value R9.15/$ for year-Current account pressures
07
Interest Rates
-Expect no change for year-If there is a change it will be a cut-Earliest we can expect a rate hike is mid 2014
08
Sector Pick
09
Conclusion- Broad Overview- Still have to pick individual stocks and
instruments- Must remain flexible. Just because we don’t
predict an event does not mean we shouldn’t react to it
Thank you
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