james kofman

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November 8, 2011 James E. Kofman Vice Chairman Cormark Securities Inc.

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Page 1: James Kofman

November 8, 2011

James E. KofmanVice ChairmanCormark Securities Inc.

Page 2: James Kofman

2

Canadian Capital Markets Performance

Relative Performance of Key Indices

The Canadian market has shown continued strong performance

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Jan-03 Feb-04 Mar-05 Apr-06 May-07 Jun-08 Jul-09 Sep-10 Oct-11

Inde

x Le

vel

S&P/TSX (US$) S&P/TSX (C$) S&P 500 Euro STOXX 50

188.7%

85.0%

38.7%

(6.9%)

Source: Bloomberg and Capital IQ

Page 3: James Kofman

3

TSX Outperformance vs. Global Markets

Total TSX Performance to MSCI World Index (US$)

The Canadian market has outperformed the world indices in 7 of the last 10 years

0.2%

-7.4%-5.9%

7.1%

-9.0%

-1.3%

16.0%

-4.2%

-31.4%

14.6%16.4%

0.1%

7.8%

20.2%

8.3%

18.4%

-3.8%

19.5%

-5.2%

24.9%

12.5%

-3.2%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD

TS

X O

utpe

rfor

man

ce (

%)

Source: Bloomberg

Page 4: James Kofman

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-01 Feb-03 Apr-05 Jun-07 Aug-09 Oct-11

VIX

In

dex

Market Volatility

VIX Index S&P Daily Declines of 1.5% or More

37

49

13

42

4

19

55

36

21

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTDN

umbe

r of

Day

s

Market volatility has increased significantly amid credit concerns

9/11

Accounting scandals

Uncertainty re: Q4 results

Iraq war

Significant initial increase in oil

prices

Economic concerns

Credit concerns

Source: Bloomberg

Page 5: James Kofman

5

M&A Activity and Share Price Movement

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD

M&

A D

eal V

olum

e (U

S$

billi

ons)

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

S&

P 5

00 I

ndex

North American M&A Deal Volume

S&P 500 Index

Source: Bloomberg (Criteria: deal size > $100 million, target company in Canada or US, transactions pending or completed)

Page 6: James Kofman

6

Current Environment

Canadian M&A Activity Global M&A Activity

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

YT

D

Val

ue (

US

$ bi

llion

s)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

YT

D

Val

ue (

US

$ bi

llion

s)

M&A volumes surged to record levels in 2007 but have since retreated given weaker credit supply

Source: Bloomberg

Page 7: James Kofman

7

Segmented Analysis

Global M&A Activity (YTD)Canadian M&A Activity (YTD)

Mining22%

Energy19%

Utilities15%

Financial13%

Real Estate8%

Other23%

Energy14%

Financials10%

Pharma & Healthcare

9%

Telecom7%

Other41%

Mining5% Real Estate

7%

Utilities7%

US41%

U.K.5%

China5%

Other33%

Canada4%

Japan4%

Australia4%

France4%

Source: Bloomberg (based on deal value, and country and industry of target)

Page 8: James Kofman

8

TSX New Issue Activity

TSX & TSXV - Equity Financing Proceeds TSX & TSXV – YTD Equity Financing Proceeds by Sector

Source: FP InfomartNote: As at Sept. 30, 2011; Excludes structured products

Source: TMX Group; as at Sept. 30, 2011

$50.7 $52.3$49.7

$59.3

$40.9

$65.1

$54.0

$39.8

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD

(C$

billi

ons)

42%

26%

24%

3%3%

2% Materials

Energy

Financials

Consumer Discretionary

Information Technology

Other