james kofman
DESCRIPTION
Brought to you by The Globe and Mail Report on Small Business in conjunction with Achilles Media, Small Business Summit is a one-day event, geared to entrepreneurs, to kick-start your small or medium enterprise to the next level.TRANSCRIPT
November 8, 2011
James E. KofmanVice ChairmanCormark Securities Inc.
2
Canadian Capital Markets Performance
Relative Performance of Key Indices
The Canadian market has shown continued strong performance
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Jan-03 Feb-04 Mar-05 Apr-06 May-07 Jun-08 Jul-09 Sep-10 Oct-11
Inde
x Le
vel
S&P/TSX (US$) S&P/TSX (C$) S&P 500 Euro STOXX 50
188.7%
85.0%
38.7%
(6.9%)
Source: Bloomberg and Capital IQ
3
TSX Outperformance vs. Global Markets
Total TSX Performance to MSCI World Index (US$)
The Canadian market has outperformed the world indices in 7 of the last 10 years
0.2%
-7.4%-5.9%
7.1%
-9.0%
-1.3%
16.0%
-4.2%
-31.4%
14.6%16.4%
0.1%
7.8%
20.2%
8.3%
18.4%
-3.8%
19.5%
-5.2%
24.9%
12.5%
-3.2%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD
TS
X O
utpe
rfor
man
ce (
%)
Source: Bloomberg
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-01 Feb-03 Apr-05 Jun-07 Aug-09 Oct-11
VIX
In
dex
Market Volatility
VIX Index S&P Daily Declines of 1.5% or More
37
49
13
42
4
19
55
36
21
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTDN
umbe
r of
Day
s
Market volatility has increased significantly amid credit concerns
9/11
Accounting scandals
Uncertainty re: Q4 results
Iraq war
Significant initial increase in oil
prices
Economic concerns
Credit concerns
Source: Bloomberg
5
M&A Activity and Share Price Movement
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD
M&
A D
eal V
olum
e (U
S$
billi
ons)
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
S&
P 5
00 I
ndex
North American M&A Deal Volume
S&P 500 Index
Source: Bloomberg (Criteria: deal size > $100 million, target company in Canada or US, transactions pending or completed)
6
Current Environment
Canadian M&A Activity Global M&A Activity
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YT
D
Val
ue (
US
$ bi
llion
s)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YT
D
Val
ue (
US
$ bi
llion
s)
M&A volumes surged to record levels in 2007 but have since retreated given weaker credit supply
Source: Bloomberg
7
Segmented Analysis
Global M&A Activity (YTD)Canadian M&A Activity (YTD)
Mining22%
Energy19%
Utilities15%
Financial13%
Real Estate8%
Other23%
Energy14%
Financials10%
Pharma & Healthcare
9%
Telecom7%
Other41%
Mining5% Real Estate
7%
Utilities7%
US41%
U.K.5%
China5%
Other33%
Canada4%
Japan4%
Australia4%
France4%
Source: Bloomberg (based on deal value, and country and industry of target)
8
TSX New Issue Activity
TSX & TSXV - Equity Financing Proceeds TSX & TSXV – YTD Equity Financing Proceeds by Sector
Source: FP InfomartNote: As at Sept. 30, 2011; Excludes structured products
Source: TMX Group; as at Sept. 30, 2011
$50.7 $52.3$49.7
$59.3
$40.9
$65.1
$54.0
$39.8
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD
(C$
billi
ons)
42%
26%
24%
3%3%
2% Materials
Energy
Financials
Consumer Discretionary
Information Technology
Other